The Jim Thome Saga Ends

[ThunderBolt]

I think this is going to be an abject disater. This team will suffer for Ozzie's experiment.

[fathom]

Can we say the Twins will hit a lot of homers for sure without seeing how their park plays yet? And I don't have a problem with the Sox playing small ball. I do have a problem with them telling a guy who OPS'd .850 against right handed pitching last year that they can't get him enough at bats because they have to rotate 3 guys who can't hit (except Kotsay against righties, and his numbers in that category were not as good as Thome's last year) in the DH spot though.

 

I don't have a problem with small ball either, as long as we don't overuse the bunt. It's why Nick Johnson and his great OBP would have been a great addition as a DH, but it seems like he wanted to go to the Yankees.

[justBLAZE]

http://blogs.suntimes.com/whitesox/2010/01...ck_for_now.html

 

"It's weird because since I've been the manager we've always had the big boys in the middle,'' Guillen said. "We have a little different philosophy. I'm very, very optimistic. I don't want to say I've put my job on the line, but I've been telling Kenny for three weeks that I like what I have.''

 

 

 

 

[iamshack]

I don't doubt that Ozzie has forgotten more about baseball than I have ever learned.

 

That being said, I really think he is going to realize that all this running and bunting and hitting and running doesn't work when guys don't get on base in the first place.

 

If we had a bunch of high OBP guys, I could at least buy into a slight bit. But we don't!

[Princess Dye]

http://blogs.suntimes.com/whitesox/2010/01...ck_for_now.html

 

 

This is kind of like when girls tell a guy he's hot. They dont really do that if they actually dig him.

 

Conversely, you dont say as a manager "man my job's lacking security now!!"

 

 

In short, Ozzie has this job as long as he wants it. All this jabber makes it all the more clear. The idea of 'job security' is pretty much being parodied by employee and employer.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Princess Dye

[ThunderBolt]

Q sure as hell better be the opening day DH, and Jones better have his ass in right or center field. I'm incredibly frustrated at how thick-headed this team is acting.

[fathom]

Q sure as hell better be the opening day DH, and Jones better have his ass in right or center field. I'm incredibly frustrated at how thick-headed this team is acting.

 

Q will be in RF, and rightfully so.

[ThunderBolt]

Last year jones had an OBP of 367 and more walks than K's against LHP and Kotsay had an OBP of 347 and 15/17 ratio of bb/k. They aren't going to hit for power like Thome but if Ozzie goes with a strict platoon, these two should get on base at a good clip.

 

This should be an interesting situation and make this even more fun towatch during the season.

The projections I’ve seen for this tandem are mind blowingly bad. We're talking a statistical improbability of anything more then around 15 homeruns in a strict platoon between these guys. I never thought I’d see a situation shape up where Jayson Nix looks to be getting the last roster spot over Jim Thome.

[ThunderBolt]

Q will be in RF, and rightfully so.

In the perfect world, he should be, but not if Jones is a starter on this team. Common sense means putting the best fielder out there, which is Jones, which of course Ozzie won't do.

[Eminor3rd]

Edited January 26, 2010 by Eminor3rd

[Soxbadger]

The projections I’ve seen for this tandem are mind blowingly bad. We're talking a statistical improbability of anything more then around 15 homeruns in a strict platoon between these guys. I never thought I’d see a situation shape up where Jayson Nix looks to be getting the last roster spot over Jim Thome.

 

You cant be seriously saying that Andruw Jones and Kotsay hitting over 15 hrs together is a statistical improbability?

 

Jones hit 17 last year in 82 games.

 

Kotsay had 4 hrs.

 

Seems like hyperbole to suggest that together they wont hit 15.

 

I have to assume you meant they both wont hit 15, meaning its improbable (not sure why you need to throw "statistical" in there) that the tandem hits 30 hr. But then again Id say its improbable that Thome after hitting 24 hrs last year, hits 30 this year.

 

Ill go on record as saying im fine with this decision, but if it completely backfires Ozzie has to take the heat.

 

Hes got a hunch and hes betting big.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Soxbadger

[scenario]

Let's just hope Tyler Flowers knocks the cover off the ball in spring training and leaves Ozzie no choice except to insert him at DH.

