Worst Farm System in MLB

[LittleHurt05]

More on Hudson by Mr. Law:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index...;name=law_keith

 

Dan Hudson, RHP: I probably received more questions about Hudson than about any other player omitted from my top 100, but I left him off because of his lack of ceiling. He's probably a fourth starter in the big leagues, perhaps less, with more than one evaluator telling me they saw him strictly as a No. 5. Hudson will pitch in the big leagues this year; the White Sox have Freddy Garcia penciled in as their fifth starter, but he's throwing glorified batting practice at this point and hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy for a full year since 2006. Hudson will throw four pitches but is primarily fastball-slider-change, nothing plus with a fastball that sits in the low 90s, and as a fly-ball pitcher he may not be the ideal fit for whatever they're calling New Comiskey these days.

[ThunderBolt]

Huh, for a stats guy Keith Law sure seems to be ignoring every relevant stat in this discussion.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Huh, for a stats guy Keith Law sure seems to be ignoring every relevant stat in this discussion.

 

While dissing the stadium acting as if we change the name every couple years. 2 names in the history of the stadium? Yes? Even Chase Field in Arizona has had 2 names already in it's 12 years of existence.

[bigruss]

Huh, for a stats guy Keith Law sure seems to be ignoring every relevant stat in this discussion.

For an idiot and Sox-hater, Law sure seems to be doing exactly what was expected out of him.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

More on Hudson by Mr. Law:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index...;name=law_keith

I understand why people are so down on D2, but his thoughts on Hudson are just f***ing retarded.

[southsider2k5]

Didn't one publication have Hudson listed at the second best pitching prospect?

[Ozzie Ball]

Didn't one publication have Hudson listed at the second best pitching prospect?

Yeah, Project Prospect did. They've backed off it since then though. He's not on their top 25 prospects list which puts him behind at least 6 other pitchers.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I have no idea how you could watch Hudson and not see anything to write home about. I saw a plus FB, a borderline plus change that should become a plus change, a slider with potential that had been considered a plus pitch by others in the past, along with a developing curve, and the type of fearlessness a pitcher needs to have success in the major leagues. He's not an ace, but his ceiling is definitely in the #2-#3 range IMO, and that's as an AL pitcher.

 

I'm also put off by his Freddy Garcia comments. There comes a time when you just have to watch a guy pitch and see how he uses what he has to his advantage. It's funny how he talked about the 2006 Freddy as the last healthy version of Freddy and then goes on to rip him for his diminished FB velocity now. Well, that 2006 Freddy had the same stuff that the 2010 Freddy should be expected to have, and statistically the 2006 Freddy had a very good season: good enough to pitch 3rd in most rotations and head several poor ones, and good enough to get Floyd and Gio in trade. Beyond that, the 2010 Freddy might even be healthier considering he's recovered from his surgery. Whether Freddy will hold up or not is anyone's guess, but if the end of 2009 Freddy and the 2006 Freddy are both garbage, then roughly 50-60% of starting pitchers in baseball are worse than garbage, and those guys are getting paid a hell of a lot more than Freddy will make this upcoming season.

 

Also on Freddy, he made 9 starts last season for us, and while still building up strength and working on the command of his breaking stuff, and yet he still threw 7 quality starts. Of the two that weren't, the first was his first start back with the Sox, and the second time he had actually thrown a quality start, but Ozzie sent him out there for the 7th anyway even though it was apparent that Freddy didn't have anything left that game. Freddy then put some guys on, Ozzie left Freddy in until the Tigers scored twice that inning, and then he brought in the gas can Tony Pena to finish the job. So really it should have been 8 QS in 9 starts with Ozzie to blame for that one.

Edited February 2, 2010 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[scenario]

I'm less irritated than I was earlier with Law's comments. Frankly, it sets him up to look really stupid when Hudson does well this year. And that's just fine with me.

 

I love his comments suggesting Hudson has a low ceiling with his low-90's fastball and 3 other pitches. What??

