Sox ask Tampa Bay about BJ Upton

[sircaffey]

Wheeler was given a chance and so was Howell. The Rays blew 4 saves in a row to the Tigers at the end of last season. 4 blown saves in a week. Comparing Jenks, who is an elite MLB closer to the Committee of Fail the Rays sported last season is a joke. Of course the Rays want Jenks. Kenny is gonna have to eat some dosh if he moves him and you bet he would to aquire Upton.

 

You use the term "elite" quite loosely in my opinion.

[witesoxfan]

Wheeler was given a chance and so was Howell. The Rays blew 4 saves in a row to the Tigers at the end of last season. 4 blown saves in a week. Comparing Jenks, who is an elite MLB closer to the Committee of Fail the Rays sported last season is a joke. Of course the Rays want Jenks. Kenny is gonna have to eat some dosh if he moves him and you bet he would to aquire Upton.

 

Joe Nathan

Mariano Rivera

Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Broxton

Heath Bell

Francisco Cordero

Francisco Rodriguez

Trevor Hoffman

Joakim Soria

Jose Valverde

Andrew Bailey

Rafael Soriano

 

I would rate all of those closers as being better than Bobby Jenks.

 

That is 12 closers, or 40% of closers in baseball. I generally look at 10%, but since it is such a narrow field, I will say that the 20% of closers in baseball are elite. That leaves Jenks right around a 2nd or 3rd tier closer, and probably much closer to 3rd tier than 2nd tier. There were also pitchers, such as Ryan Franklin, Brian Wilson, and Huston Street, who have had a semi-sketchy history as a closer or reliever, but had better seasons than Jenks did this past season.

 

Bobby Jenks is not an elite closer.

 

Further, this is a great free agent market for closers, and the baseball economy is still catching up (it is usually a year or two delayed because there are still several inflated contracts from the 2006-07 and 2007-08 offseasons), and Jenks value takes an even bigger hit.

 

Jenks has value, but he doesn't have a ton of it to the Rays, who I have proven have relievers who are just as good statistically, even if you cite one example where they blew 3 saves in a row (even if one of those "blown saves" happened in the 7th inning, which further proves the need to come up with separate statistics for holds and saves, and consequently, blown holds and blown saves), and they won't have a ton of interest in him. If they do, they are misplacing their value, and if the Sox can take advantage of it, then more power to them.

 

Beyond even that, if the Sox trade Jenks, they are putting themselves back in a hole no matter what. Thornton is more than capable of closing, but Ozzie generally doesn't use his closer in anything but save situations, and making Thornton strictly a 9th inning pitcher takes away from his value in the 7th and 8th innings and a power lefty arm. If the Sox still have Richard or Poreda, I would strongly suggest it, but at this point, I struggle to see that situation working itself out well.

[SoxAce]

Heath Bell

Francisco Cordero

Andrew Bailey

Rafael Soriano

 

I would rate all of those closers as being better than Bobby Jenks.

 

I'm just going to assume you meant they were better this past season, especially seeing most of that list quoted were either first time full closers and/or a rookie reliever. Even Valverde is debatable. If you didn't.. shame on you.

 

OT: But I would like to reiterate the fact that Trevor Hoffman is still a freak at 41 and should also get some recognition out there other than Rivera all the time. Thank you.

Edited November 24, 2009 by SoxAce

[WCSox]

Joe Nathan

Mariano Rivera

Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Broxton

Heath Bell

Francisco Cordero

Francisco Rodriguez

Trevor Hoffman

Joakim Soria

Jose Valverde

Andrew Bailey

Rafael Soriano

 

I would rate all of those closers as being better than Bobby Jenks.

 

That is 12 closers, or 40% of closers in baseball. I generally look at 10%, but since it is such a narrow field, I will say that the 20% of closers in baseball are elite. That leaves Jenks right around a 2nd or 3rd tier closer, and probably much closer to 3rd tier than 2nd tier.

 

If Jenks is as good or better than 60% of the closers in baseball, how does that make him "close to a 3rd tier" closer? I understand your overall point, but "3rd tier" doesn't exactly imply slightly better than average. If 20% of closers in baseball are elite (1st tier), wouldn't that put Jenks right at the end of the 2nd tier?

 

I agree that the Sox are probably better off signing Jenks to another one-year deal and having the freedom to use Thornton in the 7th or 8th. But if the Sox are able to include Jenks in a deal for Upton, I do that deal and look for a setup man elsewhere.

 

[macsandz]

An average of 35 saves a year is elite.

He also broke the all time MLB record for consecutive outs while doing it.

 

[southsider2k5]

An average of 35 saves a year is elite.

