Garfien: Sox made serious play for Halladay

[iamshack]

Of course, if you are contending at a trade deadline...then chances are you arent looking for a 1B/DH because that was probably already in place during your nice run. Contenders tend to spend their prospects at the deadline on more pitching.

 

Although with all the instability with DHes these days, I suppose that's not necessarily always true. Or makes the point of more-suitors-now MORE true. Hm.

I think when you're talking about a player the caliber of AGon and with his current contract, he's going to attract a lot of suitors who don't simply fall into the "need a better 1b/DH" club. There will be teams that recognize a tremendous opportunity and will seek to take advantage of that.

[Quin]

I think when you're talking about a player the caliber of AGon and with his current contract, he's going to attract a lot of suitors who don't simply fall into the "need a better 1b/DH" club. There will be teams that recognize a tremendous opportunity and will seek to take advantage of that.

 

Gonzalez attracts everyone pretty much. It just seems like the Sox and Sawks would covet him the most and be willing to pay the highest price.

[witesoxfan]

Ultimately, I'm very happy Williams struck out on Halladay. The addition of Roy Halladay to this pitching staff would have been phenomenal, but I would much rather see those resources go towards a hitter. At the end of the day, Roy Halladay is only going to affect about 33 games during the season and he'll probably have about 26 quality starts (78.8%). A combination of Freddy Garcia, Dan Hudson, and whoever else will make up for about 32 starts as well. I'd say, odds are, that combination will combine for somewhere between 18-22 quality starts (56.3-68.8%). Is adding anywhere from 4-8 quality starts throughout the duration of the season worth giving up a huge package of prospects? Halladay would have made the Sox a better team, but his addition doesn't put the Sox over the top.

 

Had Williams found a way to get Floyd or Danks involved instead of solely a package of prospects, there's a bit more value in that. From what it sounds like, that's just not the case, and, at the end of the day, that would have been a terrible move.

 

Now, if you look at a hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, you figure his outcome will have a much larger effect. Not only will he be involved in more games period (which is actually an argument I don't like making, but it holds true here because the rotation is not a weakness for the club), but his isolated effect on a putrid offense would be astronomical. If Johnny Damon's addition would have added a projected 50 runs, Gonzalez has to be close to 75 or even more.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Ultimately, I'm very happy Williams struck out on Halladay. The addition of Roy Halladay to this pitching staff would have been phenomenal, but I would much rather see those resources go towards a hitter. At the end of the day, Roy Halladay is only going to affect about 33 games during the season and he'll probably have about 26 quality starts (78.8%). A combination of Freddy Garcia, Dan Hudson, and whoever else will make up for about 32 starts as well. I'd say, odds are, that combination will combine for somewhere between 18-22 quality starts (56.3-68.8%). Is adding anywhere from 4-8 quality starts throughout the duration of the season worth giving up a huge package of prospects? Halladay would have made the Sox a better team, but his addition doesn't put the Sox over the top.

 

I don't think that's a fair way at looking at it because quality start =/= quality start. A quality start for Halladay is more likely to be 8 innings, 2-3 runs, while a quality start for Garcia/Hudson is more likely to be 7 IP, 3-4 runs.

 

Just like two pitchers may have the same win totals does not mean their wins were valued the same.

[witesoxfan]

I don't think that's a fair way at looking at it because quality start =/= quality start. A quality start for Halladay is more likely to be 8 innings, 2-3 runs, while a quality start for Garcia/Hudson is more likely to be 7 IP, 3-4 runs.

 

Just like two pitchers may have the same win totals does not mean their wins were valued the same.

 

Obviously not, it's a very simplistic way to look at it. The point I was trying to make was that I simply don't think adding Halladay helps the Sox that much. I mentioned it on here in the offseason when the thought of picking up Halladay came up, but the Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns states that as you continue to add factors of production, the increases in total production will become smaller. The Sox currently have 4 starting pitchers capable of putting up an ERA of 3.50 or better, and 2 others who are likely capable of putting up an ERA in the 4.50 range, and all 6 of them could realistically put up better numbers than that too (though the boundaries I've given them are very fair). What does adding a pitcher who puts up an ERA of 3.00 really add to the club? I mean, last year, the pitching staff had the 2nd best ERA in the AL at 4.14, and that pitching staff wasn't nearly as good as the pitching staff is now (they went into the season with Contreras and Colon at the back end of the rotation and a bullpen that I would say was far less talented). I think it's safe to assume that the pitching staff this year can put up atleast a 4.00 ERA...is adding Roy Halladay and bringing that number down to 3.90 or 3.80 really going to have a huge effect on this team?