Edited January 26, 2010 by scenario

[SoxAce]

Ugh... I thought when we all heard about this months ago that it was more or less a bluff by KW. (and A.J. I was hoping you wouldn't have posted Jim's crap on here, but hey, I don't mind alittle fuel to the fire)

 

A few guys in our lineup better have very good to career years. If Ozzie sticks to a STRICT platoon of Kotsay and Jones with LH/RH pitchers and if alot of guys hit well, it won't be THAT bad of an offense. Probably not top 10 in the league, but average to serviceable. With our pitching staff, that is good enough.

[The Beast]

Not sure what your argument is with me on this. Is it that I don't want thome back? or that KW put himself in this situation?

TQ -

 

Who do you think should DH, Kotsay, Vizquel or Jones? Do you think the platoon is going to be effective or is something up KW's sleeve here? Just curious now that Thome is out of consideration. (I hope he joins the Twins and rapes our pitching staff.)

[whitesoxfan101]

You cant be seriously saying that Andruw Jones and Kotsay hitting over 15 hrstogether is a statistical improbability?

 

Jones hit 17 last year in 82 games.

 

Kotsay had 4 hrs.

 

Seems like hyperbole to suggest that together they wont hit 15.

 

I have to assume you meant they both wont hit 15, meaning its improbable (not sure why you need to throw "statistical" in there) that the tandem hits 30 hr. But then again Id say its improbable that Thome after hitting 24 hrs last year, hits 30 this year.

 

Ill go on record as saying im fine with this decision, but if it completely backfires Ozzie has to take the heat.

 

Hes got a hunch and hes betting big.

 

I don't mind going with a hunch in a specific situtation in a game. But relying on one for a VERY important position over an entire season? That's just crazy.

[iamshack]

Ugh... I thought when we all heard about this months ago that it was more or less a bluff by KW. (and A.J. I was hoping you wouldn't have posted Jim's crap on here, but hey, I don't mind alittle fuel to the fire)

 

A few guys in our lineup better have very good to career years. If Ozzie sticks to a STRICT platoon of Kotsay and Jones with LH/RH pitchers and if alot of guys hit well, it won't be THAT bad of an offense. Probably not top 10 in the league, but average to serviceable. With our pitching staff, that is good enough.

Look, I really like Jones. I think he will flourish here.

 

But come on now. This offense is nowhere near talented enough to preclude the addition of Jim Thome at $2M.

[Soxbadger]

Its the DH spot. Given the injuries to White Sox players over the last few years, im not exactly sweating the idea of giving guys like Beckham, CQ, etc a day as DH and not take so much punishment.

 

I more meant that Ozzie is betting big on not taking Thome just because it would cost the Sox so little to do it, and seemingly every one would be fine with it.

 

He must really not want to have the pressure of playing Thome.

[SoxAce]

Look, I really like Jones. I think he will flourish here.

 

But come on now. This offense is nowhere near talented enough to preclude the addition of Jim Thome at $2M.

 

I'm going by what Dr. ptatc () said which I never really looked into. It was just one year, but both have had better history versus a pitcher with whatever hand they pitch with. I was in the Thome/N. Johnson/etc.. camp for quite sometime. But I'm trying to be optimistic here as it's already hard enough to have to watch Juan Pierre's .330 OBP (prior to 2008) hit leadoff for us everyday.

 

Last year jones had an OBP of 367 and more walks than K's against LHP and Kotsay had an OBP of 347 and 15/17 ratio of bb/k. They aren't going to hit for power like Thome but if Ozzie goes with a strict platoon, these two should get on base at a good clip.

 

This should be an interesting situation and make this even more fun towatch during the season.

 

[fathom]

Its the DH spot. Given the injuries to White Sox players over the last few years, im not exactly sweating the idea of giving guys like Beckham, CQ, etc a day as DH and not take so much punishment.

 

I more meant that Ozzie is betting big on not taking Thome just because it would cost the Sox so little to do it, and seemingly every one would be fine with it.

 

He must really not want to have the pressure of playing Thome.

