Republican 2012 Nomination Thread

[Rex Kickass]

The question is, will the Republicans try and buy him on the 9-9-9 plan. If you make it absurd hes probably dead in the water, but if you make it seem at all legitimate, its catchy and in a crowded field its something people will remember.

 

I dont think hed do well in a national election, he is not polished enough. Democrats may be apathetic to a Romney, but Cain is going to rile people up.

 

I think once it's shown that 9-9-9 actually doubles taxes for a family earning 50,000 dollars a year, he'll fade. Although truth be told, he's looking like someone whos running for a cable tv contract rather than President. You might actually want to make appearances in early primary states if you want to be competitive.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think once it's shown that 9-9-9 actually doubles taxes for a family earning 50,000 dollars a year, he'll fade. Although truth be told, he's looking like someone whos running for a cable tv contract rather than President. You might actually want to make appearances in early primary states if you want to be competitive.

Yeah, Cain is just what Perry was a month or two ago - flavor of the month. He's got a lot of flash and dash, and people like the outsider angle... but once they realize how ridiculous his ideas actually are, he'll fade in a hurry.

 

[southsider2k5]

The question is, will the Republicans try and buy him on the 9-9-9 plan. If you make it absurd hes probably dead in the water, but if you make it seem at all legitimate, its catchy and in a crowded field its something people will remember.

 

I dont think hed do well in a national election, he is not polished enough. Democrats may be apathetic to a Romney, but Cain is going to rile people up.

 

That is the reason I will not vote for him. Adding a national sales tax is a horrible idea. It is regressive and it gives the federal government yet another way into your pocket. I'd vote for Romney in a heartbeat over Cain.

[Balta1701]

Mittens took in $14.2 million last quarter. Less than the $17 million Perry took in, but leaving them with similar amounts of cash-on-hand. The big difference there is that Mittens has been in the race for 6 months, meaning he's already spent a good chunk of money on infrastructure in the early states, while some amount of Perry's money will still be going to startup in those areas (assuming he doesn't call it quits).

[CanOfCorn]

Does anyone here think Cain actually has staying power?

 

His plan to change the title to Godfather of the United States won't go over well.

 

 

[mr_genius]

His plan to change the title to Godfather of the United States won't go over well.

 

the best part of the 999 plan

[kapkomet]

Perry needs to get away from debates and get on the stump, that is where he really shines. Plus as soon as the TV ads start in the primary states, he'll rebound.

 

 

 

Oh wait.

 

 

 

Now people see why I think this guy is a f***tard. Because he is.

[Texsox]

Ahh, Kap, how can you not agree that Perry's strength is stump speeches and TV ads? He's avoided debates all these years because he sucks at them. Sanchez crushed him when they got side by side so Perry stopped. Hell he even paled next to Bill White. He gets elected by stumping and media spots.

[Balta1701]

Ahh, Kap, how can you not agree that Perry's strength is stump speeches and TV ads? He's avoided debates all these years because he sucks at them. Sanchez crushed him when they got side by side so Perry stopped. Hell he even paled next to Bill White. He gets elected by stumping and media spots.

Stumping and media spots can only win if you can at least hold your ground in debates and on the talk shows when MTP gives you the "who is the leader of Venezuela" style trick question. So far he has been an utter failure on both. He needs to at least get above cringe-worthy in those cases. Otherwise you'll get the Sarah Palin "I read all the newspapers" treatment.

[Texsox]

It is harder to control his message on the national stage. I'm frankly very surprised he hasn't been better prepared. I hope it is just a matter of him entering late and other candidates having more time to get adjusted, organized, and comfortable.

[Balta1701]

It is harder to control his message on the national stage. I'm frankly very surprised he hasn't been better prepared. I hope it is just a matter of him entering late and other candidates having more time to get adjusted, organized, and comfortable.

"Oh, he's just not ready for prime time" doesn't sound to me like a strong defense. The first ballots are cast in 2.5 months.

[Texsox]

We're a few more months than that away from Super Tuesday. He'll get it together.

[Balta1701]

We're a few more months than that away from Super Tuesday. He'll get it together.

At least in the last election for this party...the race was decided before Super Tuesday.

[kapkomet]

At least in the last election for this party...the race was decided before Super Tuesday.

 

 

The way the media works, if you don't "win" in the first 3 stops, you're done.

 

That's why Mittens is going to win, because the media wants him to. They know damn well that Mittens is Obama Lite with an ® behind his name and they are ready to pounce his ass into oblivion. Sure, he's "great" now for the GOP, but they will absolutely flame his ass to a crispy critter come the general.

 

Hey Mittens, why is Obamacare exactly the same as Mittencare with three zeros added to the end? He can't separate himself from that, so that issue is right off of the table, and that's why the media loves the guy right now.

Edited October 16, 2011 by kapkomet

[NorthSideSox72]

The way the media works, if you don't "win" in the first 3 stops, you're done.

 

That's why Mittens is going to win, because the media wants him to. They know damn well that Mittens is Obama Lite with an ® behind his name and they are ready to pounce his ass into oblivion. Sure, he's "great" now for the GOP, but they will absolutely flame his ass to a crispy critter come the general.

Hey Mittens, why is Obamacare exactly the same as Mittencare with three zeros added to the end? He can't separate himself from that, so that issue is right off of the table, and that's why the media loves the guy right now.

The bolded is the opposite of reality. The GOP core doesn't like him exactly because he's more moderate than they'd like, but that will play much better in the general than the primaries. Romney has a much better shot against Obama than Perry, or Cain. So following your theory that the media wants Romney, it follows that the media wants Obama out.

