An AL Scout for Sporting News

[witesoxfan]

Let the baseball world continue to underestimate our starting pitching and our team, that plays right into Ozzie's hands. Sure the Twins have boosted their payroll, but that is temporary.

 

I don't think so; Carl Pohlad was worth roughly $2 billion when he passed away, and his son is running the team and has been much more liberal in regards to spending. I don't see them cutting back any time soon.

[chw42]

Wasn't Porecello's ERA even over 4 last year. I dont see how u just think between Verlander, Scherezer, and Porcello that 2 of 3 having 4+ ERA makes them awesome. I mean its not bad and better than most, but we have 3 pitches in our rotation who are consistently well below a 4.0 ERA.

 

It was barely below 4. But both his FIP and tERA were almost a run higher.

[chw42]

That settles it then. He's definitely going to suck this year.

 

No, but it definitely points in the direction that he needs to improve his peripheral skills in order to succeed.

 

Marcel has him at a ERA near 4 BTW.

[Felix]

Let the baseball world continue to underestimate our starting pitching and our team, that plays right into Ozzie's hands. Sure the Twins have boosted their payroll, but that is temporary.

Why would that be temporary? The Twins have always had the ability to spend this much on their team, but now that Pohlad is gone and they're opening up their new stadium, they'll be able to spend plenty on their team. Add in the fact that Minneapolis isn't a small market like everyone thinks, and there's no reason to assume this spending isn't going to continue.

[chw42]

Why would that be temporary? The Twins have always had the ability to spend this much on their team, but now that Pohlad is gone and they're opening up their new stadium, they'll be able to spend plenty on their team. Add in the fact that Minneapolis isn't a small market like everyone thinks, and there's no reason to assume this spending isn't going to continue.

 

It'll end once the fascination with the new ball park ends. Which is in about 3-4 years.

[RockRaines]

Scherzer sliding into the rotation makes them stronger but losing Jackson doesn't make them weaker?

 

Its a large downgrade on paper. You have a guy who was crucial for them last season leaving town and you are sliding an NL west pitcher into the rotation.

[Felix]

It'll end once the fascination with the new ball park ends. Which is in about 3-4 years.

If Minneapolis actually was a small market, sure, I might see that logic. But it's not.

 

Add in the fact that the Twins actually get all the revenue out of Target Field (something that wasn't the case in the Metrodome), and I don't see them suddenly pinching pennies again.

Edited February 15, 2010 by Felix

[chw42]

If Minneapolis actually was a small market, sure, I might see that logic. But it's not.

 

Add in the fact that the Twins actually get all the revenue out of Target Field (something that wasn't the case in the Metrodome), and I don't see them suddenly pinching pennies again.

 

I don't think they've been pinching pennies, they'll still spend $70-80 million on the team, but you might not see $95 million like this year.

[YonderLaroche]

Tigers lost Edwin Jackson too. Stupid ass article.

[caulfield12]

And Polanco. And Rodney. And Brandon Lyon.

 

That they are left with Ordonez and Guillen (and their huge salaries) when they should have been playing Granderson, Thomas and Raburn this year 90-95% of the time was really just financial mismanagement....specifically, the Sheffield, Bonderman, Willis and Robertson contracts.

 

Although Renteria was almost as bad.

[DBAHO]

Let them underrate us.

 

It should be what we want coming off what we put up last season.

 

FWIW, the key guy for me for our rotation will be Buehrle. We know that Peavy will probably put up some damn good numbers, and we know pretty much what to expect with Gavin and Danksy, even though they may hit a rough spot every now and again.

 

We need MB to be the pitcher he was before the perfect game last season, and not what he put up afterwards.

[bighurt4life]

I think that the key difference b/t the sox and the tigers/royals rotations is that all of our guys are proven commodities at this point more or less. The tigers need to have porcello show that he wasn't a one year wonder who got the benefit of some lucky bounces being that he's a contact pitcher and they need scherzer to show that he can handle the AL ( which i personally don't think he can) the royals need hochevar to do something that he's never done and that is pitch an entire season at a high level.

