Andruw Jones is on a mission

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Extrapolating is just not a very good idea to base your projections on.

 

If we extrapolated Jermaine dyes season last year after the all star break he would've been going for a 40 HR season.

 

I mean, extrapolating Beckhams #s for a full season I feel is a lot more reasonable than doing it for a 33 year old injury plagued outfielder who has sucked for 3 years now.

[Lillian]

Extrapolating is just not a very good idea to base your projections on.

 

If we extrapolated Jermaine dyes season last year after the all star break he would've been going for a 40 HR season.

 

I mean, extrapolating Beckhams #s for a full season I feel is a lot more reasonable than doing it for a 33 year old injury plagued outfielder who has sucked for 3 years now.

 

Yes, I agree that extrapolating and projecting numbers can be suspect. However, in this case, I think it's valid.

Consider the fact that Jones was plagued by a bad hamstring the whole second half of the season. His production was actually even better than his final numbers, which declined when he tried to play through the injury. He ended the first half of the season with a .229 average and a .344 OBP. He hit all 17 of his homers in his first 221 at bats, so if you want to do projections, that works out to 43 homers in a 550 at bat full season. Therefore, the projection I made earlier is actually quite conservative.

 

Doesn't it make sense to consider all of these kinds of factors when trying to determine what kind of expectations we should have for Jones? In the final analysis, aren't we always extrapolating when we form our expectations for any player?

[Lillian]

There is yet another factor which I forgot to mention. Last year was his first year in the American League. As he gets to know the pitchers better, his familiarity with their 'stuff' should help him to improve upon his first half season in the A.L.

[southsider2k5]

Very funny. However, we are talking about a former perrenial All Star, and genuine super star, who got injured, became overweight and out of shape. His performance then fell off dramatically, right at a time in his career when he should have been in his prime. That suggests the possibility that his getting healthy and in shape could make a significant difference.

 

Here is a link to his injury history:

http://www.baseballinjurytool.com/injury-tool.php

 

I understand that he has been linked to PEDS, however he was always a very good player until the last few years. Moreover, steroids don't help a hitter to make contact, nor to win Gold Gloves. Perhaps they made him stronger, and maybe he wouldn't have hit 51 homers in 2005 without them, but this guy was an elite player. He has really only struggled for the first time in his career, during the last 3 seasons, the time that he was hurt, and out of shape. Even then his numbers from last year project to 36 doubles, 34 homers and 86 RBI's. Wouldn't you take that at DH?

The previous season, his first with the Dodgers he was injured and missed more than half the season. The year before that, his last year in Atlanta, he did have his first really bad batting average year, but even then he was productive, with 94 RBI's.

 

I just think that while your point is well taken, in that they don't award wins or championships for being healthy and in shape, the improved physical condition can definitely enable a gifted athlete to perform up to his potential, while being injured and out of shape is a tremendous handicap.

 

I'm optimistic, and am looking forward to seeing what he can do, especially with his apparent improved attitude.

And remember that he's playing for a contract.

 

And here is the pessimist in me... If he was a PEDs guy, what would stop him from finding something undetectable through piss tests to save his career?

[MattZakrowski]

And here is the pessimist in me... If he was a PEDs guy, what would stop him from finding something undetectable through piss tests to save his career?

 

As long as he's on the White Sox, I'd call it mixed optimism at the very least.

[Steve9347]

I find it funny that I am reading that Soxtalk is now drinking the Kool-Aid since we passed on Damon. Three days ago we were screwed without Damon, now he's on the Tigers so Jones will be Comeback Player of the Year.

 

[Lillian]

I find it funny that I am reading that Soxtalk is now drinking the Kool-Aid since we passed on Damon. Three days ago we were screwed without Damon, now he's on the Tigers so Jones will be Comeback Player of the Year.

 

 

While I would have liked Damon on the Sox, I for one, never said that we we're screwed without him.

I've been consistently optimistic about Jones, ever since he signed with the Sox.

[westsidesoxfan]

I find it funny that I am reading that Soxtalk is now drinking the Kool-Aid since we passed on Damon. Three days ago we were screwed without Damon, now he's on the Tigers so Jones will be Comeback Player of the Year.

