Official 2010-11 NFL Thread

[iamshack]

So I have made my predictions for the NFC Playoff picture.

 

Getting the 2nd seed instead of the 3rd seed is going to be huge in the grand scheme of things. That win was HUGE for the Bears yesterday, as it would give us the tiebreaker if we finish tied with the Eagles as division winners of the North and East, respectively.

 

Here are my seeding predictions:

 

1. Atlanta - reasonably soft schedule, although they have a huge game against TB on the road this week and a big game left with the Saints in Atlanta which would solidify the number 1 seed if they can win.

 

2. Bears - wins against Detroit and Minny are a must. Final game against GB could be huge. Probably need a split against NE and NYJ to get to 11 wins and the HUGE second seed. A loss in the final game of the season could move them all the way down to the 6th spot or even out of the playoffs entirely, as a 10-6 Bucs team could possibly edge us out in a tiebreaker amongst common opponents

 

3. Philly - two games left with Dallas serves as a bit of a bad break for the Eagles, and one huge game in NY against the Giants, which the Giants are going to need more than Philly. I'm guessing Philly wins 4 of their final 5 and finishes tied at 11-5 with the Bears. They would then lose on a tiebreaker as a result of the Bears victory yesterday. This 3rd seed is really a brutal seed, as you will see below.

 

4. St Louis - the winner of any division, regardless of record, gets seeded higher than Wild Card teams. This is something that will eventually be changed hopefully, and this season should make that point clear.

 

5. New Orleans - will probably finish below Atlanta in the South division, although their matchup on Dec 27th will probably determine the division winner. As it stands, the Saints have the tougher schedule, with matchups in Baltimore, at Atlanta, and against Tampa to finish out the season.

 

6. Green Bay - giving the nod to the Packers in front of the Giants at this point, since the Giants have been decimated by injuries. This seed could be determined by the game between the two teams at Green Bay the day after Christmas. Then of course, the Packers and Bears square off the final game of the season in Green Bay. However, if the Packers and Bucs finish tied here, it is possible the Bucs could hold the tiebreaker as they may only have 4 conference losses, as the Packers might have 5 should they lose to Chicago.

 

On the outside looking in:

 

1. NYG - just so devastated by injuries, they are limping along right now. They have Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Washington twice on their schedule, as well as a slightly dangerous Minnesota team. Were they completely healthy, I would probably put them in there instead of GB, but I don't see them winning that game in GB and I don't see them finishing any better than 10-6.

 

2. Tampa Bay - Tampa's season basically boils down to this week's game against Atlanta. If they can pull off the upset, they actually have a very good chance to make the playoffs as they get Washington, Detroit and Seattle the following three weeks, two of them being at home. They then travel to New Orleans the final week to play the Saints. My guess is they lose both the divisional matchups, but they could finish at 10-6 and possibly earn a spot over a 10-6 Bears team that does not win the north division because of a tiebreaker edge against common opponents (this obviously depends on what Tampa does against upcoming opponents (Detroit, Washington, and Seattle). They could also beat out Green Bay in a tiebreaker, although this is unlikely.

 

 

Wow, these last 5 weeks are going to be absolutely wild in the NFC! Every game will be huge for every possible contender, with the Cowboys, Lions, and Redskins all having a big chance to be spoilers.

 

The 3rd seed will get absolutely screwed by having to play a team such as the Packers/Bears/Bucs or NYG while the 5th seed will probably play the NFC West division champion.

 

One key for Bears fans, don't finish in a 10-6 tie with Tampa Bay!

Edited November 29, 2010 by iamshack

[MurcieOne]

Started out the season trying way too hard to save his job. Dumb 4th down calls, blown clock management, it wasn't pretty.

 

He obviously still has that sense of urgency but now hes starting calm down a little bit... wish he could've coached like this every season.

 

I am still anti-lovie . . . but if he must keep his job, then please god retain all our staff. Marinelli has done a good job at DC, Martz as OC and Tice and Toub are all doing well also.

[Balta1701]

Johnson and Finnegan both get $25,000 fines for that brawl yesterday. No suspension

[Rowand44]

I haven't even bothered to watch the music video yet and I know not all of you guys are hip hop fans but let me know what you think of this song(it was played on WGN about a week ago):

[iamshack]

Johnson and Finnegan both get $25,000 fines for that brawl yesterday. No suspension

That seems like an incredibly light punishment after the $75,000 fines being handed out recently for helmet to helmet contact.

