Baseball America top 100

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Tyler Flowers will move up that list so fast!

 

It is good to see Mitchell so high up there. Last year was his first year in the minors and it sounds like he is making noise.

 

I am very suprised that Mitchell was ranked this high considering he was injured last year. I LOVE his OBP though. 23 walks in 34 games is amazing for a speed guy. If Mitchell can walk 100 times in a 162 game season, then he could be a guy who will swipe 50+ bags because that is a LOT of times being on first base.

[southsider2k5]

I am very suprised that Mitchell was ranked this high considering he was injured last year. I LOVE his OBP though. 23 walks in 34 games is amazing for a speed guy. If Mitchell can walk 100 times in a 162 game season, then he could be a guy who will swipe 50+ bags because that is a LOT of times being on first base.

 

It will be interesting to see how he works his walks. Is he a guy that just takes a lot of pitches, ala Nick Swisher, who also takes a lot of strikes, or is he a guy with a real eye for the zone.

[iamshack]

It will be interesting to see how he works his walks. Is he a guy that just takes a lot of pitches, ala Nick Swisher, who also takes a lot of strikes, or is he a guy with a real eye for the zone.

I remember reading in some of the scouting reports that he did take pitches to his own detriment at times.

[witesoxfan]

I remember reading in some of the scouting reports that he did take pitches to his own detriment at times.

 

I remember hearing that as well, and the Sox want him to become more aggressive at the plate this season. I'm not overly excited about his line, but that's mainly because it's just a very small sample. I'm excited to see what kind of numbers he can put up this season, and I do like that he is willing to work a count. If he can become a Tony Phillips type of hitter, though hopefully more successful on the basepaths (because a 60.8% SB% is just not good) I would be ecstatic.

Edited February 26, 2010 by witesoxfan

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

It will be interesting to see how he works his walks. Is he a guy that just takes a lot of pitches, ala Nick Swisher, who also takes a lot of strikes, or is he a guy with a real eye for the zone.

 

Like Iamshack said, he does seem to be taking too many pitches. And now that I think about it, when I saw him play for LSU in the CWS, it seemed he would rather take every pitch and hope for a walk than have to swing the bat. I don't mind that if he is drawing walks though. Even if pitchers get wise of it and start throwing right down the middle, he at least has the skill to just let it rip and crush the ball for a HR, or at least hit the gaps for a 2B or 3B.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I remember hearing that as well, and the Sox want him to become more aggressive at the plate this season. I'm not overly excited about his line, but that's mainly because it's just a very small sample. I'm excited to see what kind of numbers he can put up this season, and I do like that he is willing to work a count. If he can become a Tony Phillips type of hitter, though hopefully more successful on the basepaths (because a 60.8% SB% is just not good) I would be ecstatic.

 

As optimistic as this sounds, I likened him to Carl Crawford when i saw him with LSU, and Orel Hershiser said the same thing. He has the same skillset as Crawford, while looking a lot like crawford in body type and size as well. Obviously that would spectacular if he turned into Crawford, but at this point he looks pretty good.

 

Is he starting in A+, or do you guys think AA? I think AA is where he will start, and if not, he will be there before the summer.

[southsider2k5]

As optimistic as this sounds, I likened him to Carl Crawford when i saw him with LSU, and Orel Hershiser said the same thing. He has the same skillset as Crawford, while looking a lot like crawford in body type and size as well. Obviously that would spectacular if he turned into Crawford, but at this point he looks pretty good.

 

Is he starting in A+, or do you guys think AA? I think AA is where he will start, and if not, he will be there before the summer.

 

If we get anything close to Carl Crawford out of Mitchell, I will be eternally thrilled.

[danman31]

Is he starting in A+, or do you guys think AA? I think AA is where he will start, and if not, he will be there before the summer.

I have no insider knowledge on this, but I'd be pretty surprised if he started in AA. That seems too fast.

[Quin]

Is he starting in A+, or do you guys think AA? I think AA is where he will start, and if not, he will be there before the summer.

 

If he's in AA, then he's taking the Gordon Beckham/Dan Hudson Quick Route to the Majors.

 

 

[SoxAce]

I have no insider knowledge on this, but I'd be pretty surprised if he started in AA. That seems too fast.

