Why Kotsay shouldn't Bat 5th

[Kalapse]

AJ's OPS since he joined the sox, starting in 05

 

.728

.769

.712

.728

.755

 

Kotsay hasn't played regularly because of injury for a couple seasons, so it's hard to give numbers on what we might get from him, especially if we're careful enough to keep him healthy. But he put up a .732 in 2008, and a .783 with the Sox last year. I'll be the first to admit "Sample size!", but if Kotsay hits like a .300 hitter, we're talkign ab out 10-20 points of OPS difference at the worst. AJ and Kotsay seem like pretty similar hitters when it comes to OPS. You can't get me mad about that one right now, the numbers just don't back it up.

Mark Kotsay is not going to hit .300, he did that once in his career when he was 28 years old, he's not that talented of a hitter. The last time he was healthy was his age 29 and 30 seasons (ie: a hitter's prime) and he put up a .278/.329/.405/.734 line (average of 11 HR). Shockingly the last time he got at least 400 PA in a season (age 32) he hit .276/.329/.403/.732 with 6 HR, or almost exactly what he hit the last time he wasn't beat up.

 

Personally, I'm putting Alex Rios 5th. I'm not cowering at the thought of a sidearmer (Pat Nechek and ?) coming in and mowing down my best hitters, Mark Kotsay's weakass bat isn't likely to save the day in that scenario. At least this way I have a potential run producer in a run producer's role and not a 34 year old journeyman slap hitter masquerading as a run producer. Janson Lewis (not a sidearmer) doesn't scare me enough to give away potential RBI situations in the first 6 innings of a game.

[JohnCangelosi]

Put Rios in the 5th spot. End of story.

[greg775]

If we play like we did yesterday every day, I wouldn't get too worked up about this.

[bmags]

Mark Kotsay is not going to hit .300, he did that once in his career when he was 28 years old, he's not that talented of a hitter. The last time he was healthy was his age 29 and 30 seasons (ie: a hitter's prime) and he put up a .278/.329/.405/.734 line (average of 11 HR). Shockingly the last time he got at least 400 PA in a season (age 32) he hit .276/.329/.403/.732 with 6 HR, or almost exactly what he hit the last time he wasn't beat up.

 

Personally, I'm putting Alex Rios 5th. I'm not cowering at the thought of a sidearmer (Pat Nechek and ?) coming in and mowing down my best hitters, Mark Kotsay's weakass bat isn't likely to save the day in that scenario. At least this way I have a potential run producer in a run producer's role and not a 34 year old journeyman slap hitter masquerading as a run producer. Janson Lewis (not a sidearmer) doesn't scare me enough to give away potential RBI situations in the first 6 innings of a game.

 

word. I you know, won't look it up, but i can't imagine that Kotsay's stats vs. RHP are better than Rios.

[Kalapse]

If we play like we did yesterday every day, I wouldn't get too worked up about this.

Something tells me our run differential isn't going to be +972 this season. Go back to what you thought of this team on Sunday; that's what you should be thinking of them now.

[Jordan4life_2007]

FanGraphs had a nice article about lineup optimization.

 

Optimizing Yesterday's Lineups

 

Using CHONE projections and a nice lineup optimizer tool, the writer compiled a list of how "optimized" the lineups were yesterday.

 

Team Actual Best Dif

TEX 5.017 5.033 -0.016

MIN 5.257 5.308 -0.051

OAK 4.519 4.571 -0.052

CLE 5.019 5.081 -0.062

KCA 4.379 4.446 -0.067

PIT 4.552 4.628 -0.076 *

DET 4.698 4.776 -0.078

TOR 4.676 4.763 -0.087

CHA 4.759 4.858 -0.099

SEA 4.478 4.578 -0.100

LAA 4.891 5.016 -0.125

HOU 3.967 4.142 -0.175

COL 5.064 5.258 -0.194

ATL 4.898 5.106 -0.208

LAN 4.773 5.982 -0.209

ARI 4.704 4.916 -0.212

FLO 4.813 5.035 -0.222

SFN 4.294 4.522 -0.228

PHI 4.783 5.102 -0.229

WAS 4.410 4.644 -0.234

CIN 4.608 4.846 -0.238

CHN 4.660 4.899 -0.239

MIL 4.629 4.876 -0.247

SDN 4.176 4.431 -0.255

NYN 4.381 4.645 -0.264

STL 4.843 5.116 -0.273

 

The AL teams obviously have the better optimized lineups since we don't have a pitcher hitting, but take a look where we are. According to this, we had the 8th best optimized lineup in the AL out of the 10 teams in action yesterday. And to be quite frank, TB, BOS, NY, and maybe even Baltimore might be ahead of us. Meaning we would've had the 11th or 12th best optimized lineup in the AL on opening day.