 

on the other hand, we have buerhle who i don't need to say anything about his ability, and then danks and floyd who have both put together very good back to back seasons and are only getting better. there you have 3 proven starters not including peavy (whose ability i really don't have any concerns about). that's a pretty damn good front 4, and all they need to do to put up good numbers is perform at about their career averages, we don't need any big jumps in performance to have success out of them. I'll take that any day of the week over whatever potential the tigers/royals rotations have.

[shakes]

Tigers lost Edwin Jackson too. Stupid ass article.

 

He was their second best pitcher last year. I'm not saying he can repeat that season, but I'm pretty sure Sherzer isn't ready to do what Jackson did. I don't get the hype of their pitching. It's got a ton to prove. Sherzer for starters needs to improve his control or he will be a 4-5 inning pitcher in the AL. His lack of control and HR numbers will get him in a lot of trouble in the AL. His talent is there, but he also needs to prove he can get through a full season without shoulder trouble. Porcello should be good, but penciling him in at #2 is a big burden for someone his age and level. It also sounds like the Tigers are going to be careful with his pitch counts and innings. Bonderman at #4? Does he have anything in the tank? Can he go deep in games? Is he healthy? Who's #5? Galarraga?

 

That bullpen could end up getting more innings than anyone in the AL. Having Porcello and Sherzer as your 2 and 3 doesn't scare me in the least. And who's to take those added bullpen innings? Coke, Shlereth, Perry, Willis, Zumaya? Do we have to cover the question marks with each of them?

 

Some of these evaluations amaze me. I guess you can spin any team into being awesome if you only look at the upside.

[jz54]

I am a Tigers fan who does not agree with the scout's comment. I think the Sox have a better/more proven rotation. The Tigers' rotation has upside, but also many question marks (even extending to whether a pitcher like Jeremy Bonderman can come back from his Thoracic Outlet Compression surgery.)

 

Unless Porcello drastically improves his peripherals the Tigers are going to be in for an unpleasant surprise this year.

 

I'm not sure he does have to have an elite strike out rate. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher: 54% ground balls last season. As long as he keeps the ball on the ground at that rate, he can continue to have success, imo.

 

But I think he will strike out more batters next year for the simple fact that he will learn how to better utilize his arsenal. He pitched last season as a 20-year-old rookie with one year of experience in professional baseball (in A ball). The fact that he succeeded/held his own at that age and level of experience is amazing. And I saw him make adjustments towards the end of last season. For example, he had eight strike outs in the play-in game in Minnesota because he better utilized his 4-seam fastball.

 

Verlander has got to be one of the more overrated players in the AL, imo.

 

Overrated according to what measure? He's one of the five best pitchers in the AL. Last season, he was 2nd in baseball in pitcher WAR, 2nd in the AL in FIP, 4th in xFIP, had more strike outs than anyone in the AL since Pedro in his filthy 2000 season.

 

No kidding.I think he's gonna have a year similar to his 2008 one, considering he's a power pitcher who pitched 240 innings last year.

This is critical. I think he's the 2nd best pitcher in the division, but he's been Dusty Baker'd most of his career.

 

Mark Prior and Kerry Wood blew their arms out because they had bad mechanics. Verlander does not have bad mechanics. His workload is definitely a concern, but if he stays healthy, I very much doubt he will have a year like 2008. Everything would have to go wrong for him again: bad arm slot that caused him to lose velocity and command, a pitching coach who told him to pitch like a finesse pitcher, a bad bullpen that let an unusually high number of inherited runners to score, etc.

 

Its a large downgrade on paper. You have a guy who was crucial for them last season leaving town and you are sliding an NL west pitcher into the rotation.

