Insider Rumor Mill

[RockRaines]

I'd rather take a chance on a younger player that has fallen out of favor on his team like Conor Jackson. Our pitching is good enough to hold us afloat through some growing pains in the beginning of the season.

[WCSox]

Every player wants as much money as they can get. And yet, the Sox still have a team, and still sign players to contracts.

 

And yet, many players sign for less than what they can get (Buehrle, for example). If Abreu is going to test the FA market (as this news suggests), there will probably be a bidding war over him. It seems unlikely that Kenny will be willing to over-pay for Abreu, who is past his prime anyway.

 

[League]

I'd rather take a chance on a younger player that has fallen out of favor on his team like Conor Jackson. Our pitching is good enough to hold us afloat through some growing pains in the beginning of the season.

Maybe Kelly Johnson? IIRC he was a great defender in left before the Braves moved him to second.

[southsider2k5]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/base...gels/index.html

 

Abreu rejected a 2 year 16m extension from the Angels, so there's your starting point

 

With all due respect, is he stupid? Did he learn nothing from spending all of last winter unemployed? No one is giving him more than that.

[iamshack]

With all due respect, is he stupid? Did he learn nothing from spending all of last winter unemployed? No one is giving him more than that.

 

I think he'll get a higher offer just from the Angels. My guess is he wants 2/$20 or 3/$30.

[Chisoxfn]

I'd rather take a chance on a younger player that has fallen out of favor on his team like Conor Jackson. Our pitching is good enough to hold us afloat through some growing pains in the beginning of the season.

I'm curious to see what the Sox do with Jenks and Konerko. To me those are the two guys the club could move to free up quite a bit of payroll and allow for some more flexibility. The problem is I'm not quite sure the chips the Sox would receive in return would be very beneficial and than you have to ask the question, could I spend the money saved better or not and I'm not so sure.

 

But I do expect the Sox to try everything they can to move Jenks/Konerko/Linebrink and I believe a guy like Connor Jackson is someone the Sox would target. In general I look at them targeting guys who have had a good season or two, are coming off a down year, but have good tools and skills and they'll take a shot on em.

 

On a sidenote, when it comes to Connor Jackson, does anyone know if he is 100%. I know he missed practically the whole season with Pneumonia. But I'd love to put Jackson in our lineup. He's a pretty safe bet to hit .290-.300 with a .360+ OBP, solid power, solid doubles, etc.

 

Nothing flashy, but just a good overall hitter who would be a great bat to have in the lower part of the order (6 or 7).

[Chisoxfn]

Could Andrew Miller be a guy you try to buy? I don't know if the Marlins would be ready but he hasn't exactly lit it up for Florida since going there in the Miggy trade. He's still very young and has a very live arm though so I'm sure it wouldn't be easy to get him, but if the Marlins wanted to buy a closer for some reason (probably completely unrealistic) or if somehow they were just a 3rd team in a Jenks trade, I wouldn't be opposed to a deal centered around Miller and another prospect on the Marlins (with Jenks going to Florida or a 3rd team).

 

Probably a complete video game trade, but what the hell, it is the off-season.

[WCSox]

I'm curious to see what the Sox do with Jenks and Konerko. To me those are the two guys the club could move to free up quite a bit of payroll and allow for some more flexibility. The problem is I'm not quite sure the chips the Sox would receive in return would be very beneficial and than you have to ask the question, could I spend the money saved better or not and I'm not so sure.

 

But I do expect the Sox to try everything they can to move Jenks/Konerko/Linebrink and I believe a guy like Connor Jackson is someone the Sox would target. In general I look at them targeting guys who have had a good season or two, are coming off a down year, but have good tools and skills and they'll take a shot on em.

 

On a sidenote, when it comes to Connor Jackson, does anyone know if he is 100%. I know he missed practically the whole season with Pneumonia. But I'd love to put Jackson in our lineup. He's a pretty safe bet to hit .290-.300 with a .360+ OBP, solid power, solid doubles, etc.

