A comparison of the Twins' and White Sox best offensive combinatio

[longshot7]

I sure would like Damon or Delgado in that outfield-dh rotation, but if it's anything I've learned with Kenny, it's that he's usually more impatient than I am. If the DH platoon isn't working by May, I expect he'll make a move. Hell, he may make a move if it's not working two WEEKS in.

[Kyyle23]

Right, and we lost the division. What if we had a competent leadoff hitter to start the season? And then we get a hitter who hits awful to correct it. I'd rather just pay a few mill tonot have awful production from a generally great offensive spot in the lineup.

 

A competent leadoff hitter was not what you were arguing. You were talking about Wise, not Podsednik. Wise honestly made very little impact at all last year, he hurt his shoulder very early on, was injured for a month and a half, made "The catch", and was a bench player for the rest of the season.

 

If you want to argue that a competent leadoff hitter cost the Sox the division last year, well I disagree with that too. the bullpen couldnt hold a lead, and the entire team couldnt hit for about a month. If you want to talk about a specific position that truly cost the Sox from the start, I think it was fields at 3B. If Beckham started the season in the majors, I think the hitting slump that killed them in May through late June would have been drastically minimized, and even then I understood why Fields was up and Beckham was in the minors. The Sox had to see if Fields was worth anything

 

This team as a whole is constructed better than the team that started last year IMO. Because of this I think that they can weather any sort of deficiency that the lack of a true DH could bring. And like I said, IMO

[PeavyTime]

Don't we only have a 24 man roster right now? Kenny will add a DH, whether it be Damon or someone else. It's still January!!

[BFirebird]

A competent leadoff hitter was not what you were arguing. You were talking about Wise, not Podsednik. Wise honestly made very little impact at all last year, he hurt his shoulder very early on, was injured for a month and a half, made "The catch", and was a bench player for the rest of the season.

 

If you want to argue that a competent leadoff hitter cost the Sox the division last year, well I disagree with that too. the bullpen couldnt hold a lead, and the entire team couldnt hit for about a month. If you want to talk about a specific position that truly cost the Sox from the start, I think it was fields at 3B. If Beckham started the season in the majors, I think the hitting slump that killed them in May through late June would have been drastically minimized, and even then I understood why Fields was up and Beckham was in the minors. The Sox had to see if Fields was worth anything

 

This team as a whole is constructed better than the team that started last year IMO. Because of this I think that they can weather any sort of deficiency that the lack of a true DH could bring. And like I said, IMO

^^This. Way to bring your 'A' game today KyYie23. People seem to lose focus when they start talking about this team struggling without a leadoff hitter. (Possibly even KW and Ozzie sometimes). Your reasons are exactly why they struggled. Dye and the rest of the offense completely shut down and the bullpen was completely awful. KW and Ozzie want to shift the offense to try and be more consistent in scoring runs instead of having games where they score 10 one night and 1 the next. Remember how frustrating that was? While it is not a complete product yet and might not even be complete until after next offseason when a few more contracts end, I like the direction they are heading.. It is impossible to completely change philosophies after 1 offseason.

Edited January 27, 2010 by BFirebird

[bmags]

A competent leadoff hitter was not what you were arguing. You were talking about Wise, not Podsednik. Wise honestly made very little impact at all last year, he hurt his shoulder very early on, was injured for a month and a half, made "The catch", and was a bench player for the rest of the season.

 

If you want to argue that a competent leadoff hitter cost the Sox the division last year, well I disagree with that too. the bullpen couldnt hold a lead, and the entire team couldnt hit for about a month. If you want to talk about a specific position that truly cost the Sox from the start, I think it was fields at 3B. If Beckham started the season in the majors, I think the hitting slump that killed them in May through late June would have been drastically minimized, and even then I understood why Fields was up and Beckham was in the minors. The Sox had to see if Fields was worth anything

 

This team as a whole is constructed better than the team that started last year IMO. Because of this I think that they can weather any sort of deficiency that the lack of a true DH could bring. And like I said, IMO

 

Dewayne wise began last season as our starting CF and leadoff hitter. We had an incredibly sluggish 2 months during that time. Who knows how many games were lost. And yes, JD tanked, so we all could see just how dramatic an impact having a s*** hitter in position of generally high production can be.

