Republican 2012 Nomination Thread

[Balta1701]

The question is would they have dropped as dramatically elsewhere? We cant say.

Actually, we can say quite well, by comparing national polls with polls of Iowa, which basically show the exact same thing. Mittens hanging at about 20% throughout the campaign. Bachmann first getting a small bump, then a large Perry bump lasting a month or two, then the Cain bump (which has been filtered out by the fact he dropped out), then the Gingrich bump. And in fact, they're very close to in sync, suggesting strongly that Iowa has done nothing but follow the national trend.

[StrangeSox]

Do you think the average person really does extensive internet research?

I do not think the average person whose main political knowledge comes from running into a candidate at a diner or attending a single meeting or gathering can be considered 'informed'

[StrangeSox]

Keep in mind that the caucuses are party-specific, so an "average" Iowan could hypothetically be composed of equal parts radical conservative and radical liberal that 'balance' out to a 'moderate' Iowan who somehow represents a cross-section of America while being predominately white and having no large urban centers and an agriculture-heavy economy.

[Reddy]

Ok ima take a break cuz typing on a phone is hard but gimme better options than iowa first and i'll try and poke holes in 'em later

[bmags]

Well first, the idea that Illinois couldn't have a primary because of legitimacy.

[southsider2k5]

Ok ima take a break cuz typing on a phone is hard but gimme better options than iowa first and i'll try and poke holes in 'em later

 

What more do you need than what you have already seen, and haven't disproven?

 

-Iowa is extremely racially homogenous when compared to the rest of the country.

-Iowa has no urban presence, and no level of real poverty compared to the rest of the nation.

-Iowa is extremely farm based when compared to the rest of the country

-Iowa has shown no difference from national polls during the electoral cycle

 

 

[Balta1701]

Ok ima take a break cuz typing on a phone is hard but gimme better options than iowa first and i'll try and poke holes in 'em later

No, this is wrong. You don't just get to poke holes in other states, you have to demonstrate why a certain state is always 100% the best...and you have to do so without alluding to anything like "better-informed voters", because that is the sort of thing which is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

You can make effectively the same case for Iowa that you could make for any small state. There's no logical reason why your vote in Iowa should count more than mine.

 

If "1 state" always needs to lead off, then it should rotate.

[bmags]

Something more than kitsch.

[jasonxctf]

Ok ima take a break cuz typing on a phone is hard but gimme better options than iowa first and i'll try and poke holes in 'em later

 

Let's make them actual swing states then. In the past 6 presidential elections, 5 of the times they went Democratic.

 

1. Colorado

2. Virginia

3. North Carolina

4. Florida

5. Ohio

 

Now, I know that the other reason why Iowa is so popular, is that its cheap advertising. The TV and Newspaper ad buys are cheaper in say, Des Moines then they would be in LA, New York, Chicago, Miami, etc. So the candidates without as much $ in the bank, can still buy ad space there. However, in todays new media age, I don't think that matters as much as it did say 20 years ago.

[MexSoxFan#1]

As a Democrat, I'm having fun watching this GOP circus.

[Balta1701]

Now, I know that the other reason why Iowa is so popular, is that its cheap advertising. The TV and Newspaper ad buys are cheaper in say, Des Moines then they would be in LA, New York, Chicago, Miami, etc. So the candidates without as much $ in the bank, can still buy ad space there. However, in todays new media age, I don't think that matters as much as it did say 20 years ago.

Of course, there's a real downside here also...if you have a candidate who is struggling with fundraising who wins Iowa and uses that as a key path to a nomination...you still have a candidate who struggled with fundraising, and that's a bad thing for any party right now, since money is everything.

[southsider2k5]

Of course, there's a real downside here also...if you have a candidate who is struggling with fundraising who wins Iowa and uses that as a key path to a nomination...you still have a candidate who struggled with fundraising, and that's a bad thing for any party right now, since money is everything.

 

Eh, the parties unite behind their candidates when it becomes obvious. When the choice is not an ideal candidate versus the party candidate, the coffers open up.

[Balta1701]

Eh, the parties unite behind their candidates when it becomes obvious. When the choice is not an ideal candidate versus the party candidate, the coffers open up.

I think the Obama 2008 campaign made pretty clear how "The coffers open up" can be different for one candidate versus another. The Clinton campaign wouldn't have been able to be anywhere near his online fundraising levels.

[southsider2k5]

I think the Obama 2008 campaign made pretty clear how "The coffers open up" can be different for one candidate versus another. The Clinton campaign wouldn't have been able to be anywhere near his online fundraising levels.