 

Nothing flashy, but just a good overall hitter who would be a great bat to have in the lower part of the order (6 or 7).

 

I don't see the Sox dealing Konerko. At least not right now. Not only is Connor Jackson something of a question mark, he's a step down from Paulie, and dealing Konerko isn't going to help sell season ticket packages.

 

Then again, if the Sox are in the crapper in July, all bets are off.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Would anyone else make this deal: Scott Linebrink and a prospect to the Reds for Willy Taveras? I was thinking about ways to unload Linebrink without eating salary and still saving money in the process (i.e. not taking on a roughly equal or larger contract), and this was the only thing I thought of that might make sense for both sides.

 

Why for us:

Taveras is only signed for 2010 at $4M. We gain $1M to spend on 2010 while getting out of Linebrink's 2011 contract (most important). Taveras can be a backup CF, basically a Wise replacement and 5th OF. We can take the $1M saved and bring back Kotsay. That would mean that we'd basically be trading Linebrink for our 4th and 5th OF in 2010 while getting out of Linebrink's 2011 commitment. The risk on our end is that Ozzie plays Taveras all the time, but maybe Kenny could pull Ozzie aside and talk to him about that.

 

Why for the Reds:

The Reds have to be considering just eating Taveras' 2010 salary as it is and releasing him. For $1M more in 2010, they get a shot at a reliever with Linebrink so they're not just eating salary. The risk is all in the $5.5M owed to Linebrink in 2011, but they've been known to overpay for relievers in the past. The Sox would throw in a prospect (nobody all that great however, maybe Nunez or something) to make the 2011 part less frightening.

 

Thoughts?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Could Andrew Miller be a guy you try to buy? I don't know if the Marlins would be ready but he hasn't exactly lit it up for Florida since going there in the Miggy trade. He's still very young and has a very live arm though so I'm sure it wouldn't be easy to get him, but if the Marlins wanted to buy a closer for some reason (probably completely unrealistic) or if somehow they were just a 3rd team in a Jenks trade, I wouldn't be opposed to a deal centered around Miller and another prospect on the Marlins (with Jenks going to Florida or a 3rd team).

 

Probably a complete video game trade, but what the hell, it is the off-season.

That would be great value for Jenks IMO but it's probably unlikely. I've been suggesting Cody Ross due to the salary difference and talent-wise I think that would be closer to Jenks' value after arbitration than Miller. Miller, although I never really liked him, is still a cheap, young power arm from the left side and quite valuable as a result. If I were the Marlins I wouldn't do that deal.

[Chisoxfn]

Unless the Sox think Taveras could start, I don't think I do that deal. The Sox pen was awful last year, but Linebrink is healthy and while he sucked and makes too much, he has been a very good reliever most of his career (as recently as a season ago with the Sox) so I'd be hard pressed to dump him if we weren't getting either good payroll relief or a player that we valued a bit.

 

Bottom line I see more upside in keeping Linebrink than going with Taveras, unless of course Sox brass thinks of Taveras as there leadoff hitter (and honestly, I hope that isn't the case).

[WCSox]

Unless the Sox think Taveras could start, I don't think I do that deal. The Sox pen was awful last year, but Linebrink is healthy and while he sucked and makes too much, he has been a very good reliever most of his career (as recently as a season ago with the Sox) so I'd be hard pressed to dump him if we weren't getting either good payroll relief or a player that we valued a bit.

 

Bottom line I see more upside in keeping Linebrink than going with Taveras, unless of course Sox brass thinks of Taveras as there leadoff hitter (and honestly, I hope that isn't the case).

 

I agree with this. It would be nice to have Taveras hit 9th and play CF/LF, but not at that price and not at the further weakening of our already-bad bullpen. On the other hand, if Taveras is released, signing him on the cheap might be a decent backup plan.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Unless the Sox think Taveras could start, I don't think I do that deal. The Sox pen was awful last year, but Linebrink is healthy and while he sucked and makes too much, he has been a very good reliever most of his career (as recently as a season ago with the Sox) so I'd be hard pressed to dump him if we weren't getting either good payroll relief or a player that we valued a bit.

