Idle speculation ~ Kenny Williams' Sox Future

[WCSox]

What the heck were you thinking letting her go?

 

It was my friend's girlfriend, not mine. Very nice gal, but not my type.

 

She hooked up my friend, myself, and another friend of ours with free tix to a Sox/Yankees game back in 2000 and gave us the VIP tour afterwards (I called the 'pen from the visitor's dugout).

 

[Quin]

I honestly see the JR-Kenny-Hahn-Ozzie group being together as long as JR is owner of the team.

 

Then it depends on what happens from there.

[striker]

We've missed the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years ( two of those years being sub .500). And thank god that kid called heads (I think it was heads) when determining who would get homefield in the event of a tiebreaker game (I think it's safe to assume we get slaughtered if we have to play the tiebreaker game in Minny). I give Kenny all the credit in the world for putting the '05 team together. And I think he's a good GM. But I wouldn't say he's kept us around the top.

We missed the playoffs but KW has put together good teams IMO. The players just haven't come through. I personally love KW as our GM and would hate to see him go.

[iamshack]

I honestly see the JR-Kenny-Hahn-Ozzie group being together as long as JR is owner of the team.

 

Then it depends on what happens from there.

I think Hahn might be scooped up by someone else within the next year or two.

[sircaffey]

But you really would be hard-pressed to argue how KW was better than Terry Ryan, except for that 2005 season. On a consistent basis, and especially taking into consideration payroll, Ryan beats him hands-down. Then again, the biggest move for that franchise was a non-move, them "lucking" into Mauer when the Cubs took Prior. Thanks to that move, they inherited the best young player in the game at the most important position. Even without Morneau, they were able to make the playoffs, and with Scott Baker as their "ace." Very impressive, although Smith has been a pretty lousy GM, comparatively.

 

The Twins chose Mauer over Prior. They had the #1 overall pick.

[iamshack]

The Twins chose Mauer over Prior. They had the #1 overall pick.

Good catch.

That said, there really was no choice involved. They couldn't sign Prior and knew it.

[Chisoxfn]

I honestly see the JR-Kenny-Hahn-Ozzie group being together as long as JR is owner of the team.

 

Then it depends on what happens from there.

Hahn is too good of an asst. GM not to get a job one day. I figure him and Cora will be out in the next couple years, Cora as a mgr, Hahn as a GM.

 

Its just a matter of time. In fact, I believe Hahn could have already taken a job, but he's happy in Chicago and has his family here so he doesnt' want to leave unless he gets a very good opportunity (ie, not the Pirates, haha).

[chisoxt]

Hahn is too good of an asst. GM not to get a job one day. I figure him and Cora will be out in the next couple years, Cora as a mgr, Hahn as a GM.

 

Its just a matter of time. In fact, I believe Hahn could have already taken a job, but he's happy in Chicago and has his family here so he doesnt' want to leave unless he gets a very good opportunity (ie, not the Pirates, haha).

 

I for one hope that KW will be kicked upstairs soon and Hahn assumes control of the team. Face it, 05 was great but it was fluke. Since that time, Kenny has used the approach of leveraging prospects for older veteran types who have bigger contracts. Eventually, in order to have repeated success at CONTENDING we have to eventually develop a strong farm system where we not only develop good players but maybe actually keep a few of them. With the decline of hormone and amphetamine use, baseball to a large extent is reverting back to old days when power wasn't as important as pure fundamental baseball skills like speed, defense, on-base %, etc..

 

Things worked out OK in the last few years when we had the gate and advertisers to support a larger payroll, but with some bad seasons recently and a poor economy, I do not see Kenny's strategy of acquiring older and more expensive players , whether through free agency or trading prospects, as being sustainable. Sure getting Jake Peavy was great and our rotation is shaping up to be awesome next year but what about the rest of the team? I see us leading the league in quality starts but finishing in third place. What about the other holes on the team?

 

I know that as a fan, I am in the minority here, but I think that future success will hinge on a younger team developed from within.

[BearSox]

I think KW is mediocre at best. Love ya for 05, but lets face it, we've been a very mediocre team for the majority of KW's run as GM.

[knightni]

Firing the old scouting director is one of the best things that KW has done.

 

The Sox finally have a chance to build with their own youth. - That's how the Twins do it.

[greg775]

Subjective? That doesnt make any sense at all. How do you make a team appear to be playing with passion? The team either performs or it does not. There is nothing Ozzie can do to make his players do anything while on the field, he puts them in position to succeed and once the first pitch is thrown it is up to them to perform up to their abilities.

