Adrian Gonzalez

[iamshack]

He's definitely going to dip in some areas, and he will be a monster in other areas. That was a good find once again by qwerty and generally shack I agree with what your saying and KHP. At the end of the day. if we get Adrian, my god I would be giddy, and if we don't then hey.. next year when Joey Votto is available, I hope we go after him hard or two years from now, if another 1B emerges, or whatever FA same.

SA, the problem with waiting for Joey Votto or whomever the next stud who prices him out of his team's payroll is that we will be a year older. Joey Votto won't help us in 2010. Mark would be a year older. JP would be a year closer to leaving. Danks, Floyd, and Q will be getting more expensive, etc., etc.

 

I agree with KHP....we need a sense of urgency while we have this rotation locked up and still in their primes. Obviously we don't want to be stupid about anything, but our time is now - 2010 - 2012 in my mind.

[SoxAce]

SA, the problem with waiting for Joey Votto or whomever the next stud who prices him out of his team's payroll is that we will be a year older. Joey Votto won't help us in 2010. Mark would be a year older. JP would be a year closer to leaving. Danks, Floyd, and Q will be getting more expensive, etc., etc.

 

I agree with KHP....we need a sense of urgency while we have this rotation locked up and still in their primes. Obviously we don't want to be stupid about anything, but our time is now - 2010 - 2012 in my mind.

 

All of those players you listed minus Buehrle are in their primes, Floyd is locked up, Peavy will be here for years, so only Danks/Quentin your talking about a raise with Konerko, A.J., etc.. all comming off the books in 2010. I do agree that we shouldn't do anything stupid as well, so we won't see any 7-1 deals anytime soon, but I understand that Adrian will be part of our core for at least 2 years. But i also don't feel we have a specific window. KW has done a wonderful job at not only keeping us competitive now, but for a very long time with youth guys now and up and comming (Beckham, Flowers, etc..) and as KHP eluted to, who knows how anything will be 3-4 years from now. KW has the chips for the deck that's for sure. I'd say we have a decent percentage of landing Adrian, not great and not bad. Now I will leave it the way it is, as now it's going from good stuff in here, to beating the dead horse.

Edited November 13, 2009 by SoxAce

[iamshack]

Ahh, all the horses in this stable are dead anyways...

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

KHP, I agree with a lot of that, but don't confuse stacking a number of good hitters in a row throughout a lineup with protection theory. Certainly the better your hitters are, the more professional, dangerous hitters you stack up on one another, the more runs your team will score, for all and more of the reasons you listed. However, the studies show that a dominant hitter puts up similar individual numbers regardless of whether he has good hitters in front of or behind him in the lineup or not. That's not to say AGon won't drive in more runs because he has more men on base in front of him, or score more runs because he has better hitters behind him to knock him in.

 

But the studies are showing that a hitter such as Manny Ramirez or AGon are not necessarily hitting more home runs or XBH because pitchers have to come after them more. From what I have read, the relationship is not a linear one. My guess is there may be some correlation, but it is difficult to recognize over that sample size because the odds of hitters increasing their slugging percentage aren't all that great based on seeing one better pitch to hit per AB. They still have to put that ball in play, they still have to hit it where someone isn't, etc. Most elite hitters get an XBH around 1/20 at bats, from what I understand. So if you do the math, that isn't necessarily coming out to a ton more XBH a year because you are still dealing having to put those pitches in play and hitting them where someone isn't. My very uneducated guess would be that it may come out to some 4-5 additional XBH per year.

 

As for your other points regarding the position of the franchise in 2 years, I think you're spot on. A LOT will change between now and two years from now. Whether we sign AGon or not. KW has proven that.

I understand what you mean then and you could be right with regards to the protection argument. I'll give you that point, and I'll drop my argument against it.

 

However, going back to the original argument that IIRC sprouted this argument, like I said in another post, you don't draw 119 walks on accident. His BB vs. K numbers since becoming a full time starter, along with age, BB rate, K rate, and SLG%:

 

Age 24 52 BB, 113 K, 12.13 PA/BB, 5.58 PA/K, .500 SLG

Age 25 65 BB, 140 K, 11.08 PA/BB, 5.14 PA/K, .502 SLG

Age 26 74 BB, 142 K, 8.32 PA/BB, 4.93 PA/K, .510 SLG

Age 27 119 BB, 109 K, 5.72 PA/BB, 6.25 PA/K, .551 SLG

 

The K rates trended slightly upward along with his power until this year, then improved significantly just as his power improved significantly. I take that as a sign of development and the sign of a break out year, not a career one. His BB rate has done nothing but dramatically improve each year, which is definitely another sign or development. The jump in BB rate he made this year was very similar to the jump in BB rate he made the previous year, which seems to point towards his 2009 season as not being an aberration, only a break out.

