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Republican 2012 Nomination Thread


Texsox

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http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/12/...ngrich-tax-plan

the Tax Policy Center has completed a preliminary analysis of Newt Gingrich's tax plan. You will be entirely non-shocked to learn that it's pretty much the same as every other Republican tax plan: it offers only modest cuts for poor and middle-class taxpayers but gigantic cuts for the well-off and the rich. In order to make sure that not a single person would even theoretically pay higher taxes under his plan, Newt uses the dodge pioneered by Rick Perry that allows taxpayers to choose between the current tax code and the Gingrich plan. However, he goes Perry one better by being even more brazenly pro-millionaire with an effective rate of 11.2% for anyone earning more than a million dollars per year.1 Take that, cowboy!

 

According to TPC, the Gingrich plan would lower federal tax revenue by $1.28 trillion in 2015 compared with current law, roughly a 35 percent cut in total projected revenue. I assume that Gingrich's plan to make up for this loss involves some handwaving about economic growth, but I don't have the energy to try and find the official explanation.

 

blog_gingrich_tax_plan_0.jpg

 

Why are any of these plans taken seriously?

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 13, 2011 -> 02:13 PM)
Donald Trump has pulled out of moderating a GOP debate.

LOL, I seriously wonder if he is actually that deluded to think that's why candidates were wary of him. Or that his words actually caused Romney to fall back. Either he actually does - in which case he is a sad, pathetic little man... or he doesn't and he's just trying to turn this election into a cesspool - in which case, he is a sad, pathetic little man.

 

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Public Policy Polling was out in Iowa over the last 3 days, after showing the Newt Surge like everyone else in their previous poll. This one however finds that Newt's lead has narrowed considerably, and he now leads Ron Paul 22-21, effectively tied within the margin of error. Mittens is still sitting back at 16%. As far as I know, this is the first poll out there showing Newt's rise starting to deflate.

 

The fall in Newt's numbers is correlated with a 10 point decrease in his favorability amongst Republican voters, while Ron Paul saw a similar magnitude spike in his favorability numbers.

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Quasi-GOP Pollster Rassmussen is now the 2nd pollster out with a poll in Iowa showing that the focus of the campaign on Newt over the last few weeks has taken its toll on him. Their last poll of Iowa in November showed Newt with a 13 point lead, this poll shows Newt's support Plummetting (32% to 20%) and Mittens taking a 3 point lead, with Newt's former support spreading out between Perry, Huntsmann, and Bachmann.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 13, 2011 -> 05:13 PM)
SS, since there's no one really discussing the plan here right now, any chance you'd think that the multiple posts on the topic would fit better in the Dem thread?

here I was thinking Newt was a Rebublican 2012 Nominee...

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Dec 15, 2011 -> 11:21 AM)
Yeah things pointing out the absurdity of what seems like every "fiscal conservative" GOP candidates' tax plans seem fair game for this thread but feel free to move it.

We're about 3 weeks away from being votes cast. You already pointed out the plan and the absurdity in it, it was the extra post with the extra visual effect that seems unnecessary unless someone steps forward to defend the plan.

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The Intrade betting on the nomination markets have Newt absolutely plummeting today. The going rate was at 40% on Newt a few days ago and it's dropped to 15% today.

 

One version of a polltracker also shows him having peaked and begun a fairly steep free-fall in polling data, although that isn't currently matched by the RealClearPolitics.com version.

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Romney or bust. That's EVERYONE's mentality, including Obama's. They want him so bad they can taste it (or plant articles out there to have everyone attacked outside of Mittens). Why? Because health care is 100% off the table if Mittens is the nominee, and they can ward off the attack from the flank on that issue alone.

 

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QUOTE (kapkomet @ Dec 15, 2011 -> 03:24 PM)
Romney or bust. That's EVERYONE's mentality, including Obama's. They want him so bad they can taste it (or plant articles out there to have everyone attacked outside of Mittens). Why? Because health care is 100% off the table if Mittens is the nominee, and they can ward off the attack from the flank on that issue alone.

Then why has the Obama administration been spending money and effort attacking Romney for months?

 

It sure seems to me that the Obama admin. would love to face anyone but Mittens.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2011 -> 02:28 PM)
Then why has the Obama administration been spending money and effort attacking Romney for months?

 

It sure seems to me that the Obama admin. would love to face anyone but Mittens.

 

 

Because they know he's the nominee, and so does everyone else.

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QUOTE (kapkomet @ Dec 15, 2011 -> 03:19 PM)
Because they know he's the nominee, and so does everyone else.

 

That's true, but I'm sure Obama would much rather have run against Cain or Perry or Bachmann. On paper Huntsman presents a stronger challenge than Romney, but I don't see any of the other candidates really offering a strong shot at Obama. Which is why I doubt that Romney is who Obama prefers out of this crop.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Dec 15, 2011 -> 03:33 PM)
That's true, but I'm sure Obama would much rather have run against Cain or Perry or Bachmann. On paper Huntsman presents a stronger challenge than Romney, but I don't see any of the other candidates really offering a strong shot at Obama. Which is why I doubt that Romney is who Obama prefers out of this crop.

Agreed. ObamaCo would much rather any of the significant candidates over Romney, who polls better against Obama than anyone else.

 

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How many times have you voted for him? You sound like White, Sanchez, and the nine other candidates that have lost to him. Never underestimate a guy who has been elected that many times. He is undefeated in elections.

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