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Is a BJ Upton/Nick Johnson Combo Realistic?

Marty34

By Marty34
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Marty34 Grand Master

Marty34

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Lots of moving parts here, but the two best fits for the Sox offense might still be in play. One rumor has it that the Red Sox Signed Lackey in part to be able to free up pitching to deal for Gonzalez. That would take the Red Sox out of the market for a 1B.

 

As far as Upton goes, offer the Rays the same thing you offered the Padres for Gonzalez and see if they bite. That seems like KW strategy when it comes to deals and it's not a bad one if you think about it. "Players/prospects A, B, and C were offered for Gonzalez, you're getting a better deal right out of the box because we're only asking for Upton" :-) Hudson, Flowers, + might be able to get it done ...

 

9 Upton

3 Johnson

4 Beckham

7 Quentin

B Konerko

2 AJ

8 Rios

5 Teahan

6 Ramirez

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hitlesswonder Mentor

hitlesswonder

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QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Dec 14, 2009 -> 07:57 PM)
All of those prospects for Upton? No.

 

It would take at least Hudson, Flowers and a major league bullpen arm to get Upton. People don't trade talent for trash (usually). If the Sox want to contend in 2010, they have to decimate what's left of their farm system to do it. They don't have money, so they have to use prospects to acquire players. And I think they should do so quickly. If they decide to hang on to a bunch of B prospects and have a major league offense with (for example) Pods at DH and Andruw Jones starting in the OF that's just wasting all the effort that went into building the current pitching staff.

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SoxFan1 Grand Master

SoxFan1

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Dec 14, 2009 -> 08:51 PM)
Lots of moving parts here, but the two best fits for the Sox offense might still be in play. One rumor has it that the Red Sox Signed Lackey in part to be able to free up pitching to deal for Gonzalez. That would take the Red Sox out of the market for a 1B.

 

As far as Upton goes, offer the Rays the same thing you offered the Padres for Gonzalez and see if they bite. That seems like KW strategy when it comes to deals and it's not a bad one if you think about it. "Players/prospects A, B, and C were offered for Gonzalez, you're getting a better deal right out of the box because we're only asking for Upton" :-) Hudson, Flowers, + might be able to get it done ...

 

9 Upton

3 Johnson

4 Beckham

7 Quentin

B Konerko

2 AJ

8 Rios

5 Teahan

6 Ramirez

I'd totally be in favor of this. Adding Upton and Johnson to this team would be awesome. The OBP potential of that top 4 is scary.

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SoxAce Grand Master

SoxAce

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QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Dec 14, 2009 -> 09:41 PM)
I'd totally be in favor of this. Adding Upton and Johnson to this team would be awesome. The OBP potential of that top 4 is scary.

 

Agreed. Any idea with Nick Johnson in it is a win in my eyes, and I love me some Upton. Hell even if it was Crawford instead (though like I've said before he is still very overrated) I still wouldn't mind it at all.

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witesoxfan Grand Master

witesoxfan

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QUOTE (striker @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 08:26 AM)
I think Winn could come close to matching Upton's offensive upside .300/.350. And he wouldn't cost our two best prospects. He'd be a stop gap until Danks or Mitchell are ready.

 

BJ Upton's offensive upside is not .300/.350. It's not even close to that. In 2008 he put up .273/.383/.401/.784. In 07 he put up .300/.386/.508/.894. BJ Upton's upside is to the friggin moon. If he hits what he's capable of hitting, he's a .850-.900 OPS bat that would be good enough to hit cleanup in some teams' lineups, and he'd be hitting leadoff here. His split stats last year are similar to Randy Winn, but he's also more than 10 years younger than Randy Winn too. Randy Winn is falling off and is going to be a 4th outfielder or retired within the next 2-3 years whereas Upton still has the capability of being one of the top 10 players in all of baseball.

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Balta1701 Grand Master

Balta1701

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 10:32 AM)
BJ Upton's offensive upside is not .300/.350. It's not even close to that. In 2008 he put up .273/.383/.401/.784. In 07 he put up .300/.386/.508/.894. BJ Upton's upside is to the friggin moon. If he hits what he's capable of hitting, he's a .850-.900 OPS bat that would be good enough to hit cleanup in some teams' lineups, and he'd be hitting leadoff here. His split stats last year are similar to Randy Winn, but he's also more than 10 years younger than Randy Winn too. Randy Winn is falling off and is going to be a 4th outfielder or retired within the next 2-3 years whereas Upton still has the capability of being one of the top 10 players in all of baseball.