 

If Adrian in the Cell is only going to increase his XBH total slightly - which I completely disagree with still, but I'm dropping the protection argument - than his BB rate is only going to dip slightly as well. He has become an extremely disciplined hitter and the numbers back that up because he has improved so much year to year. I agree his OPS will go up, and I still know the general point you're making, but still, compare these numbers again:

 

2009 Home: .244/.413/.446/.859

2009 Road: .306/.402/.643/1.045

Career Home: .260/.355/.441/.795

Career Road: .300/.370/.565/.935

 

Now look at his L/R splits:

 

2009 vs. LHP: .234/.339/.431/.770

2009 vs. RHP: .305/.448/.629/1.077

Career vs. LHP: .244/.316/.428/.724

Career vs. RHP: .298/.383/.543/.926

 

If we were talking about a hitter playing in Texas, the you swapped the road and home numbers, then I would be extremely worried. However, PetCo is hell, and aside from the dimensions, perhaps there are other matters, like the hitting backdrop for one, or the approach he takes while hitting there. But the dropoff is enormous going from road to home, and it seems pretty abnormal in general to see that kind of thing from a player. Adrian Gonzalez in PetCo is almost like Adrian Gonzalez vs. LHP. Put him in the Cell and I bet everything goes up except possibly the walk rate, and I agree with you and SoxAce that the BB will most likely take a dip.

Edited November 13, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[iamshack]

I see a steady rise in the BB rate, but it looks as though it took a pretty huge leap this past year. He went from increasing about 12-15% per year to a 65% increase or so (off the top of my head) last year. That's quite a big leap and part of the reason, outside of common sense, that I agree with Cameron regarding him being pitched around.

 

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying his slugging % won't increase in the Cell, because I do. I just think it will occur primarily because of park factors rather than him having better hitters in the lineup. Additionally, he may get a jump in BA as some balls that were caught in Petco might go as home runs in US Cellular.

 

My guess if he came here is that he would probably hit 45-48 home runs a year and post a line somewhere close to this:

.305/.375/.640, which would obviously be pretty awesome.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

All of those players you listed minus Buehrle are in their primes, Floyd is locked up, Peavy will be here for years, so only Danks/Quentin your talking about a raise with Konerko, A.J., etc.. all comming off the books in 2010. I do agree that we shouldn't do anything stupid as well, so we won't see any 7-1 deals anytime soon, but I understand that Adrian will be part of our core for at least 2 years. But i also don't feel we have a specific window. KW has done a wonderful job at not only keeping us competitive now, but for a very long time with youth guys now and up and comming (Beckham, Flowers, etc..) and as KHP eluted to, who knows how anything will be 3-4 years from now. KW has the chips for the deck that's for sure. I'd say we have a decent percentage of landing Adrian, not great and not bad. Now I will leave it the way it is, as now it's going from good stuff in here, to beating the dead horse.

The 7-for-1 thing was just me being giddy, and I agree it probably doesn't work like that, at least not unless we get Heath Bell or someone else in the deal. The primary focus would be on Hudson, Flowers, Viciedo, and D2 regardless since those are our best trade-eligible pieces.

 

I pretty much agree with the other stuff you're saying. And I'd love to get Votto too, however I still think they'll be dealing Alonso. Just my opinion though and the Reds may definitely see that differently. If they think Alonso can and will do more or less what Votto is doing now then it makes sense to keep Alonso instead and get the extra couple of pre-arb years.

[eickevinmorris]

I started reading that article and I guess I'll go back and give it a chance.

 

I really disagree with idea of protection being a myth. The better hitters before and after you, the tougher it is on the opposing pitcher.

 

The better the hitters are in front of you, the likelier it is for someone to be on base. Going after a big RBI guy with a man on base is very different than attacking him with no one on.

