2010 Cubs Thread

[Melissa1334]

So, we're a week into March, and the Cubs already have Lilly, Nady and Guzman injured? Its a very Cubbie Spring Training!

nady isnt 100% healthy and he wasnt when they got him. why did they get him?

[Jordan4life_2007]

They're going to be really bad this year and probably for many years to come.

 

You know, forgetting the fact that I hate all things Cubs, they really, really look like a horses*** team on paper. There's not one aspect of their team that looks good to me. Even with us, you know the SP will be pretty damn good. Their only saving grace is they're in the central. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if a team like the Reds finished with a better record.

[Rowand44]

You know, forgetting the fact that I hate all things Cubs, they really, really look like a horses*** team on paper. There's not one aspect of their team that looks good to me. Even with us, you know the SP will be pretty damn good. Their only saving grace is they're in the central. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if a team like the Reds finished with a better record.

Ya, I'm about as indifferent on the Cubs as anyone on this site, so I try to call it like I see it with them. To me, they just look like complete garbage, with no young core whatsoever at this point(not counting the Castros and Vitters of the world as they haven't proven s*** yet) to build around and some terrible contracts on the books for some years. They're in trouble.

[Harry Chappas]

The thing that makes the cubs look bad is the ages of the players. Should they continue to age which by nature they have to and begin to regress, it is not goign to be pretty.

 

It is a fact that is spoken of here daily that Konerko, AJ, Linebrink and Buerhle are going to regress due to age yet Dempster, Lilly, Lee, and the likes on the north side are impervious to this.

[sircaffey]

I don't think the Cubs are that bad. Nothing to get too excited about, but I wouldn't say they suck. Their rotation and offense are above average. Ramirez/Lee is the one of the better 3/4 in the NL. The pen sucks, but I'd peg them for 82-83 wins granted Lilly can make 27-28 starts.

 

Their future is just as mediocre. Though I think Cashner and Jay Jackson get overlooked. A lot of people think Jay Jackson is one of the more underrated SP prospects in the game. So much hype for Castro and Vitters, I'd say Cashner and Jackson make more of an impact, perhaps as early as this year.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I don't think the Cubs are that bad. Nothing to get too excited about, but I wouldn't say they suck. Their rotation and offense are above average. Ramirez/Lee is the one of the better 3/4 in the NL. The pen sucks, but I'd peg them for 82-83 wins granted Lilly can make 27-28 starts.

 

Their offense was below average last year. Among NL teams, they ranked 12th in BA, 10th in Runs, 10th in OBP, 10th in OPS. They were 5th in HR's. But it's never good when you're in the top 5 in HR's and only 10th in runs scored overall. And that was with Derek Lee having by far his best season since 2005. History says he won't have another season like last year. Just look at the rest of their projected lineup. You got guys either rapidly declining (Soriano), or making A LOT more money than what they actually produce (Fukodome), and just a bunch of average to below average guys filling out their lineup. I will concede that a healthy Aramis Ramirez will help.

 

Their SP isn't all that impressive. I know their overall SP ERA was good (more indicative of how lame the NL is than anything). But what are the chances Randy Wells repeats his '09? Rich Harden, as injury prone as he was, was their filthiest starter when he did take the mound. Now they're going with Carlos Silva? lol. Lilly is hurt. Dempster is OK, I guess. Zambrano is more name than game. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see their rotation take a big step back this year. I won't even get into their bullpen.

 

Their future is just as mediocre. Though I think Cashner and Jay Jackson get overlooked. A lot of people think Jay Jackson is one of the more underrated SP prospects in the game. So much hype for Castro and Vitters, I'd say Cashner and Jackson make more of an impact, perhaps as early as this year.

 

Their system appears to be in better shape than it has been the last 5 years or so (sounds familiar). But they don't have anybody that's capable of helping them this year or maybe even next year.

[whitesoxfan101]

You know, forgetting the fact that I hate all things Cubs, they really, really look like a horses*** team on paper. There's not one aspect of their team that looks good to me. Even with us, you know the SP will be pretty damn good. Their only saving grace is they're in the central. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if a team like the Reds finished with a better record.

 

One day they'll realize they have talent. If they get can Volquez healthy and Chapman up to the majors later this season (I think I read somewhere there is something in his contract which means you probably won't see him until Mid May at the earliest), they'll have a shot at making a 2nd half run IMO. The Cardinals still have to be a very strong favorite though obviously.

