ESPN Magazine Computer Predictions

[LittleHurt05]

This is from the upcoming ESPN Magazine, they did 100 computer simulations and the Twins finished 1st more often, but somehow the Indians were next in line, as well as the only team to snag a wild card berth in one simulation. They also dont think much of the division, as the Twins are the only team to average a +.500 finish, at barely 82 wins.

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5028413

Average W-L Record:

Twins 82.2-79.8

Indians 78.9-83.1

White Sox 76.4-85.6

Tigers 74.4-87.6

Royals 73.3-88.7

 

1st place finishes out of 100 simulations:

Twins 48.5

Indians 22.5

White Sox 18.5

Tigers 8

Royals 2.5

[ScottyDo]

This is from the upcoming ESPN Magazine, they did 100 computer simulations and the Twins finished 1st more often, but somehow the Indians were next in line, as well as the only team to snag a wild card berth in one simulation. They also dont think much of the division, as the Twins are the only team to average a +.500 finish, at barely 82 wins.

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5028413

Knowing ESPN, their "computer simulation" probably consisted of a couple seasons of The Show.

[daggins]

Do computer models tend to favor offense over defense and pitching?

 

If their pitching comes around (big if) the Indians could be tough. LaPorta could break out this year and Grady should bounce back.

[Steve9347]

This is from the upcoming ESPN Magazine, they did 100 computer simulations and the Twins finished 1st more often, but somehow the Indians were next in line, as well as the only team to snag a wild card berth in one simulation. They also dont think much of the division, as the Twins are the only team to average a +.500 finish, at barely 82 wins.

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5028413

It came out last week.

 

Awesome article with Jake Peavy in it...

[southsider2k5]

This is from the upcoming ESPN Magazine, they did 100 computer simulations and the Twins finished 1st more often, but somehow the Indians were next in line, as well as the only team to snag a wild card berth in one simulation. They also dont think much of the division, as the Twins are the only team to average a +.500 finish, at barely 82 wins.

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5028413

 

I agree with how they see Minnesota and Detroit for sure, but Cleveland? I don't see it.

[Balta1701]

Has ESPN's computer predictions established any sort of record of predictive ability or accuracy in the past?

 

I could write a "Computer prediction code", feed in last year's OPS numbers of every player and pitcher and probably come up with a computer prediction code that could be a statistically significant predictor of every team's finishing position this year, but that doesn't mean that I'd actually gain anything by the 20 minutes I'd spend doing it.

 

Seriously, the odds that every team in the AL central will be a .500 team or below? I learn nothing from this.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Knowing ESPN, their "computer simulation" probably consisted of a couple seasons of The Show.

 

Probably. Especially after they dumped 2K baseball because it's so s***ty.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I agree with how they see Minnesota and Detroit for sure, but Cleveland? I don't see it.

 

They're going to score some runs. They've got a plethora of young talented arms. But they're all at least a couple years away. I will say the two trades they made in landing Carlos Santana and Chris Perez will pay big dividends this year and beyond. Especially since they gave up two older players who've already seen their best days.

Edited March 30, 2010 by Jordan4life

[southsider2k5]

They're going to score some runs. They've got a plethora of young talented arms. But they're all at least a couple years away. I will say the two trades they made in landing Carlos Santana and Chris Perez will pay big dividends this year and beyond. Especially since they gave up two older players who've already seen their best days.

 

Young arms don't equal immediate success. You need some veterans and some leadership, and I just don't see that there.

[ThunderBolt]

The Indians are a joke. I don't buy them putting up a fight.

[scenario]

The Indians are a joke. I don't buy them putting up a fight.

 

Although they might look different if Carmona (who has had a great spring) continues to throw the ball over the plate.

 

 

[bschmaranz]

Knowing ESPN, their "computer simulation" probably consisted of a couple seasons of The Show.