 

 

I find it hard not to be optimistic about a guy with so much potential. Same with Rios. Yes Rios had a pretty much awful year all of last year, but you know what kind a special player that he can be, especially in CF. Jones just needs to stay healthy, and with him in shape I don't see that being much of an issue. If we can get Joe Crede numbers out of him, and have him get hits in crucial situations, he'll be successful.

[ThunderBolt]

I find it hard not to be optimistic about a guy with so much potential. Same with Rios. Yes Rios had a pretty much awful year all of last year, but you know what kind a special player that he can be, especially in CF. Jones just needs to stay healthy, and with him in shape I don't see that being much of an issue. If we can get Joe Crede numbers out of him, and have him get hits in crucial situations, he'll be successful.

What potential does Andruw Jones have? He's met that potential, the man's in his EARLY-30's! He's moved past his prime. The best we can hope for is him salvaging something of the player he once was. He's not some bust of a prospect biding his time to break out, he's a washed up veteran with no options, but 500K for one year this late in his career.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Thunderbolt

[Balta1701]

What potential does Andruw Jones have? He's met that potential, the man's in his mid-30's!

32, going on 33 in April = mid 30's?

 

Now I'm suddenly feeling old. Thanks. (Going to go ice my knees).

[ThunderBolt]

32, going on 33 in April = mid 30's?

 

Now I'm suddenly feeling old. Thanks. (Going to go ice my knees).

Really, Captain Semantics? Fine, i'll edit the damn post, but you look out for that knee for me.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Thunderbolt

[Balta1701]

Really, Captain Semantics? Fine, i'll edit the damn post, but you look out for that knee for me.

Glad you enjoyed. It's both knees now, not just one.

 

Anyway, to make point more detailed than just the one-liner...Jones may have more mileage on his tread than most OF's since he started playing everyday CF at a very young age, but 30-32 is not typically the age where OF's start to fall off seriously, that tends to happen closer to 36. When we picked up JD, he'd just turned 31, and he had his best year with us at age 32 in 2006, for example.

 

It's possible that Jones's work ethic, that his specific injuries, that how long he's played CF will have taken more of a toll on his body than on JD and he'll just completely bomb once again like he did in LA. But I can at least find reason for hope.

[ThunderBolt]

Glad you enjoyed. It's both knees now, not just one.

 

Anyway, to make point more detailed than just the one-liner...Jones may have more mileage on his tread than most OF's since he started playing everyday CF at a very young age, but 30-32 is not typically the age where OF's start to fall off seriously, that tends to happen closer to 36. When we picked up JD, he'd just turned 31, and he had his best year with us at age 32 in 2006, for example.

 

It's possible that Jones's work ethic, that his specific injuries, that how long he's played CF will have taken more of a toll on his body than on JD and he'll just completely bomb once again like he did in LA. But I can at least find reason for hope.

The issue here is the empirical evidence that shows Jones has fallen off before the age of 33. It's pure conjecture to assume that we're going to get some kind of youth movement from him, the numbers don't add up. I'm hopeful for him, and i like him a hell of a lot more in the DH spot then i do Kotsay, but i see no reason for dramatic optimism.

[Balta1701]

The issue here is the empirical evidence that shows Jones has fallen off before the age of 33. It's pure conjecture to assume that we're going to get some kind of youth movement from him, the numbers don't add up. I'm hopeful for him, and i like him a hell of a lot more in the DH spot then i do Kotsay, but i see no reason for dramatic optimism.

Hopefully I wasn't being too dramatic there.

 

The way this offense is set up, key # 1, 2, 3 and 6 are named Carlos Quentin. Key #4 is Alex Rios. Key # 5 is Beckham. etc.

 

If we get something useful from Jones, it'll win us some games. That would have been the same with Damon. But the real question is, can we get an MVP type year from the guy who should be our offensive MVP. If he gets hurt again, we have less margin for error than we would if we'd signed someone else, but it all really turns on him again.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

The issue here is the empirical evidence that shows Jones has fallen off before the age of 33. It's pure conjecture to assume that we're going to get some kind of youth movement from him, the numbers don't add up. I'm hopeful for him, and i like him a hell of a lot more in the DH spot then i do Kotsay, but i see no reason for dramatic optimism.

