FutureSox Post-Season Top Prospects List

[NorthSideSox72]

FutureSox has pubished its post-season top prospect list, which can be found here.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

That's a pretty good list, but I think a couple names are missing. Santos Rodriguez and David Holmberg are definitely top 25 prospects. I understand they are less advanced, but so is Upchurch and he made the list. Can I ask why Upchurch was selected over the two of them?

[ThunderBolt]

That's a pretty good list, but I think a couple names are missing. Santos Rodriguez and David Holmberg are definitely top 25 prospects. I understand they are less advanced, but so is Upchurch and he made the list. Can I ask why Upchurch was selected over the two of them?

Agreed, i don't understand the inclusion of some of the older AAAA players, over guys like Holmberg and S-Rod. What i got from the intro to the article was that this was a combo of various opinions from a panel. So, it's possible that Santos and Holmberg did recieve votes just not enought to warrant a spot on the top 25. It's understandable, but i don't really agree with it.

[NorthSideSox72]

Well, I can't speak for all nine people - only myself.

 

Rodriguez was indeed in my Top 25, but only barely. His K numbers and the scouting reports on his arm are very encouraging, and he's only 21. But, he still walked almost 6 batters per 9 this year in rookie ball, and that was his third year in rookie level baseball. He'll be 22 next season and in A ball (low or high), so that will be a nice test for him. And while he has a high ceiling it appears, I think his chances of reaching that ceiling are low, so I couldn't justify putting him higher than the low 20's on my list.

 

I didn't rank Holmberg as a Top 25, though some other voters did. It should be noted though, he ranked no higher than #20 on any of the 9 lists. There seemed to be a general concensus on him being in the 20-30 range, someone definitely worth watching, but not necessarily an elite prospect. I think a lot of focus on his potential is on his age and draft rank (2nd round). And while it is certainly impressive to see him doing anything at all at that age in Bristol, I am not yet comfortable with him being an elite name. Part of it is, honestly, I don't think anyone knows enough about him to make a judgement yet. His secondary stuff is inconsistent (not surprising of course), and his fastball isn't hitting 90 yet. The value being put on him, in my view, is based on some very shaky supposition.

 

They are both guys were watching, but IMO, neither are Top 10 guys or even real close to it, YET.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Agreed, i don't understand the inclusion of some of the older AAAA players, over guys like Holmberg and S-Rod. What i got from the intro to the article was that this was a combo of various opinions from a panel. So, it's possible that Santos and Holmberg did recieve votes just not enought to warrant a spot on the top 25. It's understandable, but i don't really agree with it.

Also, I see no one in the Top 25 that could remotely qualify as "older AAAA". Who are you referring to?

 

[ThunderBolt]

I don’t see Carlos Torres making any notable long-term impact on the major league team. I see him as a guy that can produce down in AAA, but not really establish a spot on the 25-man roster. That’s my definition of an AAAA player. I find his listing at #11 suspect. Although, i will concede that his minor league performance warrants a spot on the list. Also, Upchurch got his ass-handed to him this year. I quite like the kid, and I see the long-term potential, but I find more potential in a kid like Holmberg who’s projected to be hitting 93 out of his left-arm, with solid control and poise. I do like the list quite a bit, and I can’t take much issue with the top ten at all. You guys at Future Sox do great work, and any quibble I have with this article is minor. Ranking prospects is a wooly discipline; it’s a matter of different scouting and opinion.

[scenario]

Santos Rodriguez could be talented enough to make the list... but he's 21 (turns 22 in January), seems likely to end up as a reliever, and just played his 3rd consecutive season of rookie ball. Doesn't help that he's walking over 5 guys per 9 innings either. Add those facts up and he gets bumped off the top 25 in my opinion.

Edited October 11, 2009 by scenario

[SoxAce]

Holmberg, Heidenreich are more worthy than a few names on that list. Ima go out on a limb and say Jim Gallagher is a huge sleeper next year. Every level he goes up, he gets better.

[NorthSideSox72]

I don’t see Carlos Torres making any notable long-term impact on the major league team. I see him as a guy that can produce down in AAA, but not really establish a spot on the 25-man roster. That’s my definition of an AAAA player. I find his listing at #11 suspect. Although, i will concede that his minor league performance warrants a spot on the list. Also, Upchurch got his ass-handed to him this year. I quite like the kid, and I see the long-term potential, but I find more potential in a kid like Holmberg who’s projected to be hitting 93 out of his left-arm, with solid control and poise. I do like the list quite a bit, and I can’t take much issue with the top ten at all. You guys at Future Sox do great work, and any quibble I have with this article is minor. Ranking prospects is a wooly discipline; it’s a matter of different scouting and opinion.

For the record, I actually agree with you on Upchurch, and he wasn't in my 25 or even 30 either.

