2009: A Big Step To Our Next World Series

[southsider2k5]

He had a couple high-walk outings in Charlotte too. It has been a long season for him and he's constantly been under the pressure that comes from promotion after promotion. You can see he's got the control, the composure, and the stuff to get it done up here. I have no lack of faith in him all.

 

As far as getting innings, why? If he can help the 2010 Sox then isn't that better than helping the 2011 Sox? It's not like Hudson won't be able to work on things during side sessions while in the pen, and being there actually gives him an even better shot in the future because he'll get to know MLB hitters that way. Besides, it's not like Hudson can't continue to improve the consistency of his secondary stuff as a fulltime starter in 2011. It's not like he's going to lose anything in the meantime.

 

The question for me isn't if he could help in 2010, it is would he help more in 2010 right away, than he would help in later 2010 through 2016 with some more development under his belt. If you are talking about a guy like Carlos Torres who doesn't have a high ceiling it is one thing, but a guy who could make a large impact as a starter is another story. You take a special level of care and work for a guy like that.

[bmags]

The question for me isn't if he could help in 2010, it is would he help more in 2010 right away, than he would help in later 2010 through 2016 with some more development under his belt. If you are talking about a guy like Carlos Torres who doesn't have a high ceiling it is one thing, but a guy who could make a large impact as a starter is another story. You take a special level of care and work for a guy like that.

 

I agree. Who knows how his arm will respond to this year, and if he has to learn how to work through that, better it be at AAA

[WCSox]

Are we still talking about Chris Getz and Jayson Nix here? I'm consistently shocked by White Sox fan's ability to give Chris Getz the benefit of the doubt. That his OPB will show MASSIVE improvement, that his average will dramatically raise, that he will somehow develop power, and play league-aver defense. This isn’t Chris Getz. Not yet, maybe someday, but not yet. It’s a lot to swallow. The platoon works, because Nix does have power, he does have a good eye, and he does play stellar D. but given full-playing time both will be exposed, unless they make huge leaps and bounds. And honestly, Getz has a much bigger leap to take then Nix.

 

Getz is never going to be a power guy, so the argument that he needs to develop it is silly. What he needs to develop is the ability to take more walks and raise his OBP by about 30 points (not quite a "massive improvement") so that he can lead off. His value as a #9 hitter is substantially less.

 

The argument that Nix is further along than Getz also doesn't make any sense. If his strengths are power and defense, his .716 OPS and his 12 errors in 60 starts at 2B and SS don't make much of a case for him.

 

I do agree that platooning these two next year makes a ton of sense, as neither has really made a case for himself to be in the starting lineup.

Edited October 5, 2009 by WCSox

[Jordan4life_2007]

The question for me isn't if he could help in 2010, it is would he help more in 2010 right away, than he would help in later 2010 through 2016 with some more development under his belt. If you are talking about a guy like Carlos Torres who doesn't have a high ceiling it is one thing, but a guy who could make a large impact as a starter is another story. You take a special level of care and work for a guy like that.

 

Couldn't agree more. I'd like to see the Sox draft/develop a SP that actually sticks with the club before, I don't know, 2025.

[ThunderBolt]

Getz is never going to be a power guy, so the argument that he needs to develop it is silly. What he needs to develop is the ability to take more walks and raise his OBP by about 30 points (not quite a "massive improvement") so that he can lead off. His value as a #9 hitter is substantially less.

 

The argument that Nix is further along than Getz also doesn't make any sense. If his strengths are power and defense, his .716 OPS and his 12 errors in 60 starts at 2B and SS don't make much of a case for him.

 

I do agree that platooning these two next year makes a ton of sense, as neither has really made a case for himself to be in the starting lineup.

A 30 point improvement is OPB is massive. Nothing in Getzs' minor league background suggest such an improvement is possible. I'd put Getz, with a year under his belt, as a candidate to have an OPB around .333. Still not great if we expect him to anchor an offense. I take issues with using errors as the end-all-be-all stats on defenders. Especially, considering the massvie range disparity that other numbers suggest exist between Getz and Nix. That being said, Nix clearly struggles against RHP'S, but would not be out of place in the 9 hole.

