The Jim Thome Saga Ends

[Soxbadger]

White Sox 2010 is based on pitching.

 

Kotsay gives Ozzie far more flexibility than Thome, considering Thome cant even play 1b.

 

I know that a lot of you guys like him, but there is a reason why no one else is calling either.

[iamshack]

Obviously your pretty much reiterated what I (and ptatc) just said.

 

 

 

And obviously I agree with you being a Thome backer. Not sure where you are going with this, or if this is just another "make a point cause I want to" moment.

I thought you were arguing that Jones/Kotsay could be a good platoon because last year Jones hit RH better than LH and Kotsay hit LH better than RH.

 

I was pointing out that last year's numbers go against the career numbers for both of them.

[iamshack]

White Sox 2010 is based on pitching.

 

Kotsay gives Ozzie far more flexibility than Thome, considering Thome cant even play 1b.

 

I know that a lot of you guys like him, but there is a reason why no one else is calling either.

No one was advocating cutting Kotsay for Thome.

[Ranger]

I don't think you were explicit at all. I think you basically said they are not X-Factors because you simply did not believe them to be X-Factors, which, sorry, is just not an acceptable answer.

 

Q and Rios are certainly X-Factors. Beckham is a second year player entering his first full season. I think he has all the talent in the world, but he certainly does not have a long enough resume to be able to say with any certainty what kind of numbers he will produce. Teahan, I think is fair to argue will improve over some of his previous seasons' in KC, but again, there just is not enough consistency to expect anything other than .780 - .800 OPS at best. Pierre, I can agree with you that he will probably post something in the .730-760 OPS range?

 

I mean all of these players have big question marks! That is the reason many are here, with the exception of Beckham, who is entering his first full season! These guys are the definition of X-Factor!

 

You can twist any player to be an X-factor. You could also say almost all of the Twins rotation is an X-factor. So are Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span and JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris. If you consider the Twins to be the team to be worried about this year, then they have their own potential issues as well.

 

Nothing I said is the equivalent to "just because". I told you exactly why I think Teahen will do what he'll do, I think it's self-explanatory why I think Beckham will perform close to what he did last year (because he's certainly good enough to do it and nothing about him indicates "fluke"), or maybe even a little better, and I think it's perfectly clear what to expect from Pierre (he is what he is). There are no surprises there. Regarding your original "X-factor" comment, Quentin and Rios to me are the only ones I'm worried about because they're the ones I've always expected to be the keys to this offensive season.

 

 

In the perfect world, he should be, but not if Jones is a starter on this team. Common sense means putting the best fielder out there, which is Jones, which of course Ozzie won't do.

 

 

But Jones isn't gonna start everyday.

[SoxAce]

I thought you were arguing that Jones/Kotsay could be a good platoon because last year Jones hit RH better than LH and Kotsay hit LH better than RH.

 

I was pointing out that last year's numbers go against the career numbers for both of them.

 

Not arguing at all. This is more or less me trying to be optimistic about this whole thing. (like I said earlier, even with .330 OBP prior to 2008, Pierre hitting leadoff just to take a jab ) Ozzie wanted this lineup, we'll see if it works. A strict platoon could be right if Ozzie does it.. right. It'll be nice what badge said to give a few guys a day(s) off from playing the field.

Edited January 26, 2010 by SoxAce

[whitesoxfan101]

White Sox 2010 is based on pitching.

 

Kotsay gives Ozzie far more flexibility than Thome, considering Thome cant even play 1b.

 

I know that a lot of you guys like him, but there is a reason why no one else is calling either.

 

I don't mind not having Thome. My question is why didn't the Sox acquire a real DH at some point this offseason? I know this team is based on pitching, but that is not an excuse to basically give away the fact that your DH spot will be bottom 3 in the league in production.

[Ranger]

I know Jones had some solid numbers against RH last year, but his career numbers show that he favors hitting against LHP (.859) rather than RHP (.815).

 

Kotsay has historically hit RHP (.758) better than LHP (.726).

 

Kotsay should only play when he relieves Konerko.

 

I think it would be acceptable for him to start more than 20 games a year. This, assuming PK plays at least 140.

[Soxbadger]

Over spent last season, have to get creative this season. Not to mention if a potential player became available during the season, Sox have shown the ability to get a deal done.

 

Its just the nature of being aggressive, they spent a lot of cash for very little this year. Almost every business is going to take a more conservative approach after that happens.

