The Jim Thome Saga Ends

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Just league wide, midseason trades do not work out that well. There was a huge report on this at the deadline last year showing how little impact midseason trades have had in the postseason. Beltran is one of the only ones to really make a difference.

I agree with you. I could envision a scenario where the Sox lose more than their share of close games early in the season due to a lack of production by their DH. Then, at the deadline KW pulls off another one of his good trades bringing a big bat to add to the lineup. However, the new player struggles and the Sox fall a little short. The next spring we hear "We're expecting (Acquired Player) to rebound and match his career numbers this year. The problem was that he felt that he had to carry the team when he came here last season and put too much pressure on himself."

[Ranger]

You said it well yesterday....no one is really going to choose the White Sox over the Yankees if the money is even close.

 

Probably true. There are a number of reasons starting with, well, they're the Yankees. And I would think most players would feel honored to play for them at some point. Then of course, there's the obvious...

[scenario]

There really is no use repeating myself, because I thought it was pretty clear. If the lineup as a whole does its job, it is irrelevant if the Sox' DH is weaker than everyone else's.

 

Let me make this even clearer for those that may think I wouldn't like a better hitter there: I would. For the sake of piece-of-mind alone, I would find it more comforting if they had a better option right now. However, I just don't believe that one spot will end up making the difference. It will probably be inconsequential in comparison to the trio I mentioned in my previous post.

 

Chris, you're right. You are being clear.

 

I simply don't agree with you.

 

Planning around a hole in the lineup, especially at a premier offensive position, simply doesn't make sense IMO, regardless of whether other players 'do their job'.

 

Edited January 25, 2010 by scenario

[Ranger]

Yes... but...

 

The statistical correlation between runs scored and wins is very very clear. And the correlation between OPS and runs scored is very clear.

 

And in the AL, DH is a premier offensive position. So, why should we handicap ourselves by choice?

 

I can buy the argument that we might not have many other choices...

 

But I simply can't buy the idea that intentionally rotating sub-standard offensive players through the DH position is an acceptable idea for a team that wants to compete.

 

I'd be happier if they scrapped the idea and just said "Tyler Flowers will be our DH unless he struggles to hit at the major league level"... and then let the current 'plan' be the backup plan.

 

You will get no argument from me that it is not ideal. I agree with that. I'm simply saying that the fate of this lineup does not necessarily hinge on the DH, especially if the big boys do their job. The Rays scored the 5th most runs in the league last year (7th overall) and Pat Burrell had an OPS of around .680 as their full-time DH. It's not ideal, but it doesn't mean it won't be good enough...especially in the Central.

Edited January 25, 2010 by Ranger

[knightni]

You will get no argument from me that it is not ideal. I agree with that. I'm simply saying that the fate of this lineup does not necessarily hinge on the DH, especially if the big boys do their job. The Rays scored the 5th most runs in the league last year (7th overall) and Pat Burrell had an OPS of around .680 as their full-time DH. It's not ideal, but it doesn't mean it won't be good enough...especially in the Central.

Yes, but Longoria, Pena, Upton and Crawford are better than nearly anything that the Sox are throwing out there this season.

[fathom]

Yes, but Longoria, Pena, Upton and Crawford are better than nearly anything that the Sox are throwing out there this season.

 

Don't forget what Zobrist did in the first half last year.

[Texsox]

As recent history has shown, the difference between making the playoffs and starting that golf vacation can be very slim. Will the DH make a difference, probably not. But damn, with the rest of this lineup, it's like having Aerosmith play your party but limit them to Sgt Pepper Soundtrack stuff.

[fathom]

Having a better DH also slightly decreases the damage done if someone like Quentin, Rios, or Beckham struggles this season.

[Dick Allen]

You will get no argument from me that it is not ideal. I agree with that. I'm simply saying that the fate of this lineup does not necessarily hinge on the DH, especially if the big boys do their job. The Rays scored the 5th most runs in the league last year (7th overall) and Pat Burrell had an OPS of around .680 as their full-time DH. It's not ideal, but it doesn't mean it won't be good enough...especially in the Central.