 

A lot has changed in 4 years.

[Balta1701]

A lot has changed in 4 years.

Even though the rise of the Super-PAC has clearly made a huge difference in Iowa, the one thing it really hasn't done is produce anything close to the level of spending that the Obama/Clinton/serial adulterer race did in Iowa in 08.

[southsider2k5]

Even though the rise of the Super-PAC has clearly made a huge difference in Iowa, the one thing it really hasn't done is produce anything close to the level of spending that the Obama/Clinton/serial adulterer race did in Iowa in 08.

 

The race also hasn't narrowed down at all.

[Balta1701]

The Rick Perry campaign appears to have entered the blame game-pointing fingers-CYA phase.

“There has never been a more ineptly orchestrated, just unbelievably subpar campaign for president of the United States than this one,” said a senior Perry adviser.

 

Perry’s steep plunge from front-runner to butt of jokes was chiefly the result of his own embarrassing verbal stumbles, most notably his insta-classic “oops” moment when he couldn’t recall the names of the cabinet departments he wants to eliminate.

 

Yet the view of the outsiders who took over Perry’s campaign is that the candidate was set up for failure by an insular group led by Dave Carney, the governor’s longtime political guru, which thought they could run a presidential campaign like a larger version of a gubernatorial race and didn’t take the basic steps needed to professionalize the operation until the candidate already was sinking.

 

“They put the campaign together like all the other Perry campaigns: raise a bunch of money, don’t worry about the [media coverage], don’t worry about debates and buy the race on TV,” said a top Perry official. “You have to be a total rube to think a race for president is the same as a race for governor.”

 

Because Perry had never been defeated in his career in state politics — and came from behind to crush Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in last year’s Texas gubernatorial primary — his Texas operation projected an air of supreme self-assurance and indifference to outside advice.

 

Carney, a longtime GOP strategist who worked for Bush 41’s presidential campaigns, declined to comment for this story.

 

“I don’t think so,” he said in response to an email asking to get his side. “Not much good can come from process stories like this.”

 

In a blistering indictment, sources close to the operation describe a new team that was stunned to arrive in October and find a campaign that wasn’t executing the most rudimentary elements of a modern presidential campaign: no polling or focus groups, no opposition research book on their own candidate to prepare for attacks and debate prep sessions that were barely worth the name.

[Balta1701]

Des Moines register poll still shows Mittens and Hates-everyone out in front, but appears to catch a Santorum Surge in the past day or two.

Santorum, who has been largely invisible in the polls throughout the campaign season, is now beating the other evangelical choices and has a clear shot at victory Tuesday night.

 

But political analysts note there’s little time for Santorum to cash in and regroup before New Hampshire, where voters weigh in nine days from now, while Romney is positioned to replicate what he’s done in Iowa in all the early states.

 

In four days of polling, Romney leads at 24 percent, Paul has 22 percent and Rick Santorum, 15 percent.

 

But if the final two days of polling stand alone, the order reshuffles: Santorum elbows out Paul for second.

 

“Few saw this bombshell coming,” GOP strategist David Polyansky said. “In an already unpredictable race this is another stunning turn of political fortune.”

 

What makes Santorum’s growth spurt particularly striking is his last-second rise: He averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.

[mr_genius]

Any Ron Paul supporters here?

[mr_genius]

Des Moines register poll still shows Mittens and Hates-everyone out in front, but appears to catch a Santorum Surge in the past day or two.

 

who?

[Balta1701]

who?

I'm trying out "Hates-everyone" as a nickname for Paul. Seems to reflect his writings well.

[mr_genius]

I'm trying out "Hates-everyone" as a nickname for Paul.

 

ah i see. but isn't every Republican just a mean old racist that hates everyone?

[Balta1701]

ah i see. but isn't every Republican just a mean old racist that hates everyone?

Ron Paul's writings make Santorum look fuzzy and cuddly.

 

Oh,a nd conveniently, I don't need a nickname for Santorum.

[mr_genius]

Ron Paul's writings make Santorum look fuzzy and cuddly.

 

Oh,a nd conveniently, I don't need a nickname for Santorum.

 

is the Santorum thing something you guys just came up with? Seems like something Democrats would be really interested in.

[Balta1701]

is the Santorum thing something you guys just came up with? Seems like something Democrats would be really interested in.

No, that one has been out there for nearly a decade. Dan Savage, sex columnist/homosexual, came up with that one as a humerous way of responding to Santorum's hate towards the gays, and it has stuck.