 

They used ZiPS

[ScottyDo]

They used ZiPS

Well then, ZiPS is crazy. The Central isn't that bad and the Indians aren't at all good. It would take dramatic steps to launch them from the basement to the ceiling, but instead they traded their ace.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Young arms don't equal immediate success. You need some veterans and some leadership, and I just don't see that there.

 

That's why I said "a couple years away." I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish third, though. They're setting themselves up nicely for 2012 and onward.

Edited March 30, 2010 by Jordan4life

[AWhiteSoxinNJ]

Sounds about right, we aren't a playoff team.

[DukeNukeEm]

The White Sox have been known to buck computer simulations for a while now. Even the guy from BP said something along the lines of "the White Sox have been proving us wrong, we cannot figure out why."

[chw42]

I really don't see the Indians finishing any higher than 3rd.

[witesoxfan]

This projection looks flawed simply because it doesn't appear to treat good pitching teams very kindly. That, or it's giving too much credit to a rotation that's headed by Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona.

[JohnCangelosi]

We're counting on big bounce back years from TCQ, Rios, and maybe even Jones for us to score enough runs this year so I understand their thinking- we cannot afford any let down years out of almost anyone to score enough runs this year. Although, maybe KW solves that problem at some point in June...

[AWhiteSoxinNJ]

We're counting on big bounce back years from TCQ, Rios, and maybe even Jones for us to score enough runs this year so I understand their thinking- we cannot afford any let down years out of almost anyone to score enough runs this year. Although, maybe KW solves that problem at some point in June...

 

Plus you putting your hopes on Beckham improving, Alexei finds his bat again, AJ hitting .300, Teahen struggles, Paulie declining, etc.

Edited March 31, 2010 by AWhiteSoxinNJ

[witesoxfan]

Plus you putting your hopes on Beckham improving, Alexei finds his bat again, AJ hitting .300, Teahen struggles, Paulie declining, etc.

 

Teahen struggling and Konerko declining don't sound like good things for the offense, but if all of that went right, the Sox offense would be pretty goddamn good.

 

The Sox don't suddenly need like 7 guys to step up to even have a competent offense. The big things they need are for Quentin to come back to something similar to his 2008 form while maintaining health and for average seasons out of quite a few players. Expecting Beckham to improve is not far fetched at all (and could even be likely), and expecting Alex Rios to put up something closer to .800 than .700 is actually probably a good bet as well.

[Voros]

I know Dan pretty well and I'm thrilled for him that he's got this gig. He knows what he's doing.

 

I think the issue is not so much that the Indians are projected to be good (they're not), but that it's a crappy division (it is).

 

If the Sox have an offense right now, they're going to need some production from some unlikely sources. Preventing runs is only 50% of the game and so the pitching staff and a decent defense are only going to take the Sox so far. The weight of the world currently rests on the shoulders of Beckham, Quentin and Konerko; they have to produce and produce big.

 

I probably _would_ put the Sox ahead of the Indians as the Indians really have had quite a time of it with their pitchers the last few years and the early returns on Branyan are not looking so good. But I certainly wouldn't make that gap more than a couple of games.

[AWhiteSoxinNJ]

Teahen struggling and Konerko declining don't sound like good things for the offense, but if all of that went right, the Sox offense would be pretty goddamn good.

 

The Sox don't suddenly need like 7 guys to step up to even have a competent offense. The big things they need are for Quentin to come back to something similar to his 2008 form while maintaining health and for average seasons out of quite a few players. Expecting Beckham to improve is not far fetched at all (and could even be likely), and expecting Alex Rios to put up something closer to .800 than .700 is actually probably a good bet as well.

 

Still a lot of "if's" for my liking....

[DBAHO]

Carmona is obviously going to be the guy they really need to rebound if they want to have any chance.

 

I'm surprised they have the Tigers so low though. Is losing Granderson and Jackson for Damon and Scherzer really going to cost them that much? Uhhh no.

[soxfan3530]

the indians got 5th place written all over them imo. im not worried about them. this is a two horse race with the twins and sox with the tigers being the wild card in the division.

Edited March 31, 2010 by soxfan3530