Edited March 10, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[Jordan4life_2007]

One day they'll realize they have talent. If they get can Volquez healthy and Chapman up to the majors later this season (I think I read somewhere there is something in his contract which means you probably won't see him until Mid May at the earliest), they'll have a shot at making a 2nd half run IMO. The Cardinals still have to be a very strong favorite though obviously.

 

The Reds were my sleeper pick last year. They obviously flopped. But that team has some SERIOUS young talent. If they can put it together, an '08 Rays type year isn't outta the question, IMO.

Edited March 10, 2010 by Jordan4life

[justBLAZE]

I don't know how to post a video here but if you go to espn.com/chicago there is some more Milton Bradley drama video right on the first site.

[sircaffey]

Their offense was below average last year. Among NL teams, they ranked 12th in BA, 10th in Runs, 10th in OBP, 10th in OPS. They were 5th in HR's. But it's never good when you're in the top 5 in HR's and only 10th in runs scored overall. And that was with Derek Lee having by far his best season since 2005. History says he won't have another season like last year. Just look at the rest of their projected lineup. You got guys either rapidly declining (Soriano), or making A LOT more money than what they actually produce (Fukodome), and just a bunch of average to below average guys filling out their lineup. I will concede that a healthy Aramis Ramirez will help.

 

Their SP isn't all that impressive. I know their overall SP ERA was good (more indicative of how lame the NL is than anything). But what are the chances Randy Wells repeats his '09? Rich Harden, as injury prone as he was, was their filthiest starter when he did take the mound. Now they're going with Carlos Silva? lol. Lilly is hurt. Dempster is OK, I guess. Zambrano is more name than game. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see their rotation take a big step back this year. I won't even get into their bullpen.

 

 

 

Their system appears to be in better shape than it has been the last 5 years or so (sounds familiar). But they don't have anybody that's capable of helping them this year or maybe even next year.

 

Of course they were below average last year. They got absolutely nothing out of LF, 2B, and C (one being the leadoff hitter which explains why they were 5th in HR and 10th in R). Not to mention they missed 80 games from Ramirez and 20 games from Lee. A lot of things went wrong last year offensively. I see a lineup full of respectable hitters, minus Fontenot. It's ok to say Dempster, Zambrano, and Lilly are good SP too. I know that it goes against your stance that the Cubs suck, buts it's ok to at least acknowledge certain things. No one's saying they are going light the world on fire, but they have a strong middle of the order and a strong top of the rotation. They are not a "horses***" team. The Royals and Pirates are horses*** teams. If Soto and Soriano can get back to close to what they were the year before, I think they could contend for the Wild Card.

 

But I guess you have taken the approach that what went wrong will likely continue to go wrong, and what went right likely won't continue to go right.

Edited March 10, 2010 by sircaffey

[Jordan4life_2007]

Of course they were below average last year. They got absolutely nothing out of LF, 2B, and C (one being the leadoff hitter which explains why they were 5th in HR and 10th in R). Not to mention they missed 80 games of their best hitter. A lot of things went wrong last year offensively. I see a lineup full of respectable hitters, minus Fontenot. It's ok to say Dempster, Zambrano, and Lilly are good SP too. I know that it goes against your stance that the Cubs suck, buts it's ok to at least acknowledge certain things. No one's saying they are going light the world on fire, but they have a strong middle of the order and a strong top of the rotation. They are not a "horses***" team. The Royals and Pirates are horses*** teams. If Soto and Soriano can get back to close to what they were the year before, I think they could contend for the Wild Card.

 

But I guess you have taken the approach that what went wrong will likely continue to go wrong, and what went right likely won't continue to go right.

 

The Pirates and Royals don't have payrolls at almost 140 million. The Cubs look ridiculously average (IMO, below average) on paper. Could they surprise? Perhaps. I doubt it.

[chw42]

Of course they were below average last year. They got absolutely nothing out of LF, 2B, and C (one being the leadoff hitter which explains why they were 5th in HR and 10th in R). Not to mention they missed 80 games from Ramirez and 20 games from Lee. A lot of things went wrong last year offensively. I see a lineup full of respectable hitters, minus Fontenot. It's ok to say Dempster, Zambrano, and Lilly are good SP too. I know that it goes against your stance that the Cubs suck, buts it's ok to at least acknowledge certain things. No one's saying they are going light the world on fire, but they have a strong middle of the order and a strong top of the rotation. They are not a "horses***" team. The Royals and Pirates are horses*** teams. If Soto and Soriano can get back to close to what they were the year before, I think they could contend for the Wild Card.

 

But I guess you have taken the approach that what went wrong will likely continue to go wrong, and what went right likely won't continue to go right.

