2010 PECOTA

[iamshack]

Yeah, there are guys who will vastly outperform expectations and guys who underperform. That's just gonna happen

 

I don't want to derail the conversation too far, but I think it all matters on how they go about the DH situation. If they go with Kotsay/Jones, then yes, colossal mistake. If they go with Branyan, it's probably not a problem that they passed on Thome.

 

Why are you going to sign Branyon though when you just told Jim Thome there are no at bats for him?

[ThunderBolt]

Why are you going to sign Branyon though when you just told Jim Thome there are no at bats for him?

Because hopefully someone comes to their senses about Mark Kotsay being a DH?

[LittleHurt05]

Why are you going to sign Branyon though when you just told Jim Thome there are no at bats for him?

 

Branyan can still play 1b/3b, and possibly the OF, so you can find at bats for him as opposed to Thome who can only DH

 

I don't necessarily agree with this thinking, but it seems to be the way Ozzie is going about this all right now

Edited January 29, 2010 by LittleHurt05

[jamesdiego]

Smoke and mirrors brothers. When the Sox realize the Adrain dream is over, I believe they will scoop up Damon. He would rather play for a contender, we make the most sense. I don't think the Rays could afford him, and wouldn't the Mariners have to tell Jr to f*** off to make space? What other possible winning team does he have left?

[2nd_city_saint787]

Sorry but I think you are way off here.

1) We don't have a solid bopper DH so you can't factor that into the equation.

2) Lexi is nowhere close to the offensive player Jeter is, that is really a ridiculous statement.

3) CQ did have a great 2008. Let's hope he can stay healthy.

4) Rios has been discussed on this board a ton and I can see both sides of the argument.

5) I sure hope Beckham puts up better numbers than Rios.

6) Pierre is fast.

7) There are at least 10 catchers who are better hitters than AJ so I would not consider him one of the best.

8) PK is probably good for that, but thats in the bottom half of first baseman in baseball.

9) Teahan is not underrated at all here. Most people give him the numbers you state.

10) Kotsay has no business being a full time player, much less a DH. He is not a really good hitter against RHP. He has no pop. He is Erstad all over again. Jones hit 17 hrs sure but a 214 average is awful and I don't see how you can be happy with that.

 

 

I dont think im way off and youre points prove that.

 

1. I never factored in a solid bopper

2. I said he was being compared last year to Derek Jeter which i backed up later on with the article on espn that did it

3. we agreed there

4. yes there are 2 sides of the argument but how often does a 29 year old simply fall off so bad after 3 straight years of being a pretty damn good player.

5. I'm talking numbers like Rios put up in 07 .297 24 85

6. Pierre is another guy that there can be an argument both ways but i see no reason why he couldnt put up better numbers than Pods.

7. I prob am wrong here, BUT only 2 full time catcher hit .300 or better AJs 1 and the other won a batting title. yes i know batting average isnt everything buttttttttt it is a big part.

8. PK lead a 79 win team, that got better around him this year, in HR and RBI, just sayin.

9. Maybe im wrong but i coulda sworn ive read a lot of negative comments on teahen. either way i think hes actually gonna be a key part of the offense this year.

10. I've never said i like the platoon we got but you work with what you got, but look at his career splits i know he hasnt even been in a platoon situation in awhile but when he was a full time starter against RHP hes been an above average HITTER i stress hitter because yes like you said he has no pop but against RHP he will get on base and do things with his bat. I wanna wait on Andruw Jones and see what he looks like early on before anything is said, if hes in the kinda shape we were told about who knows what he'll do. He's gonna be playing for a hard ass like he was playing for Bobby Cox and i think Ozzie will get the best hes got out of him.

[The Ginger Kid]

 

 

[shago]

I wonder what Damon adds to those projections....

