BPro: White Sox Top 11 Prospects

[wsgdf_2]

I guess while everybody's whining about Joe Cowley, I get to post this!

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9776

 

 

Here we go:

 

Four Star Prospects:

1. Dan Hudson RHP

2. Jared Mitchell OF

3. Tyler Flowers C

 

Three Star Prospects:

4. Jordan Danks CF

5. Dayan Viciedo 3B

6. Brent Morel 3B

7. Clevelan Santeliz RHP

8. Trayce Thompson OF

 

Two Star Prospects

9. Santos Rodriguez LHP

10. David Holmberg LHP

11. CJ Retherford 2B

 

Four More:

12. Jhonny Nunez RHP

13. Josh Phegley C

14. John Ely RHP

15. Nathan Jones RHP

Edited November 19, 2009 by wsgdf_2

[iamshack]

Interesting that Mitchell is our #2 now...I dunno if that is good or bad...

[Balta1701]

Interesting that Mitchell is our #2 now...I dunno if that is good or bad...

Mitchell seems like the kind of guy BP would really like.

[wsgdf_2]

Interesting that Mitchell is our #2 now...I dunno if that is good or bad...

 

Goldstein said he has 'elite' tools in the chat. He also said he could move up to 5 Star with a good showing in the minors this year/

[iamshack]

Goldstein said he has 'elite' tools in the chat. He also said he could move up to 5 Star with a good showing in the minors this year/

Oh he definitely has elite tools, that's what got him drafted in the first round. He's just very raw, from what I've read and seen on television.

 

I can see how a good year in professional ball would rise him up to 5 star status though.

[SoxAce]

I saw this a day or so ago but didn't bother to post it cause it has some serious flaws with the rankings. Now I'm not sure if BP (who I don't mind at all reading actually) was just going by pure potential, or actual overall rankings, but in either case having Jared at #2 but only having Trayce 8th (or 3.0) (who many have said has the bigger upside if he figures it all out) Not to mention Holmberg and the ridiculous Nathan Jones that low? (there are others but just naming a couple examples) C'mon.

 

Now if it's based on just performance (which I'm probably banking it does) than Trayce still might be a bit too high even with the ungodly upside. But.. it's all moot then.

Edited November 19, 2009 by SoxAce

[wsgdf_2]

I saw this a day or so ago but didn't bother to post it cause it has some serious flaws with the rankings. Now I'm not sure if BP (who I don't mind at all reading actually) was just going by pure potential, or actual overall rankings, but in either case having Jared at #2 but only having Trayce 8th (or 3.0) (who many have said has the bigger upside if he figures it all out) Not to mention Holmberg and the ridiculous Nathan Jones that low? (there are others but just naming a couple examples) C'mon.

 

Now if it's based on just performance (which I'm probably banking it does) than Trayce still might be a bit too high even with the ungodly upside. But.. it's all moot then.

 

It's Kevin Goldstein. He's not a typical Baseball Prospectus guy. He wrote for Baseball America in another life.

 

So... the rankings aren't based purely on performance. He definitely takes performance into account, but with him it seems to be more of a combination of upside(tools) + readiness(performance). He does take age and level into account also.

 

He's always loved Jared Mitchell - thought it was a GREAT pick when the Sox took him, so I'm not surprised he ranks him so high.

 

 

 

 

 

[Quin]

I think D2 should be 4-star, Mitchell should just be a little lower, and Thompson is too high. But not a bad list overall.

[wsgdf_2]

From the chat:

 

Eliu (Chicago): Jared Mitchell, what's his upside?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Crazy high.

 

Ooohhh... makes me giddy.

 

[SoxAce]

From the chat:

 

Eliu (Chicago): Jared Mitchell, what's his upside?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Crazy high.

 

Ooohhh... makes me giddy.

 

Trayce is actually higher (again IF he figures it all out).. which could potentially make you wet.

[wsgdf_2]

Trayce is actually higher (again IF he figures it all out).. which could potentially make you wet.

 

Where have you read that? I don't consider him that low on the list. Actually, I was pleasantly surprised to see him as high as he is. Who do you think he should be in front of?

 

[SoxAce]

Where have you read that? I don't consider him that low on the list. Actually, I was pleasantly surprised to see him as high as he is. Who do you think he should be in front of?

 

I'll put it to you this way. Trayce Thompson's upside is just ridiculous. Whether he figures it out.. remains to be seen and even if he does figure out some tools, he might not figure out all of them. He was a first round pick talent (top 10 some scouts had him projected) that just happened to slip cause of signability issues (he was fully commited to UCLA). Hell I remember Seiler just raving about him. I'll quote a couple scouts and an actual poster here who kinda said this. He was one of the most "interesting" picks in the last decade. He could be the next Dave Winfield reincarnated. (some say Maybin as far a 5 plus tools) or could be another Mike Stanton (OF).

 

One compared him with Everett Williams.

 

Half a country west of Williams, Santa Margarita (Calif.) High School outfielder Trayce Thompson has impressed scouts with nearly as much if not more athletic ability than Williams. The major difference between the two players is polish.