 

Also, if the previous hitter - let's say Beckham - gets into a battle and sees a lot of pitches, and if he forces the pitcher to use just about everything he has, then a smart hitter on deck is going to be watching this, and he is going to go up to the plate with a better idea of what to look to for.

 

From the standpoint of the pitcher, it's a ton easier to work around a tough hitter and then risk making a mistake to a weaker hitter than it is to make good pitches to 3 hitters in a row because you have to. If the pitcher finds it hard to get into a rhythm and he drives up his pitch count in the process, the odds of the bullpen entering the game sooner increase, which is generally going to help your chances of scoring runs, especially if you can get into a bullpen early during the first game of a series. I'm one of those people who believe that the stress of an inning mentally is harder on a pitcher than just throwing pitches in general, and the more stress you put on him, the likelier it is for him to make a mistake. A 3-4-5 of Beckham-Gonzalez-Quentin IMO would add a ton of stress to opposing pitchers. Obviously there will be some guys who are very good pitchers and are just "on," and they'll be able to work through this without much difficulty, but more often than not, it is going to be a pain in the ass for opposing pitchers to work through that kind middle of the order. For a recent example here, I don't think it's much of a coincidence that Dye, Thome, Paulie, and Crede all had excellent years for themselves in 2006 while hitting in a row. They all had very good years on their own, but they also benefited from each other.

 

And I'll say this too: just look at our starting rotation. We have 5 guys that on any given day can go 7 innings and pretty much shut down a lineup. As it stands right now we are were lacking in offense and I believe that even if we don't make any major improvements in that area, we'll still be able to scrape across enough runs to win quite a few close ballgames. If we add a bat like Gonzalez we are going to really going to boost our run differential, and there are going to be more games where we'll be up with big leads, and our starters will take us deep, and because of the leads we'll be able to rely on the front of our bullpen (Carrasco) to finish out games. You can never really count on a bullpen, especially one-inning relievers, but having 5 starters each capable of working 200+IP as well as a potent offense could do wonders to improve our bullpen simply by taking stress off of our weakest back-end relievers by going to them less frequently in tight situations.

 

If I didn't believe Adrian Gonzalez would make us a World Series contender for 2010 and 2011 then I wouldn't suggest trading the farm for him since it is likely we would lose him to free agency in 2012 and only pick up draft picks. But I just find it so surprising that so many people are so concerned about the 2012 team that they'd pass up a chance like this, if it really is there.

 

If we get Adrian and we make major runs for the next two years than EVERYTHING is going to change. You can't just sit here and imagine that things two years from now would be similar to the way they are now, only worse because we won't have any good young players anymore. Two years represents 2 more years of development for the remaining prospects we would keep, plus two years worth of drafts and international signing periods, plus two years of better attendance and a more attractive atmosphere to potential advertisers which leads to more money to play around with, plus two years or additional roster moves by the front office. Two years from now we may have another Floyd/Danks/Quentin/Alexei type that is cheap, young, productive, under team control, and who is **not even in our organization right now.** Go back 2 years from now to 2007 and very few if any of us here would have thought we'd be in such good position as we are in currently, given how s***ty that 2007 team was. I just don't understand how dealing the farm now for a player of Gonzalez's caliber somehow dooms us in the future. That's a very bleak attitude and IMO it is completely unnecessary given the strides our organization has made in general since the 2003 offseason compared to prior periods.

I'm counting Peavy, Danks, Buehrle, and Floyd. Who is the fourth? If you say Garcia, then, well, you're doing it wrong.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I see a steady rise in the BB rate, but it looks as though it took a pretty huge leap this past year. He went from increasing about 12-15% per year to a 65% increase or so (off the top of my head) last year. That's quite a big leap and part of the reason, outside of common sense, that I agree with Cameron regarding him being pitched around.

 

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying his slugging % won't increase in the Cell, because I do. I just think it will occur primarily because of park factors rather than him having better hitters in the lineup. Additionally, he may get a jump in BA as some balls that were caught in Petco might go as home runs in US Cellular.

 

My guess if he came here is that he would probably hit 45-48 home runs a year and post a line somewhere close to this:

.305/.375/.640, which would obviously be pretty awesome.

Look at the leap his BB rate took between 2007-08 though, very similar to the leap this year.

