Republican 2012 Nomination Thread

[Rex Kickass]

So for all the talk of the fact that the narrative changed last night, the mathematics of it didn't.

 

Romney was never supposed to win either of these Southern states. Two weeks ago, he was expected to finish in second or third. And it was close enough that the delegate edge is very slight for Santorum on the night. In fact, taking into account Hawaii and Samoa, it was nonexistent.

 

Based on CNN and CSPAN Delegate Projections, it worked out this way last night:

Ron Paul got 1 delegate

Newt Gingrich got 21 delegates

Rick Santorum got 35 delegates

Mitt Romney got 39 delegates

 

Not exactly the pace he needs to wrap it up anytime soon, but if the math is getting a little harder for Romney, its getting near impossible for everyone else.

[caulfield12]

Let's say Gingrich drops out and asks all of his delegates to go to Santorum, that changes the narrative very quickly.

 

If they continue to split the vote 4 ways, it will take Romney until June or the convention to get to 1144. Over half the states have already voted, and he's still well short of 50% of the delegates.

 

All bets are off if Romney loses Illinois. He survived Ohio and Michigan, but just barely, with a 4 to 1 spending advantage.

 

The next 3 weeks are almost all going to be completely unfavorable for Romney...unless he can take Illinois soundly and cancel out Missouri and Louisiana, which isn't very likely.

 

There's just no way he can lose Illinois and keep being able to go to the well and asking for more and more money when the GOP wants to launch all their ammunition at Obama ASAP.

 

In the end, the GOP leadership has to be very, very nervous again, just like they were before OH and MI.

 

In the expectations game, Romney was expected a couple of days ago (with all the endorsements on his side, practically) to take at least AL. He finished 3rd in both races, even though it was pretty close. They did a lot of appearances as well as pumping in a ton of money at the last second when they thought they could get one of those states to tip in their favor....and start crafting the argument that the race should wind down and move on to the general election phase.

 

Any time your main narrative or selling point is simply "we have more delegates," it's going to fall a bit flat with the media and they'll continue to circle like sharks with blood in the water, nipping at Romney's campaign organization, messaging, lack of ability to connect with true conservatives, those making under $100,000, evangelicals, etc.

 

The irony is this is the same exact group Obama struggled with consistently to take away from Hilary in places like PA, OH and WV. He never managed to pull off the feat. It's those "clinging to guns and religion" former Democrats/independents that Romney also is failing miserably to connect with.

 

 

This morning you were going to read a post from me saying Mitt Romney was definitely now the nominee and it was time for Santorum and Gingrich to drop out. The post was predicated on late polling and early corresponding exit polling from yesterday showing that Mitt Romney won Mississippi. He had finally won in the south.

 

But the early exits changed with the late exits. The late polling was wrong. Happily I could delete my post. Not only did Mitt Romney not win either Alabama or Mississippi, but he is, as you wake up, coming in third in both. The polls were wrong.

 

Yesterday, Mitt Romney went on CNN and told Wolf Blitzer that Rick Santorum’s campaign was coming to a “desperate end.” That seems more apt this morning to Romney’s southern campaign. Given his poor showing, it’s understandable if you expect Newt Gingrich to call on Romney to get out.

 

There is a lot to review in this biggest story of the day. But the start should be a simple question: does Mitt Romney need more debates?

The Romney camp signaled it was tired of the debates. But in the Florida debates the Romney camp largely destroyed Gingrich before winning Florida. In the Mesa, AZ debate on CNN the Romney camp ruined Rick Santorum before winning Arizona and barely Michigan.

 

Both times the Romney campaign used good debate performances to rebound lagging poll numbers into real momentum. Then he decided to stop debating. Out of sight and out of mind, conservatives forgot why they thought he was the guy who could beat Obama.

 

Does he need to get back to debating?

 

The most striking thing about last night’s elections is that none of the candidates can close the deal. In effect, there was a three way tie, though it worked to Romney’s disadvantage.

 

Newt Gingrich last night proved he is neither a regional candidate nor a spoiler. His influence is headed into Ron Paul territory. Gingrich could not win the deep south. He won Georgia and South Carolina. A Catholic yankee from Pennsylvania won Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and will probably win Louisiana. Even with Gingrich in the race, Santorum beat Romney. He was no spoiler. Gingrich’s final act could be king maker by getting out and endorsing, but pride cometh before the fall. Gingrich is in mid fall. What a sad end to a brilliant legacy. But his campaign is over. All we need is Haley Joel Osment and M. Night Shyamalan to point out to him he is dead.