 

So... a pitcher with a low-90's fastball, with a good change-up and slider, and a respectable 'show-me' curve, who can get the ball over the plate consistently (4.5 K/BB) is a marginal prospect, eh?

 

LOL.

Edited February 2, 2010 by scenario

[witesoxfan]

I think Dan Hudson would probably be a #4 this season, with the potential to be a #2-3.

[Dick Allen]

Law doesn't know too much about Hudson. That was obvious in his chat. Saying a minor leaguer who doesn't throw 95 mph doesn't have a high ceiling and projects out to a #4 or #5 starter at best is just playing it very conservatively. Chances are Hudson will never be a Cy Young candidate, odds are he will be a #4 or #5 starter someday, especially with the Sox current rotation.

 

Any of us can go through his top 100 list and say each player will suck in the major leagues. We'll be correct most of the time.

Edited February 3, 2010 by Dick Allen

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I think Dan Hudson would probably be a #4 this season, with the potential to be a #2-3.

 

I don't think Hudson will be a #4 this season, but I can see him being one of the best #5 starters in baseball. I really like Hudson and he looks good for a 22-year-old.

[witesoxfan]

I don't think Hudson will be a #4 this season, but I can see him being one of the best #5 starters in baseball. I really like Hudson and he looks good for a 22-year-old.

 

Being one of the best #5 starters in baseball would make him a #4 or even a #3 starter. I didn't say he'd be the #4 in the Sox rotation - it's pretty obvious that Peavy, Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks are all better than him currently.

[Ranger]

I wouldn't spend a second worrying about anything Keith Law has to say, positive or negative. Rankings are irrelevant and the only thing that matters is how this current group of prospects does when they finally get here.

 

Well in fairness to Law, he is a stats guy. Floyd was posting 6 K/9, 5 BB/9. That's not a Major League pitcher. Gavin Floyd's turnaround was seemingly unforeseeable by everyone other than Kenny and his scouting team.

 

Which is exactly why you can't only use numbers to evaluate a player. Especially a minor leaguer.

 

If SD has the same impression about the Sox prospects as Keith Law, there pretty much is zero chance Adrian Gonzalez ever becomes a White Sox.

 

 

Don't worry about that stuff. Teams do their own scouting and evaluations. They really aren't worried about BA rankings or what Keith Law says.

[Quin]

While dissing the stadium acting as if we change the name every couple years. 2 names in the history of the stadium? Yes? Even Chase Field in Arizona has had 2 names already in it's 12 years of existence.

 

I think that was his biggest display of anti-Sox mentality.

 

For an idiot and Sox-hater, Law sure seems to be doing exactly what was expected out of him.

 

Yup. When Hudson does well, Klaw can go screw himself.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Being one of the best #5 starters in baseball would make him a #4 or even a #3 starter. I didn't say he'd be the #4 in the Sox rotation - it's pretty obvious that Peavy, Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks are all better than him currently.

 

Ok. Yeah, I thought you meant he can be the #4 guy in our rotation, which won't happen obviously. I can def. see him being a #3 quality starter this year as well.

[bighurt4life]

More on Hudson by Mr. Law:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index...;name=law_keith

 

 

If you scroll down and read the comments Law gets fairly well ripped by a couple of folks for his anti-Sox bias, one guy even says that he's not a Sox fan just can't stand KLaw's bias. The really funny think is that Law starts responding to some of the critical posts and cries like a little girl with a skinned knee. He's not very professional, that's for sure.

 

I find it amazing that after catching tons of s*** for not including Hudson on his top 100 prospects list he puts Hudson on his impact rookies list, then proceeds to say NOTHING positive about him.

 

One last b**** about him, he obviously hasn't seen Hudson pitch or seen any video on him if he thinks that Dan doesn't have any plus pitches. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and I've even heard reports of it touching the upper 90's when he's really throwing hard, on top of that, his FB has crazy movement, if that's not a plus pitch then would someone please tell me what is.