 

If he's being pitched around more, then how come his SLG% took another huge leap in tandem with his BB rate? He hit 4 more HR in 19 fewer PA in 2009 than he did in 2008.

 

I would probably predict a line of around .290/.390/.620, because I see his home numbers increasing as hitters really enjoy the backdrop here (Hunter even said as much when he was close to signing with us) and I see his road numbers decreasing due to an unfamiliarity with new ballparks in his first year in the AL. I think playing half his games in the Cell his home/road splits are going to be a lot closer. The power will increase in the Cell, but we're talking about a guy whose regular thing is parking an outside fastball about 380 feet into the left field bleachers, so his power is going to play anywhere.

[iamshack]

I'm counting Peavy, Danks, Buehrle, and Floyd. Who is the fourth? If you say Garcia, then, well, you're doing it wrong.

I'm assuming you mean the fifth.

And I don't think it's necessarily fair to rule Freddy out from approaching 200 IP. Maybe 170ish is more realistic, but let's not forget this guy was a horse in the early part of his career. He exceeded 200 IP in 7 of his first 8 seasons. While he has struggled with injuries recently, he's looked quite adept at learning how to pitch without a great fastball anymore, and I think if he continues that, he can approach 180-190 IP. The guy is still just 33 years old. People forget that.

[iamshack]

Look at the leap his BB rate took between 2007-08 though, very similar to the leap this year.

 

If he's being pitched around more, then how come his SLG% took another huge leap in tandem with his BB rate? He hit 4 more HR in 19 fewer PA in 2009 than he did in 2008.

 

I would probably predict a line of around .290/.390/.620, because I see his home numbers increasing as hitters really enjoy the backdrop here (Hunter even said as much when he was close to signing with us) and I see his road numbers decreasing due to an unfamiliarity with new ballparks in his first year in the AL. I think playing half his games in the Cell his home/road splits are going to be a lot closer. The power will increase in the Cell, but we're talking about a guy whose regular thing is parking an outside fastball about 380 feet into the left field bleachers, so his power is going to play anywhere.

You know what, I'm sorry, I was just looking at the raw numbers of walks instead of the walks per plate appearance. My bad.

[eickevinmorris]

I'm assuming you mean the fifth.

And I don't think it's necessarily fair to rule Freddy out from approaching 200 IP. Maybe 170ish is more realistic, but let's not forget this guy was a horse in the early part of his career. He exceeded 200 IP in 7 of his first 8 seasons. While he has struggled with injuries recently, he's looked quite adept at learning how to pitch without a great fastball anymore, and I think if he continues that, he can approach 180-190 IP. The guy is still just 33 years old. People forget that.

Yes, my mistake. Freddy has thrown 58, 15, and 56 innings the last three seasons. We should count on 120 innings and go from there. He's why holding onto Daniel should be a priority.

[iamshack]

Yes, my mistake. Freddy has thrown 58, 15, and 56 innings the last three seasons. We should count on 120 innings and go from there. He's why holding onto Daniel should be a priority.

Yeah, I suppose you're right, we shouldn't count on more than that. But I really think he's going to exceed a lot of expectations around the league. The key for me is that he looked as though he had learned how to pitch without the stuff he used to have.

I just think the guy is a big, strong dude. And although he's been injured recently, he looked like he was headed for a full recovery when he pitched for us last year.

I dunno, I'm probably wrong. But he's not a guy I find easy to underestimate.

[qwerty]

Line-up protection has been debunked enough times, and it has been proven to be a factor in the most extreme of extreme cases. There is not a good very good percentage of theories that conclude line-up protection is a real factor, anyone can find such information at will, with a simple search, take a gander if you wish. To be honest i do not believe enough information has been collected at this point to determine for a matter of a fact if protection is a real thing. At this point it nearly everything suggests line-up protection is just a figment of our imagination. I most definitely sway towards the side that protection has a very minimal outcome, if any, but i don't write anything out, until it's definitively proven one way or another.

[chisoxfan09]

Yes, my mistake. Freddy has thrown 58, 15, and 56 innings the last three seasons. We should count on 120 innings and go from there. He's why holding onto Daniel should be a priority.