 

I can see your point. I just thought we were dead men walking all last season. Pods being a buffoon on the basepaths, inability to have even one significant winning streak.

I guess it is all talent on the field. I just sensed again that our guys were a bunch of zombies much of the season. I guess you are right. You perform or you don't. I guess it was just a blah season because of talent.

[kev211]

I for one hope that KW will be kicked upstairs soon and Hahn assumes control of the team. Face it, 05 was great but it was fluke. Since that time, Kenny has used the approach of leveraging prospects for older veteran types who have bigger contracts. Eventually, in order to have repeated success at CONTENDING we have to eventually develop a strong farm system where we not only develop good players but maybe actually keep a few of them. With the decline of hormone and amphetamine use, baseball to a large extent is reverting back to old days when power wasn't as important as pure fundamental baseball skills like speed, defense, on-base %, etc..

Things worked out OK in the last few years when we had the gate and advertisers to support a larger payroll, but with some bad seasons recently and a poor economy, I do not see Kenny's strategy of acquiring older and more expensive players , whether through free agency or trading prospects, as being sustainable. Sure getting Jake Peavy was great and our rotation is shaping up to be awesome next year but what about the rest of the team? I see us leading the league in quality starts but finishing in third place. What about the other holes on the team?

 

I know that as a fan, I am in the minority here, but I think that future success will hinge on a younger team developed from within.

Look at our farm system during 2007, and look at it now.

Edited November 30, 2009 by kev211

[Princess Dye]

What about the other holes on the team?

 

If you're low on money, then we have the exact holes you would want to have... DH and LF. There are so many sluggers out there that may have worn out their welcome or need a change of scenery.

 

I can understand why this would be seen as simplistic, but my goal is playoffs...and hopefully our staff is going to be good enough to support a slightly above average offense...and take it to and through the playoffs. To get to 'slightly above avg' offense, we need some respectable OBP hitters in LF/DH.

 

There are bigger challenges out there to have.

 

You can call leadoff a missing spot, but looking leaguewide, you could answer that with Beckham and be a lot better off than other teams.

 

My concern is that defense is still a hole, but there's no question it has improved since the beginning of last year.

Edited November 30, 2009 by Princess Dye

[Jordan4life_2007]

Look at our farm system during 2007, and look at it now.

 

That's not saying a whole lot considering how bad it was in 2007. There was really nowhere to go but up. But KW and Co. recognized this was a major problem and took action. From managerial changes to an obvious change in drafting philosophy. It's still going to take a few years to recover from the putrid drafts of 2000-2006.

[kev211]

That's not saying a whole lot considering how bad it was in 2007. There was really nowhere to go but up. But KW and Co. recognized this was a major problem and took action. From managerial changes to an obvious change in drafting philosophy. It's still going to take a few years to recover from the putrid drafts of 2000-2006.

And I was just pointing out the KW is doing exactly what he wanted him to do. Building a farm system.

Edited November 30, 2009 by kev211

[caulfield12]

I for one hope that KW will be kicked upstairs soon and Hahn assumes control of the team. Face it, 05 was great but it was fluke. Since that time, Kenny has used the approach of leveraging prospects for older veteran types who have bigger contracts. Eventually, in order to have repeated success at CONTENDING we have to eventually develop a strong farm system where we not only develop good players but maybe actually keep a few of them. With the decline of hormone and amphetamine use, baseball to a large extent is reverting back to old days when power wasn't as important as pure fundamental baseball skills like speed, defense, on-base %, etc..

 

Things worked out OK in the last few years when we had the gate and advertisers to support a larger payroll, but with some bad seasons recently and a poor economy, I do not see Kenny's strategy of acquiring older and more expensive players , whether through free agency or trading prospects, as being sustainable. Sure getting Jake Peavy was great and our rotation is shaping up to be awesome next year but what about the rest of the team? I see us leading the league in quality starts but finishing in third place. What about the other holes on the team?

 

I know that as a fan, I am in the minority here, but I think that future success will hinge on a younger team developed from within.

 

 

First of all, I think just because Hahn is very good with the business side of things, that's certainly no guarantee of success in the much more high-profile world and microscope of being an MLB GM.

 

Look at what happened with Dan Evans in LA and how short his tenure was in that position...I would say at the time, there were many or perhaps even more who preferred him over KW.