 

As Steve Stone said, the Sox don't think Thome has the type of swing/approach that would flourish playing only twice a week. After seeing some of his PH ABs with the Sox and Dodgers, I don't blame them.

[iamshack]

As Steve Stone said, the Sox don't think Thome has the type of swing/approach that would flourish playing only twice a week. After seeing some of his PH ABs with the Sox and Dodgers, I don't blame them.

I can't disagree with that at all.

 

The problem in that scenario is that they think there is only an opportunity for Jim Thome to fit into this lineup 1 day a week.

[whitesoxfan101]

As Steve Stone said, the Sox don't think Thome has the type of swing/approach that would flourish playing only twice a week. After seeing some of his PH ABs with the Sox and Dodgers, I don't blame them.

 

I don't blame them either. I don't think people are as mad about Thome not coming back as they are with this move being the realization that the Sox are actually going to go through with this clown college of coaches deal at DH though.

Edited January 26, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[Soxbadger]

I dont either.

 

I just think from an eye test Kostay looked like he had more left last year. Maybe the numbers dont say it, but I felt more confident that hed do something productive at the pate.

 

Could be dead wrong, but thats what I saw.

[ThunderBolt]

You cant be seriously saying that Andruw Jones and Kotsay hitting over 15 hrs together is a statistical improbability?

Sorry, i had some dodgy wording on that last post. I suspect that stems from the frustartion i'm feeling at the moment. Here's some of the projections i've been working with. You can find all of these on each players Fangraphs.com page.

Andruw Jones

Season Team G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP SB CS AVG

 

2010 Bill James

77 203 230 47 26 10 0 11 30 34 27 53 2 1 .232

2010 CHONE

113 394 450 86 47 18 1 20 58 65 51 102 5 3 2 .218

2010 Marcel

338 389 72 40 17 1 14 46 45 44 2 90 3 4 0 9 4 2 .213

 

Mark Kotsay

Season Team G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP SB CS AVG

 

2010 Bill James

78 209 226 56 40 12 1 3 23 23 17 24 2 2 .268

2010 CHONE

102 366 394 93 66 20 1 6 37 42 27 45 1 3 2 .254

2010 Marcel

316 347 82 56 18 2 6 34 37 27 3 43 1 2 1 9 3 3 .259

 

Averaging all three projection systems is usually a useful tool, in doing so, you find that statically this tandem (in strict platoon)projects to hit around 20 homeruns, 79 RBI's, an average around .240, and an OPB around .320. Adjusting for futher playing time, and discounting the Visquel factor, does little to spin this in a positive direction. Awesome. I'm not indoctrinated to these, but I find them to be fair assessments I'm also not saying that my math is perfect, I just think this is further evidence of the error of Ozzie's ways.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Thunderbolt

[iamshack]

I'm going by what Dr. ptatc () said which I never really looked into. It was just one year, but both have had better history versus a pitcher with whatever hand they pitch with. I was in the Thome/N. Johnson/etc.. camp for quite sometime. But I'm trying to be optimistic here as it's already hard enough to have to watch Juan Pierre's .330 OBP (prior to 2008) hit leadoff for us everyday.

I know Jones had some solid numbers against RH last year, but his career numbers show that he favors hitting against LHP (.859) rather than RHP (.815).

 

Kotsay has historically hit RHP (.758) better than LHP (.726).

 

Kotsay should only play when he relieves Konerko.

 

Jim Thome, on the other hand, has a career 1.043 OPS against RHP.

 

Seems like Jones/Thome would have been a better platoon to me...

 

 

[SoxAce]

I know Jones had some solid numbers against RH last year, but his career numbers show that he favors hitting against LHP (.859) rather than RHP (.815).

 

Kotsay has historically hit RHP (.758) better than LHP (.726).

 

Kotsay should only play when he relieves Konerko.

 

Obviously your pretty much reiterated what I (and ptatc) just said.

 

Jim Thome, on the other hand, has a career 1.043 OPS against RHP.

 

Seems like Jones/Thome would have been a better platoon to me...

 

And obviously I agree with you being a Thome backer. Not sure where you are going with this, or if this is just another "make a point cause I want to" moment.