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Say hey, It's Kotsay


greg775

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QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 24, 2010 -> 11:48 PM)
Kotsay could be batting 7th and Pierre 9th, and I would still say the bottom of our order is weak. I will also predict that if Ozzie tries to play Kotsay 4 times a week, he will be on the DL for an extended period.

 

Here's hoping.

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Vizquel's going to get far too much playing time. It's shocking to me what our lineup might look like.

 

Yeah, I would think a sane person would realize we are going to have a lot more awful offensive games this year than we did a year ago. Playing Pierre, Kotsay and Omar a lot sounds pretty iffy even in spring training. I'm scared to think of the possible results when the games start for good. Repeat after me 20 times: "our pitching is so good all this stuff won't matter; our pitching is so good all this stuff won't matter."

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QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 24, 2010 -> 09:48 PM)
Kotsay could be batting 7th and Pierre 9th, and I would still say the bottom of our order is weak. I will also predict that if Ozzie tries to play Kotsay 4 times a week, he will be on the DL for an extended period.

 

Are you serious? Not sure about Kotsay. But I'd love it if Pierre were the #9 hitter. You wouldn't find too many better #9 hitters in baseball.

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Mar 24, 2010 -> 11:51 PM)
Yeah, I would think a sane person would realize we are going to have a lot more awful offensive games this year than we did a year ago. Playing Pierre, Kotsay and Omar a lot sounds pretty iffy even in spring training. I'm scared to think of the possible results when the games start for good. Repeat after me 20 times: "our pitching is so good all this stuff won't matter; our pitching is so good all this stuff won't matter."

Disagree. And I'm pretty sane. Welllllllll............................disagree, anyway.

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Any lineup that has Kotsay hitting 3rd and Quentin not hitting 3rd is flawed. This has more to due with what side of the plate Kotsay bats with, and Ozzies obsession with LRLRLRLR lineups.

 

The idea that Ozzie thinking about trotting out Vizquel against lefties as the primary leadoff hitter is also all sorts of awesome. That sexy .305 OBP against lefties over the last few years should make the Erstad leadoff fiasco look like a juggernaut of offense. Its almost like he picks this crap randomly out of a hat or something.

 

Edited by southsideirish71
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I wouldnt base anything in stone on spring training, but if Kotsay is hitting let him play. He did have some good at bats last year, I can remember him putting the ball in play and hitting the ball hard quite frequently, even when he made out. One that stands out was against Joe Nathan in Minny when he came up with the game tying run on 2nd in the 9th with 2 outs. I remember saying to my Dad I guarantee he makes good solid contact off Nathan whether its a hit or an out I dunno....sure enough he hit a screaming liner to Cuddyer in RF for an out.

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QUOTE (joeynach @ Mar 25, 2010 -> 12:52 AM)
I wouldnt base anything in stone on spring training, but if Kotsay is hitting let him play. He did have some good at bats last year, I can remember him putting the ball in play and hitting the ball hard quite frequently, even when he made out. One that stands out was against Joe Nathan in Minny when he came up with the game tying run on 2nd in the 9th with 2 outs. I remember saying to my Dad I guarantee he makes good solid contact off Nathan whether its a hit or an out I dunno....sure enough he hit a screaming liner to Cuddyer in RF for an out.

 

If you want a fun exercise, take Kotsay's numbers last year and compare them to Pods of last year. And ask yourself a question how functional would your lineup be if you had Pods as your 3 hole hitter.

 

Against righties.....

 

Pods 2009

.297 BA .352 OBP .429 SLG .780 OPS

 

Kotsay 2009

 

.290 BA .347 OBP .419 SLG .766 OPS

Edited by southsideirish71
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QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Mar 25, 2010 -> 06:06 AM)
If you want a fun exercise, take Kotsay's numbers last year and compare them to Pods of last year. And ask yourself a question how functional would your lineup be if you had Pods as your 3 hole hitter.