 

Santorum won the states. It was a huge victory. But even he is not closing the deal. The striking thing about the exits, which over all captured the race fairly well, is that Santorum’s voters made up their mind in the last few weeks. In other words, Santorum’s voters made up their minds as Romney was winning Arizona, Michigan, and Ohio. Santorum’s vote is not about Santorum so much as it is about stopping Romney. He needs to bring those voters fully on board and give them a reason to vote for Santorum. He is on the verge of doing so.

 

Were I Mitt Romney I’d be firing staff. It’s almost like God himself is toying with Romney. Maybe it is because the Romney camp says it would take an Act of God for Santorum or Gingrich to win. God seems like he wants to make it happen.

 

I don’t think I have seen any political team mishandle and bungle expectations as badly as Team Romney. Every time they let expectations get out of hand they lose. They did it in Iowa. They did it in South Carolina. They did it in Tennessee. They did it in Mississippi. Hell, they did it in Michigan where Romney did win, but by less than three percent.

 

No doubt buoyed by exit polling yesterday, the Romney campaign made sure everyone knew they could seriously win Mississippi. By 8pm, Eric Fehrnstrom was on CNN telling Anderson Cooper that no one really thought Romney would win Alabama or Mississippi. I couldn’t help but laugh in the background.

 

In five years of campaigning it is stunning to me that the Romney camp still has no clue how to play the expectations game. It is increasingly clear it is not a well run campaign, Mitt Romney is not a good campaigner, but he will still, more likely than not, be the GOP nominee. While all eyes were focused on Alabama and Mississippi, Romney was doing quite well in Hawaii and American Samoa.

 

Like sterile accountants counting pennies, the Romney camp keeps counting delegates. That can get them to a win, but it will be an uninspiring win. There is little enthusiasm for Romney with the base. In heavily Republican Madison County, MS, voter turn out barely topped 7,000 voters. In 2008, when the GOP contest was done and everyone knew McCain would be the nominee, 10,500 people still turned out to vote for McCain. Yes, more Republicans turned out to vote McCain in 2008 than Romney in 2012. That’s a problem. That’s a lack of enthusiasm.

 

The problem is two fold now. The base doesn’t like Romney, but the base doesn’t really like the other options either. At the same time, the base does not want this primary to end.

 

The roller coaster continues. The one sure thing out of this is that, though Romney is not becoming a better candidate as the primaries continue, Rick Santorum sure is. As for Newt? He is becoming less relevant.

It is time for Newt Gingrich to exit. It is time for Santorum v. Romney and let the chips fall where they may. I still think Romney is the nominee. But I think Santorum vs. Romney one on one gives Romney a run for his money he needs to become a candidate conservatives can potentially rally around.

redstate.com (Erickson)

 

Edited March 14, 2012 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Maybe so, but at 76, Paul is understandably concerned about the future of his movement. Aides say if Paul can’t win the nomination, four legislative priorities would top the Texas Representative’s wish list: deep spending cuts that lead to a balanced budget; the restoration of civil liberties; a commitment to reclaim the legislative branch’s right to declare war, which it abdicated to the executive branch in recent decades; and reforms that shore up the U.S. monetary system, such as an audit of the Federal Reserve or competing-currency legislation. Paul might also be enticed, says campaign chairman Jesse Benton, by the prospect of serving as a presidential adviser, a Cabinet position for someone in his orbit or “perhaps a vice presidency.”

 

Not for himself, but rather his son. Rand Paul, the junior senator from Kentucky and a Tea Party icon, is expected to launch his own White House bid in 2016. Being on the ticket now — or even being mentioned for it — would be a helpful step. Says one Paul adviser: “If you’re talking about putting Rand on the ticket, of course that would be worth delivering our people to Romney.”

 

Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2012/03/14/why-r.../#ixzz1pHr0N2xa

[southsider2k5]

Wow, a Presidential primary commercial in Indiana. You don't see that, like ever.

[cabiness42]

Haven't seen any down here yet, but then only about 30% of this TV market is in Indiana.

[Balta1701]

Wow, a Presidential primary commercial in Indiana. You don't see that, like ever.

I'd assume that's running on Chicago TV though?

[Balta1701]

Gallup poll suggests that if Gingrich were to drop out of the race, it'd probably actually help Romney...Romney and Santorum effectively split his votes, and that pushes Mitt to a solid plurality.

[southsider2k5]

I'd assume that's running on Chicago TV though?

 

Nope. On my local cable network.

[Texsox]

I would love a nice floor fight at the convention. That that would be the a great lesson and theater.

 

[LittleHurt05]

I guess I have to vote for somebody today, but none of these candidates excite me in the least.

[clyons]

I think I'm going to be a total hypocrite, take a page from Rush's "Operation Chaos" playbook, and cast a vote today for Rick Santorum, just to try and keep things interesting.

 

May God have mercy on my soul.

