The Jim Thome Saga Ends

[dmbjeff]

Mark kotsay is going to get 300 to 350 ab's as a platoon dh considering how many righties the team faces. That is simply irresponsible. The numbers he puts up is of a 4th outfielder at best. He has no right to be taking that many crucial at bats for any team, much less one with an amazing starting staff who has world series aspirations.

[jenksycat]

There's one other factor here, too. Mitchell and Jordan Danks BOTH profile as better CFers than corner outfielders, the presence of Alex Rios in CF theoretically blocks both of those guys.

 

Then you move Rios to RF where he will be just as good. By the time those 2 guys are ready, we could realistically have 2 spots open in the OF (Pierre gone, Q to DH). He isn't blocking anybody.

[caulfield12]

Caufield's post is kind of scary. If his point of view is correct, our team better throw a lot of shutouts or we could be in trouble.

He makes some good points, but it is the glass half empty take on the team.

 

David Haugh/Tribune calls out Ozzie on Thome "pass"

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...,2742944.column

 

 

Good.

 

If 2006 taught us anything, it's that even a "perfectly constructed" team going into the season will have its issues.

 

Going into 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, there were glaring holes in our major league roster.

 

Right now, our lack of concern about having a bottom quintile DH combination and putting our hopes on the shoulders of Teahen, Pierre, Quentin, Rios, Kotsay and Andruw Jones is based on:

 

1) The Twins playing in a new stadium, which will magically morph them into an average team that has forgotten how to run, play fundamentally sound baseball, defend well or pitch.

 

2) The Indians and Royals have seemingly regressed.

 

3) The Tigers are financially strapped and had to give up Granderson and Jackson, arguably 2 of their 5 best players...as well as not resigning Polanco, Lyon or Rodney.

 

4) We can magically fix the eminently forseeable DH/hitting problem with a mid-season trade or adjustment and reel in the Twins or Tigers.

 

 

The White Sox typically have been similar to Tiger Woods, "front-runners" who aren't as good at stalking or closing from behind. if you look at the 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2008 seasons, especially. We haven't shown the ability to come back in the 2nd half of the season in meaningful games since the Twins swept us at the Metrodome in 2003.

 

So why we'd want to handicap ourselves, put off the fanbase by not putting a team on the field capable of starting fast and not taking advantage of the DECIDED advantage the pitchers will have in the "cold months" of April and May to support those aforementioned starters with enough runs to scrape together a bunch of 1-2 run wins (see 2005, April/May) is beyond me.

 

I really think the organization just isn't quite as hungry since we won it all in 2005, and most of those players are gone except for Mark, AJ, Jenks and Paulie. It seems the whole attitude the last two or three years heading into Spring Training has been a bit complacent. Ozzie and KW always SAY the right things about bunting and fundamentals and versatility (whatever the buzz word of that offseason is), but then we lapse into bad habits and revert to the three run homer and a cloud of dust strategy. Is KW and Ozzie's strategy to NOT HAVE home run hitters, forcing all of the individual pieces of the line-up to function together more smoothly and create an attitude that only by sacrificing individual stats for each other can the team win? Small ball (Pods and Iguchi) has been debunked here quite frequently (we did have Konerko, Dye, Thomas, Everett, Rowand and Crede on that team, and even Iguchi, AJ and Uribe had some pop in their bats, too---and that was an average to below-average AL offense, yet light years ahead of 2010).

 

I feel pretty confident that adding a Guerrero or Damon to the mix would have been enough to get the "fence sitters" who are waiting to see how things shake out back into USCF as paying customers. Now it's kind of a "wait and see" attitude, the typical "prove to me you're a winner" viewpoint that White Sox fans (not counting the die-hards or season ticket holders) typically have about their teams.

Edited January 26, 2010 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Then you move Rios to RF where he will be just as good. By the time those 2 guys are ready, we could realistically have 2 spots open in the OF (Pierre gone, Q to DH). He isn't blocking anybody.

 

 

Alex Rios is a capable RFer, but the only place on the diamond that he profiles as an All-Star or merits his contract numbers is in CF.

 

Alex Rios putting up his 2008 and 2009 numbers at his salary and playing RF is very close to a nightmare for KW and JR.

