Interesting Sox Prospect List

[KaneCoKeith]

Found this over at Diamond Futures. At least it offers slightly different views.

 

 

Team #26 - Chicago White Sox

[WHITESOXRANDY]

I thought this was really good and I agree on the overhyping of Jordan Danks. I don't think that he is close to being a solid Major Leaguer right now.

[danman31]

Found this over at Diamond Futures. At least it offers slightly different views.

 

 

Team #26 - Chicago White Sox

Welcome to Soxtalk!

 

That was a good read even if I strongly disagree with it. You won't find a better pro-Viciedo argument than they gave. Danks isn't close to ready, but I still think with his defense he can be a solid CF. He just needs to be competent offensively and I believe he still can do that.

[NorthSideSox72]

Welcome to Soxtalk!

 

That was a good read even if I strongly disagree with it. You won't find a better pro-Viciedo argument than they gave. Danks isn't close to ready, but I still think with his defense he can be a solid CF. He just needs to be competent offensively and I believe he still can do that.

Yes, always good to read a new source of information like this. I read his descriptions of these supposed performance scores, and I don't necessarily agree with his methodology, or his resulting lists... but it was still a good read.

 

[KaneCoKeith]

Yes, always good to read a new source of information like this. I read his descriptions of these supposed performance scores, and I don't necessarily agree with his methodology, or his resulting lists... but it was still a good read.

 

 

A couple of anecdotal points of reference...

 

I have been reading the stuff of the main guy over there since 2000-2001 when he was the lead writer for a site called 'Top Prospect Alert'. He caught my attention because he recognized Albert Pujols as an 'elite' talent--nearly a year before anyone else.

 

He has been a tough read, as a White Sox fan, both because of his 'Keith Lawish' cynicism/directness and toughness on Kenny Williams and Duane Shaffer. That being said, he was an early adopter of Mark Buerhle, was high on Alexi Ramirez and Gordon Beckham last year, and I think John Danks might be his son the way he touts him. I can't speak to the methodology, because they always seem to stop just short in explaining the details behind it, but they do produce quantitative ratings that result in 'interesting' analysis that has historically produced as good as results as anyone else out there.

 

I'd love to see someone one-day do a historical study of the accuracy of all of the, so-called, 'experts' out there.

[NorthSideSox72]

A couple of anecdotal points of reference...

 

I have been reading the stuff of the main guy over there since 2000-2001 when he was the lead writer for a site called 'Top Prospect Alert'. He caught my attention because he recognized Albert Pujols as an 'elite' talent--nearly a year before anyone else.

 

He has been a tough read, as a White Sox fan, both because of his 'Keith Lawish' cynicism/directness and toughness on Kenny Williams and Duane Shaffer. That being said, he was an early adopter of Mark Buerhle, was high on Alexi Ramirez and Gordon Beckham last year, and I think John Danks might be his son the way he touts him. I can't speak to the methodology, because they always seem to stop just short in explaining the details behind it, but they do produce quantitative ratings that result in 'interesting' analysis that has historically produced as good as results as anyone else out there.

 

I'd love to see someone one-day do a historical study of the accuracy of all of the, so-called, 'experts' out there.

I think a study like that would reveal that any and all experts are wrong, a lot. And so are we. Nothing burns me up more than people who state future events or outcomes as fact, when clearly they cannot be. In that regard, I do like this guy you linked to, as he is very realistic in stating things as probabilities, not absolute. I commend him for it.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I like the upper portions of the list mostly, but the bottom part is pretty confusing.

 

Overall however I love the list because of this part:

With Gonzalez, you start with good defensive skills that should allow him to stay behind the plate.

 

I'd like to know a little bit more about these defensive skills and what they're comprised of, i.e. arm strength, hands, release, etc. but that alone is a pretty big statement.

