An AL Scout for Sporting News

[Quin]

Was asked "Which Contender (in the Central) has the best rotation"

 

Scout: "The Royals go Greinke, Meche, Hochevar-he could have a breakout year-but it's the Tigers definitely. With Scherzer sliding into the rotation with Verlander and Porcello, that's only going to make them stronger. They're going to have a really tough rotation. If their bullpen can step up and their offense can do what they need to do..."

 

Silly scout. Peavy-Buehrle-Danks-Floyd easily trump those trios.

 

Anyway, tidbits from the SN article on the AL Central

 

#1 Priority: Polishing the revamped defense. Ozzie: "Quentin is going to his natural position. He will do a better job. Beckham, this kid, he's a hell of a ball player, and that helps. Rigt now, he's playing the middle of the infield. It's easier and will help him to stay fresh playing second."

 

Roster Rundown: Juan Pierre has crappy on-base percentage, but is the speedy Ozzie style leadoff, and better than Dye defensively. Daniel Hudson, depending on his spring training, could be in the rotation, bullpen, or AAA. Josh Fields is gone. The roster spot "showdown" is backup catcher, Ramon Castro vs. the much more offensive threat in Tyler Flowers. It depends on if Flowers can handle the pitching staff.

[maggsmaggs]

I read that in the magazine. Tigers could have a better 1-3 (still don't think so) but there is no way a team has a better 1-5 than the Sox.

[chw42]

I read that in the magazine. Tigers could have a better 1-3 (still don't think so) but there is no way a team has a better 1-5 than the Sox.

 

Unless Porcello develops to strike more hitters out, he's most likely not going to have the same kind of year he had last season.

 

Scherzer's a nice pitcher, but you won't see him be much better than his 4.12 ERA from last year.

 

Counting on Hochevar to be good is also not a good bet.

Edited February 14, 2010 by chw42

[Balta1701]

Scherzer sliding into the rotation makes them stronger but losing Jackson doesn't make them weaker?

[scenario]

Kyle Farnsworth is auditioning for a spot in the Royals' rotation.

 

Nuff said.

 

 

[Balta1701]

It's somewhat surprising how many things it seems like people are forgetting. They've forgotten how important Jackson was for Detroit last year. They've forgotten how reliably awesome Peavy was prior to a brief injury last year. They've forgotten how important the back end of a rotation can be.

[ThunderBolt]

Unless Porcello drastically improves his peripherals the Tigers are going to be in for an unpleasant surprise this year.

[chw42]

Unless Porcello drastically improves his peripherals the Tigers are going to be in for an unpleasant surprise this year.

 

His lack of them has CHONE projecting him with a 5.10 ERA next year.

[Balta1701]

Unless Porcello drastically improves his peripherals the Tigers are going to be in for an unpleasant surprise this year.

Given the age at which he started, it's entirely plausible to expect that he will. His peripherals also improved markedly in the 2nd half of last year; WHIP dropped from 1.45 to 1.2, K/BB went from 1.5 to 2.

[dmbjeff]

Scherzer sliding into the rotation makes them stronger but losing Jackson doesn't make them weaker?

 

It's a lateral move at best in the short term. Scherzer has some great "stuff" but moving from the NL to the AL won't do him any favors. Long term he may end up better than Jackson.

[maggsmaggs]

I will def. take Verlander and Greinke over any Sox starter (yes, even Peavy until I see him for a whole season this year with the Sox and he doesn't have 67% of his starts against KC). But then I think you gotta take the Sox's 1-4 ahead of anyone else who starts in the division.

[Quin]

Unless Porcello develops to strike more hitters out, he's most likely not going to have the same kind of year he had last season.

 

Scherzer's a nice pitcher, but you won't see him be much better than his 4.12 ERA from last year.

 

Counting on Hochevar to be good is also not a good bet.

 

Exactly. Peavy, Greinke, and Verlander could all put up the same seasons. All 3 have had good and bad seasons, so who knows. After that, Buehrle is better than Meche and Porcello, and it's no contest when it comes to Danks/Floyd vs. Scherzer and Hochevar.