 

The reason KW has adopted his plans over the last decade are partly due to the traditional White Sox fan base (not supporting rebuilding or even .500 teams)...the competition with the Cubs for the media spotlight...the desire to "entertain" the fans with shows of offensive output/HR's...and his overall lack of patience and desire to "go for it" each and every year. Lots of GM's would be very hesitant to make the Rios move, but KW did it because he has the full faith and confidence of Reinsdorf. But I think 15-20 GM's would never dream of pulling the trigger for fear of that move haunting them in the future and bringing a premature end to their "honeymoon" period.

 

The fact of the matter is that KW and Ozzie hate losing as much, if not more than, most White Sox fans (although some are arguing that Ozzie lost his fire and chip on his shoulder in 2005). That's all you can ask for.

 

As another example, look at Bill Smith in Minnesota. He was a brilliant farm director but has been pretty abysmal as a GM, in terms of the moves that he has made. Now the major league teams have outperformed his GM performance (same thing happened with the Sox in 2008) for two years in a row, but I don't think any Twins fan would possibly argue he's been anything but a shadow of former GM Terry Ryan.

 

Now just because Dan Evans and Bill Smith haven't worked so well...that doesn't mean HAHN will fail as well. But beware of the back-up QB momentum...90% of the time, you miss your first stringer when he's out, and the fans come to realize why he was the first-stringer in the beginning. I think the same will be said of KW and even Ozzie when they're gone and been replaced by others within the Sox organization.

 

We will miss the KW swagger, his attitude reflected by his comments about the Tigers "being in a better position to compete with the Sox" after the Miguel Cabrera move....KW watched Dave Dombrowski (another former Sox front office guy) practically turn that organization into the Titanic in terms of the financial implications of that roster moving into 2010, and he didn't overspend but was careful/cautious, knowing he didn't have the team to win it all yet.

 

I think 2010 and 2011 will be much more significant for the eventual fates of KW and Ozzie than 2008/09 were, both feeling like transition years in turning over the roster.

 

 

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

First of all, I think just because Hahn is very good with the business side of things, that's certainly no guarantee of success in the much more high-profile world and microscope of being an MLB GM.

 

Look at what happened with Dan Evans in LA and how short his tenure was in that position...I would say at the time, there were many or perhaps even more who preferred him over KW.

 

The reason KW has adopted his plans over the last decade are partly due to the traditional White Sox fan base (not supporting rebuilding or even .500 teams)...the competition with the Cubs for the media spotlight...the desire to "entertain" the fans with shows of offensive output/HR's...and his overall lack of patience and desire to "go for it" each and every year. Lots of GM's would be very hesitant to make the Rios move, but KW did it because he has the full faith and confidence of Reinsdorf. But I think 15-20 GM's would never dream of pulling the trigger for fear of that move haunting them in the future and bringing a premature end to their "honeymoon" period.

 

The fact of the matter is that KW and Ozzie hate losing as much, if not more than, most White Sox fans (although some are arguing that Ozzie lost his fire and chip on his shoulder in 2005). That's all you can ask for.

 

As another example, look at Bill Smith in Minnesota. He was a brilliant farm director but has been pretty abysmal as a GM, in terms of the moves that he has made. Now the major league teams have outperformed his GM performance (same thing happened with the Sox in 2008) for two years in a row, but I don't think any Twins fan would possibly argue he's been anything but a shadow of former GM Terry Ryan.

 

Now just because Dan Evans and Bill Smith haven't worked so well...that doesn't mean HAHN will fail as well. But beware of the back-up QB momentum...90% of the time, you miss your first stringer when he's out, and the fans come to realize why he was the first-stringer in the beginning. I think the same will be said of KW and even Ozzie when they're gone and been replaced by others within the Sox organization.

 

We will miss the KW swagger, his attitude reflected by his comments about the Tigers "being in a better position to compete with the Sox" after the Miguel Cabrera move....KW watched Dave Dombrowski (another former Sox front office guy) practically turn that organization into the Titanic in terms of the financial implications of that roster moving into 2010, and he didn't overspend but was careful/cautious, knowing he didn't have the team to win it all yet.

 

I think 2010 and 2011 will be much more significant for the eventual fates of KW and Ozzie than 2008/09 were, both feeling like transition years in turning over the roster.

 

+1@caulfield. Solid post. Couldn't find anything I disagree with. KW has proven he can put together a world championship team. And the WAY he went about doing that was unique. But KW has yet to prove he can put together a consistent winner. And the thing that encourages me the most is he knows it. I think he's slowly but surely putting this team in position to go on an actual run of sustained success.

[caulfield12]

I might be wrong...but I'm not sure how well-supported a early 90's to mid 2000's run (like the Braves had) would be supported in terms of attendance.