 

I have to say I really like the Hudson-Viciedo-Mitchell order to the top-3. I would go Flowers-Hudson-Viciedo, but I like Mitchell, Hudson, and Viciedo all more than Flowers, so I like that a lot. It's kind of ballsy to rank Flowers after those three (even though I can agree with that) and it's also pretty ballsy to rank Morel ahead of Danks too, which I also agree with. I'd rank Danks over Morel personally because of upside, but Morel's floor is quite a bit higher IMO and Morel appears to be the safer bet to turn into a valuable Major Leaguer.

 

But yeah, the bottom parts I really don't agree with at all. One thing that is especially confusing is why CJ is at 11 and Torres at 16. If he's going by upside + readiness, then I understand CJ at 11, but Carlos Torres shouldn't even be on there, especially ranked above all those other guys. And of course there are all kinds of crazy rankings, like Nathan Jones at 31, Trace Thompson at 17, the entire Griffith/Heidenreich/Infante/Upchurch/Leesman group missing the top-32, etc. And it goes on.

[NorthSideSox72]

I like the upper portions of the list mostly, but the bottom part is pretty confusing.

 

Overall however I love the list because of this part:

 

 

I'd like to know a little bit more about these defensive skills and what they're comprised of, i.e. arm strength, hands, release, etc. but that alone is a pretty big statement.

 

I have to say I really like the Hudson-Viciedo-Mitchell order to the top-3. I would go Flowers-Hudson-Viciedo, but I like Mitchell, Hudson, and Viciedo all more than Flowers, so I like that a lot. It's kind of ballsy to rank Flowers after those three (even though I can agree with that) and it's also pretty ballsy to rank Morel ahead of Danks too, which I also agree with. I'd rank Danks over Morel personally because of upside, but Morel's floor is quite a bit higher IMO and Morel appears to be the safer bet to turn into a valuable Major Leaguer.

 

But yeah, the bottom parts I really don't agree with at all. One thing that is especially confusing is why CJ is at 11 and Torres at 16. If he's going by upside + readiness, then I understand CJ at 11, but Carlos Torres shouldn't even be on there, especially ranked above all those other guys. And of course there are all kinds of crazy rankings, like Nathan Jones at 31, Trace Thompson at 17, the entire Griffith/Heidenreich/Infante/Upchurch/Leesman group missing the top-32, etc. And it goes on.

 

Yeah, lots near the bottom seem off to me, but its such an inexact science when you get to lower level guys. I mean, I really like what I see from, and read about, Stephen Sauer, but he's mentioned as an after-thought here.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

Very impressive piece. And this is an interesting site. I pretty much get all of my minor league info from BA. But I'll definitely be peepin' this site in the future.

[Quin]

I liked that list...only thing I disagree about is Danks, because I think he could turn into a really good defensive OF with a little above average bat.

[SoxAce]

I believe that was a co-run site that I made my first post on ST here.. Irony. Welcome to ST man. :cheers

 

Interesting read none-the-less.

Edited December 4, 2009 by SoxAce

[BigEdWalsh]

That was a good read indeed. I didn't know anything about this Miguel Gonzalez kid. He'll be interesting one to follow.

[bighurt4life]

I definitely enjoyed reading some different opinions about our prospects. I disagree with his assessment of Flowers defense, it's no secret that he was voted the best defensive catcher in the SOU league by the league managers. That tells me all I need to know about his ability behind the plate. Also, he's only been a catcher for 2 or 2 1/2 years, if he can improve that much in that short a time then he's definitely got the goods to stick behind the plate.

 

Some of this other picks were surprising too, for one, I don't think that Santeliz is really that highly regarded by our front office, If you want a guy with a dynamite FB and nothing else then look at Sergio Santos who can pump it in at about 99mph. Also, having Remenowsky and Jones rated so low is crazy. Remenowsky absolutely dominated this season.

