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Joe Nathan likely out for the season


Balta1701

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Crediting BWJ in the catch-all for this. Link.

Just got out of the Twins clubhouse, where Joe Nathan, Ron Gardenhire and team trainers revealed that Nathan has a torn UCL. Your UCL, of course, is your ulnar collateral ligament, which is the ligament that made Tommy John famous and makes everyone else cringe. They're not certain if it's a full tear or a partial tear -- Gardenhire called it "significant" -- and Gardenhire says it's the sort of thing you can't tell until you get in and do surgery. Tommy John surgery.

 

Will they do surgery? Right now, they're taking a wait and see approach. The plan is to give Nathan's arm 2-3 weeks to see if the pain dies down. If so, and if he can pitch with it, he'll do what he can to avoid surgery and try to pitch through the pain. Gardenhire says it's totally Nathan's decision.

 

My strong sense from everyone's body language and mood is that they're pessimistic and surgery is going to happen. Nathan said that it was "not the news I wanted to hear." He said that on the plane on the way back to Florida he was particularly bummed considering how much the Twins did to improve the team this offseason, the new stadium and all of that.

 

As for replacements, Gardenhire was asked if the team would look in-house. Gardenhire said "We got all kinds of arms out there. What, we got 27, 28 guys with arms, so we'll find someone." He wouldn't say who it would be, but the sense is that the team will look in-house for a solution at closer.

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Has there ever been real, legit work that can qualify the number of wins that having an exemplary closer adds to your team? I can see this being the difference between a 92 and an 87 win team easily, especially if they move one of their middle relief guys to closer, get an average performance out of that guy, but then have weaker middle relief.

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Yesterday on Buster Olney's blog, he compared Nathan's numbers to Mariano's over the last six years. Shows you just how f***ing good the guy has been.

 

Nathan Rivera

Saves 246 243

Save % 90.8 93.1

ERA 1.87 1.90

K/9 11.1 8.7

Opp. BA .182 .206

WHIP .093 .094

 

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QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 10:15 AM)
They always seem to be able to plug in some no-namer into a hole and it works out for them.

But there have been 1 or 2 guys that they haven't been able to replace at all. Santana leads that list.

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This doesn't change that much. I’m not trying to make this issue a referendum on my opinions of the closer position, but I fail to see how losing a closer accounts for the large gap in offense between the two teams. This is good news for us, just not the biggest news we could have hoped for.

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QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 10:10 AM)
This doesn't change that much. I’m not trying to make this issue a referendum on my opinions of the closer position, but I fail to see how losing a closer accounts for the large gap in offense between the two teams. This is good news for us, just not the biggest news we could have hoped for.

Yeah, well you just turned it into one.

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It seems that all of my opinions have already been stated, but I have no problem repeating them. This is very good news for the White Sox since Nathan has been the best closer in baseball for a while, although you never like to see this happen to such a (seemingly) good guy. I had no idea Nathan was that old. And if any team can throw in some nobody and not lose a step, it's the Twins.

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QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 10:10 AM)
This doesn't change that much. I’m not trying to make this issue a referendum on my opinions of the closer position, but I fail to see how losing a closer accounts for the large gap in offense between the two teams. This is good news for us, just not the biggest news we could have hoped for.

Well if moves everyone in the bullpen up one inning and inserts an unproven for arguably the best closer in baseball. Matt G. may have had a great year last year, but closing and relieving in the 7th are so radically different. Rauch is a stiff who gives up hits and doesn't K people like Nathan. Outside of the M&M brothers, he is the the next guy they could not afford to lose. I think this is a HUGE injury, not just what you will see on the field in lack of results from the Twins' bullpen, but also the blow mentally it does to the team knowing the 9th is locked down.

Edited by maggsmaggs
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QUOTE (Kalapse @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 11:18 AM)
Yeah, well you just turned it into one.

It doesn't have to be anything more then me stating my opinions on this piece of news. I had to preface my opinion before i get accused of saying that Nathan isn't a great pitcher, he is. Only as a rule, i find his position in the pen to be overvalued. That goes for every other closer in the league.

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QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 10:24 AM)
It seems that all of my opinions have already been stated, but I have no problem repeating them. This is very good news for the White Sox since Nathan has been the best closer in baseball for a while, although you never like to see this happen to such a (seemingly) good guy. I had no idea Nathan was that old. And if any team can throw in some nobody and not lose a step, it's the Twins.

One of, one of. Mo has held the crown for quite some time and still does.

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QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 10:10 AM)
This doesn't change that much. I’m not trying to make this issue a referendum on my opinions of the closer position, but I fail to see how losing a closer accounts for the large gap in offense between the two teams. This is good news for us, just not the biggest news we could have hoped for.

 

Probably because you are only looking at it from one point of view. Offense

 

Most managers put the closer in the 9th innings of close games. It doesn't mattter if the game is 2-1 because of their high powered offense. If Nathan's replacement loses 5 more games, our offense differential doesn't matter because they lost 5 more games. They still lose that many more games. Most closers get about 40 chances in close games. These are more chances to lose games.

 

 

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 11:41 AM)
Its highly unlikely that any plug-in will perform at the level Nathan does. And having a solid closer does indeed make some difference, though maybe only a couple or three games. Maybe more.

I suppose it could cause a lot of commotion in their bullpen, attempting to find the correct replacement, thrusting guys into more advanced roles, the effects of certain guys failing in those more advanced roles, etc.

 

The ramifications could be far and wide, or they may be minimal. Just depends on if they go out and get someone or how the guys they have there handle it.

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 11:47 AM)
Probably because you are only looking at it from one point of view. Offense

 

Most managers put the closer in the 9th innings of close games. It doesn't mattter if the game is 2-1 because of their high powered offense. If Nathan's replacement loses 5 more games, our offense differential doesn't matter because they lost 5 more games. They still lose that many more games. Most closers get about 40 chances in close games. These are more chances to lose games.

Losing Nathan allows them to shift a guy like Rauch or Guerrier into the closers spot, while letting another one of their 5th starter candidates to make the team. Rauch and Guerrier are by no means Nathan-esque, but they are pitchers who can be inserted into the role and trusted to produce at least league-average results out of the closers role. Their obligation will be to usually pitch one inning a performance, my understanding has always been that one inning shouldn't be too much to ask of any pitcher. Since his shift to the bullpen Nathan has averaged 63.375 innings per year, innings that can be assumed by other members of the pen. It’s unlikely the Twins will get equivalent production, but that’s not fatal. Nathan was a great pitcher, but greatness is not a requirement for the closer’s spot. Losing Nathan might cost them a couple solid performances in the 9th, but as a rule: a closer’s job varies in it’s important on a nightly basis, often with the more important innings falling to the set-up-man. The Twins will take a hit here, but that’s not enough to rule them out of the race. I hope that didn’t’ seem like a lecture, I just needed to put the case out their without leaving anything out.

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Bad news for Nathan, he has been great for so many years now but I am tired of seeing him shut the door on us and other teams every time he comes in.

 

This would put a nice little dent in their bullpen if he really is out for the season.

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