He also broke the all time MLB record for consecutive outs while doing it.

 

One time streaks do not make an elite player. Sorry.

[macsandz]

Joe Nathan

Mariano Rivera

Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Broxton

Heath Bell

Francisco Cordero

Francisco Rodriguez

Trevor Hoffman

Joakim Soria

Jose Valverde

Andrew Bailey

Rafael Soriano

 

I would rate all of those closers as being better than Bobby Jenks.

 

 

Your "ratings" are ridiculous. No GM in baseball is gonna choose all of those guys listed above over of Bobby Jenks when they need a save.

 

 

 

 

[macsandz]

One time streaks do not make an elite player. Sorry.

 

Tell that to Joe DiMaggio.

[southsider2k5]

Tell that to Joe DiMaggio.

 

Joe also had a pretty decent career if you didn't notice.

[JoeCredeYes]

Joe also had a pretty decent career if you didn't notice.

 

361 Home Runs and 369 Strike Outs, ridiculous.

 

[Chi Town Sox]

I'm just going to assume you meant they were better this past season, especially seeing most of that list quoted were either first time full closers and/or a rookie reliever. Even Valverde is debatable. If you didn't.. shame on you.

 

OT: But I would like to reiterate the fact that Trevor Hoffman is still a freak at 41 and should also get some recognition out there other than Rivera all the time. Thank you.

 

Those are the exact 5 players that I was thinking about as well - 4 out of 5 are in the NL. Although maybe not too much of a difference - you could also make an argument on quite a few of those players pitching in some pretty low pressure markets too.

[elrockinMT]

Yeah, he has been struggling massively....I think he has a lot more talent than Young though....his grasp of the strike zone makes him incredibly more value...

 

 

He struggles but has a grasp for the strike zone? Then he just can't hit the ball is what you are saying?

[elrockinMT]

If Tampa extends Crawford, it may make Jennings more available.

 

 

I was going to bring up Crawford because if you read the whole story on Upton it says that certain teams have inquired about Crawford and others (including the Chisox) have inquired about Upton. I don't see TB trading both does anyone else? Plus obviously inquiries can mean about anything. Both are good players no doubt, but what would it cost to get either one?

Edited November 24, 2009 by elrockinMT

[NorthSideSox72]

An average of 35 saves a year is elite.

He also broke the all time MLB record for consecutive outs while doing it.

Tied, not broke.

 

Also, bulk number of saves isn't a great number to look at. Look at success rate, and drill down to success rates by lead given.

 

Jenks is a good closer, but as previously illustrated, there are probably 5 to 10 guys better.

 

[witesoxfan]

Your "ratings" are ridiculous. No GM in baseball is gonna choose all of those guys listed above over of Bobby Jenks when they need a save.

 

I don't believe you have even bothered to look at numbers once, and you are debating merely on the premises of instances and stats that are generally team dependent. Thus far, you've mentioned

 

-the Rays need a closer because they blew 4 (it was actually 3, and one of them was in the 7th inning) straight saves

-Jenks averages 35 saves a season, which has just as much to do with team performance than Jenks himself

-he once retired a lot of guys in a row

 

Joakim Soria only had one more save than Bobby Jenks last year, yet was far more dominant and a far better closer.

[witesoxfan]

If Jenks is as good or better than 60% of the closers in baseball, how does that make him "close to a 3rd tier" closer? I understand your overall point, but "3rd tier" doesn't exactly imply slightly better than average. If 20% of closers in baseball are elite (1st tier), wouldn't that put Jenks right at the end of the 2nd tier?

 

I agree that the Sox are probably better off signing Jenks to another one-year deal and having the freedom to use Thornton in the 7th or 8th. But if the Sox are able to include Jenks in a deal for Upton, I do that deal and look for a setup man elsewhere.

 

I'm looking at it in regards to a 5 tier system, and 2nd or 3rd tier would put him right in the middle of the pack. That's mainly what I was referring to.

[sircaffey]

I'm looking at it in regards to a 5 tier system, and 2nd or 3rd tier would put him right in the middle of the pack. That's mainly what I was referring to.

 

I think when you get past the top 10 closers, you can make a case for any of the next 5-8 closers (where Jenks is). At this point (and the general nature of non-elite RP), I think Jenks is just as likely to be the 11th most effective closer in a given year as the 18th. So he's middle of the pack for me as well.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Tell that to Joe DiMaggio.

 

Or Johnny Vander Meer...

 

Oh, wait...

[Ozzie Ball]

An average of 35 saves a year is elite.

I'm not a particularly eloquent person so I'm going to defer to this quote from the blog Triples Alley, it directly relates to RBI's, but can easily be shifted for wins, saves, holds, runs etc.