 

If you have Danks/Mitchell playing one outfield spot and Rios hitting 15-18 homers at another, YOU BETTER get 70-90 homers from the 3rd outfielder and/or DH, because that's a seriously putrid outfield OPS (not too much different from 2009, actually).

 

The only other option is for Tyler Flowers to emerge as a 25-35 homer threat and realistically not hurt us anymore than AJ defensively...but knowing we're also losing AJ's moxie, gamesmanship, knowledge of our pitchers and opposing players, you just have to hope and pray Flowers and Viciedo are real offensive contributors at some point or we're back to 2007 all over again.

 

 

 

 

[MattZakrowski]

Your right, why would I ever think how they played last year was more important than how they played in their career?

 

Given that gem, why dont the Sox sign Frank Thomas because his career statistically was better than both and his my favorite player so how could you go wrong there?

 

I think there is a slight difference between you watching a couple of Yunkiesky Betancourt ab's and Ozzie watching Kotsay and Thome every at bat last season.

 

Maybe Im wrong, but I wouldnt bet your reputation on it.

 

Btw, the stats do bear mentioning:

 

Kostay on the Sox: .292 .349 .434 .783

 

Thome on the Sox:249 .372 .493 .864

 

Thome August: 238 .298 .500 .798

 

Kotsay August: 333 .389 .467 .856

 

Kotsay September: .324 .385 .493 .878

 

Guess my eye saw something in the last 2 months.

 

Thome had lost something and Kotsay clearly had picked it up.

 

(The post went to early for some reason sorry)

 

Do you really believe that Mark Kotsay has magically become the .878 OPS player that he was in September? There's no way that wasn't just a outlier/hot streak for Kotsay. He put up a ridiculous .345 BABIP in August, and a still unmaintainable .317 in Sept./Oct. His K-Rate with the Sox was 8%. There's no way he does that again. Over the course of a full season, Kotsay will almost certainly regress to his career norms, which are worse than even conservative projections for Thome.

[caulfield12]

But once every 15 times Thome went up to hit for the Sox last year, he homered. His average was .249 with 23 HRs and 74 RBIs in 345 at-bats before being traded to the Dodgers, where he languished as a pinch-hitter. Had he stayed in Chicago the final month, his numbers likely would have been better than the AL average for DHs — 26 HRs, 89 RBIs and .255 average. That's a 39-year-old, above-average designated hitter worth inviting back.

 

In a platoon role as DH against right-handers, the Sox could have expected more pop out of 300 at-bats from Thome than the other possibilities combined. And if the Sox want to think as big as their starting pitching rotation allows them to think, who do you want batting sixth in Game 1 of the AL playoffs next October: A guy approaching 600 career home runs or Mark Kotsay?

 

With a straight face at SoxFest, Guillen worried what bringing Thome back might mean to potential playing time for Kotsay, Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel. That's like worrying if you still will have room for the steak after the salad.

 

Reliable veterans Kotsay, Jones and Vizquel give Guillen the luxury of a deep, experienced bench every contender needs. But in 645 at-bats in 2009, they totaled 22 home runs and drove in 80 runs. That's not enough oomph for an American League team that plays in a ballpark requiring it.

 

David Haugh/Chicago Tribune

[ThunderBolt]

Thome would have clogged the paths. Who is arguing about skills?

What the hell does, "clogging the paths" even mean, Mr. Baker? It's a baseball players job to get on-base just like how it's the following batters job to drive said runner in. It shouldn't matter how fast the man in question is, that's why we have sitiuational hitting.

[knightni]

Win.

 

He is the best manager in winning games the Sox have had since Al Lopez. His winning percentage is within a few points of the great Tony LaRussa and higher than guys like Tommy Lasorda. Say what you want about Ozzie's crazyness, he does do alot of crazy things during the season and during the off-season but he wins more than anyone we've had in a long time. Unless you would rather go back to Terry Bevington, Jeff Torborg, Don Kessinger, Jim Fregosi Jerry Manuel or even tony LaRussa. I kow I'm missing afew but I'm too lazy to look them up for managers since the late 70's. Ozzie's teams have been to the playoffs more times than all of the others combined or at least close to it.

Gene Lamont had a better win percentage and Jerry Manuel's was identical.