 

But Jackson overachieved last season. He pitched more like 4.50 ERA pitcher than a 3.60 ERA pitcher. It was doubtful he could have repeated last season's success, hence selling high on him.

Edited February 15, 2010 by jz54

[BigSqwert]

Welcome aboard!

[bighurt574]

Porcello is 21 years old. He's extremely young. It seems reasonable to expect some improvement from last year's peripherals. But I'm not sure how any projection really accounts for that. The only data on Porcello is his 20-year-old rookie season, and after that, there can't be a whole lot of data on how such a young pitcher typically progresses in his second year. It's a crap shoot, if you ask me.

Edited February 15, 2010 by bighurt574

[Quin]

Mark Prior and Kerry Wood blew their arms out because they had bad mechanics. Verlander does not have bad mechanics. His workload is definitely a concern, but if he stays healthy, I very much doubt he will have a year like 2008. Everything would have to go wrong for him again: bad arm slot that caused him to lose velocity and command, a pitching coach who told him to pitch like a finesse pitcher, a bad bullpen that let an unusually high number of inherited runners to score, etc.

 

Welcome aboard! As ye be a Tiger fan, this'd be your colors.

 

Anyway, yes, Prior and Wood blew out their arms, but neither had near the workload he had last year. He pitched a Buehrlesque amount of innings last year, but he's a different type of pitcher.

 

Buehrle is built to be a workhorse, since he doesn't throw hard at all. Verlander tops 100 more than anyone else, and he pitched a lot of innings. I should rephrase what I said earlier, he won't pitch as badly as he did in 2008, but he won't pitch as well as he did last year. I'd peg him for something like 3.75 ERA, 16 wins. I wouldn't be shocked if he did better though.

[chw42]

Welcome aboard! As ye be a Tiger fan, this'd be your colors.

 

Anyway, yes, Prior and Wood blew out their arms, but neither had near the workload he had last year. He pitched a Buehrlesque amount of innings last year, but he's a different type of pitcher.

 

Buehrle is built to be a workhorse, since he doesn't throw hard at all. Verlander tops 100 more than anyone else, and he pitched a lot of innings. I should rephrase what I said earlier, he won't pitch as badly as he did in 2008, but he won't pitch as well as he did last year. I'd peg him for something like 3.75 ERA, 16 wins. I wouldn't be shocked if he did better though.

 

Verlander's 08 season was a perfect example of why he could blow up next year. The amount of innings he threw the two previous years dropped his velocity down by around 2-3 MPH.

[Ozzie Ball]

Its a large downgrade on paper. You have a guy who was crucial for them last season leaving town and you are sliding an NL west pitcher into the rotation.

It is?

 

Jackson 09:

FIP- 4.28

xFIP- 4.39

tERA- 4.37

 

Scherzer 09:

FIP- 3.87

xFIP- 3.88

tERA- 4.12

 

Jackson 2010 projections:

Bill James- 4.75 ERA (4.72 FIP)

CHONE- 4.35 ERA (4.33 FIP)

Marcel- 4.33 ERA (4.63 FIP)

 

Scherzer 2010 projections:

Bill James- 3.80 ERA (3.58 FIP)

CHONE- 4.27 ERA (4.00 FIP)

Marcel- 4.01 ERA (3.93 FIP)

 

Talent wise Scherzer is much better. He does bring injury issues that Jackson doesn't and it's yet to be seen how he handles 200 IP and the American League, but I don't see how you can say he's a "large downgrade" from Jackson.

[dyuen]

Let them underrate us.

 

It should be what we want coming off what we put up last season.

 

FWIW, the key guy for me for our rotation will be Buehrle. We know that Peavy will probably put up some damn good numbers, and we know pretty much what to expect with Gavin and Danksy, even though they may hit a rough spot every now and again.

 

We need MB to be the pitcher he was before the perfect game last season, and not what he put up afterwards.

