2010 PECOTA

[RockRaines]

I wonder what Damon adds to those projections....

[Balta1701]

Looks stronger to me, but at least AS good. You think its worse by 80 runs? Plus the fact that the starting staff is better, the bullpen would have to be worse by like 100 runs or more.

And the defense is probably better too, by swapping JD for Pierre and Fields for Teahen and Wise for Rios.

[2nd_city_saint787]

By whom?

 

 

 

Pierre is our worst hitter, as of now.

 

 

 

It has the potential to be, just as it has the potential to be one of the best in the league. I'd say it's less likely that they would be 2nd worst than one of the best, but with all the question marks we have, it's hard for me to really say.

 

Basically agreed with the rest of your post.

 

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball...ge=jeterramirez

[witesoxfan]

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball...ge=jeterramirez

 

That's fantasy. Karabell was talking about homers and RBI and SB and runs and whatever else. He wasn't actually talking about Alexei Ramirez being better than Derek Jeter.

[southsider2k5]

There is no way the division is won with 82 games.

[Balta1701]

There is no way the division is won with 82 games.

"2006 NL Central".

 

Anyway, yeah, you're right.

[chunk23]

Looks stronger to me, but at least AS good. You think its worse by 80 runs? Plus the fact that the starting staff is better, the bullpen would have to be worse by like 100 runs or more.

 

It's possible, if Buerhle looks as bad as he did toward the end of the season, Garcia/Hudson don't work out, and our bullpen is, as mentioned, not necessarily as good as last year, I guess with the loss of Dotel and Carrasco.

 

hey dont worry..

 

they've got the Yanks finishing 3rd

the Angels having the 3rd worst record in the AL

only 3 teams winning 90 games, and all of them reside in the AL East. (after 7 teams had 90+ wins in 2009)

Oakland winning the AL West

 

I'd have the Mariners winning the West, but the Angels have lost a lot of talent, doesn't have much of a rotation anymore, and all the other divisional teams have certainly improved.

[3E8]

Looks stronger to me, but at least AS good. You think its worse by 80 runs? Plus the fact that the starting staff is better, the bullpen would have to be worse by like 100 runs or more.

Not to mention our defense is better

[Vance Law]

That's fantasy. Karabell was talking about homers and RBI and SB and runs and whatever else. He wasn't actually talking about Alexei Ramirez being better than Derek Jeter.

 

But also in reality, the argument could be made. And the fantasy numbers don't take into account defense, where Jeter is, by many, considered the worst shortstop in baseball. In 2008, you can argue Alexei was the better player (obviously not last year). Who knows which Alexei we will get in 2010.

[Leonard Zelig]

I wonder what Damon adds to those projections....

 

Why, have you heard something?

[ThunderBolt]

We just need one shot in the arm, and we've got this division. Hopefully, we don't rest on our laurels. I have a feeling we won't.

[Steve9347]

If you had predicted 81-81 for every team last season, you would have been off by an average of 9.5 wins per team. One game worse than this stupid system did.

[joeynach]

PETCOA always under projects stats and win totals. I love it when they project Howard and Puljos to have like 36 HR. I gaurantee whoever wins this division wins at least 88 games, not 82 like their projections.

[SoxAce]

Weaker bullpen?

 

I have to wonder about the bullpen myself as well depending on Putz' health and Pena pitching to his potential (though I like his arm) not to mention second half Linebrink. And of course theres Randy Williams..... Thornton and even Bobby will be fine.

 

There is no way the division is won with 82 games.

 

Agreed. But ya.. this division is that bad.

[Balta1701]

Agreed. But ya.. this division is that bad.

The issue is...are the lower-level teams in the other divisions good enough to pile up the wins against the upper level teams in the Central? That's what you need to win the division with a win total that low.

[NorthSideSox72]

It's possible, if Buerhle looks as bad as he did toward the end of the season, Garcia/Hudson don't work out, and our bullpen is, as mentioned, not necessarily as good as last year, I guess with the loss of Dotel and Carrasco.

Of course its POSSIBLE the team will give up 80 more runs than last year - but the projections should be what is most likely. You think its most likely that this pitching staff is 80 runs (half a run per game) worse than last year's Opening Day roster? I think the starting staff is better, the bullpen is likely to be similar, and the defense will probably be a little better. Giving up 80 more runs would require all that you mentioned bad to happen, and then some.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Of course its POSSIBLE the team will give up 80 more runs than last year - but the projections should be what is most likely. You think its most likely that this pitching staff is 80 runs (half a run per game) worse than last year's Opening Day roster? I think the starting staff is better, the bullpen is likely to be similar, and the defense will probably be a little better. Giving up 80 more runs would require all that you mentioned bad to happen, and then some.

Does anyone know what PECOTA projected about runs we'd give up last year?

[southsider2k5]

I have to wonder about the bullpen myself as well depending on Putz' health and Pena pitching to his potential (though I like his arm) not to mention second half Linebrink. And of course theres Randy Williams..... Thornton and even Bobby will be fine.

 

 

 

Agreed. But ya.. this division is that bad.

 

Still, someone will get hot and leak a bit away from the division.

[dyuen]

Looks stronger to me, but at least AS good. You think its worse by 80 runs? Plus the fact that the starting staff is better, the bullpen would have to be worse by like 100 runs or more.

I agree, I dont see how we let up 80 more runs. 100 more runs from a pen that wasn't all that good to begin with is crazy. Plus, the defense should be better.