 

Bottom line I see more upside in keeping Linebrink than going with Taveras, unless of course Sox brass thinks of Taveras as there leadoff hitter (and honestly, I hope that isn't the case).

The problem with Linebrink though is that he really fades in the second half when we need him the most. Honestly, if there was any way in the world that I could get out from Linebrink's 2011 salary without raising payroll in 2010 I'd do it.

 

I agree though that Linebrink has a ton more upside, but how many years in a row has he faded like this? And the thing is, he'll go out there throwing 95 and have bite on his splitter, but he gets everything up. It's like as soon as he loses confidence his entire season is over. It's the mental aspect and the fatigue aspect that make me want him gone more than anything, although I am pretty confident he'll help us in the first half of 2010 because his track record says that is likely.

[WCSox]

The problem with Linebrink though is that he really fades in the second half when we need him the most. Honestly, if there was any way in the world that I could get out from Linebrink's 2011 salary without raising payroll in 2010 I'd do it.

 

I agree though that Linebrink has a ton more upside, but how many years in a row has he faded like this? And the thing is, he'll go out there throwing 95 and have bite on his splitter, but he gets everything up. It's like as soon as he loses confidence his entire season is over. It's the mental aspect and the fatigue aspect that make me want him gone more than anything, although I am pretty confident he'll help us in the first half of 2010 because his track record says that is likely.

 

Linebrink faded in 2008 because of a shoulder injury. He faded in 2009 because of command, but was still throwing in the mid-90's. So, it doesn't appear to be a long-term physical problem, and I have a difficult time believing that a veteran with a highly-successful past has a habitual "mental fatigue" problem.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I agree with this. It would be nice to have Taveras hit 9th and play CF/LF, but not at that price and not at the further weakening of our already-bad bullpen. On the other hand, if Taveras is released, signing him on the cheap might be a decent backup plan.

To be clear though, I don't want Taveras at all. The only reason I made the suggestion is because he's the one contract I thought of that might make sense in a Linebrink deal. I just want to see us get out of as much of that contract as we can.

[WCSox]

To be clear though, I don't want Taveras at all. The only reason I made the suggestion is because he's the one contract I thought of that might make sense in a Linebrink deal. I just want to see us get out of as much of that contract as we can.

 

If the Sox really wanted to move Linebrink, it wouldn't be a bad idea. Taveras is just two years removed from a really good season, and it's fathomable that he could exceed expectations again.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Linebrink faded in 2008 because of a shoulder injury. He faded in 2009 because of command, but was still throwing in the mid-90's. So, it doesn't appear to be a long-term physical problem, and I have a difficult time believing that a veteran with a highly-successful past has a habitual "mental fatigue" problem.

First half:

2009: 32.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

2008: 38 IP, 2.37 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

2007: 39.1 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

2006: 42.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 0.94 WHIP

 

Second half:

2009: 23.1 IP, 8.49 ERA, 2.19 WHIP

2008: 8.1 IP, 9.72 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

2007: 31 IP, 5.23 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

2006: 33 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.58 WHIP

 

You have to go back to 2005 to find the last time Linebrink had a good second half. He's had excuses every year, but 4 straight seasons looks like a theme here.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

If the Sox really wanted to move Linebrink, it wouldn't be a bad idea. Taveras is just two years removed from a really good season, and it's fathomable that he could exceed expectations again.

Agree, but IMO it would have to be a 2009 Pods-type situation, where someone gets hurt, Taveras steps in, and he keeps his playing time by performing well enough to earn it. After two straight bad years I wouldn't give him a job or anything.

[NorthSideSox72]

First half:

2009: 32.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

2008: 38 IP, 2.37 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

2007: 39.1 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

2006: 42.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 0.94 WHIP

 

Second half:

2009: 23.1 IP, 8.49 ERA, 2.19 WHIP

2008: 8.1 IP, 9.72 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

2007: 31 IP, 5.23 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

2006: 33 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.58 WHIP

 

You have to go back to 2005 to find the last time Linebrink had a good second half. He's had excuses every year, but 4 straight seasons looks like a theme here.