 

As is the case with many elite athletes, the 6-4, 200-pound Thompson has done his fair share of sampling other sports, including basketball, which weighs heavily in the Thompson household. Trayce's father is former NBA star Mychal Thompson, so Trayce is still polishing. He is committed to UCLA, where he could further develop his skills because the physical tools are there.

 

Thompson rates plus tools nearly all across the board with a clearly projectable frame that has room for additional muscle. One scout said Thompson reminds him of the Phillies' John Mayberry Jr., but a better athlete. Thompson's limbs are long, but his stride is not loping.

 

"He's a tremendous athlete and exhibits plus power," the NL Central scout said. "He's got plus speed, but that's after he's underway. Way better athlete than Mayberry."

 

Another..

 

I would not be surprised if he's the best of their first three picks

 

One more..

 

A gifted athlete who continues to evolve. Swing showed length and fair rhythm early in season, has shown shorter path with balance and power. Has a youthful appearance with strong athletic bloodlines. Athletic enough to remain in CF with above-average power; should be starter on first division MLB team. UCLA commit.

 

Hell even futuresox wrote up a nice report a while back..

 

You could argue Thompson has the highest upside of anyone in the White Sox 2009 Draft class. He has everything scouts love: spectacular athleticism, a projectable frame and the talent to be a 5-tool player. He has a good approach at the plate for his age and has good power potential. The only thing keeping him from being an elite prospect currently is his tendency to strike out more than most due to a longer swing. He does have very good bat speed though. Defensively he can play centerfield and will likely start there, but his bat should allow for him to move to the corners if need be. He has good arm strength and speed which makes him project nicely as an above-average everyday corner outfielder. He comes from an athletic family; his dad, Mychal, played in the NBA and two of his brothers are playing Division 1 basketball.

 

 

There's no secret that he was the most improved High Schooler comming out, and is still getting better as a baseball player. How good can he get.. remains to be seen. Supposedly.. might have been Laumann's favorite pick in that draft. There was alot of talk in Cali (I believe Jason said it a while back) that he was a steal with his upside/potential. Even if he never makes it.. you make that kind of pick everytime. (same as Nevin Griffith) I just hope we are very patient with him. I believe it was Callis (or someone.. can't remember) that said he's the type of guy that might not break out till 2012. As far as your other question.. I'm not sure which is why I said the list was flawed as I have no idea where KG was taking into account (performance/upside/tools) but if it's more the latter, Trayce's name will and should be up there, but his performance will probably not make him a top 5-10 prospect at this time unless it's just pure potential/projection.

Edited November 19, 2009 by SoxAce

[justBLAZE]

Very surprised to see Jared Mitchell so high.

 

Is it not weird that the way CJ Retherford has been hitting the ball lever after lever he is pretty low on that list?

Edited November 19, 2009 by tommy

[Chicago White Sox]

Interesting that Santeliz is a three star prospect while Jones is in the "four more" group.

 

Does anyone have any ideas for the disparity?

[wsgdf_2]

There's no secret that he was the most improved High Schooler comming out, and is still getting better as a baseball player. How good can he get.. remains to be seen. Supposedly.. might have been Laumann's favorite pick in that draft. There was alot of talk in Cali (I believe Jason said it a while back) that he was a steal with his upside/potential. Even if he never makes it.. you make that kind of pick everytime. (same as Nevin Griffith) I just hope we are very patient with him. I believe it was Callis (or someone.. can't remember) that said he's the type of guy that might not break out till 2012. As far as your other question.. I'm not sure which is why I said the list was flawed as I have no idea where KG was taking into account (performance/upside/tools) but if it's more the latter, Trayce's name will and should be up there, but his performance will probably not make him a top 5-10 prospect at this time unless it's just pure potential/projection.

 

Thanks for the info. I remember some of that but hadn't read any reports. I think his placement on the list is not based on pure athleticism and frame but on the questions that remain about how they'll translate.

[chunk23]

Very surprised to see Jared Mitchell so high.

 

Is it not weird that the way CJ Retherford has been hitting the ball lever after lever he is pretty low on that list?

 

Retherford is sort of an overachiever. He's had to fight his way into a spot at nearly every stop, even before being in the Sox system. While he's definitely produced well at each level, he has utility man written all over him. But the good kind, like a DeRosa.

Edited November 19, 2009 by chunk23

[danman31]

Interesting that Santeliz is a three star prospect while Jones is in the "four more" group.

 

Does anyone have any ideas for the disparity?

I was wondering the same thing. Santeliz has to work on his control, but I gotta say I don't know a lot about his stuff. BA had him 14 going into this year, but they said his fastball works from '90-96' so I have no idea what to think of that. That's far too big of a range to take anything from. I've heard before that his slider can be great so as a reliever there's some upside there, but BP might have seen him when he was on and not when he was off. As far as I can tell it seems like a consistency issue (which of course you can see just from his glaring lack of control). Still, he had a solid K rate and an ERA under 1 this year for the Barons so maybe BP is thinking he is starting to put it together.

