Failed terrorist attack in Detroit

[StrangeSox]

Ditto universal healthcare, welfare, war on drugs, war on poverty, guns, etc.

 

 

 

I'll give you drugs because I think we make things worse with that. But healthcare, welfare and poverty prevention (which are all closely related anyway) impact more than a few hundred/ thousand lives a decade.

[Jenksismyhero]

 

I'll give you drugs because I think we make things worse with that. But healthcare, welfare and poverty prevention (which are all closely related anyway) impact more than a few hundred/ thousand lives a decade.

 

The TRILLIONS of dollars we spend on these things is wonky compared to the number of lives it saves. I mean, if we're being utilitarians here, the cost of a human life is only so much...

[Balta1701]

The TRILLIONS of dollars we spend on these things is wonky compared to the number of lives it saves. I mean, if we're being utilitarians here, the cost of a human life is only so much...

Wait just a second...how many lives do you think would be lost per year if we reduced healthcare spending to zero?

 

I can see arguing that we spend too much on health care, I've done that myself (see other thread) but you seem to be arguing that the full couple trillion we spend every year on health care is useless.

[Jenksismyhero]

Wait just a second...how many lives do you think would be lost per year if we reduced healthcare spending to zero?

 

I can see arguing that we spend too much on health care, I've done that myself (see other thread) but you seem to be arguing that the full couple trillion we spend every year on health care is useless.

 

If we're devaluing the human life and putting a cost on it, then yes, I think if you'd cut the trillions spent on healthcare you'd only lose a small percentage of the population, which would decrease over time. The old and poor would slowly die, and you'd be left with people that already pay for their own healthcare. I have no idea what number to put on it, but if you take away those people that are dying anyway, I dunno, 50k? 100k? a year. It's not like every old and poor person would instantly die simply because the gov't stopped paying. Some would die more quickly, but others might find a way to pay for it.

 

My bigger point was that if you start putting costs on protecting human lives then at some point nearly everything the gov't spends money on is a waste. Has there been waste on security and anti-terrorism? Sure. But what's really the cost? Savings another 3k lives? What if 9/11 had destroyed our economy? Is the billions/trillions really a waste then?

[BigSqwert]

What if 9/11 had destroyed our economy?

It kind of did back then unless my memories are incorrect. Airlines and travel related industries being the hardest hit.

[Balta1701]

Spencer Ackerman discusses to what level this should be considered a failure of the intelligence system.

As investigation into the case continues, there’s some new information that complicates that picture. First, the CIA, after hearing his father’s concern, compiled a profile of Abdulmutallab consisting of non-specific information, but apparently declined to share it with the National Counterterrorism Center. And the National Security Agency picked up communications from al-Qaeda’s Yemeni affiliate indicating that the group was looking to use a “Nigerian” in an unspecified terrorist attack, according to The New York Times. That also didn’t go to the NCTC.

 

New information may surface. But based on this, is it really fair to point the finger at the intelligence community here? Abdulmutallab’s father told embassy officials in Abuja that he didn’t know where his son was, but might be in Yemen. The CIA had that information. NSA has information that a Nigerian might be used for an attack sponsored by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. If all of this had gone into the NCTC, would someone have put two and two together — setting off the process for pulling Abdulmutallab’s visa or putting him on the no-fly? Maybe. And the rationale for the all-source, multi-agency NCTC is all about intelligence sharing. But remember: the inputs are that the guy’s dad says he’s dangerous; he’s Nigerian; he might be in Yemen; and al-Qaeda in Yemen may be looking to use a Nigerian in a forthcoming attack. Is that really enough?

 

The answer to that question most certainly requires a policy decision, not an intelligence decision. The intelligence community is drinking from a fire hose of data, a lot of it much more specific than what was acquired on Abdulmutallab. If policymakers decide that these thin reeds will be the standard for stopping someone from entering the United States, then they need to change the process to enshrine that in the no-fly system. But it will make it much harder for people who aren’t threatening to enter, a move that will ripple out to effect diplomacy, security relationships (good luck entering the U.S. for a military-to-military contact program if, say, you’re a member of the Sunni Awakening in Iraq, since you had contacts with known extremists), international business and trade, and so on. Are we prepared for that?