[Balta1701]

That seems like an incredibly light punishment after the $75,000 fines being handed out recently for helmet to helmet contact.

I really think they didn't want to deal with the "How could you suspend player xxx and not suspend Richard Seymour for that shot on Ben" question.

[iamshack]

I really think they didn't want to deal with the "How could you suspend player xxx and not suspend Richard Seymour for that shot on Ben" question.

I don't really care about the suspension, but it seems to me that it should be at least $50k in fines for each player.

[Chi Town Sox]

I don't really care about the suspension, but it seems to me that it should be at least $50k in fines for each player.

 

May just be me but I think 2 players inflicting pain on each other is a helluva lot different than a cheap shot on a defenseless player

 

[southsider2k5]

May just be me but I think 2 players inflicting pain on each other is a helluva lot different than a cheap shot on a defenseless player

 

On purpose is also a lot different than on accident.

[Quin]

Derek Anderson is awesome.

[iamshack]

Derek Anderson is awesome.

It was sad to hear all the commentators making fun of him.

[dasox24]

I haven't even bothered to watch the music video yet and I know not all of you guys are hip hop fans but let me know what you think of this song(it was played on WGN about a week ago):

Kinda catchy... I like it. And I'll definitely play it loud for my Packer-fan roommate to hear tomorrow.

[witesoxfan]

If nothing else, you have to appreciate a guy like Derek Anderson. What a dumbass question for the reporter to ask. Deuce went up to him, mentioned something funny that happened on the last play or on the drive or anything to take some of the edge off of a what is amounting to a tough loss, and they shared a laugh, and then ESPN probably caught the beginning, middle, and end of it.

 

Kind of funny how these Monday night blowups seem to always happen to the Cardinals.

[SoxAce]

Looking at Kyle Orton's season this year...it's really ironic how his career has completely been turned on its head.

 

Orton was always referred to as a "winner" when he was in Chicago, but nothing else. A QB which could manage the game for you. He would not lose it for you, but he probably wouldn't win it for you either. He threw 30 TD's against 27 INT's in his Bears career.

 

Then he gets traded to Denver, and puts up outstanding individual numbers and flourishes in their system. He is on pace for like 27-30 TDs this year and almost 5,000 yards, against only 7-10 INT's. That is a Pro Bowl season. He's thrown 41 TD's against 18 INT's since being traded to the Broncos.

 

And yet his record as a starter in Chicago was 21-12. His record for the Broncos is 11-15.

 

Crazy. Just goes to show you how important defense and a running game are, as well as how misleading statistics can be.

 

I just looked up his numbers myself and I had no idea he was putting up this kind of incredible year. Matt Cassel is also quietly having an outstanding season.

[lostfan]

Looking at Kyle Orton's season this year...it's really ironic how his career has completely been turned on its head.

 

Orton was always referred to as a "winner" when he was in Chicago, but nothing else. A QB which could manage the game for you. He would not lose it for you, but he probably wouldn't win it for you either. He threw 30 TD's against 27 INT's in his Bears career.

 

Then he gets traded to Denver, and puts up outstanding individual numbers and flourishes in their system. He is on pace for like 27-30 TDs this year and almost 5,000 yards, against only 7-10 INT's. That is a Pro Bowl season. He's thrown 41 TD's against 18 INT's since being traded to the Broncos.

 

And yet his record as a starter in Chicago was 21-12. His record for the Broncos is 11-15.

 

Crazy. Just goes to show you how important defense and a running game are, as well as how misleading statistics can be.

I wrote this on another board. He was a "winner" in Chicago even though quite often he really had nothing to do with those wins at all. Now he is losing games even though he is not responsible for those losses at all. That's just really ironic. This is another reason why there's often way too much focus on QB play in the last 10 years or so.

[Balta1701]

I wrote this on another board. He was a "winner" in Chicago even though quite often he really had nothing to do with those wins at all. Now he is losing games even though he is not responsible for those losses at all. That's just really ironic. This is another reason why there's often way too much focus on QB play in the last 10 years or so.

Too much focus on the QB Play? Come on LF. The QB is literally the decider in this league. The problem with your statement is how you define "Focus". Orton is having a good statistical season, where would that team be if it was starting Tebow for example?