[Ozzie Ball]

I definitely enjoyed reading some different opinions about our prospects. I disagree with his assessment of Flowers defense, it's no secret that he was voted the best defensive catcher in the SOU league by the league managers. That tells me all I need to know about his ability behind the plate. Also, he's only been a catcher for 2 or 2 1/2 years, if he can improve that much in that short a time then he's definitely got the goods to stick behind the plate.

 

Some of this other picks were surprising too, for one, I don't think that Santeliz is really that highly regarded by our front office, If you want a guy with a dynamite FB and nothing else then look at Sergio Santos who can pump it in at about 99mph. Also, having Remenowsky and Jones rated so low is crazy. Remenowsky absolutely dominated this season.

If you believe Phil Rogers then the organization is very high on Santeliz and this is also the first time I've seen him listed as a one pitch pitcher. From what I've read, his slider is supposed to be pretty good, maybe even plus.

[simba43]

If you believe Phil Rogers then the organization is very high on Santeliz and this is also the first time I've seen him listed as a one pitch pitcher. From what I've read, his slider is supposed to be pretty good, maybe even plus.

I read that some where also .

[simba43]

but it was a good read and gave some good points .

[NorthSideSox72]

I definitely enjoyed reading some different opinions about our prospects. I disagree with his assessment of Flowers defense, it's no secret that he was voted the best defensive catcher in the SOU league by the league managers. That tells me all I need to know about his ability behind the plate. Also, he's only been a catcher for 2 or 2 1/2 years, if he can improve that much in that short a time then he's definitely got the goods to stick behind the plate.

 

Some of this other picks were surprising too, for one, I don't think that Santeliz is really that highly regarded by our front office, If you want a guy with a dynamite FB and nothing else then look at Sergio Santos who can pump it in at about 99mph. Also, having Remenowsky and Jones rated so low is crazy. Remenowsky absolutely dominated this season.

Remenwsky was indeed dominant, but keep in mind he was an NDFA signing, and he was 22 when he started. 23 this past season, in A ball. No doubt he has some potential, and I do think he's a prospect worth watching, but a lot of prospect guru types will tend to dismiss or downgrade such a pitcher based on his age and not being drafted (the latter actually is something I agree with, but not so much the former). If he dominates again in 2010, in High A and/or AA, you will start to see more people take notice. For now, there seems to be a wait and see approach.

 

[knightni]

Remenowsky needs to succeed in AA next year to be taken seriously as a top prospect.

[NorthSideSox72]

Remenowsky needs to succeed in AA next year to be taken seriously as a top prospect.

He needs to succeed next year, regardless of where. The Sox organization does indeed see potential in him - they signed him, and according to Dan, they have a "plan" for him. So whatever the plan is for 2010 - High A all year, High A then a mid-season promotion to AA, or maybe straight to AA - he needs to succeed within that plan.

 

[SoxAce]

Here is Sickle's Top 20. *Albeit subject to change of course* Edited December 10, 2009 by SoxAce

[danman31]

Here's fangraph's.

 

I know someone posted the draft reviews from them, but I figured I'd keep the prospects lists in one thread.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Here is Sickle's Top 20. *Albeit subject to change of course*

 

Seems that no matter how many different lists come out that the common consensus is that Jared Mitchell has HUGE upside. I can't wait to track this guy next year.

[NorthSideSox72]

Here is Sickle's Top 20. *Albeit subject to change of course*

I might have thought better of it if he had spelled Trayce Thompson's name correctly before bashing him.

 

Seriously though, seems like a decent list. I tend to disagree on depth - I think the system lacks position player depth, but I see a fairly significant bulk of pitching talent in the low to mid-levels.

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

So Jose Martinez has fallen so far he doesn't even appear in the mentions at the end anymore?

[NorthSideSox72]

So Jose Martinez has fallen so far he doesn't even appear in the mentions at the end anymore?

He has missed a ton of time to injury. Played half a season in Kanny in 2008, and missed all of 2009. He'll turn 22 in 2010, in A Ball. He's got a steep ladder to climb at this point.