A comparison of the Twins' and White Sox best offensive combinatio

[Buehrlesque]

To add some perspective:

 

Last year only 5 teams in the AL scored over 800 runs and only the Yankees score over 900.

 

The White Sox were already a bottom 5 offense last year:

- 724 runs (12 out of 14)

- 246 2B (13 out of 14)

- 184 HR (6 out of 14)

- .740 OPS (11 out of 14)

 

By comparison, the Twins were a top 5 offense.

- 817 runs (4 out of 14)

- 271 2B (12 out of 14)

- 172 HR (9 out of 14)

- .774 OPS (5 out of 14)

 

At first these numbers confused me. How can the Sox have almost 100 less runs than the Twins but have 8 more home runs and only 25 less doubles? The difference is OPS and guys who can score from 2B on a single. The difference in OPS does not stem from HR or even doubles for that matter, it has to do with the Twins ability to get on base more often than the White Sox and what they do when they get on base. (not stealing bases, Sox actually had more SB than the Twins, but being able to score from 2B on a gap single or go from 1st to 3rd and then execute and get the guy in.) The Twins were 4th in OBP and the White Sox were 10th. The Twins also had 100 more walks. The more guys you get on base...the more pressure you put on the opposing pitchers, whether you can steal bases or not.

 

While the current lineup may not solve this problem, I think they are taking steps in correcting it with the more versatile (non-base clogger) players. They may pick up a few more runs with more players that can go 1st to 3rd and more doubles, but they will struggle in the OBP category. As shown in Caulfield's example, Minn has the biggest advantage in this category. I think that they are attempting to correct it...it might just take another half a year or so.

Great post, and I agree it is wise to get away from the base clogger mentality. I mean, for a while you had Thome, Konerko, Dye, Pierzysnki and a hobbled Quentin all hitting in a row. Has there EVER been a slower 5-some in the history of baseball?

 

I agree the Sox are more likely to score from second on a single (or in general take the extra base on a hit) now, which is important. BUT... they've done NOTHING to address OBP. They tried, once, before the '08 season when they brought in Swisher and Quentin. Swisher bombed, Quentin was great but battled injuries.

 

So this offseason it's Ozzie's way: players with stubbornly low OBP: Pierre, Kotsay and Jones.

 

[Buehrlesque]

He didnt finish the year as the starter. They acquired rios and never looked back.

 

There is a contingency plan in place at all times with KW. With Colon and Wise last year, it was Peavy and Rios. KW isnt stupid, Im pretty sure he understands what he has and where his deficiencies are, he has his reasons why he isnt acting, we just dont know what they are.

Yeah, I'm sure KW has some kind of midseason contingency plan also, possibly involving Adrian Gonzalez or Adam Dunn. But, short of a blockbuster move like that, wouldn't it be nice to see him address the issue now and give this team some continuity before it even becomes a problem at all?

[BFirebird]

Great post, and I agree it is wise to get away from the base clogger mentality. I mean, for a while you had Thome, Konerko, Dye, Pierzysnki and a hobbled Quentin all hitting in a row. Has there EVER been a slower 5-some in the history of baseball?

 

I agree the Sox are more likely to score from second on a single (or in general take the extra base on a hit) now, which is important. BUT... they've done NOTHING to address OBP. They tried, once, before the '08 season when they brought in Swisher and Quentin. Swisher bombed, Quentin was great but battled injuries.

 

So this offseason it's Ozzie's way: players with stubbornly low OBP: Pierre, Kotsay and Jones.

OBP is definitely a HUGE issue with this team. Even with the changes they have made.

[witesoxfan]

From what I have observed in my 10 or so years of watching and reading about baseball, teams with good pitching staffs and versatile yet bad to mediocre offenses generally overachieve their Pyth W-L, whereas teams with mediocre pitching staffs and great offenses generally underachieve their Pyth W-L. This is because those teams with good pitching staffs and versatile offenses will be able to win closer games at a much higher rate, whereas those teams with great offenses but mediocre pitching staffs will be able to come back from deficits, but will also give the opposing team runs right back.

 

Essentially, assuming that Quentin and Konerko put up around .850, Beckham and Rios put up around .800 and everyone else in the lineup does whatever they want, and the rotation performs generally how it should, this season is going to come down to the effectiveness of the bullpen.

[shago]

OBP is definitely a HUGE issue with this team. Even with the changes they have made.

 

Until they sign Johnny Damon

[bigruss]

From what I have observed in my 10 or so years of watching and reading about baseball, teams with good pitching staffs and versatile yet bad to mediocre offenses generally overachieve their Pyth W-L, whereas teams with mediocre pitching staffs and great offenses generally underachieve their Pyth W-L. This is because those teams with good pitching staffs and versatile offenses will be able to win closer games at a much higher rate, whereas those teams with great offenses but mediocre pitching staffs will be able to come back from deficits, but will also give the opposing team runs right back.