It wasn't good enough for the Rays and they were looking and are looking for a replacement. That's the argument. Why wait for the inevitable? We all know this DH experiment as currently constructed is going to fail. There really is no good argument as to why it would not. You yourself have said on your show you expect the White Sox to get another bat. It doesn't have to be Thome, although the price seems hard to beat. I just hope they come to their senses before the games start to count. Every game you win in April and May is one less you have to win in August and September.

Edited January 25, 2010 by Dick Allen

[scenario]

You will get no argument from me that it is not ideal. I agree with that. I'm simply saying that the fate of this lineup does not necessarily hinge on the DH, especially if the big boys do their job. The Rays scored the 5th most runs in the league last year (7th overall) and Pat Burrell had an OPS of around .680 as their full-time DH. It's not ideal, but it doesn't mean it won't be good enough...especially in the Central.

 

It's much easier to overcome a hole like Burrell created when you have 4 guys in the lineup with an OPS over .875 like the Rays.

 

Just for comparison purposes...

Only one player on the Sox had an OPS over .850 in 2009... Thome.

Three players did in 2008... Quentin, Dye, and Thome.

Only one player did in 2007... Thome.

Three players did it in 2006... Konerko, Dye, and Thome.

 

(BTW - Alex Rios has done it twice in his 6 year career... the last time was 3 years ago.)

 

So... take Thome and Dye out of the equation... replace Thome with sub-standard DH production... and if other guys do their jobs we should be OK?

 

I'm just struggling to see how we'll score enough runs to be competitive.... which would be a damn shame given the pitching staff we have.

Edited January 25, 2010 by scenario

[Dick Allen]

It's much easier to overcome a hole like Burrell created when you have 4 guys in the lineup with an OPS over .875 like the Rays did.

 

Just for comparison purposes...

Only one player on the Sox had an OPS over .850 in 2009... Thome.

Three players did in 2008... Quentin, Dye, and Thome.

Only one player did in 2007... Thome.

Three players did it in 2006... Konerko, Dye, and Thome.

 

(BTW - Alex Rios has done it twice in his 6 year career... the last time was 3 years ago.)

 

So... take Thome and Dye out of the equation... replace Thome with sub-standard DH production... and if other guys do their jobs we should be OK?

 

I'm just struggling to see how we'll score enough runs to be competitive.

 

This is a Thome thread but I agree people are underestimating the loss of Dye offensively. We did see the loss the second half and it wasn't too pretty. Maybe that's why some are OK with Kotsay and Jones. The first half, JD was a great hitter.

[YonderLaroche]

This is a Thome thread but I agree people are underestimating the loss of Dye offensively. We did see the loss the second half and it wasn't too pretty. Maybe that's why some are OK with Kotsay and Jones. The first half, JD was a great hitter.

 

JD's first half was great and helped the team win a ton of games in 09... 2008 he was the only one besides Quentin to not get in a bad slump, and helped the team win many games. 2005-2007 speak for themselves when it comes to JD.

 

The real problem with the lineup was the hitters last year. Thome was the most consistent and on base the most, despite having a lot of strikeouts. If Konerko pulls the same crap again, Quentin don't hit like 08, Beckham slumps, Rios don't figure it out, AJ's offense declines, Pierre don't get on base, Teahen is "average".... Adrian Gonzalez couldn't save the offense.

 

Thome would be nice, but PK has probably been the most inconsistent and frustrating the past few years, and he will still be hitting 3rd. Don't forget the hate these guys will get if they fail in 2010: Rios, Teahen, Pierre, Jones, Quentin.

[iamshack]

There really is no use repeating myself, because I thought it was pretty clear. If the lineup as a whole does its job, it is irrelevant if the Sox' DH is weaker than everyone else's.