In comparison to Jones' younger days it looks like he's going to bat with railroad tie. I'm not too optimistic either. I'll just go ahead and be optimistic about Putz, Rios, Quentin, Freddy, Pena, and Teahen instead.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

The worst thing Jones can do to this team is be mediocre. If he finds a time machine, great. If he sucks horribly, then that's okay too since it'll force Kenny to make an improvement. But if the Kotsay/Jones thing is just meh then Kenny will probably ride out until sometime in June before asking Mr. Brutally Honest Paul Konerko whether or not we need to improve the team.

[ptatc]

The issue here is the empirical evidence that shows Jones has fallen off before the age of 33. It's pure conjecture to assume that we're going to get some kind of youth movement from him, the numbers don't add up. I'm hopeful for him, and i like him a hell of a lot more in the DH spot then i do Kotsay, but i see no reason for dramatic optimism.

 

Could it be that he got lazy and complacent at the end of his Atlanta tenure and with the huge LA contract? It may not be physical at all. He may now realize that with going from 10 mil per year to 500K he may need to get his lazy a** moving again.

 

[ThunderBolt]

Hopefully I wasn't being too dramatic there.

 

The way this offense is set up, key # 1, 2, 3 and 6 are named Carlos Quentin. Key #4 is Alex Rios. Key # 5 is Beckham. etc.

 

If we get something useful from Jones, it'll win us some games. That would have been the same with Damon. But the real question is, can we get an MVP type year from the guy who should be our offensive MVP. If he gets hurt again, we have less margin for error than we would if we'd signed someone else, but it all really turns on him again.

Nah, Balta you’re one of the most reasonable guys here. I’m referring to the people who aren’t at all bothered by Damon not signing here, the people who really think that Andruw Jones Is going to stumble across the fountain of youth and put up 33 homers next year. I see no reason to think that after embarrassing himself on a very public stage in LA, that Jones wouldn’t give it his all to redeem himself in Texas. He didn’t and he’s running out of chances.

[ThunderBolt]

Here's two things i like about the Jones thing. "Guillen and several members of the Sox's staff were encouraged after Andruw Jones weighed in at 221 pounds - about 25 pounds lighter than last year. Jones is determined to regain playing time in center field as well as share the designated hitter duties with Mark Kotsay.:

 

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...hout-damon.html

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Here's two things i like about the Jones thing. "Guillen and several members of the Sox's staff were encouraged after Andruw Jones weighed in at 221 pounds - about 25 pounds lighter than last year. Jones is determined to regain playing time in center field as well as share the designated hitter duties with Mark Kotsay.:

 

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...hout-damon.html

 

25 is good....I was hoping for like 40, but 25 is good.

[Steve9347]

Here's two things i like about the Jones thing. "Guillen and several members of the Sox's staff were encouraged after Andruw Jones weighed in at 221 pounds - about 25 pounds lighter than last year. Jones is determined to regain playing time in center field as well as share the designated hitter duties with Mark Kotsay.:

 

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...hout-damon.html

On the same page if a "New Look Marquez Seeks Better Results" link. Come on, it's a fluff site.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

On the same page if a "New Look Marquez Seeks Better Results" link. Come on, it's a fluff site.

 

Seems like a completely accurate title. If Marquez does NOT seek better results, he will be a grocery store clerk in 2 years.

[Balta1701]

On the same page if a "New Look Marquez Seeks Better Results" link. Come on, it's a fluff site.

Thank you for making me notice that. I've been wondering for about 8 months whether or not they were going to actually put him under the knife and try to fix his elbow.

[dmbjeff]

Here's two things i like about the Jones thing. "Guillen and several members of the Sox's staff were encouraged after Andruw Jones weighed in at 221 pounds - about 25 pounds lighter than last year. Jones is determined to regain playing time in center field as well as share the designated hitter duties with Mark Kotsay.:

 

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...hout-damon.html

 

He looked like he was easily 275+ in his LAD days. So 221 is a real good sign. If he can get around on fastballs again and can lay off the offspeed stuff which he was abysmal at hitting he has the chance to have a decent season I hope. Now if only he were to get 60%+ of the DH platoon over Kotsay.

[chw42]

He looked like he was easily 275+ in his LAD days. So 221 is a real good sign. If he can get around on fastballs again and can lay off the offspeed stuff which he was abysmal at hitting he has the chance to have a decent season I hope. Now if only he were to get 60%+ of the DH platoon over Kotsay.

 

A 300 pound center fielder, now that's funny.