 

Torres is a tough call. I actually liked what I saw at the major league level, despite some problems. When he isn't afraid of the strike zone, I think he's a major league starter (back end of the rotation). And I think it may be a mental thing with him, so, I see some real possibility there. But its all opinion of course, I could very well be totally wrong.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I don't think anyone is going to LOVE this list simply because there are so many players to choose from when you get outside of our top 6-8 or so. Personally I'm most surprised about Miguel Gonzalez missing this list after the season he had as a rookie catching prospect. I understand it because we don't know a ton about him yet, but it's just kind of odd because 18-year-old catchers who hit the baseball open eyes very quickly. There are a lot of players capable of making big leaps up the rankings over 2010, like Morel and Retherford did this year, and Gonzalez is one of those guys.

Edited October 11, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[danman31]

Agreed, i don't understand the inclusion of some of the older AAAA players, over guys like Holmberg and S-Rod. What i got from the intro to the article was that this was a combo of various opinions from a panel. So, it's possible that Santos and Holmberg did recieve votes just not enought to warrant a spot on the top 25. It's understandable, but i don't really agree with it.

Rodriguez has a long way to go, but I agree on Holmberg. Still, it's really hard to put him in the top 20 unless you are ranking completely on upside.

 

I don't think anyone is going to LOVE this list simply because there are so many players to choose from when you get outside of our top 6-8 or so. Personally I'm most surprised about Miguel Gonzalez missing this list after the season he had as a rookie catching prospect. I understand it because we don't know a ton about him yet, but it's just kind of odd because 18-year-old catchers who hit the baseball open eyes very quickly. There are a lot of players capable of making big leaps up the rankings over 2009, like Morel and Retherford did this year, and Gonzalez is one of those guys.

I agree about Gonzalez, he showed a lot of rare abilities for such a young age. What you said about rankings is really the "problem" with this list. If you read John Sickels, he ranks 20 for every team and says after a certain number (usually around 10 depending on the system) the players are pretty much in a group of up to 20 or so that are interchangable. Different people and different likes and dislikes and it comes out looking kinda weird in a mix like this.

[Balta1701]

I don't think anyone is going to LOVE this list simply because there are so many players to choose from when you get outside of our top 6-8 or so. Personally I'm most surprised about Miguel Gonzalez missing this list after the season he had as a rookie catching prospect. I understand it because we don't know a ton about him yet, but it's just kind of odd because 18-year-old catchers who hit the baseball open eyes very quickly. There are a lot of players capable of making big leaps up the rankings over 2010, like Morel and Retherford did this year, and Gonzalez is one of those guys.

The other side of that "Problem" though, that people won't necessarily love any version of this list, is that it's actually a good thing. You have a handful of legit guys at the top, and more than likely KW will either trade them for legit pieces or a good percentage of them will go on to become legit contributors to the big league ballclub. Then you have a whole lot of in-between guys who are either at the lower levels or who are moving up but aren't yet looking great...the odds are that if you have enough of those kind of guys, you'll be able to pull some decent big leaguers out of the list.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Rodriguez has a long way to go, but I agree on Holmberg. Still, it's really hard to put him in the top 20 unless you are ranking completely on upside.

 

 

I agree about Gonzalez, he showed a lot of rare abilities for such a young age. What you said about rankings is really the "problem" with this list. If you read John Sickels, he ranks 20 for every team and says after a certain number (usually around 10 depending on the system) the players are pretty much in a group of up to 20 or so that are interchangable. Different people and different likes and dislikes and it comes out looking kinda weird in a mix like this.

I think both Santos and Holmberg could be higher based on upside but it's all subjective anyway. There are a few guys who are on there because of strong statistical seasons instead of scouting reports when others with better scouting reports didn't make it. And then there are those who are on there because of scouting reports while others with good statistical seasons missed. IMO, if you want to move into the top-10 in a decent system or the top-15 in a very good system you need to have both, so hopefully some of these guys will separate themselves in 2010.

 

I agree also about Sickel's rankings. Every team has a bunch of guys in the "just missed" department and there are a ton of reasons for that. But mainly those players didn't do enough to really separate themselves from the pack so it's hard to argue about those guys.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

The other side of that "Problem" though, that people won't necessarily love any version of this list, is that it's actually a good thing. You have a handful of legit guys at the top, and more than likely KW will either trade them for legit pieces or a good percentage of them will go on to become legit contributors to the big league ballclub. Then you have a whole lot of in-between guys who are either at the lower levels or who are moving up but aren't yet looking great...the odds are that if you have enough of those kind of guys, you'll be able to pull some decent big leaguers out of the list.