 

Sure, it'd be cool, but wouldn't it also be a bit embarrassing if they did have the best rotation of the past 25 years and missed the playoffs because they didn't have an offense?

Edited February 23, 2010 by witesoxfan

[SoxAce]

Loved KW's face speaking about it on CTL/Sportsnite earlier..

 

I was thinking I wouldn't care about the rotating DH if we had that rotation but wite is right.. better served we struck out on Roy. Plus, I still don't completely trust Freddy, and think Hudson will have a bigger role with us than most people here think.

 

The thing I found interesting is that Garfien said KW actually told him, "they got him" but the sox didn't have the money to give him an extension so they didn't finalize it.

Edited February 23, 2010 by SoxAce

[greg775]

Interesting they keep trying to get stud starters, but like some have said, what's the aversion to improving the lineup?

I guess KW and Oz can say "I told you so" if and when Omar, Rios, Pierre, Kotsay and Jones excel this year.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Interesting they keep trying to get stud starters, but like some have said, what's the aversion to improving the lineup?

I guess KW and Oz can say "I told you so" if and when Omar, Rios, Pierre, Kotsay and Jones excel this year.

 

I don't read they almost got Halladay as "They didn't try to get a hitter". All it means it what is says, we almost got Halladay. KW could have been in talks to get Carl Crawford too, but that's not as big as a headliner as Halladay, and maybe we didn't hear about a possible Crawford deal like we did the Halladay deal.

[iamshack]

I don't read they almost got Halladay as "They didn't try to get a hitter". All it means it what is says, we almost got Halladay. KW could have been in talks to get Carl Crawford too, but that's not as big as a headliner as Halladay, and maybe we didn't hear about a possible Crawford deal like we did the Halladay deal.

I think the inference is that if they had acquired Halladay, most of our resources would have been used to acquire him, leaving little left with which to acquire an offensive player.

[caulfield12]

After 2006, all the talk was about having the most expensive rotation in the major leagues.

 

At that point, I think it was around $55 million, something in that range.

 

You had Buehrle, Contreras, Garcia, Garland, Vazquez and McCarthy, who would be traded for Danks...the Garcia/Floyd move was the other one that really saved KW's a--.

 

I agree with the diminishing returns idea...heck, KW also did too, he dealt Javier away in order to create payroll flexibility AND simply due to the fact that he thought the back end of the rotation could sort of hold up enough to justify the move.

 

We really need a premier offensive player to get us over the hump and give us a much better opportunity of making the playoffs and going deep...the question is which players can KW afford to part with and still not impact the future TOO adversely.

 

Beckham, Ramirez, Danks, Floyd, Thornton, Putz (if healthy), Quentin (maybe)...have the most value to other clubs, but they do to the Sox, too.

 

If you trade away Flowers, that leaves no replacement for an aging AJ. One of the keys with Flowers is that you insert a pretty big bat at a position that's more statistically anemic than any other on the field. That leaves Hudson, Danks, Mitchell, Viciedo, Morel, CJ, Shelby, Miguel Gonzalez, Santeliz et al to get a deal done. They would really have to gut at least 40% of the farm system, like the Swisher trade TIMES 2.

 

If I was KW, I wouldn't be sleeping easily right now...and I would be even more worried about doing nothing about the DH situation, because the longer he waits, the more expensive the solution. I'm not buying that he can wait for a player to be waived out of ST and strike gold...at best, we'll get someone like Jayson Nix again.

Edited February 23, 2010 by caulfield12

[LittleHurt05]

Phil Rogers take on it, doubts how close it was to actually happening. I think we could have found the prospects to trade, but no way we do it for a one-year rental and we weren't gonna re-sign him to an extension either.

 

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...r-halladay.html

 

1. Ken Williams dropped a nice nugget on Comcast's Chuck Garfien, hinting that he worked to try to trade for Roy Halladay over the winter. He said the potential deal "may have given us a chance to have the best rotation maybe in the history of the game'' -- a nice bit of hyperbole about a non-event.