 

Let me make this even clearer for those that may think I wouldn't like a better hitter there: I would. For the sake of piece-of-mind alone, I would find it more comforting if they had a better option right now. However, I just don't believe that one spot will end up making the difference. It will probably be inconsequential in comparison to the trio I mentioned in my previous post.

Don't you agree though that by signing as many productive bats as possible, you solidify the offense?

 

We very well may not see the difference between a playoff birth, or an ALCS, or even a World Series birth come down to whether or not we acquire a productive DH bat. I'll concede that.

 

However, how many times do you view a baseball team one way going into the season, only to have that team establish an entirely different identity as the season progresses and ultimately comes to a conclusion? If you go back and look at expert predictions prior to each season, I think for the vast majority of seasons, you'd laugh at the level of accuracy involved.

 

With that in mind, solidifying the offense as much as possible, so that there are as many productive bats available when unexpected events occur, is probably the best possible course of action to take, especially when you're talking about the small financial commitment involved in this case. There is absolutely no way to accurately predict what will happen with the MANY variables this team currently is committed to, including Mark Teahan, Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Juan Pierre, etc. The number of possible outcomes is beyond any reasonable number of contingencies one can plan for. Therefore, in my mind, the goal has to be to assemble an offense with the highest number of productive pieces, so that you can mix and match them into a productive unit based on any number of contingencies.

 

What good does it do to assume, prior to the season beginning, whether or not success will boil down to one acquisition? When we can scarcely predict the success of the team as a whole, how can we possibly predict that such success will be caused by certain parts of that whole? In reality, it truly is anyone's guess, is it not?

[Tannerfan]

It's much easier to overcome a hole like Burrell created when you have 4 guys in the lineup with an OPS over .875 like the Rays.

 

Just for comparison purposes...

Only one player on the Sox had an OPS over .850 in 2009... Thome.

Three players did in 2008... Quentin, Dye, and Thome.

Only one player did in 2007... Thome.

Three players did it in 2006... Konerko, Dye, and Thome.

 

(BTW - Alex Rios has done it twice in his 6 year career... the last time was 3 years ago.)

 

So... take Thome and Dye out of the equation... replace Thome with sub-standard DH production... and if other guys do their jobs we should be OK?

 

I'm just struggling to see how we'll score enough runs to be competitive.... which would be a damn shame given the pitching staff we have.

 

I would be curious to know the OPS of Everette and Frank in '05 along with Konerko and Dye.

Not to mention Crede vs Tehan and Iguchi vs Beckham.

[Balta1701]

I would be curious to know the OPS of Everette and Frank in '05 along with Konerko and Dye.

Not to mention Crede vs Tehan and Iguchi vs Beckham.

In 2005, the White Sox DH's put up an OPS of .769, 8th in the AL.

 

In 2005, Crede put up a .756 OPS. Iguchi put up a .780. Dye, .846, Konerko .909.

 

Last year, Becksy put up .808, Teahen put up .734. Konerko .842, Dye .793.

[quickman]

I think that is reading too much into it. It's never been an issue of not trusting Ozzie's vision for an ideal team as much as it has been that it's just difficult to build a team exactly the way you want it to be built within a couple of years when you consider pre-existing multi-year contracts, alternatives (or lack of alternatives), and financial constraints. Now that the team is built the way Ozzie likes it, it would be easier to keep it in tact (if it works) than it would be to re-vamp the whole thing again.

 

I don't think that this suddenly means Ozzie will be on Jerry's hotseat because he still has plenty of equity built up with the owner. Ozzie will be more heavily scrutinized by the fans and media for sure, but I doubt he will be in any greater danger of losing his job if things go poorly this year.

 

 

Chris I completely agree. Ozzie is safe for along time, and so is KW. JR is extremely loyal to his people. These guys work as a team, not in silo's. Ozzie at this point in time has expressed his passion to change the look of the team and he is getting what he wants. Now that being stated, in the eyes of many he is playing with a light deck, and I would hate to waste a winnable year and money on a path that has so much skeptism. For the sox it is about the hot start to the season and a thrilling hard playing team that helps put people in the seats.