 

I actually think that Jordan's analysis was pretty good.

 

The Cubs' offense will improve, but their rotation and bullpen will be their downfall.

[sircaffey]

I don't get why their rotation will be their downfall. They have 3 established above average SP, 1 breakout SP who will likely regress to an average #4, and an open #5 spot. In comparison to the rest of the league, that doesn't look bad at all.

[chw42]

I don't get why their rotation will be their downfall. They have 3 established above average SP, 1 breakout SP who will likely regress to an average #4, and an open #5 spot. In comparison to the rest of the league, that doesn't look bad at all.

 

You have a fake ace in Zambrano. The guy's peripherals have declined for the past 2-3 years with the exception of last season, which was a smaller sample size than usual. Before last year, his FIP was constantly in the 4s and you can expect more of that from him and health is another issue with him. He's starting to make only about 27-28 starts now annually and that's not going to go up any time soon.

 

Dempster's a pretty good pitcher. He took a 1.5 WAR dip last year in comparison to 2008 and that's where he'll probably stay for 2010, a 3.5 WAR pitcher. Good, but not great. He's probably the best pitcher on the staff.

 

Ted Lilly is hurt and he might not be ready for a month or two. Then you have a recovering period with him and he might not be the same guy he was until June or July.

Randy Wells overachieved considerably last year. His xFIP and FIP say he's a guy who will post a ERA around 4.2, not 3. He'd be your average middle of the rotation starter on most teams.

 

Tom Gorzelanny is nothing special and I doubt they get 2007 production from him, although that is still somewhat possible.

 

Carlos Silva is a mess and we all know that. He shouldn't even make the team. However, they'll need to find somebody to fill Lilly's role for a good month or two.

 

So I see one declining "ace", one good pitcher, one pitcher who is hurt that is decent, one overachieving rookie who will regress, one mediocre back end starter, and one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

 

If things don't go right with Lilly, this rotation will probably blow up. That is unless Wells does what he did last year, which I very much doubt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SoxAce]

One day they'll realize they have talent. If they get can Volquez healthy and Chapman up to the majors later this season (I think I read somewhere there is something in his contract which means you probably won't see him until Mid May at the earliest), they'll have a shot at making a 2nd half run IMO. The Cardinals still have to be a very strong favorite though obviously.

 

Agreed. Chapman is as good as advertised BTW. I thought he would be all arm (honestly thought his velocity wasn't as advertised either, then he's throwing 100+ mph bombs to hitters shutting me up), no control, but he's been the opposite. If Volquez returns to form, they got a nice nucleus of young pitching in the future (Volquez, Cueto, Chapman, Bailey, Leake etc..)

[Jordan4life_2007]

Agreed. Chapman is as good as advertised BTW. I thought he would be all arm (honestly thought his velocity wasn't as advertised either, then he's throwing 100+ mph bombs to hitters shutting me up), no control, but he's been the opposite. If Volquez returns to form, they got a nice nucleus of young pitching in the future (Volquez, Cueto, Chapman, Bailey, Leake etc..)

 

Don't forget their position players. Votto, Bruce (who I personally think will explode this year), Phillips and Drew Stubbs. Stubbs is gonna be NICE. I like the Cabrera addition as well. Always nice to have a vet or two in there with so many youngsters.

[whitesoxfan101]

I wouldn't outright say the Cubs suck and have no shot at the playoffs, but they need some things to go right. They need a lot of older players to performs at levels they put up in their younger days, and that will be difficult. Even their older players who still perform at a pretty high level are due to regress at their age. There just isn't enough young talent being infused into their major league club. Addtionally, Randy Wells is going to be in for a rude awakening this year IMO, which along with Harden being gone will damage their rotation even if all else goes well. I'd say the Cubs have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, but it's definitely a noteably underdog shot. I don't see the wild card coming out of the central, and that's probably their best shot since St. Louis seems to be noticably better than them.

Edited March 10, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[sircaffey]

You have a fake ace in Zambrano. The guy's peripherals have declined for the past 2-3 years with the exception of last season, which was a smaller sample size than usual. Before last year, his FIP was constantly in the 4s and you can expect more of that from him and health is another issue with him. He's starting to make only about 27-28 starts now annually and that's not going to go up any time soon.

 

Dempster's a pretty good pitcher. He took a 1.5 WAR dip last year in comparison to 2008 and that's where he'll probably stay for 2010, a 3.5 WAR pitcher. Good, but not great. He's probably the best pitcher on the staff.

 

Ted Lilly is hurt and he might not be ready for a month or two. Then you have a recovering period with him and he might not be the same guy he was until June or July.

