Adrian Gonzalez

[Balta1701]

This is the part of the whole discussion I am not sure on if it ever gets this far. Do the Pads want controllable MLB ready talent that can contribute this year or at the latest as August/Sep callups, or they want toolsy prospects like JM with a ton of upside but who are 2 years away at the least? I say the first argument because most posts I see and what Kevin Towers was saying as the direction they were headed in before he was fired. OK if push comes to shove and we have to include Mitchell instead of a Flowers or Hudson then it is worth the gamble, but AGon would have to be open to discussing an extension.

This team won't be extending Gonzalez. Not because he wouldn't stay, but instead because we're not going to be offering him 8/$180.

[Springfield Soxfan]

^^Really, you think A Gon would command $180 million?

[knightni]

Pretty faulty... logic.

 

[Balta1701]

^^Really, you think A Gon would command $180 million?

Look at what Mark Teixeira got last offseason from the Yankees. 8/$180, the exact number I just quoted. He'll be a year older than Tex when he hits FA, but there'll also be 3 years of salary inflation between those 2 times. I'd be surprised if he can't beat 8/$180 with Boston or the Mets after 2011, assuming he doesn't get hurt and he keeps up approximately the same production he's averaged the last 2 years.

[Kalapse]

^^Really, you think A Gon would command $180 million?

Well . . .

 

7/$126M - Vernon Wells '08 (29)

8/$136M - Alfonso Soriano '07 (31)

9/$141.5M - Todd Helton '03 (29)

8/$152M - Miguel Cabrera '08 (25) [still had 2 years of arbitration remaining so he receives only $26.3M in the first 2 years, he gets an average of $21M annually in the 6 free agent years that were bought out]

8/$160M - Manny Ramirez '01 (29) [$20M annually]

8/$180M - Mark Teixiera '09 (29) [$22.5M annually]

 

Assuming Gonzalez tests free agency following the 2011 season what will truly determine his value will be the long term deal Ryan Howard signs with the Phillies in the next 2 years, any long term deal Prince Fielder gets before then and to a lesser extent the deal Pujols gets from the Cardinals. Gonzalez, Fielder, Howard and Pujols are all scheduled to become free agents following the 2011 season, Howard and Pujols are near locks to stay where they are so their deals will set the market for Fielder and Gonzalez who are more likely to test free agency. Gonzalez will be 30, Fielder 28, Howard and Pujols both 32. Howard's new deal will be the one to watch and given the deals handed out to Teixiera and Miguel Cabrera over the past 2 seasons you'd have to think it'll be in the high $22M-$24M range annually for 6 to 8 years (Howard being 32 years old could screw with the length of the deal a bit) depending on what the economy looks like 2 years from now.

[chisoxfan09]

Well . . .

 

7/$126M - Vernon Wells '08 (29)

8/$136M - Alfonso Soriano '07 (31)

9/$141.5M - Todd Helton '03 (29)

8/$152M - Miguel Cabrera '08 (25) [still had 2 years of arbitration remaining so he receives only $26.3M in the first 2 years, he gets an average of $21M annually in the 6 free agent years that were bought out]

8/$160M - Manny Ramirez '01 (29) [$20M annually]

8/$180M - Mark Teixiera '09 (29) [$22.5M annually]

 

Assuming Gonzalez tests free agency following the 2011 season what will truly determine his value will be the long term deal Ryan Howard signs with the Phillies in the next 2 years, any long term deal Prince Fielder gets before then and to a lesser extent the deal Pujols gets from the Cardinals. Gonzalez, Fielder, Howard and Pujols are all scheduled to become free agents following the 2011 season, Howard and Pujols are near locks to stay where they are so their deals will set the market for Fielder and Gonzalez who are more likely to test free agency. Gonzalez will be 30, Fielder 28, Howard and Pujols both 32. Howard's new deal will be the one to watch and given the deals handed out to Teixiera and Miguel Cabrera over the past 2 seasons you'd have to think it'll be in the high $22M-$24M range annually for 6 to 8 years (Howard being 32 years old could screw with the length of the deal a bit) depending on what the economy looks like 2 years from now.

 

I am thinking JR would not go higher than maybe 4/80 or 5/100. I can´t recall any long term monster deals other than Albert Belle and he got taken there.

[southsider2k5]

The big problem with D2 is that D1 still made a sacrifice, switching agents away from Boras, when we drafted D2. Thus, trading D2 could easily have a huge impact on the ability of the team to hold onto D1. And we still have no idea what they might have said behind the scenes as well.

 

Until Danks signs long term, I don't care what he thinks. He hasn't shown any signs since that point that he wants to be here long term, so I am not to concerned about trading his little brother if it brings us back a superstar.

[witesoxfan]

well said. however, i highly doubt- jordan danks would be the center piece to an A-Gon deal anyway. Mitchell has a much higher ceiling than D2 and you would have to assume- he would have to be included in a mega package headed to San Diego.

 

Jared Mitchell has played 34 games in low-A ball. Sure, his ceiling is higher, but I imagine Joe Borchard's ceiling is higher still too. You need something to base value off of, and 34 games is nothing that you can do much of anything with. Jordan Danks has played a half season at AA - and did very poorly, but had injury issues - and played very well in the AFL. If you are talking strictly value, Jordan Danks' value is higher than Jared Mitchell's is right now simply because there's a legitimate scouting report to deal with and both are legitimate prospects.

[iamshack]

Jared Mitchell has played 34 games in low-A ball. Sure, his ceiling is higher, but I imagine Joe Borchard's ceiling is higher still too. You need something to base value off of, and 34 games is nothing that you can do much of anything with. Jordan Danks has played a half season at AA - and did very poorly, but had injury issues - and played very well in the AFL. If you are talking strictly value, Jordan Danks' value is higher than Jared Mitchell's is right now simply because there's a legitimate scouting report to deal with and both are legitimate prospects.

I know what you're saying, but if I were an opposing GM, and I had my choice between the two, I would take Mitchell - unless of course I needed to fill a position immediately and I thought Jordan could do so.

[chisoxfan09]

I know what you're saying, but if I were an opposing GM, and I had my choice between the two, I would take Mitchell - unless of course I needed to fill a position immediately and I thought Jordan could do so.

 

Hell Hoyer may ask for both if AGon is raking for eample at the all star break.

[witesoxfan]

I know what you're saying, but if I were an opposing GM, and I had my choice between the two, I would take Mitchell - unless of course I needed to fill a position immediately and I thought Jordan could do so.

 

I think it's entirely possible that Hoyer and company could prefer Mitchell to Danks. I just don't think they could have any type of read on him to determine that he could be anything more than a throw-in to a trade, especially for a player like Gonzalez. The fact of the matter is, Mitchell's value is far greater to the White Sox right now than it is to the Padres or the other 28 teams. Wait a year, and that may change, just as it did with Poreda and Carter, and just as it may with Hudson and Flowers and Danks and whoever else. I think the only player that has absolutely no chance at being moved by the White Sox because of the above circumstances ("prospect" with more value to the Sox than others) is Gordon Beckham, and that is a universally agreed upon point.