[dyuen]

Really????? I know our offense isnt great but i thought it was at least middle of the pack and getting a solid bopper DH would put us above middle of the pack.

 

 

I mean I know there are a lot of what ifs but the team has a ton of potential and maybe its because im a sox fan but i think every offensive player on the field has the potential to be an all star except Teahen who is a great hitter in his own and i dont think a lot of people realize that because hes coming from the royals.

 

 

-Last year Lexi was bein talked about as bein a better offensive player than Derek Jeter.

-CQ is healthy, last time he was healthy he was puttin up MVP numbers

-If Rios fails like he did the end of last year i will be genuinely shocked, the guy was an all star in 07. I find it hard to believe a guy who hit over .290/.337/.798 the previous 3 years before last and knocked in at least 71 the last 4 is a fluke and is gonna drop off at age 29.

-we all know Beckham is the future and the future started last year, i expect him to put up alex rios type numbers

-We're all griping about paying Pierre so much when we could have gotten Pods back cheaper and i agree but when you look past finances Pierre is a better option than Pods IMO. Neither are great but both will you what you want on the base paths and its safe to say Pierre is better at causing havoc there.

-AJ is one of the best hitting catchers

-PK is still good for 25+ HR and 80 RBI

-Teahan is wayyyy underrated around here, seems to me like hes being viewed as the worst starter (aside from dh) on the team and having a guy that has played on a horrible team the last couple years which leads me to believe his output will be greater over here. I'll take .270/.330 15 HR 60 RBI out of our "worst hitter" any day of the week.

-The DH position as it stands i believe will be 2 different monsters, Kotsay is a a really good hitter against RHP and when hes in there he doesnt give you the normal DH masher but he does give you a good hitter who will get on base and score runs, Jones on the other hand i believe still gives you that all or nothing DH i still believe hes got a ton of pop in his bat and his 17 bombs in 82 games last season seem to agree with me.

 

 

Im not saying its a great offense but its def not the 2nd worst in the league.

 

Sorry but I think you are way off here.

1) We don't have a solid bopper DH so you can't factor that into the equation.

2) Lexi is nowhere close to the offensive player Jeter is, that is really a ridiculous statement.

3) CQ did have a great 2008. Let's hope he can stay healthy.

4) Rios has been discussed on this board a ton and I can see both sides of the argument.

5) I sure hope Beckham puts up better numbers than Rios.

6) Pierre is fast.

7) There are at least 10 catchers who are better hitters than AJ so I would not consider him one of the best.

8) PK is probably good for that, but thats in the bottom half of first baseman in baseball.

9) Teahan is not underrated at all here. Most people give him the numbers you state.

10) Kotsay has no business being a full time player, much less a DH. He is not a really good hitter against RHP. He has no pop. He is Erstad all over again. Jones hit 17 hrs sure but a 214 average is awful and I don't see how you can be happy with that.

[scenario]

Unless a few players step up and have substantially better than average years we could easily have one of the worst offenses in the league.

 

And this from a fan (me) who usually is accused of wearing rose-colored glasses.

 

It's not that we have bad individual players.... I like most of them... I just wouldn't put them all together as a lineup.

 

There is simply not enough OBP there to sustain any consistency on offense. It's the same mistake the Sox seem to make every year, only this year without the power.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2010 by scenario

[iamshack]

Unless a few players step up and have substantially better than average years we could easily have one of the worst offenses in the league.

 

And this from a fan (me) who usually is accused of wearing rose-colored glasses.

Yeah, that is surprising from you...

 

I think they will though...

 

Think back to past years and what predictions have been prior to the season. Let's face it, there are several guys on this team who are going to perform completely differently than what we will predict them to.

 

I think they will be ok, but I also think we will pay for the mistake we just made in bypassing Thome.

[The Ginger Kid]

i guess someone has to lose so the east can have 3 90 game winners.

[chunk23]

Of course its POSSIBLE the team will give up 80 more runs than last year - but the projections should be what is most likely. You think its most likely that this pitching staff is 80 runs (half a run per game) worse than last year's Opening Day roster? I think the starting staff is better, the bullpen is likely to be similar, and the defense will probably be a little better. Giving up 80 more runs would require all that you mentioned bad to happen, and then some.

 

I don't think it's all that likely, I was just listing some possible ways it could happen. However, if you look across the board, they project a ton of scoring, so it wouldn't be just the Sox having a declined pitching staff. PECOTA isn't really the best of the projection systems (i think CHONE is, not sure though) and I'm willing to bet that Nate Silver leaving really hurt them. I think the methodology of PECOTA is such that it tends to hammer people who are on the downside of their peak while going nuts over pre-peak guys.

 

Yeah, that is surprising from you...

 

I think they will though...

 

Think back to past years and what predictions have been prior to the season. Let's face it, there are several guys on this team who are going to perform completely differently than what we will predict them to.

 

I think they will be ok, but I also think we will pay for the mistake we just made in bypassing Thome.

Yeah, there are guys who will vastly outperform expectations and guys who underperform. That's just gonna happen

 

I don't want to derail the conversation too far, but I think it all matters on how they go about the DH situation. If they go with Kotsay/Jones, then yes, colossal mistake. If they go with Branyan, it's probably not a problem that they passed on Thome.

Edited January 29, 2010 by chunk23

[Soxfest]

If this happens then KW should be shown the door on October 4th!

Edited January 29, 2010 by Soxfest