[Lemon_44]

I didn't want Thome back. His bat speed clearly was on the way down last year and logic only says that it will be even slower this year. The Sox won't miss him. But, the problem is that Kotsay/Jones and others aren't the answer either. However, i don't think there's a problem with giving it a try. THe Sox know what they had in Thome.They want to try something different. KW is going to give it a shot and see if it works. I think it may work for a month, or two, but then these older guys will start to wear down. That's when KW will be able to make a move. With the Sox pitching they will be right in it in the early summer.Konerko will only have 1/2 years salary left so the Sox can obtain a player(Dunn, Gonzo,Fielder) and make a move to put them over the top. At least that's how i think things will work out. Having Thome,to me, would have minimal impact on this year's team. Plus, out of respect for Thome,if he struggled, the Sox wouldn't want to be put in the position of having to release him. I just think it's better overall to move on. Who knows a youngster may come out of the blue as well.It's not like that hasn't happened before either.

[southsider2k5]

Ugh. I really hope Ozzie and Kenny know what is going on here.

[ptatc]

But in what way is the White Sox winning due to Ozzie Guillen's managing? Being associated with winning doesn't make you the cause of it. Did Robert Horry carry Houston, LA, and San Antonio to titles?

 

If you don't give him credit to help with the winning don't discredit him for the losing. He was the manager who oversaw the winning. How else can you determine the ultimate value of a manager? In the end winning is the only thing that matters. It doesn't matter how you do it, as long as it is within the rules. Is Phil Jackson a poor basketball caoch because he only won with Jordan or Kobe?

 

Guillen has won while here and no matter how you care to look at it, he is the best manager we've had in a long time.

 

[Steve9347]

Big Jim, you will go into the Hall as an Indian, but you'll always be a White Sox in my book. I can promise we won't boo you when you return.

[Balta1701]

Big Jim, you will go into the Hall as an Indian, but you'll always be a White Sox in my book. I can promise we won't boo you when you return.

There may be boos though...but they'll be directed at management.

[Steve9347]

But in what way is the White Sox winning due to Ozzie Guillen's managing? Being associated with winning doesn't make you the cause of it. Did Robert Horry carry Houston, LA, and San Antonio to titles?

He didn't carry them, but he sure as s*** had a lot to do with those teams winning. He had icewater running through his game. Big Game Rob, baby!

[Steve9347]

There may be boos though...but they'll be directed at management.

Why? Why would you boo management. I want to see what Ozzie does knowing full well KW can bail him out. KW has big ideas for this season, and has assembled the best pitching staff, in my opinion, in baseball. The last time he did that we won the World Series.

 

I am not going to boo this management, because they consistently show me their interest in winning and making smart baseball decisions. All I have to do is look to the North Side to know how valuable that can be.

[Balta1701]

I am not going to boo this management, because they consistently show me their interest in winning and making smart baseball decisions. All I have to do is look to the North Side to know how valuable that can be.

The last time I saw a Chicago team make a decision that I felt was this obviously stupid was the decision by the Cubs to sign Bradley.

[Tuna]

The last time I saw a Chicago team make a decision that I felt was this obviously stupid was the decision by the Cubs to sign Bradley.

 

honestly, at the time, how did you feel about the Carlos Lee trade?

 

[Balta1701]

honestly, at the time, how did you feel about the Carlos Lee trade?

Thought it was a gamble, but an interesting one, and it depended on which version of Podsednik we were going to get. Was more worried about JD replacing Magglio than I was about the Podsednik/Lee trade; we got 2 big things out of it, salary flexibility and a guy who was under our control for a lot longer, but JD had been injured and bad for a couple years, and after April/May that looked like a horrible move.

[Steve9347]

I loved the Lee trade at the time, and still love it for obvious reasons. Sabre-boys be damned.

[Tuna]

Thought it was a gamble, but an interesting one, and it depended on which version of Podsednik we were going to get. Was more worried about JD replacing Magglio than I was about the Podsednik/Lee trade; we got 2 big things out of it, salary flexibility and a guy who was under our control for a lot longer, but JD had been injured and bad for a couple years, and after April/May that looked like a horrible move.

 

 

ok. bad example.