 

A World Series title

[everafan]

They have been admittedly bad (46 games off) at predicting the Sox since 2004. Here are their predictions on the Sox since then -

 

2004 - 79 wins

2005 - 80 wins

2006 - 82 wins

2007 - 73 wins (even though they were close on wins this year, they predicted that the pitching would be good and the offense would be bad - the reverse was true)

2008 - 77 wins

2009 - 73 wins

 

Now it's all based on established formulas, so "they hate the Sox" argument is not valid but some reasons they cite as to why they miss on the Sox are: Kenny makes midseason moves (they obviously didn't see Blum coming in 05) and the Sox stay healthier than other teams. They also predict every year that Buehrle is garbage and Floyd is lucky. The runs allowed projection is curious- they believe the Sox will be much worse in 2010.

 

[shago]

... all is NOT well

[Balta1701]

Branyan can still play 1b/3b, and possibly the OF, so you can find at bats for him as opposed to Thome who can only DH

With his health issues, I seriously doubt that.

[scenario]

Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected)

2004 - 79 wins/83 (+4)

2005 - 80 wins/99 (+19)

2006 - 82 wins/90 (+8)

2007 - 73 wins/73 (0)

2008 - 77 wins/89 (+12)

2009 - 73 wins/79 (+6)

 

 

So, if they predict every year that we'll do worse than we actually do... are there other teams that get the same treatment?

 

They can't predict every team will do worse than they actually do. Somewhere their predictions have to break even.

 

Is there another team that they are too optimistic on every year I wonder?

Edited January 29, 2010 by scenario

[LittleHurt05]

With his health issues, I seriously doubt that.

 

I don't know if he has any new health issues that I haven't heard of, but he did start 116 games at 1b last year for the M's and played over 30 games at 3b for the Brew Crew in 08. Personally, I want nothing to do with the guy cause he's so fluky and an hits for average

[Balta1701]

I don't know if he has any new health issues that I haven't heard of, but he did start 116 games at 1b last year for the M's and played over 30 games at 3b for the Brew Crew in 08. Personally, I want nothing to do with the guy cause he's so fluky and an hits for average

Branyan missed the last part of the season with back problems.

[LittleHurt05]

Branyan missed the last part of the season with back problems.

 

Yeah, that'll mess with your ability to play defense. Sucks for him, finally got the chance to play every day, played decently, but probably wont cash in too well off of it due to the market & injury.

[chunk23]

Yeah, that'll mess with your ability to play defense. Sucks for him, finally got the chance to play every day, played decently, but probably wont cash in too well off of it due to the market & injury.

Which is why he'd probably be cheap and fit in well at DH. Of course considering how little Thome signed for with the Twins, I can't imagine the budget is the issue.

 

Btw, it looks like there was some sort of calculation error in the pecota projections and they're hopefully looking into it. Pecota had a poor showing last year and I really think Silver leaving will set them back quite a bit. But hey let's just think they hate the Sox for some reason.

 

http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/2010-peco...-standings.html

http://vegaswatch.net/search/label/PECOTA

[NorthSideSox72]

Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected)

2004 - 79 wins/83 (+4)

2005 - 80 wins/99 (+19)

2006 - 82 wins/90 (+8)

2007 - 73 wins/73 (0)

2008 - 77 wins/89 (+12)

2009 - 73 wins/79 (+6)

 

 

So, if they predict every year that we'll do worse than we actually do... are there other teams that get the same treatment?

 

They can't predict every team will do worse than they actually do. Somewhere their predictions have to break even.

 

Is there another team that they are too optimistic on every year I wonder?

Wow, PECOTA underestimated the Sox every single year for 6 years straight? By an average of 8+ wins? That would put us at 87 wins in 2010, if we add the average underestimate.

 

I suppose some of that credit should go to Oz, the coaching staff and KW.

 

[Balta1701]

Wow, PECOTA underestimated the Sox every single year for 6 years straight? By an average of 8+ wins? That would put us at 87 wins in 2010, if we add the average underestimate.

 

I suppose some of that credit should go to Oz, the coaching staff and KW.

