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Texsox

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QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Dec 21, 2009 -> 05:23 PM)
Foreign Intelligence

Really? It's entirely possible we're better at it, we're just facing a different kind of threat. 30 years ago the KGB and the Israelis appear to have thorougly broken several CIA and FBI agents, for example. Meanwhile, the ability of the government to gather electronic intelligence has likely gone up exponentially, because there's so much more electronic intelligence now and it all runs through our wires.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2009 -> 11:24 PM)
Really? It's entirely possible we're better at it, we're just facing a different kind of threat. 30 years ago the KGB and the Israelis appear to have thorougly broken several CIA and FBI agents, for example. Meanwhile, the ability of the government to gather electronic intelligence has likely gone up exponentially, because there's so much more electronic intelligence now and it all runs through our wires.

 

IRAQ

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2009 -> 07:44 PM)
There's only 1 sense in which that was a failure of intelligence...

 

There is also a case that the intelligence was correct, but key people ignore or mislead people about what it said.

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QUOTE (Tex @ Dec 21, 2009 -> 09:30 PM)
There is also a case that the intelligence was correct, but key people ignore or mislead people about what it said.

My specific goal there was to call the people at the top making the decisions unintelligent. Not to say anything about the intelligence gathering.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 22, 2009 -> 10:48 AM)
Sort of. The whole Curveball thing was a pretty big failure across the board, including at CIA.

Yeah, but even that was done out of a desire to tell policymakers (i.e. Cheney) what they want to hear - which is a management/bureaucratic failure, not a failure because we lacked some capability or didn't connect the dots when we should have. Not sure how well I explained that

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QUOTE (lostfan @ Dec 22, 2009 -> 10:50 AM)
Yeah, but even that was done out of a desire to tell policymakers (i.e. Cheney) what they want to hear - which is a management/bureaucratic failure, not a failure because we lacked some capability or didn't connect the dots when we should have. Not sure how well I explained that

Makes perfect sense to me, but I long ago agreed with that.

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QUOTE (lostfan @ Dec 22, 2009 -> 09:50 AM)
Yeah, but even that was done out of a desire to tell policymakers (i.e. Cheney) what they want to hear - which is a management/bureaucratic failure, not a failure because we lacked some capability or didn't connect the dots when we should have. Not sure how well I explained that

That's still an intelligence failure in my eyes. You can break it down and say the gathering part was OK, and that the analysis was good and bad, but how you report the information, and how much you do to cast the correct doubts, is key to the full cycle of intelligence provision. And the people wanting to make people happy were at various levels, not just frat boy at the top. Those professionals, in that role, should doubt EVERYTHING, not try to make a mountain of a mole hill.

 

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 22, 2009 -> 10:54 AM)
That's still an intelligence failure in my eyes. You can break it down and say the gathering part was OK, and that the analysis was good and bad, but how you report the information, and how much you do to cast the correct doubts, is key to the full cycle of intelligence provision. And the people wanting to make people happy were at various levels, not just frat boy at the top. Those professionals, in that role, should doubt EVERYTHING, not try to make a mountain of a mole hill.

I know and I don't disagree with that or absolve them of blame, but it's still relatively minor and not that hard to fix because it's not some system-wide problem.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 21, 2009 -> 04:24 PM)
Really? It's entirely possible we're better at it, we're just facing a different kind of threat. 30 years ago the KGB and the Israelis appear to have thorougly broken several CIA and FBI agents, for example. Meanwhile, the ability of the government to gather electronic intelligence has likely gone up exponentially, because there's so much more electronic intelligence now and it all runs through our wires.

 

 

 

But isn't our Humint worse, or the worst it has ever been?

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