 

But he hit a ball hard that was caught!! I remember saying after that Twins game that we'd never hear the end of Kotsay's "rocket" to Cuddyer. Kotsay is a fine bench player, but should never be starting more than once or twice a week.

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One thing I dont understand is all the fuss about Pierre not playing or leading off against Lefties why. Pierre is a career .304/.353./.349 hitter against lefties, seems like the perfect leadoff man to me. Hes .299/.346/.380 against righties so Pierre is not one of those candidates whose numbers changes much depending on the type of pitcher. Yeah some players need to be take out becuase their numbers fall off against righties or lefties, think Josh Fields against Righties, but thats not who Pierre is.

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QUOTE (joeynach @ Mar 25, 2010 -> 01:15 AM)
One thing I dont understand is all the fuss about Pierre not playing or leading off against Lefties why. Pierre is a career .304/.353./.349 hitter against lefties, seems like the perfect leadoff man to me. Hes .299/.346/.380 against righties so Pierre is not one of those candidates whose numbers changes much depending on the type of pitcher. Yeah some players need to be take out becuase their numbers fall off against righties or lefties, think Josh Fields against Righties, but thats not who Pierre is.

 

I don't understand taking out one lefty hitter, and then replacing them with another lefty hitter who can't hit lefties anymore. Then ensuring that they get the most ABs in the game.

 

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QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 24, 2010 -> 11:48 PM)
Kotsay could be batting 7th and Pierre 9th, and I would still say the bottom of our order is weak. I will also predict that if Ozzie tries to play Kotsay 4 times a week, he will be on the DL for an extended period.

No he won't. He's a grinder. He'll play through his injury.

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QUOTE (joeynach @ Mar 25, 2010 -> 01:15 AM)
One thing I dont understand is all the fuss about Pierre not playing or leading off against Lefties why. Pierre is a career .304/.353./.349 hitter against lefties, seems like the perfect leadoff man to me. Hes .299/.346/.380 against righties so Pierre is not one of those candidates whose numbers changes much depending on the type of pitcher. Yeah some players need to be take out becuase their numbers fall off against righties or lefties, think Josh Fields against Righties, but thats not who Pierre is.

This gets at the one area where, to me, there is simply zero argument of any kind that can be made to support Ozzie. He does L/R match-ups because he assumes all players/pitchers fit that mold, when some do not. There is no good logical reason to play Pierre more against righties than lefties - none. Ozzie is just not a stats guy, so he assumes R/L is everything. He's just plain 100% wrong on these cases, and it drives me batty that someone hasn't pulled him aside and taught him about this.

 

All these other issues about where in the order guys hit, power vs OBP vs speed, how often you try to steal, etc. - I have opinions, we all do, but there are at least some sort of logical points that can be made from either side of the discussion.

 

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I am tired of s***ty pitchers especially soft tossing lefties and righties shutting out the White Sox if Guillen thinks this is the answer, fine run with it.

 

Herm is better at his job than any person associated with MLB, players included. Maybe Kotsay is the next Ellis Burks who knows.

 

I am willing to give it a shot though.

 

If it does not work KW will make a trade that he could/should have over the offseason.

 

This team is based on pitching. The hitting of Kotsay and Jones will not impact wheather this team wins or losses. Carlos, Teahen, Ramirez and Rios will decide this from the hitting stand point. It is like trying to blame 2006 on Mackowiak/Anderson.

 

I like Kotsay and Pierre though.

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QUOTE (Jenks Heat @ Mar 25, 2010 -> 09:10 AM)
I am tired of s***ty pitchers especially soft tossing lefties and righties shutting out the White Sox if Guillen thinks this is the answer, fine run with it.

 

Herm is better at his job than any person associated with MLB, players included. Maybe Kotsay is the next Ellis Burks who knows.

 

I am willing to give it a shot though.

 

If it does not work KW will make a trade that he could/should have over the offseason.

 

This team is based on pitching. The hitting of Kotsay and Jones will not impact wheather this team wins or losses. Carlos, Teahen, Ramirez and Rios will decide this from the hitting stand point. It is like trying to blame 2006 on Mackowiak/Anderson.