You want to add one more to that list, I think Pecota hates Mark Buehrle because he doesn't strike enough people out.

[SoxAce]

Wow, PECOTA underestimated the Sox every single year for 6 years straight?

 

Well they did get the 2007 prediction right on the money.

Edited January 29, 2010 by SoxAce

[2nd_city_saint787]

Well they did get the 2007 prediction right on the money.

 

 

love youre avatar, have the plat DVRd just because of stacey kings call. I want Stacey to guest broadcast a sox game with Hawk. "Someone pull Verlander aside and tell him who this kid is"

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jmiiR4hjPY...player_embedded for those who havent seen it

 

 

 

back to the white sox.......i believe all the points i make are valid, read em.

Edited January 29, 2010 by 2nd_city_saint787

[SoxAce]

love youre avatar, have the plat DVRd just because of stacey kings call. I want Stacey to guest broadcast a sox game with Hawk. "Someone pull Verlander aside and tell him who this kid is"

 

Haha, that should be an epic duel thats for sure.

[spiderman]

Year - Projected/Actual (Performance over Projected)

2004 - 79 wins/83 (+4)

2005 - 80 wins/99 (+19)

2006 - 82 wins/90 (+8)

2007 - 73 wins/73 (0)

2008 - 77 wins/89 (+12)

2009 - 73 wins/79 (+6)

 

 

So, if they predict every year that we'll do worse than we actually do... are there other teams that get the same treatment?

 

They can't predict every team will do worse than they actually do. Somewhere their predictions have to break even.

 

Is there another team that they are too optimistic on every year I wonder?

 

The 2007 White Sox were 72-90

 

[lostfan]

I dont think im way off and youre points prove that.

 

1. I never factored in a solid bopper

2. I said he was being compared last year to Derek Jeter which i backed up later on with the article on espn that did it

3. we agreed there

4. yes there are 2 sides of the argument but how often does a 29 year old simply fall off so bad after 3 straight years of being a pretty damn good player.

5. I'm talking numbers like Rios put up in 07 .297 24 85

6. Pierre is another guy that there can be an argument both ways but i see no reason why he couldnt put up better numbers than Pods.

7. I prob am wrong here, BUT only 2 full time catcher hit .300 or better AJs 1 and the other won a batting title. yes i know batting average isnt everything buttttttttt it is a big part.

8. PK lead a 79 win team, that got better around him this year, in HR and RBI, just sayin.

9. Maybe im wrong but i coulda sworn ive read a lot of negative comments on teahen. either way i think hes actually gonna be a key part of the offense this year.

10. I've never said i like the platoon we got but you work with what you got, but look at his career splits i know he hasnt even been in a platoon situation in awhile but when he was a full time starter against RHP hes been an above average HITTER i stress hitter because yes like you said he has no pop but against RHP he will get on base and do things with his bat. I wanna wait on Andruw Jones and see what he looks like early on before anything is said, if hes in the kinda shape we were told about who knows what he'll do. He's gonna be playing for a hard ass like he was playing for Bobby Cox and i think Ozzie will get the best hes got out of him.

#2 was explained by one poster as being not what you thought it was and thoroughly refuted by another poster... I agree, it's a ridiculous statement and you really should just concede that one. Derek Jeter is probably a first ballot Hall of Famer because of his offensive ability, Alexei, not so much.

[scenario]

The 2007 White Sox were 72-90

 

More proof that I'm not perfect. Damn.

[chunk23]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1495

 

They recognize and admit that there are problems, and will be trying to correct them.

[3E8]

Wow, PECOTA underestimated the Sox every single year for 6 years straight? By an average of 8+ wins? That would put us at 87 wins in 2010, if we add the average underestimate.

 

I suppose some of that credit should go to Oz, the coaching staff and KW.

A lot should go to Herm and our training staff too. I think we often forget what an incredible boon they are to our organization. We must be constantly beating time played predictions because as a whole the Sox are exceptional at limiting DL trips and keeping necessary ones minimum length