 

Similarly, there’s a reasonable issue to investigate about intelligence-sharing processes even in the pre-specific-threat level. But remember: that just increases the firehose of data NCTC must process. Information is supposed to filter up to NCTC in strength and specificity from the component intelligence agencies so that NCTC isn’t overwhelmed. If we want to say that there should be a lower standard for sharing with NCTC, fine. But then either NCTC needs to be given more resources, or we risk missing the next Abdulmutallab because NCTC’s analysts will be drowning in nonspecific data and trying to rope it to flotillas of additional information. It’s reasonable to ask, however, what the CIA did post-Nov. 19 to investigate Abdulmutallab specifically. But it’s also important to remember that barely a month passed between his father’s warning and Flight 253.

[southsider2k5]

Ditto universal healthcare, welfare, war on drugs, war on poverty, guns, etc.

 

Airline security? Forget it, how many people died in crashes last year? US defense? Why bother, when was the last time we were attacked? Measels? Mumps? Chicken Pox? No one dies from that, quit paying for the vaccines. How many people died because of a bank? Don't need them either, close it down.

[southsider2k5]

Spencer Ackerman discusses to what level this should be considered a failure of the intelligence system.

 

That sounds incredibly familiar. That is almost exactly the scenario of the before and after of 9/11. We had some vague information regarding some ideas, and possibilities, but nothing concrete.

[Balta1701]

That sounds incredibly familiar. That is almost exactly the scenario of the before and after of 9/11. We had some vague information regarding some ideas, and possibilities, but nothing concrete.

I sure got the impression from the 9/11 commission report that you're really underestimating how much info they had before 9/11 there.

[Balta1701]

That sounds incredibly familiar. That is almost exactly the scenario of the before and after of 9/11. We had some vague information regarding some ideas, and possibilities, but nothing concrete.

And one other point...a large plot involving months of training within the U.S., millions of dollars, overseas communications, getting 20 people into the country with Visas, years of overseas planning, etc., compared with a guy smuggling a small, 100 gram package onto a plane in his underwear...the difference in complexity between these 2 should have produced a huge difference in the amount and quality of intel available.

 

I think the argument there is...it might be that there is a clear failure of intelligence to do something it was supposed to do. But short of closing the borders and closing every airport everywhere, it might be that there just isn't enough available to do anything about a plot of this scale. Its possible everything could have worked exactly the way it should have (yes, you should still conduct an investigation) and the guy still could have gotten the charge onto the plane.

[southsider2k5]

And one other point...a large plot involving months of training within the U.S., millions of dollars, overseas communications, getting 20 people into the country with Visas, years of overseas planning, etc., compared with a guy smuggling a small, 100 gram package onto a plane in his underwear...the difference in complexity between these 2 should have produced a huge difference in the amount and quality of intel available.

 

I think the argument there is...it might be that there is a clear failure of intelligence to do something it was supposed to do. But short of closing the borders and closing every airport everywhere, it might be that there just isn't enough available to do anything about a plot of this scale. Its possible everything could have worked exactly the way it should have (yes, you should still conduct an investigation) and the guy still could have gotten the charge onto the plane.

 

And of course all of that was in hindsight. What did the intelligence community know ahead of time? They had a general plot of something that could be done. No specifics. No names. No dates. Just like this one.

[Balta1701]

And of course all of that was in hindsight. What did the intelligence community know ahead of time? They had a general plot of something that could be done. No specifics. No names. No dates. Just like this one.

They had one of them in custody didn't they? They had reports of guys in pilot schools, they had things that just weren't decoded in time, IIRC there were quite a few other things that they could have reacted to.