 

The thing with this scenario is that hopefully Huddie will have to be one of the main pieces in any trade offer. We still have the soild core of 4 and they with the right offense and bullpen (Big if) should be able to account for 700 innings plus or 180 per pitcher). If you calculate from the bottom of the rotation (Slot 4 going up) that the possible win counts would be 13, 15, 15-17, and 18 plus then you look at a possible (I only say possible) 62 wins which is pretty good and only 25-30 wins away from the hypothetical secure numbers of 88-90 wins needed to win this weak division. I hope in a realistic scenario Freddy would be good for another 10-12 wins which bring it up to 70-72. My point is that if the starting 5 go deep then we can have a good chance of winning. But the line up needs work as does the bullpen. I think if not 2010 then 2011 will be our true win now year.

Edited November 14, 2009 by chisoxfan09

[eickevinmorris]

Yeah, I suppose you're right, we shouldn't count on more than that. But I really think he's going to exceed a lot of expectations around the league. The key for me is that he looked as though he had learned how to pitch without the stuff he used to have.

I just think the guy is a big, strong dude. And although he's been injured recently, he looked like he was headed for a full recovery when he pitched for us last year.

I dunno, I'm probably wrong. But he's not a guy I find easy to underestimate.

I'd just be very, very surprised if someone with that history could toss 200 innings. I'm not faulting Freddy -- it's a challenge for anyone. I'd count on him for 120-140 innings with a 4.50 - 4.75 ERA. From our no. 5, that's fantastic.

 

Don't get me wrong, the White Sox are incredible at limiting DL time, but some guys just can't do it. I hope he proves me wrong.

Line-up protection has been debunked enough times, and it has been proven to be a factor in the most extreme of extreme cases. There is not a good very good percentage of theories that conclude line-up protection is a real factor, anyone can find such information at will, with a simple search, take a gander if you wish. To be honest i do not believe enough information has been collected at this point to determine for a matter of a fact if protection is a real thing. At this point it nearly everything suggests line-up protection is just a figment of our imagination. I most definitely sway towards the side that protection has a very minimal outcome, if any, but i don't write anything out, until it's definitively proven one way or another.

Truth. It makes sense in theory, but every substantive study I've seen on it debunks that theory.

 

The thing with this scenario is that hopefully Huddie will have to be one of the main pieces in any trade offer. We still have the soild core of 4 and they with the right offense and bullpen (Big if) should be able to account for 700 innings plus or 180 per pitcher). If you calculate from the bottom of the rotation (Slot 4 going up) that the possible win counts would be 13, 15, 15-17, and 18 plus then you look at a possible (I only say possible) 62 wins which is pretty good and only 25-30 wins away from the hypothetical secure numbers of 88-90 wins needed to win this weak division. I hope in a realistic scenario Freddy would be good for another 10-12 wins which bring it up to 70-72. My point is that if the starting 5 go deep then we can have a good chance of winning. But the line up needs work as does the bullpen. I think if not 2010 then 2011 will be our true win now year.

I just believe more in a team with pitching depth than any other. Gonzalez would help, but for the price suggested here, I'll pass.

 

If we're going to unload the farm for a Gonzalez, let's go get Carlos.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I'm assuming you mean the fifth.

And I don't think it's necessarily fair to rule Freddy out from approaching 200 IP. Maybe 170ish is more realistic, but let's not forget this guy was a horse in the early part of his career. He exceeded 200 IP in 7 of his first 8 seasons. While he has struggled with injuries recently, he's looked quite adept at learning how to pitch without a great fastball anymore, and I think if he continues that, he can approach 180-190 IP. The guy is still just 33 years old. People forget that.

Yeah, people who believe that Freddy is going to have to undergo TJ again right after making a full recovery, or whatever would have to be the case to so limit his innings, are clueless. TJ is the only reason Freddy missed so much time, and when you look at recent history, the amount of time it took Freddy to come back is pretty much the same amount of time it takes for everyone else to work their way back, which is about 1.5-2 years. Billy Wagner took a bit less than 1.5 years and by comparison he came back very quickly.

 

Freddy worked 216.1IP in 2006 and put up a 17-9 record with a 1.28 WHIP, and he had the same stuff then that he has now. 7 of his 9 starts since returning with us have been quality starts, and this is also while still finding his command. Beyond that, Freddy has gotten himself into better shape and is working this offseason on continuing to build up arm strength and stamina. Freddy at 200IP next year is very possible, and a 170IP+ I'd say is probable.