 

But luckily we have another beckham down on the farm. guyyyyyyyyyyyyyyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

 

Thsi is an easy problem to fix, all the more maddening that they refuse to act. So no, i think its a retarded game plan to lose more games than you should jsut because now you can upgrade (likely more expensive) in the future.

[YonderLaroche]

These "Future" stats are stupid. Anything can happen, Jones can hit .290 with 35 HR 90RBI or .180 5HR 20RBI before he's cut... anything can happen.

[chw42]

Since when was Nick Punto the Twins DH?

 

He's not.

 

The comparison was done as a means of total offensive production, this does not include defense or positioning. When you take Thome out of the lineup, you have to put Punto or Young back in. If you want Thome in, you have to take out either Young or Punto because you have to assume that Cuddyer will now be at 3B and Punto will move to the bench. OR if Thome gets regular ABs, Young would go to the bench and Kubel will play LF.

 

Either way, Punto and Young are both bad offensively, you can literally swap one out for the other.

 

 

[bmags]

These "Future" stats are stupid. Anything can happen, Jones can hit .290 with 35 HR 90RBI or .180 5HR 20RBI before he's cut... anything can happen.

 

Yeah, well the latter is much more likely than the former. And you should try and put together a team based on greater likelihoods.

[BFirebird]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...362&Model=1

 

With Punto (322 OBP/324 SLG) substituted for Thome, it knocks the Twins down to 900 runs scored (a difference of 39 runs per year having Thome over Nick Punto as DH, haha).

 

Factoring in that we can't really expect Konerko to hit his career averages, it knocks the White Sox down to 800 runs scored.

 

Which means we only need to pitch at 0.617 ERA below the Twins.

 

Perhap the most interesting result (not to many) is that Gordon Beckham is the leadoff hitter in every scenario and Juan Pierre's the #9 hitter.

 

Not that we'll ever see that happen.

 

 

 

Not 100 a run difference, but with Dye (340/490) instead of Pierre and Thome in the line-up, we're at 862 runs scored.

Of course, that's not taking into consideration outfield defense, simply an offensive metric.

 

It is interesting that at least on paper we're losing about 0.4 RPG, plus the Twins are definitely gaining SOMETHING with Thome, maybe not 0.37, but probably 0.2.

 

It's a net shift between the two teams of at least half a run per game, that's pretty huge.

 

To add some perspective:

 

Last year only 5 teams in the AL scored over 800 runs and only the Yankees score over 900.

 

The White Sox were already a bottom 5 offense last year:

- 724 runs (12 out of 14)

- 246 2B (13 out of 14)

- 184 HR (6 out of 14)

- .740 OPS (11 out of 14)

 

By comparison, the Twins were a top 5 offense.

- 817 runs (4 out of 14)

- 271 2B (12 out of 14)

- 172 HR (9 out of 14)

- .774 OPS (5 out of 14)

 

At first these numbers confused me. How can the Sox have almost 100 less runs than the Twins but have 8 more home runs and only 25 less doubles? The difference is OPS and guys who can score from 2B on a single. The difference in OPS does not stem from HR or even doubles for that matter, it has to do with the Twins ability to get on base more often than the White Sox and what they do when they get on base. (not stealing bases, Sox actually had more SB than the Twins, but being able to score from 2B on a gap single or go from 1st to 3rd and then execute and get the guy in.) The Twins were 4th in OBP and the White Sox were 10th. The Twins also had 100 more walks. The more guys you get on base...the more pressure you put on the opposing pitchers, whether you can steal bases or not.

 

While the current lineup may not solve this problem, I think they are taking steps in correcting it with the more versatile (non-base clogger) players. They may pick up a few more runs with more players that can go 1st to 3rd and more doubles, but they will struggle in the OBP category. As shown in Caulfield's example, Minn has the biggest advantage in this category. I think that they are attempting to correct it...it might just take another half a year or so.

Edited January 27, 2010 by BFirebird

[RibbieRubarb]

The 2005 White Sox scored 741 runs...

[chunk23]

The 2005 White Sox scored 741 runs...

 

And had a crazy record in 1 run games that is likely to not be replicated.