Edited February 4, 2010 by bighurt4life

[Quin]

If you scroll down and read the comments Law gets fairly well ripped by a couple of folks for his anti-Sox bias, one guy even says that he's not a Sox fan just can't stand KLaw's bias. The really funny think is that Law starts responding to some of the critical posts and cries like a little girl with a skinned knee. He's not very professional, that's for sure.

 

I find it amazing that after catching tons of s*** for not including Hudson on his top 100 prospects list he puts Hudson on his impact rookies list, then proceeds to say NOTHING positive about him.

 

One last b**** about him, he obviously hasn't seen Hudson pitch or seen any video on him if he thinks that Dan doesn't have any plus pitches. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and I've even heard reports of it touching the upper 90's when he's really throwing hard, on top of that, his FB has crazy movement, if that's not a plus pitch then would someone please tell me what is.

 

Can you post some of the comments? Even those are insider.

 

[scenario]

I know I've knocked Law alot... but now I'm going to play devil's advocate. Here are a few concerns he's expressed about Hudson which may have some legitimacy.

 

In his opinion, the pitches and pitch combinations that Hudson has been so effective with don't yet translate well to success at the major league level.

 

For example...

- His fastball tends to drop from low 90's to high 80's and flattens out over the course of a game.

- He needs to demonstrate more success with his slider against right-handed hitters... otherwise he's going to be too predictable. (He tends to go almost exclusively fastball-changeup against righties. Not sure if it's a confidence issue with the slider or effectiveness issue or both.)

- His flyball rate is too high.

 

So far, those issues have not been a problem in the minors, but could limit his success (especially as a starter) at the major league level.

Edited February 4, 2010 by scenario

[False Alarm]

I know I've knocked Law alot... but now I'm going to play devil's advocate. Here are a few concerns he's expressed about Hudson which may have some legitimacy.

 

In his opinion, the pitches and pitch combinations that Hudson has been so effective with don't yet translate well to success at the major league level.

 

For example...

- His fastball tends to drop from low 90's to high 80's and flattens out over the course of a game.

- He needs to demonstrate more success with his slider against right-handed hitters... otherwise he's going to be too predictable. (He tends to go almost exclusively fastball-changeup against righties. Not sure if it's a confidence issue with the slider or effectiveness issue or both.)

- His flyball rate is too high.

 

So far, those issues have not been a problem in the minors, but could limit his success (especially as a starter) at the major league level.

the flyball concern is legit. i can't speak to those other things, but it's hard to believe law has huddy scouted so thoroughly when earlier he dismissed hudson's performance because it was in A ball even though hudson spent the bulk of the year in the upper levels.

 

honestly though i'm not sure law has an anti-sox bias. i've seen fans of other teams complaining about his rankings quite a bit too. i think it's just his schtick to be an arrogant prick and antagonize people. he probably thinks of himself as provocative. gets page views.

[Melissa1334]

I don't think he's going to care much about the politics of dealing Gonzalez so much as he cares about the prospects he gets back. From everything I've heard, Westmoreland and Kelly are basically can't miss prospects (we really only have one player who could turn into a can't miss prospect at this point in Mitchell), and I've heard good things about Reddick and Anderson as well, and they could honestly deal Buccholz is they really wanted to as well.

 

The one advantage the Sox might have is their two tradeable prospects up the middle in Flowers and Danks, especially Flowers. It's not easy to find a catcher with that type of offensive ability, so he is very, very valuable. From what docsox mentioned in a post somewhere, the Sox apparently have an offer on the table for Gonzalez of Flowers, Danks, and Hudson, but they don't want to do it. I imagine it's because the Sox are in absolute love with Flowers, and with Pierzynski's contract expiring this year, it makes some sense that they'll probably put Flowers into the catcher's role in 2011. I also imagine there's quite a bit of love for Hudson too, but I don't think Williams is afraid to trade a pitcher. I read an article in a Baseball Prospectus book that pitching prospects flameout about 67% of the time, while hitting prospects are generally around 40-50% of the time. I see that, and then look to Brandon McCarthy, who had a similar progression during the 2004 season though not nearly as dominant as Hudson's was, and how he looked great when he came up in 2005.