 

Id love it if they can print money, but I never expected the Sox to be a top 10 payroll team, so even when they are close I cant really get that upset.

[iamshack]

You can twist any player to be an X-factor. You could also say almost all of the Twins rotation is an X-factor. So are Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span and JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris. If you consider the Twins to be the team to be worried about this year, then they have their own potential issues as well.

 

Nothing I said is the equivalent to "just because". I told you exactly why I think Teahen will do what he'll do, I think it's self-explanatory why I think Beckham will perform close to what he did last year (because he's certainly good enough to do it and nothing about him indicates "fluke"), or maybe even a little better, and I think it's perfectly clear what to expect from Pierre (he is what he is). There are no surprises there. Regarding your original "X-factor" comment, Quentin and Rios to me are the only ones I'm worried about because they're the ones I've always expected to be the keys to this offensive season.

 

I'm not arguing about the Twins here.

 

I think you can argue just about anything, Mr. Rongey, but that doesn't make it so.

 

I think the fact that we acquired Quentin, Rios, Teahan and Pierre for Chris Carter, Chris Getz, Josh Fields, John Ely and Jon Link pretty much illustrates exactly what they are...

[Ranger]

I'm not arguing about the Twins here.

 

I think you can argue just about anything, Mr. Rongey, but that doesn't make it so.

 

I think the fact that we acquired Quentin, Rios, Teahan and Pierre for Chris Carter, Chris Getz, Josh Fields, John Ely and Jon Link pretty much illustrates exactly what they are...

 

 

That really doesn't illustrate or prove anything about the players the Sox have in exchange. Nor does it prove that they will not be productive.

 

The Twins matter in this because it proves the point that you can make any player into an "X-factor" and because it shows that the Sox are not operating in a vacuum. Their success also depends on their competition.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Ranger

[whitesoxfan101]

Over spent last season, have to get creative this season. Not to mention if a potential player became available during the season, Sox have shown the ability to get a deal done.

 

Its just the nature of being aggressive, they spent a lot of cash for very little this year. Almost every business is going to take a more conservative approach after that happens.

 

Id love it if they can print money, but I never expected the Sox to be a top 10 payroll team, so even when they are close I cant really get that upset.

 

Then that's fine, go the inexpensive route and bring back Thome, who is flawed, but cheap and still gives a significant boost to the DH situation. There is really no point of view that excuses the current DH situation.

[Soxbadger]

They view everyone on the team as superior options to Thome, why would you just burn money?

 

As I said before, what my eyes told me last year was that Kotsay was the more dangerous hitter.

 

You have to trust yourself.

 

My guess is that Ozzie saw something similar.

[iamshack]

That really doesn't illustrate or prove anything about the players the Sox have in exchange. Nor does it prove that they will not be productive.

 

The Twins matter in this because it proves the point that you can make any player into an "X-factor" and because it shows that the Sox are not operating in a vacuum. Their success also depends on their competition.

We do not share the financial constraints the Twins do. That is a tremendous part of why they operate the way they do.

 

As for my point, it illustrates the fact that these players were, for the most part, relatively undesirable to their former teams, allowing them to be acquired fairly cheaply. Why were they in this position previously? Because they all have faults. Inconsistency. Attitude. Injury. They are X Factors.

[ThunderBolt]

They view everyone on the team as superior options to Thome, why would you just burn money?

 

As I said before, what my eyes told me last year was that Kotsay was the more dangerous hitter..

And yet the stats for both players careers show that this conclusion has no merit whatsoever. I saw a couple of Yuniesky Betancourt AB's where he smoked solid singles into center and managed to field a ground ball, coupled with that i saw Alexei Ramirez strike out a bunch and make an error once or twice. Who's the better player? Alexei, of course. The stats bear that out. The "eye test" is not the end-all-be-all of baseball analysis. It is subject to both error and bias, and there is little quantifiable about it.

[Soxbadger]

Your right, why would I ever think how they played last year was more important than how they played in their career?

 

Given that gem, why dont the Sox sign Frank Thomas because his career statistically was better than both and his my favorite player so how could you go wrong there?

 

I think there is a slight difference between you watching a couple of Yunkiesky Betancourt ab's and Ozzie watching Kotsay and Thome every at bat last season.

 

Maybe Im wrong, but I wouldnt bet your reputation on it.

