Neyer projects Sox as AL Central champs

[SoxAce]

And also have the best 1-2 punch in baseball with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee.

 

Not a stretch to say at all (can't really argue it per say), but I wouldn't say "best" quite yet. Though most would say Carpenter and Wainwright cause of last year and the "what have you done for me lately" thing, but for me personally... it's the two kids in SF I'm taking (Lincecum and Cain) till proven otherwise and you can even say Hamels and Halliday (especially moving to the NL) are up there as well. I expect my boy Cole to rebound nicely in 2010.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

My uber-long-shot prediction of the year is that the Rangers find themselves unexpectedly in contention for the West in July. They realize the thing holding them back is pitching, and they are all always ready to spend money if they have the chance to win (see: Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Kenny Rodgers, Ivan Rodriguez, Chan Ho Park). Combine this with JJ Putz positioning himself as the consistent pitcher we need, we shop Jenks or Liney to the Rangers so they can contend for the West. I know it's a stretch of a prediction, but I just think with the parity in the West that any team has a chance at it, and given the new ownership in Texas they might be willing to fill the necessary gaps by spending the money for the fans and the franchise.

The Rangers have been extremely economical over most of the last decade exactly because of that splurge they went on and how badly it hurt them.

 

The Rangers do not seem to be a team looking to suddenly spend a bunch of money under new ownership. Really, how often do you see this stuff happen in pro sports? The new owners are probably going to want to get a handle on everything before they start spending money like water. And the current economy in baseball also makes big spending a pretty unwise thing to do as it is. Let's say we make no moves all offseason until right now. Look at all the players out there, and how cheaply we could have picked them up. Next year should be more of the same. Most of Texas' money under new ownership should go towards extending their own players.

 

Unless Jenks has just a terrific year, given what guys like Soriano and Valverde got, he's probably a non-tender candidate after the season is over, which means no draft picks if that's the case. The price for Jenks, if he were for sale, probably wouldn't be all that staggering, so why would the Sox look to move him midseason and weaken their pen while trying to win a division? Makes no sense.

 

Linebrink can be had by anyone willing to take on that contract. The Sox do not like to eat salary to move a player and that's why he's not gone yet. If some team (any team) comes along offering to pick up the tab, or at least most of the tab, I have to think Kenny would pull the trigger immediately.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

The issue being that the back of their rotation is awful. Having Ian Snell and Yusmeiro Petit as your 3 and potential 5 may have seemed awesome 5 years ago, but it's certainly isn't now.

Snell definitely has upside and I loved that move from Seattle's end, but that said, you're right on in that there's a lot of uncertainty behind the big 2.

 

Think of it this way: it's all about winning games. While having a couple studs at the front of the rotation may be extremely helpful in the playoffs, especially in a short series, you don't necessarily win in the regular season because of that. Seattle's defense should really help them win in their own ballpark, and they're going to be very tough with Lee and King Felix on the mound, but when you put that team into a smaller park and throw some mediocre pitcher out there, that offense is going to look pretty bad.

 

By contrast, maybe the Angels don't have the defense the M's have, and maybe they don't have the sexy names at the front of their rotation, but they're a very solid team with a lot of talent and on any given day IMO they are more capable of beating a solid team than anyone else in that division.

[MiddleCoastBias]

The Rangers have been extremely economical over most of the last decade exactly because of that splurge they went on and how badly it hurt them.

 

The Rangers do not seem to be a team looking to suddenly spend a bunch of money under new ownership. Really, how often do you see this stuff happen in pro sports? The new owners are probably going to want to get a handle on everything before they start spending money like water. And the current economy in baseball also makes big spending a pretty unwise thing to do as it is. Let's say we make no moves all offseason until right now. Look at all the players out there, and how cheaply we could have picked them up. Next year should be more of the same. Most of Texas' money under new ownership should go towards extending their own players.

 

Unless Jenks has just a terrific year, given what guys like Soriano and Valverde got, he's probably a non-tender candidate after the season is over, which means no draft picks if that's the case. The price for Jenks, if he were for sale, probably wouldn't be all that staggering, so why would the Sox look to move him midseason and weaken their pen while trying to win a division? Makes no sense.

 

Linebrink can be had by anyone willing to take on that contract. The Sox do not like to eat salary to move a player and that's why he's not gone yet. If some team (any team) comes along offering to pick up the tab, or at least most of the tab, I have to think Kenny would pull the trigger immediately.

 

I agree that the Rangers ownership likely won't make a splash in terms of shelling out a bunch of money right now. But I do think that if they are in the mix in July (due to what I see as a parity in the West), they will likely go out and try to fill the gaps (which will most likely come from their pitchers). If Liney has a good/great first half like he's done before, I could see the Rangers eating his contract to improve their chances. And yes, making a move like this in the middle of our own divisional race seems stupid, but this is contingent on having other strong performers in our pen throughout the season and the seemingly likely chances that we'll be stuck with a broken Linebrink in the second half.

[elrockinMT]

That's a nice guy that there Neyer

Edited January 31, 2010 by elrockinMT

[Balta1701]

Ok, if 2005 is any guide, Neyer will pick the Sox in the preseason, the Sox will storm out to a very hot April led by their pitching staff, and then Neyer will spend the rest of the year picking against the Sox while they lead the league. I'll go with that.

[southsider2k5]

My uber-long-shot prediction of the year is that the Rangers find themselves unexpectedly in contention for the West in July. They realize the thing holding them back is pitching, and they are all always ready to spend money if they have the chance to win (see: Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, Kenny Rodgers, Ivan Rodriguez, Chan Ho Park). Combine this with JJ Putz positioning himself as the consistent pitcher we need, we shop Jenks or Liney to the Rangers so they can contend for the West. I know it's a stretch of a prediction, but I just think with the parity in the West that any team has a chance at it, and given the new ownership in Texas they might be willing to fill the necessary gaps by spending the money for the fans and the franchise.

 

Hicks is looking to sell the team. I can't see them throwing out tons of money anymore.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I agree that the Rangers ownership likely won't make a splash in terms of shelling out a bunch of money right now. But I do think that if they are in the mix in July (due to what I see as a parity in the West), they will likely go out and try to fill the gaps (which will most likely come from their pitchers). If Liney has a good/great first half like he's done before, I could see the Rangers eating his contract to improve their chances. And yes, making a move like this in the middle of our own divisional race seems stupid, but this is contingent on having other strong performers in our pen throughout the season and the seemingly likely chances that we'll be stuck with a broken Linebrink in the second half.

I'm sure like any other team the Rangers are going to look for pieces around the break if they're in contention, but not Linebrink. Even if the Sox ate all of the money owed to him in 2010, he's still making $5.5M in 2011. Mike Gonzalez got $6M per to close, just $500K more than Linebrink will make. Wagner and Valverde each got $7M to close, $1.5M more than Linebrink. Soriano got $7.5M to close, so just $2M more there. Middle relievers and setup men are getting way, way less than that. Linebrink could be awesome this year for both halves and if we wanted to move him we'd still have to eat salary or take on another bad contract. Linebrink's deal is one of the worst deals for a reliever in baseball right now since he's not a closer and is only good for the first half.

 

As far as Kenny shopping Linebrink though, that's in no way a bad move at all. Even if Linebrink has an ERA and WHIP under 1.00 with a nasty GB rate and a K/9 at 9 or above at the All-star break, it would make a mountain of sense to eat some cash and dump him off on some poor sucker as soon as we could.