Randy Wells overachieved considerably last year. His xFIP and FIP say he's a guy who will post a ERA around 4.2, not 3. He'd be your average middle of the rotation starter on most teams.

 

Huh? Zambrano's been in "decline" the last 2 years except for last year? And thus is declining? What kind of statement is that? His numbers went down after he was fantastic 3 years ago giving up 50 less hits than IP. And he's starting to make 27-28 starts annually? He's never made less than 28, once. One year constitutes annually? I'll have to remember that one. He's not an ace, but he is a solid SP.

 

You are exaggerating Lilly's injury.

 

That's exactly what I think of Wells. Regression is going to happen. Nothing wrong with middle of the rotation. Hell, I even said average #4.

 

Why even talk about Carlos Silva? Marshall and Gorzelanny are ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly, Wells, and Marshall isn't bad at all. It's going to keep the Cubs in a lot of games. The offense/pen are going to be the determining factors.

Edited March 10, 2010 by sircaffey

[sircaffey]

I wouldn't outright say the Cubs suck and have no shot at the playoffs, but they need some things to go right. They need a lot of older players to performs at levels they put up in their younger days, and that will be difficult. Even their older players who still perform at a pretty high level are due to regress at their age. There just isn't enough young talent being infused into their major league club. Addtionally, Randy Wells is going to be in for a rude awakening this year IMO, which along with Harden being gone will damage their rotation even if all else goes well. I'd say the Cubs have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, but it's definitely a noteably underdog shot. I don't see the wild card coming out of the central, and that's probably their best shot since St. Louis seems to be noticably better than them.

Agreed. 81-83 wins with a chance at 87-88. Health may be the biggest factor. Way too many injuries last year leading to inconsistent lineups/rotation. Ramirez, Soriano, Lee, Zambrano, Harden, and Lilly all missed good chunks of time. Especially the rotation. You can handle one injury, but when multiple SP start missing time you're F'd.

 

I think the loss of Harden is overrated. Not only was he in and out of the rotation, but he rarely lasted deep into games taxing the bullpen. Sure, he was electric, but he often did more harm than good.

[chw42]

Huh? Zambrano's been in "decline" the last 2 years except for last year? And thus is declining? What kind of statement is that? His numbers went down after he was fantastic 3 years ago giving up 50 less hits than IP. And he's starting to make 27-28 starts annually? He's never made less than 28, once. One year constitutes annually? I'll have to remember that one. He's not an ace, but he is a solid SP.

 

You are exaggerating Lilly's injury.

 

That's exactly what I think of Wells. Regression is going to happen. Nothing wrong with middle of the rotation. Hell, I even said average #4.

 

Why even talk about Carlos Silva? Marshall and Gorzelanny are ahead of him on the depth chart.

 

Dempster, Zambrano, Lilly, Wells, and Marshall isn't bad at all. It's going to keep the Cubs in a lot of games. The offense/pen are going to be the determining factors.

 

You don't decline for two, have one slightly better year, and then go back to being better. He pitched fewer innings last year and his lower FIP could be due to a lack of sample size. The truth is, even though Zambrano is a decent K pitcher, he relies heavily on contact outs, which is why his FIP is usually in the 4s. His FIP has been in the 4s since 2006 with the exception of last season.

 

Zambrano's health issues in the past few seasons also tell me that he will start making less and less starts, he's starting to reach his 30s and with his stature, he looks to be a guy who is going to regress very early. It has already started to show up.

 

And I am definitely not exaggerating Lilly's injury. He has both a shoulder and a knee problem. He's coming off surgery on the shoulder and now his knee is banged up. Try pitching with those two body parts hurting. It's going to affect him for at least two months this year.

 

I have a feeling that Cubs management will have to put Silva somewhere in order to save face. He will get a couple of starts and Marshall, as a left hander, is very big for that bullpen since it's extremely right handed outside of Grabow.

 

Once Lilly gets back, it's a formidable bunch, but until then, it could go real bad.

Edited March 10, 2010 by chw42

[NorthSideSox72]

STL

CIN

CHC

MIL

PIT

HOU

 

[sircaffey]

You don't decline for two, have one slightly better year, and then go back to being better. He pitched fewer innings last year and his lower FIP could be due to a lack of sample size. The truth is, even though Zambrano is a decent K pitcher, he relies heavily on contact outs, which is why his FIP is usually in the 4s. His FIP has been in the 4s since 2006 with the exception of last season.