 

The Braves only had one World Series title, and Braves fans really became bored with those teams falling short or not being built with all the components to win it all...maybe that's expecting too much, perhaps. It did take at least 8-10 years before the attendance really started to fall off, and I think a large part of that was due to the corporatization of the Braves, Ted Turner leaving day-to-day oversight and the fact that the really exciting teams and playoff appearances with that team happened in the early 90's through the mid to late 90's, then fans sort of lost interest and stopped coming in record numbers, and maybe the appeal of the new stadium (it's "okay") also started to wear off, too.

 

Of course, any Sox fan would love to have that type of home-grown dynasty (Glavine, Smoltz by trade, Avery and then acquiring Maddux). My question would be how long White Sox fans would "pack the park" and pay rising prices if the White Sox continually flamed out in the first round of the playoffs, like more consistent franchises such as the Twins (and previously) the A's have done? Would there be diminishing returns with attendance until the White Sox won another World Series again?

 

I think the closest example we can aim for is that of the Angels' sustained success, their fight under Moreno pull up almost even with the Dodgers in that market, consistent playoff appearances, that's setting the bar about as high as you can.

Edited December 2, 2009 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

I might be wrong...but I'm not sure how well-supported a early 90's to mid 2000's run (like the Braves had) would be supported in terms of attendance.

 

The Braves only had one World Series title, and Braves fans really became bored with those teams falling short or not being built with all the components to win it all...maybe that's expecting too much, perhaps. It did take at least 8-10 years before the attendance really started to fall off, and I think a large part of that was due to the corporatization of the Braves, Ted Turner leaving day-to-day oversight and the fact that the really exciting teams and playoff appearances with that team happened in the early 90's through the mid to late 90's, then fans sort of lost interest and stopped coming in record numbers, and maybe the appeal of the new stadium (it's "okay") also started to wear off, too.

 

Of course, any Sox fan would love to have that type of home-grown dynasty (Glavine, Smoltz by trade, Avery and then acquiring Maddux). My question would be how long White Sox fans would "pack the park" and pay rising prices if the White Sox continually flamed out in the first round of the playoffs, like more consistent franchises such as the Twins (and previously) the A's have done? Would there be diminishing returns with attendance until the White Sox won another World Series again?

 

I think the closest example we can aim for is that of the Angels' sustained success, their fight under Moreno pull up almost even with the Dodgers in that market, consistent playoff appearances, that's setting the bar about as high as you can.

If the White Sox ever went on a run like the Braves did, attendance wouldn't be an issue. White Sox fans will never get bored with winning.

[knightni]

I think the closest example we can aim for is that of the Angels' sustained success, their fight under Moreno pull up almost even with the Dodgers in that market, consistent playoff appearances, that's setting the bar about as high as you can.

 

The thing about the Angels, though, is that they play in the smallest division in baseball and they are clearly the largest market and have the most payroll flexibility to fanbase in that division.

 

Barring a run or two by Seattle, they should win that division every year almost by default.

 

Comparison:

 

(2008 Payroll)

 

Angels 119,216,333 - Tigers 138,685,197

Mariners 117,993,982 - White Sox 121,152,667

Rangers 68,239,551 - Indians 78,970,067

A's - 47,967,126 - Twins 62,182,767

xxxxxxxxxxxx - Royals 58,245,500

 

The Ms had some bad contracts (Bedard, Beltre) to balloon their payroll up, but LAA has a definite advantage in overall talent in that division.

[Kalapse]

The thing about the Angels, though, is that they play in the smallest division in baseball and they are clearly the largest market and have the most payroll flexibility to fanbase in that division.

 

Barring a run or two by Seattle, they should win that division every year almost by default.

 

Comparison:

 

(2008 Payroll)

 

Angels 119,216,333 - Tigers 138,685,197

Mariners 117,993,982 - White Sox 121,152,667

Rangers 68,239,551 - Indians 78,970,067

A's - 47,967,126 - Twins 62,182,767

xxxxxxxxxxxx - Royals 58,245,500

 

The Ms had some bad contracts (Bedard, Beltre) to balloon their payroll up, but LAA has a definite advantage in overall talent in that division.

Beltre's contract was not a bad one, he earned every penny. Richie Sexson? Horrible contract. Kenji Johjima? Bad contract. Jarrod Washburn? Very Bad contract. Jose Vidro? Stupid and bad. Carlos Silva? Ridiculously bad. Miguel Batista? One of the worst imaginable. Adrian Beltre was one of the few to actually earn his money.