 

I disagree. I think Mark is the guy we know what we will get the most. Are you basing this on a few bad starts in half a season? I think Peavy is the biggest wildcard. He gets hurt a lot and as we all know he is making a huge move in parks. Now I think he will be very good but it certainly isnt a known commodity to me. The other two are still too young to say they are more of a sure thing than Mark.

[ptatc]

Welcome aboard! As ye be a Tiger fan, this'd be your colors.

 

Anyway, yes, Prior and Wood blew out their arms, but neither had near the workload he had last year. He pitched a Buehrlesque amount of innings last year, but he's a different type of pitcher.

 

Buehrle is built to be a workhorse, since he doesn't throw hard at all. Verlander tops 100 more than anyone else, and he pitched a lot of innings. I should rephrase what I said earlier, he won't pitch as badly as he did in 2008, but he won't pitch as well as he did last year. I'd peg him for something like 3.75 ERA, 16 wins. I wouldn't be shocked if he did better though.

 

This has no bearing on the workload. When MB throws 90, he is working just as hard as Verlander when he throws 100. If two people are sprinting in a race just because one guy lost doesn't mean he wasn't working as hard he just isn't as fast. Just because he can't throw as hard doesn't mean he isn't working just as hard if not harder.

 

 

Now if you want to compare mechanics and which motion is more efficient that's a different discussion.

 

The workload in the previous can have a major effect. This is where you need to worry about a drop off. Some handle it better than others.

[The Ginger Kid]

Overrated according to what measure? He's one of the five best pitchers in the AL. Last season, he was 2nd in baseball in pitcher WAR, 2nd in the AL in FIP, 4th in xFIP, had more strike outs than anyone in the AL since Pedro in his filthy 2000 season.

 

welcome aboard.

 

I agree - Verlander's a stud with the most fluid motion I've ever seen. Effortless 97mph. It's fun to watch.

[Quin]

I disagree. I think Mark is the guy we know what we will get the most. Are you basing this on a few bad starts in half a season? I think Peavy is the biggest wildcard. He gets hurt a lot and as we all know he is making a huge move in parks. Now I think he will be very good but it certainly isnt a known commodity to me. The other two are still too young to say they are more of a sure thing than Mark.

 

Last year was the first year where Peavy really got hurt a lot.

[DBAHO]

I disagree. I think Mark is the guy we know what we will get the most. Are you basing this on a few bad starts in half a season? I think Peavy is the biggest wildcard. He gets hurt a lot and as we all know he is making a huge move in parks. Now I think he will be very good but it certainly isnt a known commodity to me. The other two are still too young to say they are more of a sure thing than Mark.

I look at Mark's history, and he's basically gone through stretches in a season (some call it a dead arm period because of all of the IP he's thrown over the years) where he's struggled, the back end of 2009 being one of those times (albeit an ERA of 4.06 post ASB is still pretty good).

 

There were just a couple of worrying signs for me with his numbers last season, giving up 5 more HR's in 09 than 08, his K rate decreasing signifcantly (albeit he's not a strikeout pitcher), while his BABIP will a bit lower than what is was over the seasons before, which may me thinks his numbers were a little lucky possibly.

 

Both CHONE and Marcel predict he'll have an ERA just over 4 for 2010 FWIW.

[chw42]

I look at Mark's history, and he's basically gone through stretches in a season (some call it a dead arm period because of all of the IP he's thrown over the years) where he's struggled, the back end of 2009 being one of those times (albeit an ERA of 4.06 post ASB is still pretty good).

 

There were just a couple of worrying signs for me with his numbers last season, giving up 5 more HR's in 09 than 08, his K rate decreasing signifcantly (albeit he's not a strikeout pitcher), while his BABIP will a bit lower than what is was over the seasons before, which may me thinks his numbers were a little lucky possibly.

 

Both CHONE and Marcel predict he'll have an ERA just over 4 for 2010 FWIW.

Which isn't all that bad since projections usually don't favor Mark.