 

Zambrano's health issues in the past few seasons also tell me that he will start making less and less starts, he's starting to reach his 30s and with his stature, he looks to be a guy who is going to regress very early. It has already started to show up.

 

And I am definitely not exaggerating Lilly's injury. He has both a shoulder and a knee problem. He's coming off surgery on the shoulder and now his knee is banged up. Try pitching with those two body parts hurting. It's going to affect him for at least two months this year.

 

I have a feeling that Cubs management will have to put Silva somewhere in order to save face. He will get a couple of starts and Marshall, as a left hander, is very big for that bullpen since it's extremely right handed outside of Grabow.

 

Once Lilly gets back, it's a formidable bunch, but until then, it could go real bad.

Just because Zambrano isn't what he was 4 years ago, doesn't mean he's in steady decline. I never said he was going to improve, but I don't see reason to believe he is going to get worse.

 

I guess you have read different reports on Lilly than I. I haven't seen anything that even hints at him not being 100% 4-5 weeks into the season. He says he'll be ready to pitch in ST later this month.

 

The loser of Marshall/Gorzelanny will go to the pen. My money is on Marshall winning. Or they'll go with John Gaub, one of their better prospects.

[chw42]

Just because Zambrano isn't what he was 4 years ago, doesn't mean he's in steady decline. I never said he was going to improve, but I don't see reason to believe he is going to get worse.

 

I guess you have read different reports on Lilly than I. I haven't seen anything that even hints at him not being 100% 4-5 weeks into the season. He says he'll be ready to pitch in ST later this month.

 

The loser of Marshall/Gorzelanny will go to the pen. My money is on Marshall winning. Or they'll go with John Gaub, one of their better prospects.

 

ERA/FIP since 2006

2006: 3.41/4.14 (214 innings)

2007: 3.95/4.58 (216 innings)

2008: 3.91/4.23 (188 innings)

2009: 3.77/3.61 (169 innings)

 

A decline in innings for the past three.

 

Avg Fastball velocity since 2006

2006: 92.2

2007: 91.6

2008: 91.3

2009: 91.2

 

I'd call that a steady decline.

 

CHONE and MARCEL have him for 181 innings and 164 innings pitched respectively. CHONE projects a 4.2 ERA, MARCEL is projecting a 3.84.

 

He's not going to get any better.

 

 

[sircaffey]

ERA/FIP since 2006

2006: 3.41/4.14 (214 innings)

2007: 3.95/4.58 (216 innings)

2008: 3.91/4.23 (188 innings)

2009: 3.77/3.61 (169 innings)

 

A decline in innings for the past three.

 

Avg Fastball velocity since 2006

2006: 92.2

2007: 91.6

2008: 91.3

2009: 91.2

 

I'd call that a steady decline.

 

CHONE and MARCEL have him for 181 innings and 164 innings pitched respectively. CHONE projects a 4.2 ERA, MARCEL is projecting a 3.84.

 

He's not going to get any better.

 

According to FIP though, he's improved his effectiveness?

 

Using your same sound logic, Jake Peavy is "declining."

 

Peavy (28 years old, 1 day younger than Zambrano):

 

ERA/FIP since 2007

2007: 2.54/2.84 (223.1 innings)

2008: 2.85/3.60 (173.1 innings)

2009: 3.45/2.99 (101.2 innings)

 

Avg FB velocity:

2007: 92.5

2008: 92.1

2009: 91.8

 

I don't think many here would label Peavy as "declining," but I guess you would.

 

Just a note, but I don't really buy into FB velocity as a sign of decline. I mean, Lincecum's avg FB velocity has dropped each of his 3 seasons.

Edited March 11, 2010 by sircaffey

[chw42]

According to FIP though, he's improved his effectiveness?

 

Using your same sound logic, Jake Peavy is "declining."

 

Peavy (28 years old, 1 day younger than Zambrano):

 

ERA/FIP since 2007

2007: 2.54/2.84 (223.1 innings)

2008: 2.85/3.60 (173.1 innings)

2009: 3.45/2.99 (101.2 innings)

 

Avg FB velocity:

2007: 92.5

2008: 92.1

2009: 91.8

 

I don't think many here would label Peavy as "declining," but I guess you would.

 

Just a note, but I don't really buy into FB velocity as a sign of decline. I mean, Lincecum's avg FB velocity has dropped each of his 3 seasons.

 

Peavy is declining. He's not the 6 WAR pitcher he was in 2007.

 

Zambrano's decline is going to be uglier than Peavy's though, provided that Peavy is healthy.

 

His stats aren't going to look any better by moving to the AL and to the Cell.