 

[soxbsbllvr]

Hudson, if he has control issues, is actually trying to be too fine, trying to get the strikeout vs groundout. Watched him yesterday and he was painting the black but getting the rookie pitcher strike zone as opposed to the veteran pitcher strike zone. I think when he gets a cutter developed and works his change up he will be around for a while.

[WCSox]

A 30 point improvement is OPB is massive. Nothing in Getzs' minor league background suggest such an improvement is possible.

 

No, it's not. Did you even look at Getz's minor league numbers? OBP of .401 in rookie ball, OBP of .382 in AA in 2007, and an OBP of .366 in Charlotte last year.

 

I'd put Getz, with a year under his belt, as a candidate to have an OPB around .333. Still not great if we expect him to anchor an offense.

 

Being a competent leadoff hitter and "anchor[ing] an offense" are not the same thing.

 

I'd expect about .335 for next season, so we're in agreement. But .350 isn't out of the question, especially a year down the road. If he weren't making contact with the ball, I'd be less optimistic about his future, but all he has to do is learn to take more walks.

 

I take issues with using errors as the end-all-be-all stats on defenders. Especially, considering the massvie range disparity that other numbers suggest exist between Getz and Nix.

 

I take issue with complete reliance on defensive range metrics. The same metrics that claim that Nix is better than Getz also say that Alexei was better at SS than 2B. They're dubious at best, and often contradictory. Agreed that nobody should rely completely on errors, but I never claimed that they should. Still, 12 errors in 60 starts is pretty bad and, despite Nix's obvious defensive talent, it's difficult to claim that he's been a "plus defender" this year.

Edited October 5, 2009 by WCSox

[bmags]

No, it's not. Did you even look at Getz's minor league numbers? OBP of .401 in rookie ball, OBP of .382 in AA in 2007, and an OBP of .366 in Charlotte last year.

 

Just what I was about to write. He improved his OBP by 60 points in AA from 2006 to 2007. Dropped to .362 in AAA. There's reason for hope that at the same level his OBP would improve next year. Obviously from AA to AAA control improves. Same for majors.

[The Ginger Kid]

meh...i thought we were a shoo in for 2006 and look what happened. We'll have to hope that Beckham avoids the proverbial sophomore slump and that Kenny finds a way to bolster the bullpen with talent...real talent.

[ThunderBolt]

No, it's not. Did you even look at Getz's minor league numbers? OBP of .401 in rookie ball, OBP of .382 in AA in 2007, and an OBP of .366 in Charlotte last year.

 

 

 

Being a competent leadoff hitter and "anchor[ing] an offense" are not the same thing.

 

I'd expect about .335 for next season, so we're in agreement. But .350 isn't out of the question, especially a year down the road. If he weren't making contact with the ball, I'd be less optimistic about his future, but all he has to do is learn to take more walks.

 

to claim that he's been a "plus defender" this year.

What you’re describing is a league-average lead-off man. That's not ideal. Also, minor league OBP numbers don't tend to correlate directly with major league numbers. They can, however, point in the right direction. Getzs' OPB numbers (as to be expected with a player going through the Minors) fall every year.

Rookie Ball: .401

AA: .382

AAA: .366

MLB: .323

 

I'd say .340 is about the best we can hope for Getz. I don't think he or Nix are the long-term answer. Nor do i think Getz sucks. I just think Nix is the better player.

 

 

[WCSox]

What your describing is a league-average lead-off man. That's not ideal.

 

LOL, it's a hell of a lot better than what we currently have. Except for Pods, who has a terrible SB%, can't play defense, and is likely on his way out.

 

Also, minor league OBP numbers don't tend to correlate directly with major league numbesr. They point in the right direction, but you can generally, lop off about 20 points. furthremore, Getzs'z OPB numbers (as to be expected with a player going through the Minors) fall every year.

Rookie Ball: .401

AA: .382

AAA: .366

MLB: .323

 

This may come as a surprise to you, but players can improve their OBP in the majors. Ray Durham put up a .309 OBP in his rookie season (which consisted of more major league ABs than Getz currently has).

 

I'd say .340 is about the best we can hope for Getz. I don't think he or Nix are the long-term answer. Nor do i think Getz sucks. I just think Nix is the better player.