But you gotta come back to...what are the odds of him actually making himself into a 900 OPS guy? When you look at his full stat line, he has some serious issues that show up. He's in the top 10 in strikeouts every year. That one year where he hit .300 he had to put up a .393 BABIP to do so; while that certainly can mean he was raking the ball, he's put up more reasonable numbers from .310-.340 in his other years. For him to put up an .850-.900 OPS with the number of times he strikes out, he really needs to have everything he hits be a solid line drive. It certainly seems to me like these high strikeout guys that teams are using to lead off (Sizemore, Granderson, Upton) are turing out to be very prone to long-term slumps that can take their team down with them.

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WCSox Grand Master

WCSox

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 07:37 AM)
But you gotta come back to...what are the odds of him actually making himself into a 900 OPS guy? When you look at his full stat line, he has some serious issues that show up. He's in the top 10 in strikeouts every year. That one year where he hit .300 he had to put up a .393 BABIP to do so; while that certainly can mean he was raking the ball, he's put up more reasonable numbers from .310-.340 in his other years. For him to put up an .850-.900 OPS with the number of times he strikes out, he really needs to have everything he hits be a solid line drive. It certainly seems to me like these high strikeout guys that teams are using to lead off (Sizemore, Granderson, Upton) are turing out to be very prone to long-term slumps that can take their team down with them.

 

Not only that, but you need to wonder about a guy who didn't respond to shoulder surgery and actually LOST power 6-9 months after his labrum was repaired. And not only did he lose power, but his OBP fell 70 points after he was supposedly healthy again.

 

There's no way that I give up my best two prospects for a guy like that until I see some evidence that he can still hit. One also has to wonder why the Rays would want to move him now - at his lowest point of value - while he's affordable and under team control for the next three seasons.

 

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striker Mentor

striker

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 15, 2009 -> 04:32 PM)
BJ Upton's offensive upside is not .300/.350. It's not even close to that. In 2008 he put up .273/.383/.401/.784. In 07 he put up .300/.386/.508/.894. BJ Upton's upside is to the friggin moon. If he hits what he's capable of hitting, he's a .850-.900 OPS bat that would be good enough to hit cleanup in some teams' lineups, and he'd be hitting leadoff here. His split stats last year are similar to Randy Winn, but he's also more than 10 years younger than Randy Winn too. Randy Winn is falling off and is going to be a 4th outfielder or retired within the next 2-3 years whereas Upton still has the capability of being one of the top 10 players in all of baseball.

I agree Upton has alot more potential and is younger. But Winn will cost you $2M less and no prospects.

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witesoxfan Grand Master

witesoxfan

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QUOTE (WCSox @ Dec 17, 2009 -> 10:04 AM)
There's no way that I give up my best two prospects for a guy like that until I see some evidence that he can still hit. One also has to wonder why the Rays would want to move him now - at his lowest point of value - while he's affordable and under team control for the next three seasons.

 

I can absolutely agree with this. I would give up 2 good prospects for him, but nothing close to my 2 very best prospects for him, and the Rays won't do that. I would say that some team is either going to overpay for him and see the results, or the Rays won't trade him. I see the latter as the more likely of the scenarios. And even more, the Rays are going to want to keep Jennings in the minors until June to avoid him becoming a Super-2 player, and they're going to need a full outfield until then.

 

I do think this is something that could be revisited come mid-June or July, but it's just water under the bridge right now.

 

QUOTE (striker @ Dec 17, 2009 -> 05:09 PM)
I agree Upton has alot more potential and is younger. But Winn will cost you $2M less and no prospects.

 

And he was awful last season and is older. Add on to it that the Sox really don't need another outfielder with Quentin, Pierre, Jones, Kotsay, Rios, and even De Aza all capable of playing the outfield. There's no reason to go out and spend money the Sox could use on something else for another outfielder who may not spend much money.

 

I don't mind Thome on a short-term deal because he was producing well last season and has produced solid numbers over the past 4 years, and I won't be surprised if Thome is brought back in January on a short-term deal if all of the Sox other plans fall through.

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