 

Basically, anyone who doesn't see what Freddy offers in the way of offspeed stuff hasn't been paying attention. Anyone who doesn't understand how Freddy is a "pitcher" and not a "thrower" hasn't been paying attention either. The same is true for those who believe it is unlikely for proven veteran hurlers to overcome TJ, or that Freddy cannot be successful without a mid-90's fastball, etc. These are misconceptions which Freddy himself and others have disproven over and over again. Even still, there's a very good chance we'll see Freddy around more like 88-92 rather than the 87-91 Freddy we saw this year as he continues to build strength. I don't think we'll ever get the old Freddy back, but a return of the 2006 Freddy would be one of the best 5th starters in baseball and also a mid-rotation starter in other, lesser rotations around the league. People forget how valuable he was that year, and all you have to do is look at what one year of a 2006 Freddy at $10M brought us in trade: Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez.

Edited November 14, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Jeremy]

I apologize if this has been addressed already but why are we in a logical position to acquire Gonzalez? He's a great hitter who's inexpensive for two years but will cost a ton afterward. Seems like it makes the most sense to gut your farm system for him if you're already a 90+ win team, meaning that he has a good shot to help you win a championship in the next two years, or if you're a team who won't have any trouble signing him to a huge extension. We're neither: we look like merely an 85 win team with a chance to make some noise in the AL central and I'm not sure we can be counted on to throw heaps of cash at Gonzalez. Doesn't it make more sense for Gonzalez to get traded to a team like Boston?

Edited November 14, 2009 by Jeremy

[eickevinmorris]

Yeah, people who believe that Freddy is going to have to undergo TJ again right after making a full recovery, or whatever would have to be the case to so limit his innings, are clueless. TJ is the only reason Freddy missed so much time, and when you look at recent history, the amount of time it took Freddy to come back is pretty much the same amount of time it takes for everyone else to work their way back, which is about 1.5-2 years. Billy Wagner took a bit less than 1.5 years and by comparison he came back very quickly.

1. No one has argued that Freddy will undergo TJ again.

2. Sure, his recovery time has been equitable, but comparing Wagner to Garcia is apples and oranges.

 

Freddy worked 216.1IP in 2006 and put up a 17-9 record with a 1.28 WHIP, and he had the same stuff then that he has now. 7 of his 9 starts since returning with us have been quality starts, and this is also while still finding his command. Beyond that, Freddy has gotten himself into better shape and is working this offseason on continuing to build up arm strength and stamina. Freddy at 200IP next year is very possible, and a 170IP+ I'd say is probable.

Probable? 120 is probable, 160 is possible, and 200 is extremely unlikely.

Basically, anyone who doesn't see what Freddy offers in the way of offspeed stuff hasn't been paying attention. Anyone who doesn't understand how Freddy is a "pitcher" and not a "thrower" hasn't been paying attention either. The same is true for those who believe it is unlikely for proven veteran hurlers to overcome TJ, or that Freddy cannot be successful without a mid-90's fastball, etc. These are misconceptions which Freddy himself and others have disproven over and over again. Even still, there's a very good chance we'll see Freddy around more like 88-92 rather than the 87-91 Freddy we saw this year as he continues to build strength. I don't think we'll ever get the old Freddy back, but a return of the 2006 Freddy would be one of the best 5th starters in baseball and also a mid-rotation starter in other, lesser rotations around the league. People forget how valuable he was that year, and all you have to do is look at what one year of a 2006 Freddy at $10M brought us in trade: Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez.

Yes. He was a good pitcher four years ago. No one's denying that.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Freddy Garcia has been in the Major Leagues since 1999. There has only been one season during that period where Freddy had been physically healthy enough to take the ball all season long and yet did not pitch 200 innings. That was 2009. The reason? His arm strength had not returned. Now that it has, and Freddy is fully healthy again, he should be expected to resume his previous work.

 

2000 he was plagued by injuries and worked 124.1

2007 he had TJ after pitching hurt

2008 he recovered from TJ and made a comeback, but was still weak

2009 he completed his comeback with Sox, fully recovered

 

There is not anything structurally wrong with Freddy Garcia's arm or shoulder. He's been checked out and he is healthy. He has regained the velocity he had with us in 2006, minus maybe a tick of 1mph, and that is what he will be working on over the offseason. The man has rededicated himself to conditioning and is nowhere near the 83-86mph Freddy that we saw pitch against us in Detroit. There is no reason to expect a fully healthy Freddy Garcia to not pitch like a fully healthy Freddy Garcia.