In a way it's a good thing because it means we have depth in the lower levels, but it also sucks because it means we're weak in the higher levels after the trades and promotions. I really doubt Hudson even touches the minors next year whether he's with us or traded to another team. Shelby's stock fell this year also. It's basically Flowers and Viciedo as the big prospects in the higher levels with Retherford also being close.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

BTW I found this interesting too. I looked at a scouting report for Brent Morel when he was drafted, which says:

SCOUTING REPORT: Morel’s quietly-aggressive, blue-collar approach to the game makes him a favorite of coaches, and scouts significantly warmed up to him this spring, as well, after he profiled as little more than a mid-round selection entering the 2008 season. He doesn’t do anything with flash and none of his tools really stick out, but Morel matured as a hitter this year. He had a knack for finding the sweet spot, added power as he learned to backspin balls better and hit the curveball more consistently. He developed into a sound clutch hitter. With a week remaining in the season, he was hitting .364-7-56—and his average and RBIs were team-leading figures. It was a significant step up from 2007, when he batted .333-5-31. His improvement on defense was just as subtle. He makes all the routine plays at third base, shows solid instincts for the position and displays above-average arm strength when he needs to. He also has average speed and is an alert base runner. Some teams believe Morel’s aggressive approach might make him well-suited to become a catcher down the road.

That bolded part really caught my attention. I wonder if the Sox ever thought about that? With Beckham appearing to have captured 3B and Morel looking like a really solid player, a successful transition to catcher would raise his prospect status and trade value a ton.

[Balta1701]

Brandon Inge?

[ThunderBolt]

Hopefully, another year in our system will see Holmberg with a nice jump in peripherals. Ideally, a tick higher k-rate, and a bit more control. I can see him leveling out in many a top ten list by the end of the year.

Edited October 11, 2009 by Thunderbolt

[JPN366]

BTW I found this interesting too. I looked at a scouting report for Brent Morel when he was drafted, which says:

 

That bolded part really caught my attention. I wonder if the Sox ever thought about that? With Beckham appearing to have captured 3B and Morel looking like a really solid player, a successful transition to catcher would raise his prospect status and trade value a ton.

 

I'd say that's maybe a good idea. Other than Phegley, who'll likely be in W-S to start 2010, nobody would be in the way of him playing catcher at B'ham, where he'll likely be in 2010. For what it's worth, my top 5 was Flowers, Hudson, Viciedo, Retherford and Marrero.

[Quin]

Brandon Inge?

 

Is that a comparison to who Morel could be like?

 

Also, I'd rank Hudson #1 and Flowers #2, but thats just because for some reason I can't explain, I have a feeling Flowers won't exactly be a stud, while I think Hudson will.

[southsider2k5]

Is that a comparison to who Morel could be like?

 

Also, I'd rank Hudson #1 and Flowers #2, but thats just because for some reason I can't explain, I have a feeling Flowers won't exactly be a stud, while I think Hudson will.

 

He sounds pretty Joe Crede like with the glove to me. I haven't seen the guy, so I don't know.

[JPN366]

Ima go out on a limb and say Jim Gallagher is a huge sleeper next year. Every level he goes up, he gets better.

 

I liked what I saw of him. Great glove at first, good hitter at the plate. He used the same bat most of the games I saw, sounds like he always made good contact. He can drive the ball good to the gaps, would've been homers if not at Regions, he can hit singles, doubles and triples, good RBI producer. All around good player.

[Balta1701]

Is that a comparison to who Morel could be like?

Very good glove, line drive hitter, keeps moving back and forth between Catcher and 3rd base, sounds like Inge to me.

[Chisoxfn]

That's a pretty good list, but I think a couple names are missing. Santos Rodriguez and David Holmberg are definitely top 25 prospects. I understand they are less advanced, but so is Upchurch and he made the list. Can I ask why Upchurch was selected over the two of them?

I'll flat out say that Rodriguez and Holmberg are both two times that prospects that Upchurch is. Both have bigger and better arms and a lot more upside. UpChurch has potential but he's so freaking raw and he's not as good as the other two guys mentioned.

 

It is difficult though because Rodriguez has flaws and Holmberg is very very raw. Upchurch happens to be a favorite of a guy or two on the panel though and that can sway things.

 

Overall its a pretty complete list though and the good thing is there is a lot of reasons to argue because the depth of the Sox system is so much better.

[Chisoxfn]

Agreed, i don't understand the inclusion of some of the older AAAA players, over guys like Holmberg and S-Rod. What i got from the intro to the article was that this was a combo of various opinions from a panel. So, it's possible that Santos and Holmberg did recieve votes just not enought to warrant a spot on the top 25. It's understandable, but i don't really agree with it.

This is a panel with heavy votes so it can sway things depending on what some of the analysts prefer.

[southsider2k5]

Very good glove, line drive hitter, keeps moving back and forth between Catcher and 3rd base, sounds like Inge to me.

 

It already sounds like Morel is a much better pure hitter than Inge, and has much less power. I don't know that Inge ever hit over .250 in a full season until very recently in his career. He has stops at some teams where he would, but then he would bomb out big time average wise.