[joeynach]

Wasn't Porecello's ERA even over 4 last year. I dont see how u just think between Verlander, Scherezer, and Porcello that 2 of 3 having 4+ ERA makes them awesome. I mean its not bad and better than most, but we have 3 pitches in our rotation who are consistently well below a 4.0 ERA.

[SoxFan1]

Verlander has got to be one of the more overrated players in the AL, imo.

[SI1020]

His lack of them has CHONE projecting him with a 5.10 ERA next year.

That settles it then. He's definitely going to suck this year.

 

[SoxAce]

Verlander has got to be one of the more overrated players in the AL, imo.

 

Soon to be 27 year old pitcher who (besides one season) has been putting up 3 eras and finally figured out how to destroy people last season (+10.1 K/9 IP) with filthy stuff and a power arm? I'll take him if you don't want him. He'd probably be the ace (maybe #2 if Peavy is really good in the AL) on our staff. Now Scherzer... he is way more overhyped.

Edited February 14, 2010 by SoxAce

[Quin]

Verlander has got to be one of the more overrated players in the AL, imo.

 

No kidding.I think he's gonna have a year similar to his 2008 one, considering he's a power pitcher who pitched 240 innings last year.

[MattZakrowski]

No kidding.I think he's gonna have a year similar to his 2008 one, considering he's a power pitcher who pitched 240 innings last year.

 

This is critical. I think he's the 2nd best pitcher in the division, but he's been Dusty Baker'd most of his career.

[SoxAce]

This is critical. I think he's the 2nd best pitcher in the division, but he's been Dusty Baker'd most of his career.

 

Now this I agree with.

[ThunderBolt]

That settles it then. He's definitely going to suck this year.

You do realize that there is ample statistical support for this projection?

[witesoxfan]

You do realize that there is ample statistical support for this projection?

 

It's also still a projection. The fact remains that Porcello exhibits good command of his pitches and his GO/AO of 2 is a good indicator that he can keep his numbers pretty damn good. He'll need to start striking batters out at a better clip, but it wouldn't shock me to see his ERA in the 4.25 range.

[ThunderBolt]

It's also still a projection. The fact remains that Porcello exhibits good command of his pitches and his GO/AO of 2 is a good indicator that he can keep his numbers pretty damn good. He'll need to start striking batters out at a better clip, but it wouldn't shock me to see his ERA in the 4.25 range.

I'm well aware of the wooly nature of projections. I simply can't stand people who write the process off while ignoring the obvious logic that goes into it.

[witesoxfan]

I'm well aware of the wooly nature of projections. I simply can't stand people who write the process off while ignoring the obvious logic that goes into it.

 

I understand. The main problem I have with projections is that they generally hate pitchers that pitch to contact. It has been proven that pitchers can do just fine with pitching to contact. It's just unpredictable, and thus can't be factored in. Take Buehrle for instance...he's the absolute definition of a guy that pitches to contact, but he has fantastic command of his stuff, and has only had one terrible year in his entire career, and yet, year after year, projections predict he'll end up with an ERA in the 4.50 range.

[ptatc]

I understand. The main problem I have with projections is that they generally hate pitchers that pitch to contact. It has been proven that pitchers can do just fine with pitching to contact. It's just unpredictable, and thus can't be factored in. Take Buehrle for instance...he's the absolute definition of a guy that pitches to contact, but he has fantastic command of his stuff, and has only had one terrible year in his entire career, and yet, year after year, projections predict he'll end up with an ERA in the 4.50 range.

 

Another significant problem with most projection schemes is that use standard deviations and standard error of measures to predict regressions. These stats depend on there being a normal population bellcurve for the stats. We are dealing with the top persentile of baseball players not a normal population. So the predicting of "regression to the norm" or part of the way is not a valid statistical assumption.

[Springfield Soxfan]

Let the baseball world continue to underestimate our starting pitching and our team, that plays right into Ozzie's hands. Sure the Twins have boosted their payroll, but that is temporary.