[Eminor3rd]

You will get no argument from me that it is not ideal. I agree with that. I'm simply saying that the fate of this lineup does not necessarily hinge on the DH, especially if the big boys do their job. The Rays scored the 5th most runs in the league last year (7th overall) and Pat Burrell had an OPS of around .680 as their full-time DH. It's not ideal, but it doesn't mean it won't be good enough...especially in the Central.

 

I think the bottom line is this:

 

Instead of signing a starter, we're going to use bench players to DH. Doing so means we're intentionally crippling ourselves. The Rays didn't use Burrell as a DH because they thought he sucked but they'd be "good enough" anyway.

[Dick Allen]

The White Sox were 11th in the AL in slugging pct. last year. Only Oakland, Seattle and KC were worse. I don't see where rotating mediocre at best hitters as the DH is going to help.

[Princess Dye]

The White Sox were 11th in the AL in slugging pct. last year. Only Oakland, Seattle and KC were worse. I don't see where rotating mediocre at best hitters as the DH is going to help.

 

 

I suppose the argument would be that those stats fail to include a bunch of playing time for guys who were not there on Opening Day. And then you have Teahan to factor in as well.

[witesoxfan]

JD's first half was great and helped the team win a ton of games in 09... 2008 he was the only one besides Quentin to not get in a bad slump, and helped the team win many games. 2005-2007 speak for themselves when it comes to JD.

 

The real problem with the lineup was the hitters last year. Thome was the most consistent and on base the most, despite having a lot of strikeouts. If Konerko pulls the same crap again, Quentin don't hit like 08, Beckham slumps, Rios don't figure it out, AJ's offense declines, Pierre don't get on base, Teahen is "average".... Adrian Gonzalez couldn't save the offense.

 

Thome would be nice, but PK has probably been the most inconsistent and frustrating the past few years, and he will still be hitting 3rd. Don't forget the hate these guys will get if they fail in 2010: Rios, Teahen, Pierre, Jones, Quentin.

 

Jermaine Dye was not a good hitter in 2007 for most of the year. He saved his numbers that year with a great August and September.

 

Paul Konerko was not a good hitter for most of 2008, but he was productive in 2009. As has been pointed out ad nauseum on here, it wasn't good production out of the 1B spot, but it was production none the less. I would be fine with an .840 OPS out of Konerko.

 

You also threw out a lot of "what ifs" in that part of it anyways. I also strongly doubt Konerko hits 3rd but more likely 5th or 6th without Thome right now.

 

With the hypothetical Thome signing (with others filling in that role quite a bit..)

 

Pierre - LF

Ramirez - SS

Beckham - 2B

Quentin - RF

Thome - DH

Konerko - 1B

Pierzynski - C

Rios - CF

Teahen - 3B

 

still a pretty sad lineup. I don't know that Ramirez is going to hit 2nd, and he is probably better suited for 7th or 8th, but it's hypothetical and a rough draft, and it's still not very pretty. Putting Kotsay/Jones as the DH makes it look even worse.

 

[Dick Allen]

I suppose the argument would be that those stats fail to include a bunch of playing time for guys who were not there on Opening Day. And then you have Teahan to factor in as well.

Teahan hasn't equaled what Pods put up for a slugging pct. last season since 2006.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Kalapse]

I suppose the argument would be that those stats fail to include a bunch of playing time for guys who were not there on Opening Day. And then you have Teahan to factor in as well.

The Sox put up an even .400 SLG in the second half of 2009, good for worst in the AL.

[Dick Allen]

Thome has supposedly been told the White Sox will pass. Hopefully they have something else up their sleeves or they will be in the market for hitting during the season.

[Kalapse]

Thome has supposedly been told the White Sox will pass. Hopefully they have something else up their sleeves or they will be in the market for hitting during the season.

And supposedly the Tigers may have interest in the big man, good stuff.

[daa84]

And supposedly the Tigers may have interest in the big man, good stuff.

getting thome on his own team should help verlanders ERA significantly