 

Essentially, assuming that Quentin and Konerko put up around .850, Beckham and Rios put up around .800 and everyone else in the lineup does whatever they want, and the rotation performs generally how it should, this season is going to come down to the effectiveness of the bullpen.

I would say the defense is just as big of a question as the offense is. And I say that because of the direct impact it has on our pitchers.

[ThunderBolt]

Dang, and I thought Peavy and Garcia/Huson were an improvement over Contreras and Colon.

I was referring to the offense. And this offseason too. Anyone could tell by the end of last year that our pitching would be a force to be reckoned with. It was also clear that our offense needed to improve. It hasn't.

Edited January 27, 2010 by Thunderbolt

[Kyyle23]

Yeah, I'm sure KW has some kind of midseason contingency plan also, possibly involving Adrian Gonzalez or Adam Dunn. But, short of a blockbuster move like that, wouldn't it be nice to see him address the issue now and give this team some continuity before it even becomes a problem at all?

 

I agree, I would like to see the Sox go into the season with all of their problems addressed, but it isnt a perfect world and KW determined that at this time he couldnt patch up every problem. Im not saying that this team is great, or even good at this point, but I am willing to see what they have before I will completely write it off and jump off a bridge.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I would say the defense is just as big of a question as the offense is. And I say that because of the direct impact it has on our pitchers.

 

I think our defense is going to be fine. Pierzynski is a middle of the pack defensive catcher, Beckham should be about average or so, I look for Ramirez to improve a bit, Rios is a plus defender in CF. That's generally all I consider when I look at a defense.

 

If you want more, Quentin should improve but still be a negative fielder in right (he was regarded as a great defender in right coming out of college) and Pierre should have plenty of range with absolutely no arm whatsoever in LF. Konerko is, for lack of a better term, a brick wall at 1B - he doesn't move but nothing gets by him. Teahen's a wild card, but I'm expecting about average defense from him.

[heirdog]

This analysis was flawed from the start. You can't say Konerko won't have a career avg year and at the same time say Thome will. One has a hip issue, the other a back issue...one is still significantly younger than the other. One still played pretty much the whole year last year and put up better numbers...that one is Konerko, not Thome.

 

And the final nail in the coffin is when someone noted that only 5 teams scored over 800 runs and only the Yanks over 900. As soon as we see that, we can throw out the 939 twinkie number and go back to the drawing board.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I could honestly see Thome playing about 100 games this season, all against right handed pitching, and putting up an OPS of about .850, assuming the only time he sees the lineup is against right handed pitching.

 

I also don't think people really appreciate how good Cuddyer and Kubel were last season. Cuddyer put up an .862 OPS and had 73 XBHs while Kubel put up 65 XBHs and a .907 OPS and an OPS over 1.000 against right handed pitching.

[BFirebird]

This analysis was flawed from the start. You can't say Konerko won't have a career avg year and at the same time say Thome will. One has a hip issue, the other a back issue...one is still significantly younger than the other. One still played pretty much the whole year last year and put up better numbers...that one is Konerko, not Thome.

 

And the final nail in the coffin is when someone noted that only 5 teams scored over 800 runs and only the Yanks over 900. As soon as we see that, we can throw out the 939 twinkie number and go back to the drawing board.

I wouldn't take the runs number for it's face value, I think the point he was trying to get across was they are roughly 100 runs or so better than the Sox...which they were last year as well. I just broke it down further and explained why I thought they were so much better than us offensively. OPS (mostly OBP) and better base running skills.

[bigruss]

I think our defense is going to be fine. Pierzynski is a middle of the pack defensive catcher, Beckham should be about average or so, I look for Ramirez to improve a bit, Rios is a plus defender in CF. That's generally all I consider when I look at a defense.

 

If you want more, Quentin should improve but still be a negative fielder in right (he was regarded as a great defender in right coming out of college) and Pierre should have plenty of range with absolutely no arm whatsoever in LF. Konerko is, for lack of a better term, a brick wall at 1B - he doesn't move but nothing gets by him. Teahen's a wild card, but I'm expecting about average defense from him.

I see alot of question marks still, Im not saying they wont be decent to good, but theres a large chance (IMO) that this defense is pretty poor (youre really depending on guys improving). Thats the scary part to me, that youre depending on the pitching staff to carry you and yet your defense is suspect at a lot of positions.

 

I see LF as a liability, RF could be bad depending on Quentin's health, Alexi may not improve (or be consistent again), Gordo could struggle a bit at 2b (i think itll take an adjustment period), Teahen could benefit from having one position or he could just be a poor 3b, and AJ and Paulie are good at some things but weak at others.