 

The Blue Jays wound up with three blue-chip prospects for Halladay -- pitcher Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis D'Arnaud and position-challenged hitter Brett Wallace. That price translates to Tyler Flowers, Daniel Hudson and third baseman Brent Morel from the White Sox, and they might have had to add a fourth or even fifth player because Hudson isn't generally valued as highly as Drabek.

 

Then there's the question of money. With Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd signed long-term, Halladay (who specifically forced his way to Philadelphia) probably would have been a one-year rental at his 2010 salary of $15.75 million. The White Sox didn't have that kind of money to spend after adding Peavy and Alex Rios last season. But, hey, even a GM can dream.

[witesoxfan]

After 2006, all the talk was about having the most expensive rotation in the major leagues.

 

At that point, I think it was around $55 million, something in that range.

 

You had Buehrle, Contreras, Garcia, Garland, Vazquez and McCarthy, who would be traded for Danks...the Garcia/Floyd move was the other one that really saved KW's a--.

 

I agree with the diminishing returns idea...heck, KW also did too, he dealt Javier away in order to create payroll flexibility AND simply due to the fact that he thought the back end of the rotation could sort of hold up enough to justify the move.

We really need a premier offensive player to get us over the hump and give us a much better opportunity of making the playoffs and going deep...the question is which players can KW afford to part with and still not impact the future TOO adversely.

 

Beckham, Ramirez, Danks, Floyd, Thornton, Putz (if healthy), Quentin (maybe)...have the most value to other clubs, but they do to the Sox, too.

 

If you trade away Flowers, that leaves no replacement for an aging AJ. One of the keys with Flowers is that you insert a pretty big bat at a position that's more statistically anemic than any other on the field. That leaves Hudson, Danks, Mitchell, Viciedo, Morel, CJ, Shelby, Miguel Gonzalez, Santeliz et al to get a deal done. They would really have to gut at least 40% of the farm system, like the Swisher trade TIMES 2.

 

If I was KW, I wouldn't be sleeping easily right now...and I would be even more worried about doing nothing about the DH situation, because the longer he waits, the more expensive the solution. I'm not buying that he can wait for a player to be waived out of ST and strike gold...at best, we'll get someone like Jayson Nix again.

 

I would say that had to do with payroll flexibility, Vazquez being worse than mediocre for 2 of his 3 years in Chicago, and his inability to perform in big games. Neither Ozzie nor Williams could count on Vazquez to do much of anything anymore, and considering they were able to get good value out of him, his move was easy to make.

[southsidepride15]

Plain and simply, this is not a good offense. They'll score a few runs, because there's still some power and some good hitters in the lineup, but I think the only slam dunk for a hitter that is going to have a good season is Beckham. Pierzynski and Konerko are both a year older, Quentin, Ramirez, and Teahen were all mediocre last year, Rios is coming off of a horrendous season, Pierre has never been a great hitter to begin with, and I don't think anyone knows what can be expected out of Kotsay and Jones at this point.

 

As of this moment, there's a lot that can go right with this squad, but there's a lot that can go wrong. With the rotation they have, I'd say they can't lose 90 games, and as such, I think the worst they can probably do is 74 wins, and I'd say the absolute best is around 100 wins (and thats with virtually everything going according to plan). I'm expecting anywhere between 84-88 wins with the current roster.

 

You guys have no clue what this offense is capable of. Are we going to rip through the league?? No. Do we still play in a hitter friendly park against a division that is sub par? Yes. These guys are major league baseball players....they will figure out a way to produce without the almighty A-Gon. Have some frickin faith!!

 

[ThunderBolt]

You guys have no clue what this offense is capable of.

Wait we don't? And you do? Wow, you learn something new every day. Where have you been all my life? Screw, my opinions, screw the pundits, screw the stats, things are going to work out regardless, of whether it's likely or not. Your logic is flawless.

Edited February 23, 2010 by Thunderbolt

[RockRaines]

You guys have no clue what this offense is capable of. Are we going to rip through the league?? No. Do we still play in a hitter friendly park against a division that is sub par? Yes. These guys are major league baseball players....they will figure out a way to produce without the almighty A-Gon. Have some frickin faith!!

They've been trying to get AGON for over a season now, including this offseason. I wouldnt be surprised to see us make a huge play for him during this season.

[southsider2k5]

Phil Rogers take on it, doubts how close it was to actually happening. I think we could have found the prospects to trade, but no way we do it for a one-year rental and we weren't gonna re-sign him to an extension either.