 

Btw, the stats do bear mentioning:

 

Kostay on the Sox: .292 .349 .434 .783

 

Thome on the Sox:249 .372 .493 .864

 

Thome August: 238 .298 .500 .798

 

Kotsay August: 333 .389 .467 .856

 

Kotsay September: .324 .385 .493 .878

 

Guess my eye saw something in the last 2 months.

 

Thome had lost something and Kotsay clearly had picked it up.

 

(The post went to early for some reason sorry)

Edited January 26, 2010 by Soxbadger

[macsandz]

Look, I really like Jones. I think he will flourish here.

 

But come on now. This offense is nowhere near talented enough to preclude the addition of Jim Thome at $2M.

 

Offense extends beyond the plate out onto the basepaths where Thome is among the biggest wastes-of-space on the planet. He single-handedly would cost the Sox

runs time and again by dragging ass around the diamond and not allowing this team's good speed to play ANY kind of factor.

 

Sorry. We've seen enough station-to-station to last a lifetime.

[iamshack]

Offense extends beyond the plate out onto the basepaths where Thome is among the biggest wastes-of-space on the planet. He single-handedly would cost the Sox

runs time and again by dragging ass around the diamond and not allowing this team's good speed to play ANY kind of factor.

 

Sorry. We've seen enough station-to-station to last a lifetime.

Seriously? Do you realize the irony of arguing about skills on the basepaths for players whose talent for reaching base is questionable?

[Ranger]

We do not share the financial constraints the Twins do. That is a tremendous part of why they operate the way they do.

 

As for my point, it illustrates the fact that these players were, for the most part, relatively undesirable to their former teams, allowing them to be acquired fairly cheaply. Why were they in this position previously? Because they all have faults. Inconsistency. Attitude. Injury. They are X Factors.

 

 

What does Twins payroll have to do with this?

 

And, no, some of those trades are also made because of needs. AZ had an abundance of outfielders and didn't need Quentin, The Royals didn't need another 3B/RF any longer. You're making it sound as if trades never happen in which one team gets the better end. I suppose Matt Thornton is only as valuable as Joe Borchard. Or John Danks is worth as much as Brandon McCarthy. Or Jose Contreras was only worth as much as Esteban Loaiza.

 

It may be true that GMs typically try to make deals work out evenly for both teams, but it doesn't always work out that way.

[iamshack]

What does Twins payroll have to do with this?

 

And, no, some of those trades are also made because of needs. AZ had an abundance of outfielders and didn't need Quentin, The Royals didn't need another 3B/RF any longer. You're making it sound as if trades never happen in which one team gets the better end. I suppose Matt Thornton is only as valuable as Joe Borchard. Or John Danks is worth as much as Brandon McCarthy. Or Jose Contreras was only worth as much as Esteban Loaiza.

 

It may be true that GMs typically try to make deals work out evenly for both teams, but it doesn't always work out that way.

The Twins usually have X Factors because they can't afford more consistency. This occurs because of their payroll constraints.

 

As for the trades, you're missing the point. I am not stating that these players cannot be successful. Merely that they are relative unknowns, which caused them to become available in the first place.

 

To use your examples, Thornton, Loaiza, and Contreras ALL had flaws. Certainly they experienced success here, but could you really count on them having the success they had? Probably not. They were X Factors that panned out.

 

Do not confuse my argument to claim that these players will not succeed. I am only arguing that you can not predict with any certainty that they will. Which is why acquiring a player with Thome's body of work would only serve as insurance should we not get what we are hoping for from players like Rios, Quentin, Teahan and Pierre.

[caulfield12]

That really doesn't illustrate or prove anything about the players the Sox have in exchange. Nor does it prove that they will not be productive.

 

The Twins matter in this because it proves the point that you can make any player into an "X-factor" and because it shows that the Sox are not operating in a vacuum. Their success also depends on their competition.

 

We've got too many issues, starting with a corner infielder in Teahen that if ALL the stars are aligned can give you a 775-825 OPS, but he can also give you 675-725. Let's be charitable and say Brendan Harris is equal to Mark.

 

Ramirez and Hardy are pretty even, all things considered. Huge advantage to Beckham, our one clear positional advantage (barring a sophomore slump) over the Twins' line-up.

 

Then you have Morneau huge over Konerko, Mauer huge over AJ, Young with a slight advantage over Pierre, Span a clear advantage over Rios of 08-09 and Cuddyer being pretty even with Quentin (yes, the upside of CQ is AL MVP, and coming off the 08 season this wouldn't be a toss-up). Huge advantage to Kubel over Jones/Kotsay.