[BFirebird]

I could honestly see Thome playing about 100 games this season, all against right handed pitching, and putting up an OPS of about .850, assuming the only time he sees the lineup is against right handed pitching.

 

I also don't think people really appreciate how good Cuddyer and Kubel were last season. Cuddyer put up an .862 OPS and had 73 XBHs while Kubel put up 65 XBHs and a .907 OPS and an OPS over 1.000 against right handed pitching.

They are definitely very underrated players. Cuddyer had a career year (which he could duplicate based on where he hits in the lineup), but I can see Kubel even getting better.

[witesoxfan]

I see alot of question marks still, Im not saying they wont be decent to good, but theres a large chance (IMO) that this defense is pretty poor (youre really depending on guys improving). Thats the scary part to me, that youre depending on the pitching staff to carry you and yet your defense is suspect at a lot of positions.

 

I see LF as a liability, RF could be bad depending on Quentin's health, Alexi may not improve (or be consistent again), Gordo could struggle a bit at 2b (i think itll take an adjustment period), Teahen could benefit from having one position or he could just be a poor 3b, and AJ and Paulie are good at some things but weak at others.

 

I don't see LF as a liability. Pierre, in his career, has been a 6.4 UZR/150 LFer. He has makeup speed, and though I haven't seen how he reacts, it has to be atleast decently for him to put that up over 173 games. He doesn't have an arm, but an arm in LF isn't necessary (though something comparable to my arm isn't really what the doctor is looking for).

 

The biggest two question marks are Alexei and Beckham. Alexei is entering his 2nd full season at SS and he was solid last year. Beckham exhibited range at 3B but it appeared he wasn't used to the speed of the position. I think the biggest thing with Beckham is going to be his footwork at 2B, and that is where the adjustment period could be noticed but I think he'll be absolutely fine. Having Vizquel on board should really help both of those two along with the infield defense off the bench period. I also envision Vizquel being a late inning replacement for Teahen at 3B if he proves he isn't a capable defender, and he may do that anyways even if Teahen does.

 

Team defense is the least of my concerns.

[bigruss]

I don't see LF as a liability. Pierre, in his career, has been a 6.4 UZR/150 LFer. He has makeup speed, and though I haven't seen how he reacts, it has to be atleast decently for him to put that up over 173 games. He doesn't have an arm, but an arm in LF isn't necessary (though something comparable to my arm isn't really what the doctor is looking for).

 

The biggest two question marks are Alexei and Beckham. Alexei is entering his 2nd full season at SS and he was solid last year. Beckham exhibited range at 3B but it appeared he wasn't used to the speed of the position. I think the biggest thing with Beckham is going to be his footwork at 2B, and that is where the adjustment period could be noticed but I think he'll be absolutely fine. Having Vizquel on board should really help both of those two along with the infield defense off the bench period. I also envision Vizquel being a late inning replacement for Teahen at 3B if he proves he isn't a capable defender, and he may do that anyways even if Teahen does.

 

Team defense is the least of my concerns.

The team defense could be fine, but I see it as an issue until they prove they have improved/are actually decent at their position. I just feel that if we are going to have a suspect offense that you need a stalwart defense to go along with your stellar pitching staff. For me, its a wait and see game with the defense.

[Ranger]

The team defense could be fine, but I see it as an issue until they prove they have improved/are actually decent at their position. I just feel that if we are going to have a suspect offense that you need a stalwart defense to go along with your stellar pitching staff. For me, its a wait and see game with the defense.

 

 

I see plenty of reason to believe the defense will at least be "fine". It should be plenty better than last year, for sure.

[caulfield12]

This analysis was flawed from the start. You can't say Konerko won't have a career avg year and at the same time say Thome will. One has a hip issue, the other a back issue...one is still significantly younger than the other. One still played pretty much the whole year last year and put up better numbers...that one is Konerko, not Thome.

 

And the final nail in the coffin is when someone noted that only 5 teams scored over 800 runs and only the Yanks over 900. As soon as we see that, we can throw out the 939 twinkie number and go back to the drawing board.

 

If you noted later in the thread, I swapped out Thome for Punto, it drove them down to a measly 900 runs.

 

This was based on last year's averages for the Twins, and I used just last year's numbers for Thome, not his career numbers, which are obviously stronger. The difference for Paulie from career to last year was just 0.07 on OBP and about 0.16 on SLG.

 

When I recalculated, the White Sox went from 808 to 800 if I more realistically bumped Konerko down a bit.

 

If I went with Andruw Jones' 2009 numbers alone instead of the 3 year sliding average, things might have been better, same with Pierre.

 

HOWEVER, since Quentin and Rios were given credit for their overall average numbers over a career, that obviously was a big jump over what they both produced last year. Many are HOPING Beckham can put up an 850, but I think it's fair to leave him around 807 for now.