 

RBI mean absolutely nothing without context. Otherwise it is nothing more than a random number that seems to correlate well with good hitters. If you’re a good hitter, you tend to have good RBI totals- and this is a perceived universal truth. This does NOT, however, give us any semblance of accuracy.

Sure, it's a closers job to come in with a small lead and get the last 3 outs, but the way that they get these outs is far more important for assessing ability and predicting future success than the simple fact of whether they picked up the save or not.

[Kalapse]

Tell that to Joe DiMaggio.

The record for most consecutive appearances by a closer without allowing an ER is held by Ryan Dempster.

[heirdog]

Those are the exact 5 players that I was thinking about as well - 4 out of 5 are in the NL. Although maybe not too much of a difference - you could also make an argument on quite a few of those players pitching in some pretty low pressure markets too.

 

9th inning save situation, the opposing team's pitcher is not hitting...so no NL vs. AL argument.

 

A save situation is many times a pressure situation so one would think that pressure would trump any market pressure...the "boos" come when you screw up not before you screw up.

[harfman77]

I think Jenks is in the top 7 in baseball, and at times can be the best. All baseball players are streaky, this year Bobby had a bad year in terms of his overall performance. If I had to rank closers in terms of trade value:

 

1. Soria

2. Bell

3. Papelbon

4. Street

5. Broxton

6. Nathan

7. Bell

8. Jenks

9. Capps

10. Bailey

 

By ability:

 

1. Rivera

2. Soria

3. Papelbon

4. Nathan

5. Street

6. Broxton

7. Hoffman

8. Jenks

9. Bell

10. Capps

[witesoxfan]

I think Jenks is in the top 7 in baseball, and at times can be the best. All baseball players are streaky, this year Bobby had a bad year in terms of his overall performance. If I had to rank closers in terms of trade value:

 

1. Soria

2. Bell

3. Papelbon

4. Street

5. Broxton

6. Nathan

7. Bell

8. Jenks

9. Capps

10. Bailey

 

By ability:

 

1. Rivera

2. Soria

3. Papelbon

4. Nathan

5. Street

6. Broxton

7. Hoffman

8. Jenks

9. Bell

10. Capps

 

How about by what the statistics say? And Matt Capps really doesn't belong in the discussion right now, considering the piss poor season he had and that injuries very well may have had something to do with it. He had three great seasons prior to that, so it's very possible he can bounce back, but I wouldn't rank him anywhere near a top 10 in value right now.

 

I would say the guys with the most value right now are those on the free agent market. Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, and even Kevin Gregg, Fernando Rodney, and you can throw Octavio Dotel out there too. If I am a team looking for a closer, I'm much rather going to try and sign one of those guys, give up no players, and pray for the best. You just won't see closers with real good value this offseason. Beyond that, Jenks having 2 years of arbitration left and those two years going to be expensive years (very likely in the $16-17 mill range), it takes away from his value even more.

 

I don't think Jenks is going to have much value, and I don't think this is the offseason to deal him. I would say deal him next midseason if the team is out of the race (which I do not envision happening) or come next offseason.

[qwerty]

I think Jenks is in the top 7 in baseball, and at times can be the best. All baseball players are streaky, this year Bobby had a bad year in terms of his overall performance. If I had to rank closers in terms of trade value:

 

1. Soria

2. Bell

3. Papelbon

4. Street

5. Broxton

6. Nathan

7. Bell

8. Jenks

9. Capps

10. Bailey

 

By ability:

 

1. Rivera

2. Soria

3. Papelbon

4. Nathan

5. Street

6. Broxton

7. Hoffman

8. Jenks

9. Bell

10. Capps

 

If you consider jenks to be one of the top seven closers in baseball why exactly would you rank him 8th when it comes to ability? Seems odd to me.

[Kalapse]

By ability:

 

1. Rivera

2. Soria

3. Papelbon

4. Nathan

5. Street

6. Broxton

7. Hoffman

8. Jenks

9. Bell

10. Capps

No K-Rod, huh? Seems a bit odd.

 

Obviously it's a bit flawed because some of these guys haven't been full time closers over the past 3 years but anyway:

 

Ranked by FIP (fielding independent pitching) over the past 3 seasons:

 

Broxton: 2.27

Papelbon: 2.45

Rivera: 2.45

Bell: 2.68

Nathan: 2.71

Soria: 2.77

Saito: 2.91

Cordero: 3.01

Street: 3.04

Hoffman: 3.08

Wilson: 3.15

K Rod: 3.25

Qualls: 3.26

Jenks: 3.37

Valverde: 3.53

Capps: 3.63

Lidge: 3.77