[Y2HH]

I think I'm going to be a total hypocrite, take a page from Rush's "Operation Chaos" playbook, and cast a vote today for Rick Santorum, just to try and keep things interesting.

 

May God have mercy on my soul.

 

Yet another reason why our system is broken. Voters intentionally gaming the system.

[clyons]

Yet another reason why our system is broken. Voters intentionally gaming the system.

 

I'm not gaming the system. I'm operating squarely within its s***ty rules which unfortunately deprive me of voting today for the person I deem best qualified for each office, regardless of party. Furthermore, that "system" entitles all eligible individuals the freedom to cast their vote in secret for whomever they choose, and for any reason.

 

Its really just the closed primary concept that's warped. I live in DuPage, where the Republican primary is tantamount to the general election for virtually every local office, so for my vote to really matter on local issues, I usually take a Republican ballot in most primaries.

 

Personally, I think I'd much prefer a President Romney over a President Santorum, but I'm really no fan of either one. I'd rather see a protacted battle and an eventual floor fight, so that's how I'm voting on that particular race. I've admitted to that being hypocritcal, but I dispute that's its "gaming," which I consider more akin to cheating.

 

Besides, even if broken, it's the best system anyone has come up with so far.

Edited March 20, 2012 by PlaySumFnJurny

[farmteam]

[HuskyCaucasian]

Political commentary aside, this is absolutely one of the best videos I have ever seen composed. EXCELLENT work by the editor!

[Y2HH]

Political commentary aside, this is absolutely one of the best videos I have ever seen composed. EXCELLENT work by the editor!

 

Reminds me of

[Texsox]

I'm not gaming the system. I'm operating squarely within its s***ty rules which unfortunately deprive me of voting today for the person I deem best qualified for each office, regardless of party. Furthermore, that "system" entitles all eligible individuals the freedom to cast their vote in secret for whomever they choose, and for any reason.

 

Its really just the closed primary concept that's warped. I live in DuPage, where the Republican primary is tantamount to the general election for virtually every local office, so for my vote to really matter on local issues, I usually take a Republican ballot in most primaries.

 

Personally, I think I'd much prefer a President Romney over a President Santorum, but I'm really no fan of either one. I'd rather see a protacted battle and an eventual floor fight, so that's how I'm voting on that particular race. I've admitted to that being hypocritcal, but I dispute that's its "gaming," which I consider more akin to cheating.

 

Besides, even if broken, it's the best system anyone has come up with so far.

 

I feel the same way. I know when I am voting here on the border that 90% of my precint will vote for the Dem candidate. If it is a statewide election, that the state will go for Kap's GOP candidate.

[Y2HH]

I feel the same way. I know when I am voting here on the border that 90% of my precint will vote for the Dem candidate. If it is a statewide election, that the state will go for Kap's GOP candidate.

 

It's dishonest and not the reason the system exists...it's an exploit, albeit legal. I find it just another reason why the system is rotten to the core.

[StrangeSox]

Santorum reiterated his anti-science plank today:

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/ri...ence_dogma.html

[Balta1701]

Ann Romney defended her husband’s sense of humor today during a radio interview, explaining that if people think the candidate seems too stiff at times as the host suggested, she thinks “we better unzip him and let the real Mitt Romney out.”

My work here is done.

[CrimsonWeltall]

Santorum reiterated his anti-science plank today:

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/ri...ence_dogma.html

 

This appears to be from 2009.

 

But no doubt he holds the same idiotic views.

 

 

[farmteam]

Apologies if this was posted somewhere else: http://newsone.com/newsone-original/boycew...PJo79p6NWOn2i9g

 

I mean, it certainly sounds like he's about to say it, but my listening was obviously biased by the fact that I had read the article on it first.

[CrimsonWeltall]

Apologies if this was posted somewhere else: http://newsone.com/newsone-original/boycew...PJo79p6NWOn2i9g

 

I mean, it certainly sounds like he's about to say it, but my listening was obviously biased by the fact that I had read the article on it first.

 

The claim seems to be he's putting the suffix -nik (like beatnik or peacenik) on the end of government. "Anti-war government-nik".

 

Never heard that term used before, but it's plausible.

[NorthSideSox72]

The claim seems to be he's putting the suffix -nik (like beatnik or peacenik) on the end of government. "Anti-war government-nik".

 

Never heard that term used before, but it's plausible.

It sure did sound more "nik" than "nig" to me. Was it meant that way, or did he catch himself? Hard to tell.

 

[CrimsonWeltall]

It sure did sound more "nik" than "nig" to me. Was it meant that way, or did he catch himself? Hard to tell.

 

It's pretty difficult to say that word fluidly "governmentnik"...and that did him no favors.

Edited April 3, 2012 by CrimsonWeltall