 

There's no way he starts off in AA.. no chance. At best, he might start at W-S and even that is a question mark.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

There's no way he starts off in AA.. no chance. At best, he might start at W-S and even that is a question mark.

 

I don't see any chance of him repeating at Kanny. He hit .300 there with a .417 OBP and .850 OPS in his 34 games there. I think he is basically passed that league. I think W-S is the obvious choice, but I think there is an outside chance he starts in AA. I guess it also might depend on Jordan Danks placing too. If Danks is in AAA, I bet Mitchell goes to AA, and obvious if Danks goes back to AA, then Mitchell will be in A+ at W-S.

 

 

I mean, Danks is clearly a lesser prospect in the system, and he was able to go from Kanny to W-S in 10 games, and then only 30 more games to go from W-S to Birmingham. I certainly would not be surprised to see Mitchell in AA, but again, I think it depends on Danks' location.

[SoxAce]

I don't see any chance of him repeating at Kanny. He hit .300 there with a .417 OBP and .850 OPS in his 34 games there. I think he is basically passed that league. I think W-S is the obvious choice, but I think there is an outside chance he starts in AA. I guess it also might depend on Jordan Danks placing too. If Danks is in AAA, I bet Mitchell goes to AA, and obvious if Danks goes back to AA, then Mitchell will be in A+ at W-S.

 

It depends how the sox feel he's progressing. Just because you rake a small smaple size in 34 games, doesn't mean your getting promoted. Look at Brandon Allen for example. Dude put up a .275/.358/.615/.972 line in AA in 43 games. Sox obviously felt he needed more time so he spent about a third to half the year in AA before getting promoted. Hell Dexter Carter was unconscious in low A (actually had better numbers at the time than Hudson) but he stayed in low A to further develop his pitches whereas Hudson got the promotion since he was further along in development. Like I said, it depends how he farm directors feel a prospect is ready to make the jump. Hell some guys might only put up average lines in a league (low BABIP/unlucky but excellent discipline, whatever it is), but get promoted and rake. If he gets the call to W-S, then that means the sox feel Mitchell is ready. If he stays at low A, the sox feel he needs to work on/tweek some things. (notably his swing/adjustment to CF, hitting left handers, etc..)

Edited February 26, 2010 by SoxAce

[Ozzie Ball]

I don't see any chance of him repeating at Kanny. He hit .300 there with a .417 OBP and .850 OPS in his 34 games there. I think he is basically passed that league. I think W-S is the obvious choice, but I think there is an outside chance he starts in AA.

He also had a .453! BABIP and a 34.8! K%. He was a combination of very lucky and bad and it leaves everything thinking that he was actually good. The BB% was very good (16.5%), but that's it.

 

Luck adjusted line?

.239/.371/.361.

[southsider2k5]

If he's in AA, then he's taking the Gordon Beckham/Dan Hudson Quick Route to the Majors.

 

And to me, that is the biggest indicator that he will NOT start off in Bham. Mitchell is far from a finished product, and could use the 1000 ABs of a couple+ minor league seasons.

[Balta1701]

And to me, that is the biggest indicator that he will NOT start off in Bham. Mitchell is far from a finished product, and could use the 1000 ABs of a couple+ minor league seasons.

IF they want to keep both him and D2: the Mighty Danks playing CF, then he has to start off at A-Ball unless they're bumping D2: the Mighty Danks up to AAA.

[southsider2k5]

IF they want to keep both him and D2: the Mighty Danks playing CF, then he has to start off at A-Ball unless they're bumping D2: the Mighty Danks up to AAA.

 

The way that Danks has been talked about by the organization, I wouldn't be surprised if he was at AAA. Mitchell is no where close to that level of a finished product from what the reports say.

[Balta1701]

The way that Danks has been talked about by the organization, I wouldn't be surprised if he was at AAA. Mitchell is no where close to that level of a finished product from what the reports say.

I'd be very surprised if they put him in AAA to start the season. (Not based on any inside knowledge, just based on where he was last year).

[scenario]

He also had a .453! BABIP and a 34.8! K%. He was a combination of very lucky and bad and it leaves everything thinking that he was actually good. The BB% was very good (16.5%), but that's it.