 

[Balta1701]

The way the media works, if you don't "win" in the first 3 stops, you're done.

I'd like to disagree with this, but I think the best evidence for why I can't is that after the first 3-4 states last time, Nate Silver was able to take demographic voting patterns and predict the outcome of the other 47 Democratic primaries. There was that infamous 6 week campaign gap before Pennsylvania, the infamous "bitter cling to guns" and "Obama can't bowl" controversies, and despite all that campaigning, the demographics-based predictions were right on even in that state.

[kapkomet]

The bolded is the opposite of reality. The GOP core doesn't like him exactly because he's more moderate than they'd like, but that will play much better in the general than the primaries. Romney has a much better shot against Obama than Perry, or Cain. So following your theory that the media wants Romney, it follows that the media wants Obama out.

 

 

The media is trying like hell to nominate someone they feel is a lesser threat to Obama. Romney is that candidate. He's a pus.....hover.

 

And Tex, the major problem with Perry is his arrogance. He thought he could walk right in and win this thing. He sticks out his chest and screams "TEXAS!!!!!!!" and thinks everyone should vote for him. Guess what? No one gives a s*** about what he can do for Texas, they care about what he can do for our country. Maybe when he gets a little more humility (never) he would have a chance.

[Balta1701]

The media is trying like hell to nominate someone they feel is a lesser threat to Obama. Romney is that candidate. He's a pus.....hover.

Could you fill in who out of this set you think is the large threat to Obama that the media is trying to shut down?

[Texsox]

The media is trying like hell to nominate someone they feel is a lesser threat to Obama. Romney is that candidate. He's a pus.....hover.

 

And Tex, the major problem with Perry is his arrogance. He thought he could walk right in and win this thing. He sticks out his chest and screams "TEXAS!!!!!!!" and thinks everyone should vote for him. Guess what? No one gives a s*** about what he can do for Texas, they care about what he can do for our country. Maybe when he gets a little more humility (never) he would have a chance.

 

I would hope that every candidate thinks that or else they are wasting tens of millions of dollars.

[Balta1701]

I would hope that every candidate thinks that or else they are wasting tens of millions of dollars.

I think only 3 guys in this race have raised well above $10 million so far and one does have no chance.

[Balta1701]

 

/thread.

[NorthSideSox72]

I've been saying for a while now, to the disagreement of almost everyone here, that the general election boils down to this... the GOP doesn't need to worry about their base, because their base is far more focused on getting Obama out, than on who they vote in. All they have to focus on in the general is getting some support among swing/moderate voters. Obama's camp, on the other hand, while also needing to get this middle of the road voters, has a second and larger problem - the base is unhappy and may not show up.

 

You want proof? CNN's latest poll has the proof right there. Consider these numbers... Only 30% of GOP respondents have settled on a candidate. But 65% of them are very enthusiastic about supporting their candidate. What does that tell you? Furthermore, only about 35% of Dem voters are energized for the upcoming election.

 

Everyone likes to talk about the GOP base coming out. To me, that is a complete non-issue for this cycle. The keys are two: moderate voters (which way they go), and the Dem base. That is the election right there.

 

[Texsox]

I've been saying for a while now, to the disagreement of almost everyone here, that the general election boils down to this... the GOP doesn't need to worry about their base, because their base is far more focused on getting Obama out, than on who they vote in. All they have to focus on in the general is getting some support among swing/moderate voters. Obama's camp, on the other hand, while also needing to get this middle of the road voters, has a second and larger problem - the base is unhappy and may not show up.

 

You want proof? CNN's latest poll has the proof right there. Consider these numbers... Only 30% of GOP respondents have settled on a candidate. But 65% of them are very enthusiastic about supporting their candidate. What does that tell you? Furthermore, only about 35% of Dem voters are energized for the upcoming election.

 

Everyone likes to talk about the GOP base coming out. To me, that is a complete non-issue for this cycle. The keys are two: moderate voters (which way they go), and the Dem base. That is the election right there.

 

I agree. I frankly don't see how Obama gets reelected.

[Texsox]

You gotta raise money to win and Perry jumped out to a nice lead http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/p...-third-quarter/

 

When candidates file to run for a federal office, they are required to submit regular campaign finance reports to the Federal Election Commission. On Sept. 30, the third quarter came to a close, and Oct. 15 was the deadline to file with the FEC.

 

Gov. Rick Perry joined the presidential race on Aug. 13, shaking up the GOP pool of candidates. According to a Tribune analysis of third quarter reports, Perry had no problem scaling his formidable fundraising abilities to the national level. Although Perry had less time to rally supporters in the third quarter (candidates are not allowed to raise money until they file with the FEC, meaning Perry could not start until mid-August), Perry outraised all of the other Republican candidates, collecting $17.2 million in the months of August and September.

 

Nifty little graphic to see where it is from.

[Balta1701]

Perry pulled in $17 million in Q3. This is a solid number, similar to what Romney pulled in in Q1 when he announced. I haven't seen a Q3 number for Mittens yet.

 

 

Mittens took in $14.2 million last quarter. Less than the $17 million Perry took in, but leaving them with similar amounts of cash-on-hand. The big difference there is that Mittens has been in the race for 6 months, meaning he's already spent a good chunk of money on infrastructure in the early states, while some amount of Perry's money will still be going to startup in those areas (assuming he doesn't call it quits).

 

 

You gotta raise money to win and Perry jumped out to a nice lead http://www.texastribune.org/library/data/p...-third-quarter/

 

 

 

Nifty little graphic to see where it is from.

Your post is as out of date as the Perry boomlet.