Maybe we keep him, then at the deadline next year trade him to someone desperate for a reliever. That would be extracting max value.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Maybe we keep him, then at the deadline next year trade him to someone desperate for a reliever. That would be extracting max value.

That would be a beautiful thing to see.

[NorthSideSox72]

That would be a beautiful thing to see.

Also works well with the fact that it gives the relievers in AA and AAA to show what they have for a couple months, so you can see if one bubbles to the top and you can plug them in at that point. You will probably have to do that anyway during the season.

 

[WCSox]

First half:

2009: 32.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

2008: 38 IP, 2.37 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

2007: 39.1 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

2006: 42.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 0.94 WHIP

 

Second half:

2009: 23.1 IP, 8.49 ERA, 2.19 WHIP

2008: 8.1 IP, 9.72 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

2007: 31 IP, 5.23 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

2006: 33 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.58 WHIP

 

You have to go back to 2005 to find the last time Linebrink had a good second half. He's had excuses every year, but 4 straight seasons looks like a theme here.

 

He got traded to the Brewers halfway through 2007, and that probably didn't help. No idea why he he went from stud-to-dud the prior year, though.

 

My best guess is that he's had shoulder problems for years and it finally became so bad last year that he couldn't pitch through the pain. I'd be interested in seeing his first- and second-half velocities over the past four seasons.

 

I've never really understood Linebrink. Back in March, he said that he didn't know if his shoulder would ever be 100% again. He had a average-to-mediocre first half, and then completely lost his command... but was still routinely hitting 94 on the gun. I hope for the best, but have the sinking feeling that we'll end up releasing him next December.

 

[RockRaines]

Maybe Kelly Johnson? IIRC he was a great defender in left before the Braves moved him to second.

I like Kelly Johnson a ton. I had him on my fantasy team before he decided to tank. His year this year may have just been growing pains.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

He got traded to the Brewers halfway through 2007, and that probably didn't help. No idea why he he went from stud-to-dud the prior year, though.

 

My best guess is that he's had shoulder problems for years and it finally became so bad last year that he couldn't pitch through the pain. I'd be interested in seeing his first- and second-half velocities over the past four seasons.

 

I've never really understood Linebrink. Back in March, he said that he didn't know if his shoulder would ever be 100% again. He had a average-to-mediocre first half, and then completely lost his command... but was still routinely hitting 94 on the gun. I hope for the best, but have the sinking feeling that we'll end up releasing him next December.

That's why I think it's mental. He comes out there with good stuff and he just throws meatballs like he's doing a Javy impression. And I know he's had injury issues, but 4 years is still a long time, I mean there are guys who will have a good year, then suck and find out they need TJ, then get TJ, then suck as they recover, then fully recover all within a 4-year window (i.e. Freddy over 2006-09). Linebrink's first half numbers during those years have been excellent, and if you look at his splits from 2005 and prior, his second halves were mirroring his first halves.

 

Just my guess, but I think what might be happening is that Linebrink gets a bit tired (every pitcher goes through that dead arm period) around the second half and then he gets lit up a bit as a result. After that he just can't get back to where he was mentally even though he gets stronger again. I mean, I've seen some horrible, horrible pitches from him in good pitchers counts, and I've seen him go out there looking like he has it all working for him and then boom, now we're out of the ballgame.

 

And I completely agree with your sinking feeling about having to dump him eventually which is why I'd love to get creative, if we can, and come up with a way to not pay him all this money we've guaranteed to him. At least if we go with a young guy, if he sucks we can send his ass down or outright release him. When Linebrink sucks it just encourages Ozzie to play him more because (and I'm paraphrasing Chris Rongey here) "if we're going to win anything then we need Linebrink to be good, and you can't get Linebrink to be good again unless you keep running him out there." That's not logical to me and I'm sick of hearing it.

[GreatScott82]

Abreu rejected the Angels 2 year 16 million extension. Would you guys offer 3 years for 24 million?