 

How many teams have had their performance this year directly tied to their QB's performance? The Bills started getting good games from Fitzpatrick and suddenly went from being a laughingstock to looking good. Colt McCoy comes in for the injured scrubs and suddenly Cleveland stomps the Patriots. Troy Smith comes in and suddenly the Niners can win games. Peyton Manning is probably the only reason the Colts have won a game this season. Sam Bradford. Philip Rivers. Etc.

[WhiteSoxfan1986]

I hope Arizona enjoyed those two good years, because they are going to suck for awhile. Hell, they weren't even a good team when they made the super bowl, just won a terrible division and got hot at the right time.

[StrangeSox]

If nothing else, you have to appreciate a guy like Derek Anderson. What a dumbass question for the reporter to ask. Deuce went up to him, mentioned something funny that happened on the last play or on the drive or anything to take some of the edge off of a what is amounting to a tough loss, and they shared a laugh, and then ESPN probably caught the beginning, middle, and end of it.

 

Kind of funny how these Monday night blowups seem to always happen to the Cardinals.

 

Yeah, SportsCenter this morning had the headline (or whatever you call the upcoming stories on the side) of "Derek Anderson Meltdown". Completely overblown and a really stupid question.

[Jenksismyhero]

I hope Arizona enjoyed those two good years, because they are going to suck for awhile. Hell, they weren't even a good team when they made the super bowl, just won a terrible division and got hot at the right time.

 

I don't think they were TERRIBLE. That just goes to show you how great Warner and Fitzgerald were.

[iamshack]

I don't think they were TERRIBLE. That just goes to show you how great Warner and Fitzgerald were.

Absolutely. And it hurts losing Dansby as well.

[Balta1701]

Absolutely. And it hurts losing Dansby as well.

True...but I think it mostly tells me how truly important the QB position is in that league (Going back to LF's statement that it isn't as important as some think).

[iamshack]

True...but I think it mostly tells me how truly important the QB position is in that league (Going back to LF's statement that it isn't as important as some think).

That's not fair though, Balta. You're comparing a hall of fame QB versus a drunken fool, in Derek Anderson. Talk about going from one end of the spectrum to another.

[Balta1701]

That's not fair though, Balta. You're comparing a hall of fame QB versus a drunken fool, in Derek Anderson. Talk about going from one end of the spectrum to another.

Exactly. That team went from that 100 point race with the Packers in the Playoffs to barely sticking their heads above water. That's all the QB shift.

[lostfan]

I didn't say QB wasn't the most important position. Nothing like that. I said there was too much focus on it, at least focus for the wrong reasons. The Colts would be 6-10 every year without Peyton Manning. At the same time Brady misses an entire season and is replaced by a complete nobody (at the time, and to see what I'm getting at look at Cassel's 2009 where he was in a different system, not this year) and they still make the playoffs. Commentators and casual fans gush over the QB and give him credit almost exclusively for things he didn't do when the team wins as if he did everything and blame him for things that were someone else's fault when they lose.

 

Example, last year a Vikings fan was talking s*** about how at first she was jealous that the Vikings missed out on Cutler and she was so glad they had Favre instead. I said, in so many words, that she was retarded. She rebutted with the # of interceptions Cutler had to that point in the year (it was like 20 something). I pointed out to her that she was really coming across like she had never watched football before because Favre was the all-time interceptions leader and once threw 28 in a season (with only 20 TDs, at least Cutler had 27 TDs last year). If the Vikings had gotten Cutler last year, with that offense, he'd have had 30+ TDs and nowhere near 26 interceptions, and they still would've gone deep into the playoffs. Plus their season wouldn't be effectively over right now since he'd only be 27 years old and not 78 or however old Grandpa (literally) Brett is. QBs aren't just interchangeable, we Bears fans all found that out last year the hard way. If we traded for Philip Rivers in the offseason he'd still be playing behind this garbage line, throwing to an average group of WRs, and he'd have growing pains learning Martz's offense. He wouldn't just instantly bring his San Diego stats over with him.

[iamshack]

Exactly. That team went from that 100 point race with the Packers in the Playoffs to barely sticking their heads above water. That's all the QB shift.

There are subtleties in the NFL that can have huge ramifications. The Cardinals have been without Breaston for most of the year, have lost Dansby and some other key defensive pieces, Boldin is gone, and they have substituted one of the better qb's in NFL history for one of the worst in NFL history. Yes, there is a focus on the QB in this league. It is the most important position in all of sports. But you don't just find a talented QB and solve all your problems. Which is what Lost was arguing.