[eickevinmorris]

Freddy Garcia has been in the Major Leagues since 1999. There has only been one season during that period where Freddy had been physically healthy enough to take the ball all season long and yet did not pitch 200 innings. That was 2009. The reason? His arm strength had not returned. Now that it has, and Freddy is fully healthy again, he should be expected to resume his previous work.

 

2000 he was plagued by injuries and worked 124.1

2007 he had TJ after pitching hurt

2008 he recovered from TJ and made a comeback, but was still weak

2009 he completed his comeback with Sox, fully recovered

 

There is not anything structurally wrong with Freddy Garcia's arm or shoulder. He's been checked out and he is healthy. He has regained the velocity he had with us in 2006, minus maybe a tick of 1mph, and that is what he will be working on over the offseason. The man has rededicated himself to conditioning and is nowhere near the 83-86mph Freddy that we saw pitch against us in Detroit. There is no reason to expect a fully healthy Freddy Garcia to not pitch like a fully healthy Freddy Garcia.

Other than the fact that he's four years older than he was in 2006, hasn't had a significant workload since then, and pitchers at his age generally don't have three years with such low innings totals and miss a beat.

Edited November 14, 2009 by KevinM

[iamshack]

Other than the fact that he's four years older than he was in 2006, hasn't had a significant workload since then, and pitchers at his age generally don't have three years with such low innings totals and miss a beat.

So I'm just curious. What would be the reason, if he is indeed fully healthy, for him to be so limited in terms of IP? Are you suggesting he needs another year to build his arm strength back? Or that he will injure the arm or shoulder again?

[Balta1701]

So I'm just curious. What would be the reason, if he is indeed fully healthy, for him to be so limited in terms of IP? Are you suggesting he needs another year to build his arm strength back? Or that he will injure the arm or shoulder again?

I think the best example would be a guy going from throwing 100 innings in the minors to trying to throw 200+ in the bigs with no step in-between. It's possible everything could work swimmingly. But it's also very possible, perhaps likely, that he'll reach the middle of the season and hit a dead-arm period because his arm hasn't been used like that before. Or, it's also possible that something that hasn't been worked out in the same way the last few years could go fine for a while and then suddenly snap. So, the answer is; all of the above. Some pitchers come up and can take a huge innings jump right away and never get hurt or really show a dead-arm stretch, but it's pretty darn rare.

 

We can push him as hard as he can go...but if we don't have a backup plan, its a roll of the dice.

[Dick Allen]

I think the best example would be a guy going from throwing 100 innings in the minors to trying to throw 200+ in the bigs with no step in-between. It's possible everything could work swimmingly. But it's also very possible, perhaps likely, that he'll reach the middle of the season and hit a dead-arm period because his arm hasn't been used like that before. Or, it's also possible that something that hasn't been worked out in the same way the last few years could go fine for a while and then suddenly snap. So, the answer is; all of the above. Some pitchers come up and can take a huge innings jump right away and never get hurt or really show a dead-arm stretch, but it's pretty darn rare.

 

We can push him as hard as he can go...but if we don't have a backup plan, its a roll of the dice.

I'm with you. Freddy is fine, but expecting big innings with his last 3 seasons plus his advancing age is unrealistic. Maybe he does it, but the odds are against it. To leave yourself with very little alternative after that would probably come back and get you.

[Balta1701]

I'm with you. Freddy is fine, but expecting big innings with his last 3 seasons plus his advancing age is unrealistic. Maybe he does it, but the odds are against it. To leave yourself with very little alternative after that would probably come back and get you.

If our backup options are some version of Torres, perhaps Marquez et al., and Mr. "Offday"...it might be manageable...but if you're going to gamble on that, you better have a really good offense to bail you out if the worst case scenario hits. Defense too.

[SoxAce]

If our backup options are some version of Torres, perhaps Marquez et al., and Mr. "Offday"...it might be manageable...but if you're going to gamble on that, you better have a really good offense to bail you out if the worst case scenario hits. Defense too.

 

Ely will probably be in the mix as well if he pitches as well in AAA like he did in AA.