 

I like Kotsay and Pierre though.

Eh? If you are saying that its less important than some people think, then I might agree. But to say it has NO impact seems a bit silly.

 

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 24, 2010 -> 09:56 PM)
It might be possible that there will be a player I hate more than Darin Erstad.

 

this is my feeling exactly, i said i hated him as much as erstad last year when we got him. batting him third is really insane.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 25, 2010 -> 01:08 AM)
But he hit a ball hard that was caught!! I remember saying after that Twins game that we'd never hear the end of Kotsay's "rocket" to Cuddyer. Kotsay is a fine bench player, but should never be starting more than once or twice a week.

 

i was at that game and remember it clearly. i was thinking to myself people are actually gonna have hope because he guessed right on a fastball off a guy with a broken arm. kotsay is not some 23 yr old with something to prove. we all know what he is, a bench player. there is zero upside to this! he shouldn't be starting for the 1906 hitless wonders, let alone batting third

 

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I'm trying something new and have promised not too get to worked up over the stupid s*** Ozzie does year-to-year. It's not worth b****ing about something that's clearly a terrible idea that we can do nothing to prevent. This'll pass soon enough, we'll lose a couple games in between, and then we'll go back to hitting Q 3rd, and wishing like hell we had signed Thome for Kotsay's contract.

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Darin Erstad vs RHP in his career - .289/.346/.415/.760 (and yes, this counts the final 4 seasons and 942 plate appearances where he put up a .247/.299/.344/.643 line)

Mark Kotsay vs RHP in his career - .282/.340/.418/.758

 

That doesn't look a hell of a lot different to me, and in fact, it looks like Erstad is the better hitter and was regarded as an even better hitter against righties when he was signed.

 

To me, the only saving grace in all of this is that Kotsay's floor appears to be a bit higher than Erstad's (.700ish OPS opposed to .675ish), but if he's hitting third, than it's worse because he's in a power and run producing slot in the lineup as opposed to a more conducive spot for him in the lineup, like 7th or 9th or not in the lineup at all. s***, I'd rather have Kotsay lead off or hit 2nd than hit f***ing 3rd.

 

I'm hoping and praying that KW is almost overly trigger happy to end this experiment, or that Andruw Jones lights it up. I don't know that I'm going to be able to handle 300+ plate appearances of Kotsay. Hopefully he hits.

 

And, for s***s and giggles to sort of prove how valuable Kotsay would be off the bench...

 

Career as a starter - .279/.334/.410/.745, 5987 plate appearances

Career as a sub - .345/.400/.515/.915, 181 plate appearances

Career as a pinch hitter - .338/.378/.519/.898 in 82 pinch hitting appearances

 

It's only sort of proof, because the sample size is ridiculously small and you can't get any sort of significance out of it, but a career .745 OPS as a starter?

 

---

 

At the end of the day, I think I just wasted 15 minutes of my life with this post because I think Ozzie's just bored of Spring Training and just spewing random BS ideas rather than actually thinking about what he says (though I sometimes think he never thinks about what he says).

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QUOTE (MattZakrowski @ Mar 24, 2010 -> 10:42 PM)
People need to stop saying he hits righties well, because it's not true.

 

Career

.290/.347/.419, .330 wOBA vs RHP

 

So unless you honestly believe a 34 year old player is going to substantially outperform his career averages, the best we could hope for is league average. League average includes catchers and shortstops and Brian Anderson, so this is bad for a DH.

It makes very little sense.

 

Kotsay's 3 year splits vs RHP: .275/.335/.403/.738, 654 PA, 10 HR

 

Kotsay's 4 year splits vs RHP: .276/.339/.394/.732, 1088 PA, 14 HR

 

Kotsay's 5 year splits vs RHP: .272/.330/.397/.727, 1525 PA, 26 HR

 

I don't know who's spreading this rumor that Kotsay handles righties well but I wish they'd stop because they're confusing quite a few people.

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