 

Anyway, the question is, how do you react to this level of intel? If we get 1000 reports of the level that we received about this guy per day, and one of them turns into a legit plot, how do you react to that?

[southsider2k5]

They had one of them in custody didn't they? They had reports of guys in pilot schools, they had things that just weren't decoded in time, IIRC there were quite a few other things that they could have reacted to.

 

Anyway, the question is, how do you react to this level of intel? If we get 1000 reports of the level that we received about this guy per day, and one of them turns into a legit plot, how do you react to that?

 

Just like 9-11.

[Balta1701]

[/b]

 

Just like 9-11.

As I said, I've certainly gotten the impression that there was a unique period of threats before 9/11. The "Summer of threat" in the words of the CIA director. With his "Hair on Fire". That doesn't sound like this at all.

[southsider2k5]

As I said, I've certainly gotten the impression that there was a unique period of threats before 9/11. The "Summer of threat" in the words of the CIA director. With his "Hair on Fire". That doesn't sound like this at all.

 

so there was a bunch of threats, and we were supposed pick out exactly when, where, and how... Got it.

[Balta1701]

so there was a bunch of threats, and we were supposed pick out exactly when, where, and how... Got it.

Your opinion here strikes me as remarkable, that there's n o difference here, based on just the press reports so far. That's all I'll say.

[southsider2k5]

Your opinion here strikes me as remarkable, that there's n o difference here, based on just the press reports so far. That's all I'll say.

 

As opposed to not being surprised at all by yours...

[kapkomet]

Defend Obama, Bush sucks. That's all we need to know here.

 

[BigSqwert]

Defend Obama, Bush sucks. That's all we need to know here.

LOL You're seriously becoming the right wing magic 8 ball with your handful of canned responses. Happy New Year brother.

[kapkomet]

LOL You're seriously becoming the right wing magic 8 ball with your handful of canned responses. Happy New Year brother.

 

 

All Kaperbole ™ aside, you too. I hope you have a great year.

[Cknolls]

Your opinion here strikes me as remarkable, that there's n o difference here, based on just the press reports so far. That's all I'll say.

 

 

I'm waiting for SY HERSH to do his in depth investigative journalism myself.

[mreye]

so there was a bunch of threats, and we were supposed pick out exactly when, where, and how... Got it.

 

Yes, because that was a Republican Administration.

[Balta1701]

Yes, because that was a Republican Administration.

No, because the plot was just a wee bit more detailed. Just a little.

[Balta1701]

Defend Obama, Bush sucks. That's all we need to know here.

Interestingly, I wasn't even thinking this when I posted that article...I was genuinely expressing doubt that it would be possible to stop this type of attack at all while still maintaining any semblance of an open society. The 9/11 attack was hugely detailed, involved years of planning, gave tons of hints to law enforcement and intelligence agencies over the course of years, involved millions of dollars, etc. This case involved a very low level warning of the type that they've probably received about you a couple times, security screening not done by the U.S., only a couple thousand dollars, no training, and less than a month between the first hints of a warning and the actual attempt.

 

I've long thought that if AQ ever got their act together, they could do the most damage by pulling off a series of the latter type of attacks, because they aren't the type on which you can gather intelligence effectively; you just give a guy a bomb or send him to a gun show & voila, 20 dead Americans a couple days later. You could shut down malls by hitting a couple of them, shut down commerce by hitting a couple banks, whatever. The 9/11 scale of attack ought to be preventable because it was so big. This is the level of attack I wonder if you can prevent if you let people out of their doors. Post investigation, it might turn out that there was some easily overlooked thing, but I doubt it.

 

Of course, that's immediately viewed as defending Obama for some reason. I'm sure it's naturally me who's doing that somehow subconsciously, and not you guys trying to take every discussion out there and immediately use it as a way to say "See, Obama's as bad as Bush!"

[BigSqwert]

Stop making so much sense Balta.