Republican 2012 Nomination Thread

[Reddy]

As opposed to your assumption that I am Republican so I don't care about anyone but white people? You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.

go check with the higher ups in your party... i think you've been had.

[Reddy]

Illinois, Michigan, California.

Illinois seems good on paper. Racial breakdown the same as the US, but at the end of the day, Illinois is probably too corrupt. See, in Iowa there's no CENTER of the state. Des Moines? Iowa City? Cedar Rapids? Yeah those are political POWERHOUSES... not... There's a much lower chance of manipulation as opposed to, lets face it, Chicago and Illinois as a whole.

 

Michigan is similar to Iowa in demographics and lacks the latino population, if race is now the concern. I could reasonably get behind this one.

 

California is just a messed up state all around.

 

 

[bmags]

Oh please, what an outrageous accusation.

[southsider2k5]

give me an example, son. don't just throw s*** at a wall.

 

Examples of states more diverse than Iowa, just in the general part of the country.

 

Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Colorado, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Tennessee for starters.

 

About the only states equal or less diverse are the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana.

[southsider2k5]

go check with the higher ups in your party... i think you've been had.

 

Keep lapping up the propaganda and stereotypes.

[StrangeSox]

The Santorum surge is because all the people that were voting for Bachman then Perry then Cain then Gingrich are just now going to Santorum. Listen, it doesn't help that the crop of candidates is horrible. The voters who didn't want Romney or Paul last time STILL DON'T, there just isn't a viable alternative so they're jumping from ship to ship. Not all that irrational if you don't support one of the two candidates who you saw last time.

 

And by DEFAULT Iowans are more informed of the candidates views because they actually get to talk to them face to face.

 

While living in Iowa (moved to Chicago in 05) I met and spoke to:

 

Bob Graham

Dick Gephardt - spoke at my house

John Kerry

John Edwards - spoke at my house

Dennis Kucinich

 

how many of those have you had a conversation with? I know this is obviously a biproduct of BEING first, but it's also just the reality now.

 

Briefly speaking to a candidate in person doesn't actually make you more informed than someone with an internet connection.

[Reddy]

Briefly speaking to a candidate in person doesn't actually make you more informed than someone with an internet connection.

Do you think the average person really does extensive internet research?

[Reddy]

Examples of states more diverse than Iowa, just in the general part of the country.

 

Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Colorado, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Tennessee for starters.

 

About the only states equal or less diverse are the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana.

And Iowa is the most moderate of all those states. And way to skew the question. Im not convinced i asked which states were more racially diverse.

[southsider2k5]

And Iowa is the most moderate of all those states. And way to skew the question. Im not convinced i asked which states were more racially diverse.

 

That would the idea of a diverse sample of all Americans. Polling one race isn't exactly representative of the US.

[Balta1701]

And Iowa is the most moderate of all those states. And way to skew the question. Im not convinced i asked which states were more racially diverse.

Why is "Moderate" good here? That doesn't mean the voters are somehow better, that just means there's sometimes an approximately equal group between different groups which vote in certain ways in certain elections.

 

That of course can change significantly depending on the year, candidates, economic situation, etc.

[southsider2k5]

Briefly speaking to a candidate in person doesn't actually make you more informed than someone with an internet connection.

 

If anything it does more harm than good. You're vote becomes based more on irrelevant stuff like a smile, a quick soundbyte, or a handshake versus their actual positions.

[Reddy]

If anything it does more harm than good. You're vote becomes based more on irrelevant stuff like a smile, a quick soundbyte, or a handshake versus their actual positions.

You dont live in iowa and havent experienced a caucus correct? So tell me how you know so much. Ive been there, and iowans ask questions and want answers - not bs. Remember earlier in the thread when iowans were personified as holier than thou? Well maybe they do act that way, but what that means is we want actual answers because in this state you CANT get away with a handshake and a smile. Ask Rick Perry.

[southsider2k5]

You dont live in iowa and havent experienced a caucus correct? So tell me how you know so much. Ive been there, and iowans ask questions and want answers - not bs. Remember earlier in the thread when iowans were personified as holier than thou? Well maybe they do act that way, but what that means is we want actual answers because in this state you CANT get away with a handshake and a smile. Ask Rick Perry.

 

I'd say it is more like being paranoid about the only thing that keeps the state even somewhat politically relevant. That front has already started to fall in with candidates walking away from ethanol publicly ahead of the elections.

