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2010 Cubs Thread


knightni

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 8, 2010 -> 03:13 PM)
On average, it was a full run, or close to 0.9 runs, something like that.

 

After searching a bit more, it seems like it depends a lot on who does the analysis. Here's the NYT quoting 0.9 runs, , here's hardballtimes quoting 0.41 runs.

 

I would agree with HBT more...they're more sabermetrically oriented.

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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Jun 8, 2010 -> 03:31 PM)
It looks like the former one took only the 57 starters that had at least 20 starts (ie the relatively competent) while the latter used everyone (414 for his purposes). I would imagine that if you truly and completely suck, the difference in leagues doesn't affect your results a whole lot (just a theory though). The latter also used multi-year statistics, which probably eliminates some of the variation.

 

A 57 person sample size is a bit small.

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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Jun 8, 2010 -> 03:31 PM)
It looks like the former one took only the 57 starters that had at least 20 starts (ie the relatively competent) while the latter used everyone (414 for his purposes). I would imagine that if you truly and completely suck, the difference in leagues doesn't affect your results a whole lot (just a theory though). The latter also used multi-year statistics, which probably eliminates some of the variation.

Silva disagrees with this theory.

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I think it is tough to truly rate Silva. He has had success in the AL before, and he got paid, then got fat and happy. He absolutely sucked in a Mariners uniform, but the guy was in a revolving buffet line the entire time he was there. He looks like he took the offseason seriously this year and showed up to Cubs camp in shape, and he looks like a totally different pitcher now.

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jun 9, 2010 -> 11:44 AM)
I think it is tough to truly rate Silva. He has had success in the AL before, and he got paid, then got fat and happy. He absolutely sucked in a Mariners uniform, but the guy was in a revolving buffet line the entire time he was there. He looks like he took the offseason seriously this year and showed up to Cubs camp in shape, and he looks like a totally different pitcher now.

 

In his 4 seasons in Minnesota, he had one awful year, but his other 3 seasons had ERAs of 4.21, 3.44, & 4.19. That averages to just under 4, subtract one run due to the league switch and it puts him where he is now. I don't see him finishing under 3, but I think the combo of the switch to the NL along with him actually giving a f*** again, makes his comeback somewhat real.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 9, 2010 -> 11:59 PM)
Cards can't seem to beat any of the good teams in the NL. Swept by the Dodgers. They desperately need another starting pitcher and might need another 2B.

Buehrle and Lillibridge.

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