[Thad Bosley]

It's hard to believe that the Sox have absolutely no power whatsoever from the left hand side of the plate. None. Nobody in the pool of A.J., Teahen, Kotsay, Pierre, or Vizquel has ever reached the 20 homerun plateau, or even sniffed 90 RBIs. You combine that with the question marks still hanging over the heads of Messrs. Quentin and Rios in terms of what we can expect from the right side of the plate this year, and we could find ourselves squandering a lot of good pitching efforts this year. Kind of scary, if you think about it.

[Soxbadger]

Matt,

 

As I said before.

 

My own eyes told me that Kotsay was more dangerous than Thome.

 

The stats then proved what my eyes saw.

 

It may not turn out that way next year, but based on what I saw last year I just didnt think Thome had much left in the tank.

 

Its my opinion, something I generally hold in high regard.

[ThunderBolt]

Matt,

 

As I said before.

 

My own eyes told me that Kotsay was more dangerous than Thome.

 

The stats then proved what my eyes saw.

No, they didn't. The stats prove exactly the opposite of what you think you saw. What you're seeing is a mirage predicated on false assumptions about two players that you've seen.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Mark Teahen is a complementary, bench player on most playoff teams. Maybe he could start for the Twins, but there aren't many upper division teams that would be giving him the starting job without any competition in Spring Training.

 

Same thing with Juan Pierre, how many teams that are legit playoff contenders would go with him as their leadoff hitter? Even if he was playing for those teams, it would be as the 8th (NL) or 9th place hitter.

 

As mentioned before, Jones and Kotsay wouldn't be part of a DH platoon for all but the 3-5 worst teams in the majors either...not even taking into consideration our home ballpark. Yes, the Rangers have a launching pad, but they also (have) had a stronger overall offense and there wasn't as much pressure on Jones to perform as there will be in Chicago in April and May.

 

Then you have the Rios enigma...I'm really curious how many other GM's would have taken on that reclamation project at those numbers? Anyone besides KW?

 

We could have put Rick Ankiel out in CF for 1/5th of the cost on a one-year contract, signed Vladimir Guerrero/N. Johnson/Matsui/Damon as our DH and had money left over to solidify the bullpen in the form of someone comparable to Dotel but with more of a history than Pena.

 

Ankiel/Damon/Dotel (etc.) or Alex Rios???

 

That questionable decision is probably the biggest single factor preventing us from spending money right now on a legit DH. forcing us to do things on the cheap again (see Wise/Anderson/Owens 2009).

 

There's one other factor here, too. Mitchell and Jordan Danks BOTH profile as better CFers than corner outfielders, the presence of Alex Rios in CF theoretically blocks both of those guys.

This is a good post, but I disagree with your view of the Rios acquisition as I think this one is going to turn out brilliantly for Kenny. The Peavy and Rios deals, as well as the Putz deal and the Dolsi and De Aza claims are traditional Kenny Williams-style moves, where a very talented young or relatively young player with upside is acquired for either nothing or way below fair value. Even the Jones deal is a typical KW-type move as Jones IIRC is still just 32, not waaay up there, and is on a very low base that is easy to eat if you have to cut him.

 

The scary moves IMO are these other ones, especially the Pierre deal which could turn out really bad. The Teahen extension is risky as well, but at least he's a decent bet for league average play all around. And what makes the Kotsay and Vizquel deals so scary isn't necessarily the amount of money they will make, it's the amount of money that could have been spent elsewhere on a starter, and the fact that these guys will combine to get a starter's number of AB. Not good.

 

I'm *hoping* that the moves in the first paragraph are Kenny's moves and the ones below are Ozzie's moves, so that if s*** hits the fan with the offense this year, Kenny can go back to being a great GM again without missing a beat. I'm guessing though that they're all Kenny's moves, including the Pierre one, because Kenny genuinely believes Ozzie's bulls***.

 

[Soxbadger]

Thunderbolt,

 

Pray tell how the stats after July of last year showed that Thome was a better hitter than Kotsay?

 

 

Thome August: .238 .298 .500 .798

 

Kotsay August: .333 .389 .467 .856

 

Kotsay September: .324 .385 .493 .878

 

Im not even including Thome's September because it was so horrific based on sporadic performance.

 

But please given this set of data, give me an argument for how Thome was better?