Thoughts of AJP batting 5th?

[joeynach]

Besides, you'd want Crede.

 

If you read Baseball Between the Numbers, by Baseball Prospectus, they devote a whole chapter of analyzed statistical information to clutchness. The result, there is no single player you can label clutch, in fact clutchness is statistical myth.

[Kalapse]

If you read Baseball Between the Numbers, by Baseball Prospectus, they devote a whole chapter of analyzed statistical information to clutchness. The result, there is no single player you can label clutch, in fact clutchness is statistical myth.

Good luck trying to convince anyone that this is the case. Believe me, I've tried with very little success.

[qwerty]

If you read Baseball Between the Numbers, by Baseball Prospectus, they devote a whole chapter of analyzed statistical information to clutchness. The result, there is no single player you can label clutch, in fact clutchness is statistical myth.

 

Nate silver, the creator of PECOTA and and main man behind the scenes at baseball prospectus has a different view. This article and the ones below has to be read in it's entirety to grasp them.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...rs/ortiz/060405

 

Good luck trying to convince anyone that this is the case. Believe me, I've tried with very little success.

 

Studies in the past vastly paled in comparison (though they should still most definitely be taken into consideration) The last five year to seven years studies have gotten gradually better and much more in depth. It's terrific really.

 

Both of these are fairly recent by tango.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...he-line-i-want/

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...olor-of-clutch/

 

Cyril Morong's clutch hitting link compilation... both sides of the argument.

 

Silver's and tango's conclusions sum it up pretty nicely, as far as i am concerned. But there will always be people on both sides of the fence. Nothing can be done about that.

 

Sorta off topic... in this link is ''underestimating the fog'' by bill james, i think it is a must read for most anyone due to the simplicity and wealth of information it provides.

 

http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.pdf

Edited March 19, 2010 by qwerty

[kitekrazy]

How do you get an RBI when no one's on base? I dont know that your overall thinking is wrong, but citing solely a total # of RBIs doesnt prove much of anything. That #'s contingent on what people in front of you are doing.

 

Having Konerko or Thome on 1st in some case even 2nd is not much different than having no one on base.

 

[chw42]

I think clutchness should be about how much WPA (win probability added) you add for your team. The more of that you have, the more it means that you got big hits and drove in big runs when it really mattered late in games. It could also mean that you just gave your team huge leads before that. Either way, you're doing your job.

Edited March 19, 2010 by chw42

[WCSox]

The Rios acquisition just looks like he was targeted to be the #5 hitter. A guy thats got mid 20 HR pop, can drive in 85+ runs, hit for extra base hits, and when doing performing normally will hit .280-.285. That seems like a perfect hitter behind CQ and Konerko to me to provide consistent run production. The key word is consistent, something that hes got trouble with.

 

In his two best years, Rios would've had a good enough OBP to be legit leadoff guy, though I completely agree that his slugging ability makes him a better fit to hit somewhere other than leadoff. If Beckham develops as expected, we might see Rios hit 2nd with Beckham moving to 3rd and Quentin to 4th. But for now, I agree that he's a middle-of-the-lineup guy.

 

Nate silver, the creator of PECOTA and and main man behind the scenes at baseball prospectus has a different view. This article and the ones below has to be read in it's entirety to grasp them.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...rs/ortiz/060405

 

I would never argue in favor of some sort of "clutchness" statistic. However, it seems pretty obvious to me that some players (and people, in general) perform better in high-pressure situations than others. Michael Jordan and Javy Vazquez are good examples of these two extremes.