 

In other words, if Pierre/Teahen/Quentin/Rios/Jones/Kotsay perform at +25 to +50 over career norm stat levels, we'll trail the Twins by about 50-100 runs scored. That's assuming we can count on Becks, Ramirez, AJ and Konerko to do what we expect.

 

I would say a full 5/9ths of our everyday line-up is questionable, whereas the Twins have holes only at 2B and 3B.

 

The White Sox have the advantage in starting pitching, but the Twins have a lot more depth. Essentially, we have one replacement for Garcia (or anyone else going down) in Hudson (some will count Torres and Hynick, good luck with those guys over 10-15 starts). The Twins have 3-4 of their "system" guys that always seem to throw strikes and get the job done somehow. And this is based on the assumption that Liriano and Neshek, perhaps their two most effective pitchers in recent years, DO NOTHING.

 

The Twins, overall, have a deeper bullpen and also a stronger closer, although Nathan has been shaky the last two years, it's not close to the level of concern surrounding Jenks. And reports are that Putz is still a big question mark.

 

The only advantage the White Sox currently hold head-to-head is their top four starters.

 

The Twins have better fundamentals, better overall team speed and they really cleaned up their defense last year. Now they sacrificed some of that D by giving up Gomez, but the White Sox were pretty atrocious in that area last year, and hoping for "mediocre" or league average is about the most we can get in terms of improvement because AJ, Teahen and Ramirez will have their issues and Beckham will be learning his 3rd infield position in a year.

 

 

[macsandz]

Seriously? Do you realize the irony of arguing about skills on the basepaths for players whose talent for reaching base is questionable?

 

Thome would have clogged the paths. Who is arguing about skills?

[iamshack]

Thome would have clogged the paths. Who is arguing about skills?

Something which may seem like a luxury in a few months with this current cast of characters...

[caulfield12]

What does Twins payroll have to do with this?

 

And, no, some of those trades are also made because of needs. AZ had an abundance of outfielders and didn't need Quentin, The Royals didn't need another 3B/RF any longer. You're making it sound as if trades never happen in which one team gets the better end. I suppose Matt Thornton is only as valuable as Joe Borchard. Or John Danks is worth as much as Brandon McCarthy. Or Jose Contreras was only worth as much as Esteban Loaiza.

 

It may be true that GMs typically try to make deals work out evenly for both teams, but it doesn't always work out that way.

 

 

Mark Teahen is a complementary, bench player on most playoff teams. Maybe he could start for the Twins, but there aren't many upper division teams that would be giving him the starting job without any competition in Spring Training.

 

Same thing with Juan Pierre, how many teams that are legit playoff contenders would go with him as their leadoff hitter? Even if he was playing for those teams, it would be as the 8th (NL) or 9th place hitter.

 

As mentioned before, Jones and Kotsay wouldn't be part of a DH platoon for all but the 3-5 worst teams in the majors either...not even taking into consideration our home ballpark. Yes, the Rangers have a launching pad, but they also (have) had a stronger overall offense and there wasn't as much pressure on Jones to perform as there will be in Chicago in April and May.

 

Then you have the Rios enigma...I'm really curious how many other GM's would have taken on that reclamation project at those numbers? Anyone besides KW?

 

We could have put Rick Ankiel out in CF for 1/5th of the cost on a one-year contract, signed Vladimir Guerrero/N. Johnson/Matsui/Damon as our DH and had money left over to solidify the bullpen in the form of someone comparable to Dotel but with more of a history than Pena.

 

Ankiel/Damon/Dotel (etc.) or Alex Rios???

 

That questionable decision is probably the biggest single factor preventing us from spending money right now on a legit DH. forcing us to do things on the cheap again (see Wise/Anderson/Owens 2009).

 

There's one other factor here, too. Mitchell and Jordan Danks BOTH profile as better CFers than corner outfielders, the presence of Alex Rios in CF theoretically blocks both of those guys.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

Thome would have clogged the paths. Who is arguing about skills?

 

 

If Rios, Teahen and Pierre don't get on base at above 330 clips, whatever skills they have in terms of pure speed or base-running IQ don't really amount to a hill of beans. You can put Alexei Ramirez in that group as well, although his walk totals improved to so-so from abysmal.

[greg775]

Caufield's post is kind of scary. If his point of view is correct, our team better throw a lot of shutouts or we could be in trouble.

He makes some good points, but it is the glass half empty take on the team.