Rogers suggests trading for Fielder

[knightni]

...and Fielder is - an nonathletic-looking, soon to be DH - due for a giant Boras payday who is stuck in the NL.

[elgonzo4sox]

We played in the worst division in baseball and came up with a worse record than the Cubs. I fail to see how we were obviously better. I could only imagine our record if we faced the Cards 18 times.

 

 

The AL Central is the worst division in the AL, as proven by the head-to-head records of AL Central teams versus the AL East (76-91) and AL West (78-96).

 

The 2009 head-to-head record of the AL Central versus the NL Central was 43-38.

 

Now, which is the worst division in major league baseball?

 

 

[Steve9347]

The suggestion that Jenks would be a bonus to the Brewers is improbable.

[Kalapse]

...and Fielder is - an nonathletic-looking, soon to be DH - due for a giant Boras payday who is stuck in the NL.

Who's one of the best hitters in the game, under team control for 2 years and the Brewers in no way HAVE to trade him. There's no reason to believe that he'll fall apart within the next two years so he has incredible trade value.

[BigSqwert]

The AL Central is the worst division in the AL, as proven by the head-to-head records of AL Central teams versus the AL East (76-91) and AL West (78-96).

 

The 2009 head-to-head record of the AL Central versus the NL Central was 43-38.

 

Now, which is the worst division in major league baseball?

The AL Central

[knightni]

The AL Central is the worst division in the AL, as proven by the head-to-head records of AL Central teams versus the AL East (76-91) and AL West (78-96).

 

The 2009 head-to-head record of the AL Central versus the NL Central was 43-38.

 

Now, which is the worst division in major league baseball?

/Your signature pictures are too large.

[Balta1701]

...and Fielder is - an nonathletic-looking, soon to be DH - due for a giant Boras payday who is stuck in the NL.

But...Milwaukee doesn't have to trade him unless they're under severe salary constraints (And if they are, why are they spending $8 million on a closer?). 2 years of additional shots at the NL Central/Wild Card + 2 draft picks is a hell of a lot more valuable than the offer you gave.

[elgonzo4sox]

The AL Central

 

Since when does losing more games mean you are better than your opponent?

 

 

[Balta1701]

The AL Central

let me try asking this another way. The Cubs went 83-78 this year. The White Sox went 78-83. Where would the White Sox's record have been in your opinion in the NL Central? Would that have been worth 5 more games?

[knightni]

He was the only player in the MLB to play every game this year.

I'm not denying your points. I'm just looking for ways to make a trade happen, but honestly I don't see it.

[BigSqwert]

Since when does losing more games mean you are better than your opponent?

Aha. Back to the reason why the Cubs outrank the Sox.

[Balta1701]

I'm not denying your points. I'm just looking for ways to make a trade happen, but honestly I don't see it.

On that, I agree...although pulling off trades that we don't expect is exactly what our GM is really good at.

[BigSqwert]

let me try asking this another way. The Cubs went 83-78 this year. The White Sox went 78-83. Where would the White Sox's record have been in your opinion in the NL Central? Would that have been worth 5 more games?

We don't know the answer to that. Just because there are some bad teams in the NL Central doesn't mean we would have played better. Look at how we played against the Indians and Royals.

[knightni]

I'd sooner package Floyd to the Nats for Dunn.

 

Floyd might like pitching near his home (Baltimore).

[Balta1701]

I'd sooner package Floyd to the Nats for Dunn.

 

Floyd might like pitching near his home (Baltimore).

For a guy on a 1 year deal, giving up a pitcher signed for multiple years? No thanks. Fair value for Dunn right now would IMO be something like Ely + Rutherford, 2 guys from the upper levels of our system who would be better than 2 random draft picks but who haven't yet proven anything in the bigs.

[knightni]

For a guy on a 1 year deal, giving up a pitcher signed for multiple years? No thanks. Fair value for Dunn right now would IMO be something like Ely + Rutherford, 2 guys from the upper levels of our system who would be better than 2 random draft picks but who haven't yet proven anything in the bigs.

You're missing your true GM calling, Balta.

[Balta1701]

You're missing your true GM calling, Balta.

Bah, not exactly. The Nats probably wouldn't go for that deal, because they'd be losing money in the short term by losing a marketable player. They ought to push hard for Hudson. But if I were them and all I cared about was building a winning franchise, I'd send my scouts out and try to get 3 upper level minor league players for him, at least 1 of which was a current starting pitcher. If I were the Sox, I'd start with an offer of those 2, and then try to add in something else as a sweetener after they pushed back. they could have Fields, but they'd need to put him at 1b since they have a decent 3b; that really doesn't help them. They might have interest in Link or Nunez, but that's why you rely on scouts; if you think either of those guys could take over your closer's spot, steal them.

 

Edit: of course, that all depends on what a scout thinks of someone like Ely also. I'm still not quite sure what to make of him. But if I'm the Nats, if I think he can be a #3 level starter in the bigs, that's what I want to shoot for.

[elgonzo4sox]

let me try asking this another way. The Cubs went 83-78 this year. The White Sox went 78-83. Where would the White Sox's record have been in your opinion in the NL Central? Would that have been worth 5 more games?

 

One correction: Sox finished at 79-83, which is 4 less wins than the Cubs' 83.

 

AL Central teams were 43-38 versus NL Central, for a .531 win percentage.

 

AL Central teams were 47-43 versus the entire NL, for a .522 win percentage.

 

AL Central teams were 334-386 versus AL teams, for a .464 win percentage.

 

If you play in the NL Central, you not only play the NL Central teams a lot, but also the other NL teams.

 

Sox were a slightly above-average AL Central team this year (.488 win percentage versus the AL Central average win percentage of .470). That's .018 points. So, on average, they would win .531 + .018 = .549 versus the NL Central, and .522 + .018 = .540 versus the NL (unfortunately, the sample size of AL Central teams playing NL teams other than the NL Central is so small this year). Teams play about half their games in their division, so the Sox theoretical win percentage would be in between the .549 and .540. Call it .545. That's 88 wins, if they were in the NL Central.

 

Of course, the main flaw in this analysis is that if the Sox were in the NL Central, they would have played down to the level of their competition in what truly was the worst division in major league baseball this year. There is less pressure to improve, when you are doing well or even mediocre versus inferior competition.

[BigSqwert]

One correction: Sox finished at 79-83, which is 4 less wins than the Cubs' 83.

 

AL Central teams were 43-38 versus NL Central, for a .531 win percentage.

 

AL Central teams were 47-43 versus the entire NL, for a .522 win percentage.

 

AL Central teams were 334-386 versus AL teams, for a .464 win percentage.

 

If you play in the NL Central, you not only play the NL Central teams a lot, but also the other NL teams.

 

Sox were a slightly above-average AL Central team this year (.488 win percentage versus the AL Central average win percentage of .470). That's .018 points. So, on average, they would win .531 + .018 = .549 versus the NL Central, and .522 + .018 = .540 versus the NL (unfortunately, the sample size of AL Central teams playing NL teams other than the NL Central is so small this year). Teams play about half their games in their division, so the Sox theoretical win percentage would be in between the .549 and .540. Call it .545. That's 88 wins, if they were in the NL Central.

 

Of course, the main flaw in this analysis is that if the Sox were in the NL Central, they would have played down to the level of their competition in what truly was the worst division in major league baseball this year. There is less pressure to improve, when you are doing well or even mediocre versus inferior competition.

 

You spent way too much time trying to prove something to me that I ultimately could care less about.