 

Of course you do, despite the way that his numbers are trending and what common sense tells you.

Edited October 5, 2009 by WCSox

[bmags]

Unless we can find a clear upgrade that fits into our lineup well (top of the order guy) I'm fine with the platoon at 2nd. It's our outfield/1b/DH I want KW to figure out.

[ThunderBolt]

LOL, it's a hell of a lot better than what we currently have. Except for Pods, who has a terrible SB%, can't play defense, and is likely on his way out.

 

 

 

This may come as a surprise to you, but players can improve their OBP in the majors. Ray Durham put up a .309 OBP in his rookie season (which consisted of more major league ABs than Getz currently has).

 

 

 

Of course you do, despite the way that his numbers are trending and what common sense tells you.

Chris Getz is not Ray Durham. NOT EVEN CLOSE. Chris Getz will benefit for years from having a grinder label. Durham was a damn good athlete, who managed 13 major league season despite having bum knees for the last half of them. Durham was a HUGE power threat for a 2b, his OPB improved, becasue pitchers walked him, out of respect and fear of that power. Chris Getz will never earn this kind of respect. You hang a pitch to Durham you might just see it leave the park. Getz takes bad pitches, and strokes doubles and singles. Durham was inconsistent in the field, he fell off significantly over his career, but he had a lot of the same strengths that Nix has. Nix has far more range then Getz, better hands and better instincts. The numbers back me up.

Edited October 5, 2009 by Thunderbolt

[bmags]

K, but, I mean it was his rookie year. You won't allow any adjustment period for this kid?

[ThunderBolt]

K, but, I mean it was his rookie year. You won't allow any adjustment period for this kid?

I said earlier that i think he could manage an OPB around .333. It seems to fall in line with his career averages. That's league-average, i don' think it really works in the future leadoff man arguements favor.

[WCSox]

Chris Getz is not Ray Durham. NOT EVEN CLOSE. Chris Getz will benefit for years from having a grinder label. Durham was a damn good athlete, who managed 13 major league season despite having bum knees for the last half of them. Durham was a HUGE power threat for a 2b, his OPB improved, becasue pitchers walked him, out of respect and fear of that power. Chris Getz will never earn this kind of respect. You hang a pitch to Durham you might just see it leave the park. Getz takes bad pitches, and strokes doubles and singles. Durham was no sluch at 2b either, he fell off significantly over his career, but he had a lot of the same strengths that Nix has.

 

Getz is a solid contact hitter and a much better base stealer than Durham ever was. Agreed that Durham was a better overall ball player, but I was using his major league adjustment to outline a concept, not to equate the two.

 

Durham never walked more than 75 times in a season, so I don't know what you're talking about. Pitchers did not walk Durham "out of respect and fear" with Frank hitting 3rd in the lineup. Durham's average OPS in Chicago was also well below .800, (.772, weighing each season equally), so let's try to not confuse him with Chase Utley. Robin Ventura drew a lot more walks in the middle of the lineup than Ray did at the top.

Edited October 5, 2009 by WCSox

[bmags]

I said earlier that i think he could manage an OPB around .333. It seems to fall in line with his career averages. That's league-average, i don' think it really works in the future leadoff man arguements favor.

 

How does that fall in line with his career averages again?

[ThunderBolt]

How does that fall in line with his career averages again?

His numbers tend to shift about 20 points between levels.

Rookie Ball: .401

AA: .382

AAA: .366

MLB: .323

Getz Minor league average OPB was. 362. With progression I'd put his ultimate OPB trend to around .342. But given his lack of power, which I don't think will translate to the majors, and certainly influenced his higher OPB in AAA, I think that will slumps to around .330.

I'm fairly confident that Getzs' eye at the plate will improve next year, that's one of the things I like about Getz. He has a really great approach, hopefully, the results (and walks will come along with that).

Edited October 5, 2009 by Thunderbolt

[bmags]

In Getz first stint in AA his OBP was in the .320s, the next full year it was .380. You never really got to see his adjustment after a full year, in the same competition. So just because his OBP dropped, doesn't mean it's not a dynamic number.