 

As someone else noted, Kubel and Cuddyer had great years, and Mauer as well. Are those repeatable? Probably not. Of course, the chances are that Harris and Punto won't get all of those at-bats either over the course of a season. If you stick Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez or Orlando Cabrera (742 OPS) into the equation instead of Punto's (622/624) line, the numbers shoot up again for the Twins. Or even Joe Crede.

Edited January 28, 2010 by caulfield12

[gatnom]

I see plenty of reason to believe the defense will at least be "fine". It should be plenty better than last year, for sure.

 

This. The only people who I'd worry about being below average would be Teahen and AJ. Quentin should be average to above average presuming he gets more comfortable on his foot. In RF, he had an UZR/150 of 12.3 in 966 innings with the Diamondbacks. Beckham also won't be given a position he's never played before with just a week or so to prepare this time, so I don't think it's out of the question that he will be pretty good himself. Alexei should improve on his first season as a SS. He wasn't nearly as bad as he looked putting up a 2.4 UZR/150. As wite said, Pierre will be fine in LF, and I don't think Rios needs any defending.

 

Of all the things on this team, the defense is what I would worry about the least.

[caulfield12]

I see plenty of reason to believe the defense will at least be "fine". It should be plenty better than last year, for sure.

 

 

Clearly, the outfield defense will be stronger than it was last year, especially if Jones could play the OF with Quentin DHing.

 

Pierre is probably one of the most fundamentally/mentally sound players in the game, he doesn't make mental mistakes. He will always be limited by his arm strength, but we won't be holding our heads in our hands with anxiety every time a ball goes into LF like we did with Pods (and yes, he was actually better last year than in the past).

 

Rios will be very good in CF and RF and reminds me a lot of Devon White, so smooth and effortless he actually looks lazy. No diving around on nearly every play like Aaron Rowand.

 

However, Teahen is always going to be shaky at 3B...unless we compare him to Fields. Or maybe he will finally "relax" if he can play just one position and not worry about the outfield, 2B, 1B, etc.

 

Ramirez SHOULD be better in his second full season, and Beckham SHOULD be better than Getz as a converted SS.

 

Konerko is Konerko.

 

I expect "middle of the pack" defensive numbers from this team. The Twins went from one of the worst defenses to "very good" in just a season or two, same with the Mariners, it's possible.

Edited January 28, 2010 by caulfield12

[chw42]

Thome is going to be a bench player, according to their early plans. If that's true, you won't get teh same production you're used to from him...which was declining as it is.

 

But when you go to war, all plans go to hell.

 

I'm pretty sure Gardenhire will notice that Thome>Young offensively and start playing Thome more when Young struggles, which will probably happen.

Edited January 28, 2010 by chw42

[caulfield12]

If Thome is getting 300-350 at-bats against primarily LHP, his SLG/OBP/OPS numbers would INCREASE, not decrease.

 

Average Thome's numbers with Delmon Young/Kubel, and they have to be an even stronger team unless Thome absolutely falls off a cliff, but I don't foresee that happening.

 

 

[RockRaines]

I could honestly see Thome playing about 100 games this season, all against right handed pitching, and putting up an OPS of about .850, assuming the only time he sees the lineup is against right handed pitching.

 

I also don't think people really appreciate how good Cuddyer and Kubel were last season. Cuddyer put up an .862 OPS and had 73 XBHs while Kubel put up 65 XBHs and a .907 OPS and an OPS over 1.000 against right handed pitching.

Since Kubel is going to play about 100 games at DH, where are the other 38 games that Thome will play there? Spring Training?

[ScottyDo]

I'm surprised nobody's mentioned this:

 

What percentage of Span's leadoff ability is due to the ol' Metrodome infield singles? Is it an appreciable percent? How about the other speedsters in the lineup?

 

Presumably, that conveyor belt of an infield is not going to benefit them any longer, unless they cut the new grass REAAAAAALLY short. I don't know how many runs these types of singles would lead to, and thus how many runs should be taken off the Minny board for next season, but I would think it would at least be appreciable. I mean, obviously they don't benefit Mauer, Morneau, or Cuddyer in terms of OBP but they DO drive up the OBP in front of them.

 

Just a thought.

[witesoxfan]

Since Kubel is going to play about 100 games at DH, where are the other 38 games that Thome will play there? Spring Training?

 

What reason do you have to believe that Kubel is going get that much play at DH? Yeah, he played there last year, because the Twins didn't have a hitter of Thome's caliber on the bench and the other two outfielders aside from Cuddyer and Span were Gomez (who plays a phenomenal CF) and Delmon Young, who the Twins have tried to get to produce but have failed. Delmon Young appears to be the backup to me at this point with Kubel being the primary LF and Thome being the primary DH.

 

Thome will take a backseat with a lefty on the mound and when Mauer needs a day off from catching.