 

Thanks for the info. I remember some of that but hadn't read any reports. I think his placement on the list is not based on pure athleticism and frame but on the questions that remain about how they'll translate.

Thompson seems to be the prototypical 'if he can figure it out' guy as SoxAce even said. He has big upside, but a LONG way to go. He struggled in rookie ball this year, to no surprise really, but to say 2012 could be his breakout year is going to an extreme. You can take a look at Chris Carter and see a guy out of high school that took a few years to get it together and gradually turned into a spectacular prospect. Carter fell to the Sox in the 15th round because of an injury (and signability questions because of the injury) so huge talent can slip through the cracks. Thompson even slipping to the 2nd could be a coup in the future. What's exciting about his pick is that it's not a pick the Sox have made often with a high draft pick recently. They did quite a bit of it this year.

[southsider2k5]

I was wondering the same thing. Santeliz has to work on his control, but I gotta say I don't know a lot about his stuff. BA had him 14 going into this year, but they said his fastball works from '90-96' so I have no idea what to think of that. That's far too big of a range to take anything from. I've heard before that his slider can be great so as a reliever there's some upside there, but BP might have seen him when he was on and not when he was off. As far as I can tell it seems like a consistency issue (which of course you can see just from his glaring lack of control). Still, he had a solid K rate and an ERA under 1 this year for the Barons so maybe BP is thinking he is starting to put it together.

 

 

Thompson seems to be the prototypical 'if he can figure it out' guy as SoxAce even said. He has big upside, but a LONG way to go. He struggled in rookie ball this year, to no surprise really, but to say 2012 could be his breakout year is going to an extreme. You can take a look at Chris Carter and see a guy out of high school that took a few years to get it together and gradually turned into a spectacular prospect. Carter fell to the Sox in the 15th round because of an injury (and signability questions because of the injury) so huge talent can slip through the cracks. Thompson even slipping to the 2nd could be a coup in the future. What's exciting about his pick is that it's not a pick the Sox have made often with a high draft pick recently. They did quite a bit of it this year.

 

Sounds a lot like Brandon Allen as well. He was a 4th round pick who took a couple of years to really start to figure it out.

[scenario]

Interesting that Santeliz is a three star prospect while Jones is in the "four more" group.

 

Does anyone have any ideas for the disparity?

 

Probably due to age difference and levels they pitched at.

 

Jones pitched in high-A this year. Santeliz is a little bit year younger (8 months) and pitched at AA.

 

BTW, Santeliz is pitching great in winter ball. Dominating. And showing great control. VERY encouraging.)

Edited November 19, 2009 by scenario

[ThunderBolt]

Happy to see Holmberg slip in to the top ten. While it's clear that this system needs an influx of high-upside LHP's sooner rather then later, Holmberg is a great start.

[Chisoxfn]

It's Kevin Goldstein. He's not a typical Baseball Prospectus guy. He wrote for Baseball America in another life.

 

So... the rankings aren't based purely on performance. He definitely takes performance into account, but with him it seems to be more of a combination of upside(tools) + readiness(performance). He does take age and level into account also.

 

He's always loved Jared Mitchell - thought it was a GREAT pick when the Sox took him, so I'm not surprised he ranks him so high.

Goldstein also follows the Sox quite a bit so I'd say he's a very very well educated observer of the Sox system and a good guy to listen to when he talks about Sox prospects.

[Chisoxfn]

Trayce is actually higher (again IF he figures it all out).. which could potentially make you wet.

I'm going to have to disagree with that. Mitchell is just more polished and I can't say Trayce has a better skill-set, although he does have more power potential.

 

Both have sick upsides, but both also have a lot to work on that puts the odds of them reaching that ceiling at much lower levels and it is why they both were outside of the top 10.

 

I would say both have the pure potential of a top 10 or so pick though.

[SoxAce]

I'm going to have to disagree with that. Mitchell is just more polished and I can't say Trayce has a better skill-set, although he does have more power potential.

 

Both have sick upsides, but both also have a lot to work on that puts the odds of them reaching that ceiling at much lower levels and it is why they both were outside of the top 10.

 

I would say both have the pure potential of a top 10 or so pick though.

 

Well you once said yourself out there in Cali that people were raving about the kid. In fact.. many scouts on writeups said if he would have improved his overall skill set, he probably would had been a top 10 pick in 3-4 years anyways.

 

A lot of people are talking about Thompson and saying he has more upside than our #1 pick.

 

[Chisoxfn]

Ya, I don't necessarily agree with those people. The good thing is, both have crazy high upside and thats a good thing. The next question is can our coaches help them develop and will they put in the time it takes to develop.

 

I certainly hope so!!!

[Rowand44]

Ya, I don't necessarily agree with those people. The good thing is, both have crazy high upside and thats a good thing. The next question is can our coaches help them develop and will they put in the time it takes to develop.

 

I certainly hope so!!!

I just love the fact that one of Mitchell's better qualities seems to be on base abilities. Mix that with his athleticism and you have a chance for a special player and I'm not even considering all the other tools he has.