 

Luck adjusted line?

.239/.371/.361.

 

All those things may be true... but he's still probably going to start the season in Winston-Salem.

 

Besides, I don't think BABIP has much validity/weight in the low minors.

 

 

[GoodAsGould]

Unless he has a very miserable spring Id imagine Mitchell would start the season in high A and imo could spend the entire season there even if he is having success.

[Ozzie Ball]

Besides, I don't think BABIP has much validity/weight in the low minors.

More or less validity than batting average?

 

If less validity, how do you figure?

[danman31]

He also had a .453! BABIP and a 34.8! K%. He was a combination of very lucky and bad and it leaves everything thinking that he was actually good. The BB% was very good (16.5%), but that's it.

 

Luck adjusted line?

.239/.371/.361.

It is interesting seeing Mitchell go from a guy that was somewhat off the draft radar, then the Sox took him late 1st and people said that was where he belonged. Suddenly he is a near-consensus top 100 prospect. I'm not sure how that happened. Maybe it was his great CWS showing, maybe he just went unnoticed for so long. I'm not saying he isn't a very good prospect with big upside, but it seems like perception changed simply by Mitchell 'growing on' some.

 

That said, I think you're too harsh. I would expect his BABIP to be a little higher than normal throughout his career due to his speed. Throw in weaker defenses in low-A and you have two reasons to expect a higher BABIP. So, yes, it appears he still got a little lucky and yes, he struck out too much. However, I don't think you can say he should have hit .240.

[scenario]

More or less validity than batting average?

 

If less validity, how do you figure?

 

IMO, advanced stats are not particularly useful for evaluating players below the AA level.

There are just too many variables (inconsistencies in competition, talent, ballparks, small samples, etc. etc.) to determine whether the info they provide is valid.

 

My rule of thumb...

Below AA... tools and player development evaluations >>> stats.

AA and higher... stats are increasingly useful for evaluations and comparisons.

Edited February 26, 2010 by scenario

[Ozzie Ball]

That said, I think you're too harsh. I would expect his BABIP to be a little higher than normal throughout his career due to his speed. Throw in weaker defenses in low-A and you have two reasons to expect a higher BABIP. So, yes, it appears he still got a little lucky and yes, he struck out too much. However, I don't think you can say he should have hit .240.

That luck adjusted line regressed his BABIP to .361, so it is taking into account the likelihood that Mitchell with have significantly above average BABIP (.330-.340 range), with extra adjustment for poor defense. His strikeout rate was just that bad, and obviously it was a small sample size, but if Mitchell does start at Birmingham he could fall flat on his face.

[Ozzie Ball]

IMO, advanced stats are not particularly useful for evaluating players below the AA level.

There are just too many variables (inconsistencies in competition, talent, ballparks, small samples, etc. etc.) to determine whether the info they provide is valid.

 

My rule of thumb...

Below AA... tools and player development evaluations >>> stats.

AA and higher... stats are increasingly useful for evaluations and comparisons.

I think stats have a place at basically every pro level, particularly full season leagues. It would be foolish to rely on them solely, of course, especially for the younger, lesser developed players. I think putting all of your emphasis on scouting is a little naive, it's not like scouting is a surefire art form after all. A healthy mix of the two is the way to go in my opinion.

[scenario]

Nothing wrong with applying stats appropriately. (By the way, I'm a finance digithead math junkie by career, so I am in no way an anti-stats guy.) It's just that I believe using advanced stats in the lower minors as the basis for making decisions on players is not a good idea (for the reasons I mentioned in my last post).

 

For example...

Let's look at the player situation we're discussing...

Your review of Mitchell's low A-ball stats were leading you to suggest he should probably repeat at Kanny.

Soon after, we're hearing how he's probably going to be starting the season in AA.

Would the stats have supported that decision? Obviously not.

Should we conclude the team is making a mistake? Dunno...

But I think it's likely that the Sox decided his skills/tools are ready for AA competition... regardless of what his low A-ball numbers might suggest.

 

My point is simply that the same logic would (and should) hold true in most cases with players below the AA level.

Edited February 26, 2010 by scenario