[BFirebird]

And had a crazy record in 1 run games that is likely to not be replicated.

But to be fair...the Twins had a ridiculous AVG w/RISP last year that will probably not be replicated. They were over .400 for most of the year if I recall correctly. I have to find the stat.

 

**edit** Ok so either I remember incorrectly or they really cooled off because I found them at .277 (4th in AL). In 2008 they led all of MLB at .305 though. Oh well.

Edited January 27, 2010 by BFirebird

[Crash73]

He didnt finish the year as the starter. They acquired rios and never looked back.

 

There is a contingency plan in place at all times with KW. With Colon and Wise last year, it was Peavy and Rios. KW isnt stupid, Im pretty sure he understands what he has and where his deficiencies are, he has his reasons why he isnt acting, we just dont know what they are.

 

^^

Beautifully written.

 

Also what are the chances Thome gets injured? I liked Thome as a player, but got very sick of him hitting into the shift. He never adjusted.

 

[LittleHurt05]

In the past five seasons, only one AL team each season has scored over 900 runs. (NYY 3x, Bos 1x, Tex 1x) So now I am supposed to believe that the Twins due to the addition of 39-year old Jim Thome are gonna score over 900 runs and become one of the top 5 AL offenses of the last 5 years????? Wow, 2nd place here we come!

[ptatc]

The statistical consensus is that our team in the best case scenario is about as good as last years team. We've literally done nothing to improve, and are gambling on a couple x-factors to maintain last years offensive production. We're taking a hell of a risk by making a gamble like this when we have a potent pitching staff and a deep pen. If we sign Damon or Branyan, i'll be content, but if we honestly think we're going to get production out of a tandem of Kotsay, Jones, and Visquel then we're going to be giving up a lot of prospects by the time the trade deadline comes around. We're paying Mark Kotsay, the same amount of money that the Twins are paying Jim Thome. I still can't get over how absurd that it is.

 

Dang, and I thought Peavy and Garcia/Huson were an improvement over Contreras and Colon.

 

[BFirebird]

Dang, and I thought Peavy and Garcia/Huson were an improvement over Contreras and Colon.

Additionally our slight defensive improvement won't help us at all either.

[bmags]

Will one of you answer how willfully neglecting to improve a key offensive position that can easily be filled NOW, BEFORE it hurts us in the season is a wise idea?

[BFirebird]

Will one of you answer how willfully neglecting to improve a key offensive position that can easily be filled NOW, BEFORE it hurts us in the season is a wise idea?

Based on how they want to use it, how can it be an easy position to fill? Does Johnny Damon want to take less money and rotate the position with other players? Does Hank Blalock and his declining skills help us that much? Russell Branyon is not that good either. I was an early advocate for Blalock but after looking at the numbers he is just not that good anymore. Who would be a viable option at this point?

[Lillian]

The Twins' lineup is as overweighted with left handed hitters as ours is right handed. It's a good thing we have two tough southpaw starters, although I'd rather have Peavy on the mound vs any team.

 

It's too bad that we would never trade with a division rival. We could use one of those left handed bats!!

[maki]

In the past five seasons, only one AL team each season has scored over 900 runs. (NYY 3x, Bos 1x, Tex 1x) So now I am supposed to believe that the Twins due to the addition of 39-year old Jim Thome are gonna score over 900 runs and become one of the top 5 AL offenses of the last 5 years????? Wow, 2nd place here we come!

 

 

he's not saying that at all. the fact of the matter is that on average, we are expected to score substantially less runs than the twins. Nobody's saying the twins are scoring 900, but the statistics this year will definitely be correlated to the ones caufield posted. A top end of approximately 900 runs can probably be extrapolated to some sort of distribution curve where the twins will be ahead of the sox every step of the way. This isn't saying it's going to happen, but its a significantly better proposition than the sox.

 

That being said, this thing has some serious limitations. You're using two statistics and using these two alone as a substitute for any other available statistics. while they often can be a good substitute, OBP for Jim Thome most likely is way overvalued in comparison to pierre. Another thing to consider is the twins statistics are not controlled for ballpark or anything and all previous statistics are based on playing half the season in the metrodome, at least for the majority of people on the roster now. In 3 years you may see a significantly different trend for some of these guys.