[Balta1701]

You dont live in iowa and havent experienced a caucus correct? So tell me how you know so much. Ive been there, and iowans ask questions and want answers - not bs. Remember earlier in the thread when iowans were personified as holier than thou? Well maybe they do act that way, but what that means is we want actual answers because in this state you CANT get away with a handshake and a smile. Ask Rick Perry.

Rick Perry's campaign imploded because of his terrible debate performances, not because of anything silly he did in Iowa. Iowa doesn't have some monopoly on "Having candidate debates".

[Reddy]

Rick Perry's campaign imploded because of his terrible debate performances, not because of anything silly he did in Iowa. Iowa doesn't have some monopoly on "Having candidate debates".

Im not suggesting otherwise, just that he thought he could get away with being charming and likeable above all else.

[Balta1701]

Im not suggesting otherwise, just that he thought he could get away with being charming and likeable above all else.

So in other words, retail campaigning of the sort that you tell us is important in Iowa would work well for Rick Perry, but his campaign imploded because of his inability to cut it on a national stage.

 

One might conclude from this that the sort of retail campaigning done in Iowa is effectively worthless in evaluating a candidate's ability to succeed on a national stage, and is in fact counterproductive. Instead, a candidate should face much larger, national level tests during the primary phase, since that is the type of test that will be required in the general election.

[bmags]

My thoughts exactly.

[Reddy]

So in other words, retail campaigning of the sort that you tell us is important in Iowa would work well for Rick Perry, but his campaign imploded because of his inability to cut it on a national stage.

 

One might conclude from this that the sort of retail campaigning done in Iowa is effectively worthless in evaluating a candidate's ability to succeed on a national stage, and is in fact counterproductive. Instead, a candidate should face much larger, national level tests during the primary phase, since that is the type of test that will be required in the general election.

Wait what? How'd you get that from that? Perry f***ed up debates and his Iowa poll numbers plummeted as well. I'm not saying debates dont matter obviously they do. But I think regardless of the debates he was still just the flavor of the week for a while and when iowans realized he didnt know jack s*** they jumped ship. He tried to win them back with folksiness and radical commercials and iowans didnt bite. Alabamians would have

[Balta1701]

My thoughts exactly.

I actually don't agree with that, and I think there's a role for "retail campaigning" in a campaign...I just think that it's crap that Iowa and New Hampshire are the only ones because of a historical accident in the past 30 years.

[Balta1701]

Wait what? How'd you get that from that? Perry f***ed up debates and his Iowa poll numbers plummeted as well. I'm not saying debates dont matter obviously they do. But I think regardless of the debates he was still just the flavor of the week for a while and when iowans realized he didnt know jack s*** they jumped ship. He tried to win them back with folksiness and radical commercials and iowans didnt bite. Alabamians would have

But he also collapsed nationally at the same time. Thus, you've perfectly demonstrated how Iowa has absolutely no special predictive ability compared to the rest of the country.

[Balta1701]

And if Ron Paul and Rick Santorum score solid finishes next week, we can go one step further and say that Iowa not only has no special predictive ability compared to the rest of the country, but in fact they're such an unrepresentative minority that they are willing and able to select completely unqualified candidates in their caucuses.

[southsider2k5]

Wait what? How'd you get that from that? Perry f***ed up debates and his Iowa poll numbers plummeted as well. I'm not saying debates dont matter obviously they do. But I think regardless of the debates he was still just the flavor of the week for a while and when iowans realized he didnt know jack s*** they jumped ship. He tried to win them back with folksiness and radical commercials and iowans didnt bite. Alabamians would have

 

In other words his time in Iowa had nothing to do with his poll numbers dropping, it happened long before that point. Again, Iowa was irrelevant here.

[Reddy]

In other words his time in Iowa had nothing to do with his poll numbers dropping, it happened long before that point. Again, Iowa was irrelevant here.

Not true. The question is would they have dropped as dramatically elsewhere? We cant say. But we also cant have some sort of random rotating system where one year mississippi or alabama is first.

[Balta1701]

But we also cant have some sort of random rotating system where one year mississippi or alabama is first.

Why?

[southsider2k5]

Not true. The question is would they have dropped as dramatically elsewhere? We cant say. But we also cant have some sort of random rotating system where one year mississippi or alabama is first.

 

He dropped dramatically all over the country. We can say that for 100%. Its not like he stuck around in some minority filled state or something that proves that all of the white people of Iowa are somehow a better judge of character. Perry's poll numbers in Iowa did the exact same thing as they did in the rest of the country. He had a big explosion of popularity, and they faded quickly. Nothing in Iowa was any different with all of those "well informed moderates".