 

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...r-halladay.html

 

I'm betting money that the deal didn't happen not because of who Kenny offered, but because they couldn't find anyone to take one of our big salaries (PK I am looking at you) to free up the needed cash.

[southsidepride15]

Wait we don't? And you do? Wow, you learn something new every day. Where have you been all my life? Screw, my opinions, screw the pundits, screw the stats, things are going to work out regardless, of whether it's likely or not. Your logic is flawless.

 

No, everyone's intitled to an opinion. I just get so sick of the negativity on here. I mean, I know that's what this site is famous for but this is the time of year for optimism.... not the time to cry about that fact that we didn't land the best left handed hitter in baseball. Rios is king, Kotsay is clutch, and Q and Konerko will be back with monster numbers. At least that's what I've figured out by using my flawless logic.

[elrockinMT]

Sounds real exciting, but unless you can get er done then there is no reason to get TOO excited

[greg775]

don't read they almost got Halladay as "They didn't try to get a hitter". All it means it what is says, we almost got Halladay. KW could have been in talks to get Carl Crawford too, but that's not as big as a headliner as Halladay, and maybe we didn't hear about a possible Crawford deal like we did the Halladay deal.

 

That does make sense. KW may have pursued some bats as well.

[bmags]

Yeah, that would be great that KW tried to get hitters too, but in the end we didn't acquired maybe one average bat (teahan). So...i'm not going to give accolades for trying really hard, or else i'll go give jerry krause a great big hug for that 2000 free agent offseason.

[witesoxfan]

No, everyone's intitled to an opinion. I just get so sick of the negativity on here. I mean, I know that's what this site is famous for but this is the time of year for optimism.... not the time to cry about that fact that we didn't land the best left handed hitter in baseball. Rios is king, Kotsay is clutch, and Q and Konerko will be back with monster numbers. At least that's what I've figured out by using my flawless logic.

 

I really don't see where the negativity was in my post. I don't think it's a crime to look at things objectively.

[caulfield12]

If you want the "group think" positivism, you might prefer other Sox message boards, IMO.

 

Trust me, that's worse than anything you see here. At least this site isn't NEARLY as filtered or controlling of its posters, as long as they stay fairly civil and back up their arguments with substance and not just personal attacks.

Edited February 24, 2010 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

You guys have no clue what this offense is capable of. Are we going to rip through the league?? No. Do we still play in a hitter friendly park against a division that is sub par? Yes. These guys are major league baseball players....they will figure out a way to produce without the almighty A-Gon. Have some frickin faith!!

 

And you could have said that going into 2000 or 2005, too.

 

All you can do is look at the back of the baseball cards and ages/career paths and make projections. Baseball is not an exact science...in 2006, on paper, we looked great and that team fell apart.

 

In 2008, nobody expected a whole lot and we overachieved. Last year, we had a lot of talent but very little team cohesiveness or identity.

 

Nobody said we have to have A-Gon or Pujols, etc., or really expects those types of trades to materialize. On the other hand, we are still in the American League, not the NL West. Last year, we had very good pitching and the offense didn't exactly figure things out, even though they are all professionals. So is Greg Walker. Please tell me you weren't around last year telling everyone to have faith in Brian Anderson, Corky Miller, Josh Fields, DeWayne Wise, Jerry Owens, B. Lillibridge, Williams, etc.? It's pretty obvious there was a talent gap in the last 5-7 spots on the roster last year, as compared to years past.

 

As Ozzie always says, great players look managers look very very smart, and the opposite holds equally as true.

 

 

[ThunderBolt]

If you want the "group think" positivism, you might prefer other Sox message boards, IMO.

 

Trust me, that's worse than anything you see here. At least this site isn't NEARLY as filtered or controlling of its posters, as long as they stay fairly civil and back up their arguments with substance and not just personal attacks.

It's crazy what's happening on the other big SOX board. There's a legion of blind optimists pouncing on any detractors. At least we have decent, reasoned debates here.

Edited February 24, 2010 by Thunderbolt

[caulfield12]

It's crazy what's happening on the other big SOX board. There's a legion of blind optimists pouncing on any detractors. At least we have decent, reasoned debates here.

 

Everyone who doesn't kiss a-- with the moderators or defer to their every judgment about the world (or White Sox) is quickly eviscerated or labelled a "dark cloud."

 

 

Edited February 24, 2010 by caulfield12