 

I'm rambling now, but the point is that, from what I gather, Flowers is the main piece in the entire deal and could be the difference between Gonzalez joining the White Sox, the Red Sox, or staying in San Diego, and that I really don't think it's anyone else in the entire system (other than Beckham, who's obviously not going anywhere).

do u think thats true? i sort of dont because as much as we think theyre ligit, (i think so), gonzalez is too good to pass up because of 3 prospects. i can see why sd might not want to, but from the sox standpoint, they should jump on it. to me, the only reason i just dont see the sox maybe not wanting or getting him is that because when he becomes a fa, hes easily going to want 5+ years and they simply just dont like to hand out long term deals

Edited February 5, 2010 by Melissa1334

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

do u think thats true? i sort of dont because as much as we think theyre ligit, (i think so), gonzalez is too good to pass up because of 3 prospects. i can see why sd might not want to, but from the sox standpoint, they should jump on it. to me, the only reason i just dont see the sox maybe not wanting or getting him is that because when he becomes a fa, hes easily going to want 5+ years and they simply just dont like to hand out long term deals

Agree. Two years of Adrian plus Type-A compensation afterwards is more than worth that price IMO. It's about championships, and Adrian is the kind of player that could take our rotation deep into the playoffs where they have a chance to win one.

 

BTW I have no idea why fans here would care about giving up any of these prospects. Every big trade it's the same thing: everyone loves a player, and then as soon as he's gone it's time to talk about that player's faults and how he's probably never going to do anything major. Sox fans turned on Reed, DLS, Young, etc. in a heartbeat. Even the hatred for the BMac trade only seemed to last a couple of days, and he was a big part of our title win in '05. Trust me, if SoxTalk users log in tomorrow and see "Sox Acquire Adrian Gonzalez" sitting there as the top thread in the Palehose Talk section, and then they see we just gave up Hudson, Flowers, Danks, and maybe some filler, everybody is going to go f***ing nuts with joy and start thinking about the ALCS vs. the Red Sox or Yankees. I don't put any stock in that reported offer, but if it's true, the Sox are crazy for passing that up.

[Melissa1334]

Agree. Two years of Adrian plus Type-A compensation afterwards is more than worth that price IMO. It's about championships, and Adrian is the kind of player that could take our rotation deep into the playoffs where they have a chance to win one.

 

BTW I have no idea why fans here would care about giving up any of these prospects. Every big trade it's the same thing: everyone loves a player, and then as soon as he's gone it's time to talk about that player's faults and how he's probably never going to do anything major. Sox fans turned on Reed, DLS, Young, etc. in a heartbeat. Even the hatred for the BMac trade only seemed to last a couple of days, and he was a big part of our title win in '05. Trust me, if SoxTalk users log in tomorrow and see "Sox Acquire Adrian Gonzalez" sitting there as the top thread in the Palehose Talk section, and then they see we just gave up Hudson, Flowers, Danks, and maybe some filler, everybody is going to go f***ing nuts with joy and start thinking about the ALCS vs. the Red Sox or Yankees. I don't put any stock in that reported offer, but if it's true, the Sox are crazy for passing that up.

yea, cant see prospects holding kenny back. agone adds a whole new dimension to the lineup. imagine agone and cq in the middle of that linuep? wow.

[witesoxfan]

I don't believe necessarily believe it to be 100% true, but I think the Sox are really high on both Flowers and Hudson. If they think both could be very good, you are essentially looking at 10-12 years of good productivity opposed to 2 years of great productivity. It's a bit of a business decision and an opportunity cost dilemma.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

yea, cant see prospects holding kenny back. agone adds a whole new dimension to the lineup. imagine agone and cq in the middle of that linuep? wow.

 

L Pierre LF

R Rios CF

R Quentin RF

L Gonzalez 1B

R Konerko DH

L Pierzynski C

R Beckham 2B

L Teahen 3B

R Ramirez SS

 

I'd be on board with that.