 

Can anyone point me to the explanation of the musing lineup analysis page? honestly if its obp and slg only its value is probably only in taking some sort of average of different lineups and an overall comparison to an average of another team.

[iWiN4PreP]

It's too bad that we would never trade with a division rival. We could use one of those left handed bats!!

 

Haha, wouldn't that be something.

[Balta1701]

The Twins' lineup is as overweighted with left handed hitters as ours is right handed. It's a good thing we have two tough southpaw starters, although I'd rather have Peavy on the mound vs any team.

Problem is, M&M have killed Danks so far.

[Ranger]

Right, and we lost the division. What if we had a competent leadoff hitter to start the season? And then we get a hitter who hits awful to correct it. I'd rather just pay a few mill tonot have awful production from a generally great offensive spot in the lineup.

 

Aside from Lind and Kubel (both over .900), there weren't any "great" DH's last year, and I think you'd probably define those two guys as "very good" but not great. Four other guys were over .800. Decent, but certainly not great. Last year, the top 6 offensive players in the AL weren't DH's, and only 2 DH's were in the top 20 (in terms of OPS). On the other hand, 3 of the top 5 were first basemen. I just think some people are counting too much on the DH position alone. It's not quite what it used to be.

 

He's not.

 

The comparison was done as a means of total offensive production, this does not include defense or positioning. When you take Thome out of the lineup, you have to put Punto or Young back in. If you want Thome in, you have to take out either Young or Punto because you have to assume that Cuddyer will now be at 3B and Punto will move to the bench. OR if Thome gets regular ABs, Young would go to the bench and Kubel will play LF.

 

Either way, Punto and Young are both bad offensively, you can literally swap one out for the other.

 

Thome is going to be a bench player, according to their early plans. If that's true, you won't get teh same production you're used to from him...which was declining as it is.

 

 

To add some perspective:

 

Last year only 5 teams in the AL scored over 800 runs and only the Yankees score over 900.

 

The White Sox were already a bottom 5 offense last year:

- 724 runs (12 out of 14)

- 246 2B (13 out of 14)

- 184 HR (6 out of 14)

- .740 OPS (11 out of 14)

 

By comparison, the Twins were a top 5 offense.

- 817 runs (4 out of 14)

- 271 2B (12 out of 14)

- 172 HR (9 out of 14)

- .774 OPS (5 out of 14)

 

At first these numbers confused me. How can the Sox have almost 100 less runs than the Twins but have 8 more home runs and only 25 less doubles? The difference is OPS and guys who can score from 2B on a single. The difference in OPS does not stem from HR or even doubles for that matter, it has to do with the Twins ability to get on base more often than the White Sox and what they do when they get on base. (not stealing bases, Sox actually had more SB than the Twins, but being able to score from 2B on a gap single or go from 1st to 3rd and then execute and get the guy in.) The Twins were 4th in OBP and the White Sox were 10th. The Twins also had 100 more walks. The more guys you get on base...the more pressure you put on the opposing pitchers, whether you can steal bases or not.

 

While the current lineup may not solve this problem, I think they are taking steps in correcting it with the more versatile (non-base clogger) players. They may pick up a few more runs with more players that can go 1st to 3rd and more doubles, but they will struggle in the OBP category. As shown in Caulfield's example, Minn has the biggest advantage in this category. I think that they are attempting to correct it...it might just take another half a year or so.

 

Very well done.

 

[BFirebird]

Will one of you answer how willfully neglecting to improve a key offensive position that can easily be filled NOW, BEFORE it hurts us in the season is a wise idea?

Don't get me wrong. I am not defending this lineup and saying we will all of a sudden be even near Minnesota offensively. But given what they want to do and who is available now or was available when FA started....I don't see a viable option. With the pitching staff signed for 3 years (outside of Freddy and Buerhle 2 years) I see this as a 2 year process. If we are still going into the season with a similiar problem next year...then I would be more upset.

 

With the trades for Peavy and Rios...that is the same as a big FA splash. Outside of the Yankees and Red Sox, no one really adds more than 2 big contracts like that.

[elrockinMT]

Sign Joe Crede and Jermaine Dye both. They can play a posiiton and also DH. Do I hear an Amen?!