[caulfield12]

Maybe it was more based on "expectation" and the numbers Beltre put up offensively before going to the M's.

 

He had that one, huge breakout season and parlayed it into a big payday but never came close to duplicating those numbers....defensively, he's better than Crede, there's no question about that aspect of his game, his arm strength, etc.

 

Sexson was the worst of all of those, although Washburn in close. On second thought, perhaps Silva!

 

Vidro had some good years at least offensively. Johjima was more about the ownership group and their commitment to continue to "sell" to the Japanese market and make further inroads, but that was a reach.

 

 

When you look at the advantage we SHOULD have over the other markets (Detroit is being forced to sell off Edwin Jackson and/or Granderson because they were spending beyond their means) in our division, it's comparable to the LA Angels situation. The only wildcards are whether the Twins can keep Mauer AND Morneau with their new stadium and whether the Indians will bounce back with a new manager.

Edited December 2, 2009 by caulfield12

[Kalapse]

Maybe it was more based on "expectation" and the numbers Beltre put up offensively before going to the M's.

 

He had that one, huge breakout season and parlayed it into a big payday but never came close to duplicating those numbers....defensively, he's better than Crede, there's no question about that aspect of his game, his arm strength, etc.

 

Sexson was the worst of all of those, although Washburn in close. On second thought, perhaps Silva!

 

Vidro had some good years at least offensively. Johjima was more about the ownership group and their commitment to continue to "sell" to the Japanese market and make further inroads, but that was a reach.

 

 

When you look at the advantage we SHOULD have over the other markets (Detroit is being forced to sell off Edwin Jackson and/or Granderson because they were spending beyond their means) in our division, it's comparable to the LA Angels situation. The only wildcards are whether the Twins can keep Mauer AND Morneau with their new stadium and whether the Indians will bounce back with a new manager.

That's because his deal wasn't exorbitant, if he were paid fully based on that one huge season he would have gotten significantly more. His 2004 season was one of the best single season performances by a 3B in baseball history and he only got $64M in free agency, Carlos Beltran got $119M that same offseason and just one year later Konerko got $60M. He's been the best defensive 3B in the game over the past 5 seasons, put up very good offensive numbers considering his home ballpark and brought plenty more to the table including his underrated speed and athleticism. You'll have a hard time finding many Mariners fans that will complain about that Adrian Beltre contract. If he were expected to produce every year like he did in '04 then he would have made twice as much.

 

Vidro only spent 2 years in Seattle, his first year he put up a .775 OPS as the full time DH, he was released by August of 2008 due to being one of the worst players in baseball. Don't underrate that Miguel Batista deal either, they gave him $25M over 3 years. He was in the rotation for 1.5 years and didn't manage a sub 1.5 WHIP in any of the 3 seasons in Seattle.

[Jordan4life_2007]

That's because his deal wasn't exorbitant, if he were paid fully based on that one huge season he would have gotten significantly more. His 2004 season was one of the best single season performances by a 3B in baseball history and he only got $64M in free agency, Carlos Beltran got $119M that same offseason and just one year later Konerko got $60M. He's been the best defensive 3B in the game over the past 5 seasons, put up very good offensive numbers considering his home ballpark and brought plenty more to the table including his underrated speed and athleticism. You'll have a hard time finding many Mariners fans that will complain about that Adrian Beltre contract. If he were expected to produce every year like he did in '04 then he would have made twice as much.

 

Vidro only spent 2 years in Seattle, his first year he put up a .775 OPS as the full time DH, he was released by August of 2008 due to being one of the worst players in baseball. Don't underrate that Miguel Batista deal either, they gave him $25M over 3 years. He was in the rotation for 1.5 years and didn't manage a sub 1.5 WHIP in any of the 3 seasons in Seattle.

 

I thought I was the only one that thought the Beltre contract was nowhere near as bad as many made it out to be. He's a fine ballplayer.

[iamshack]

At the time, the contract was pretty steep, especially considering Beltre had always been a player with the tools and the talent, but never quite put together the seasons with the Dodgers that many thought he was capable of. He was constantly on peoples' "sleeper" lists. Then all the sudden he busts out in his FA year in an era marred by obvious steroid users. Let's just say there were some questions...I remember many people think Seattle overpaid to get him to sign there. Additionally, we're talking about a time before advanced metrics were widespread and so I don't really believe his defense is valued as much then as it turned out to be worth.

 

My feeling is that it was a very risky signing that ended up panning out, but not necessarily for the reasons the Mariners thought it would...