 

For a club that could be offensively challenged this is unacceptable.

 

Kotsay hitting in the 5th spot is one of the larger issues (Pierre at leadoff is another, but that won't ever change).

 

Taking something straight from the article.

 

 

 

For the most part, we have this right. Gordon's hitting second, Konerko is hitting 4th, but Kotsay is hitting 5th...

 

We saw this yesterday. Twice, Kotsay came up with men in scoring position, and twice hit the ball into the ground. If those ground balls weren't weak, it would have been two double plays, not just one. Had it been two, the Sox might have scored only 4 runs instead of 6 (since after Kotsay's ground out RBI, Quentin scored on a wild pitch).

 

If it wasn't against the Indians, that could have made a hell of a difference.

 

Ozzie needs to stop playing around and either put Rios or somebody more qualified into that 5th hole. Hell, I'd rather have A.J. there than Kotsay. Or, move Quentin to 4th, Konerko to 5th and Rios to third if Alex gets off to a good start this week. He can play Kotsay as much as he wants for all I care, just hit him lower in the order where he won't be put into situations that can decide the fate of a game.

 

Not that I needed to see any of this. But this is excellent. The guys at Fangraphs are 100% always on their s***. But our manager is Ozzie Guillen. He perpetually manages by "feel" or with his "gut." He would never look at a statistic as what you've just displayed. "I makes the facking lineup!"

Edited April 6, 2010 by Jordan4life

[Kalapse]

word. I you know, won't look it up, but i can't imagine that Kotsay's stats vs. RHP are better than Rios.

How about this: Rios is 1 for 4 with a HR and a BB against Pat Neshek in his career and Kotsay's 0 for 1 with a K. Neshek's the only tough righty with a bizarre delivery in our division that I can think of and Rios has made contact off him before.

 

Rios sucked against everyone last year so I'm not even going to look it up.

 

.292/.342/.476/.818 vs RHP in '08

.283/.334/.468/.802 vs RHP in '07

 

Rios is just a much better hitter so I'm going to put him in a position to drive in runs. I'm not too worried about splits; good hitters have a good shot against good hitters regardless of their delivery or throwing hand. When you're an every day player who hits right handed and puts up numbers like Rios has in the past the majority of your success is going to come against right handed pitching because it makes up 70% of the league's pitchers, his splits this year may be better against lefties in the end but that will be in less than 200 PA so if he's producing then he's handling righties just fine.

[bmags]

that's fine, but can rios, with bases loaded, beat out his slow roller that was nearly a double play?

[Quin]

AGon would be wonderful about now.

 

But, that's not gonna happen, so hopefully Teahen becomes 2006 Teahen or we don't have any options basically.

[witesoxfan]

that's fine, but can rios, with bases loaded, beat out his slow roller that was nearly a double play?

 

Absolutely not, his lack of a beard and grindiness would have caused him to trip and fall on the way to 1st.

[knightni]

I'm not a big fan of facts.

And thus, a career in left wing politics was born!

[BigSqwert]

And thus, a career in left wing politics was born!

Damn. It took this long for someone to mention that?

[knightni]

Most teams aren't tied down to the whole, "L,R,L,R" batting order setup like the Sox.

 

I just don't see why you can't have the lineup be:

 

Pierre

Beckham

Quentin

Konerko

Rios

Pierzynski

Ramirez

Teahen

Kotsay/Jones

 

So what if there's three lefties in a row or four righties. It's never kept Minnesota or Detroit from winning when they set their lineups like that.

[beck72]

IMO, Kotsay is hitting 5th in the short term. Teahen is likely going to hit there very soon, and he seems best suited for it after Konerko. Esp. if he hits like most think he will in the Cell and hit like he did in '06 and '07 vs RHP with his .896 OPS and .800. But why put extra pressure on Teahen now?

[BigSqwert]

But why put extra pressure on Teahen now?

What does that even mean? Kotsay is pressure proof and Teahan needs to be handled with gloves?

[Balta1701]

So what if there's three lefties in a row or four righties. It's never kept Minnesota or Detroit from winning when they set their lineups like that.

Even those teams try to break them up though. I've seen the Twins with Cuddyer hitting between M auer and Morneau (didn't Morneau hit 5th when he won the MVP?) And Carlos Guillen is a switch hitter.

[Balta1701]

Kotsay is pressure proof and Teahan needs to be handled with gloves?

Frankly, if Teahen's struggles at the plate the last coupel years in KC related to him having to move around all the time and never settling at a position, as has been suggested...that could easily be true.

[BigSqwert]

Frankly, if Teahen's struggles at the plate the last coupel years in KC related to him having to move around all the time and never settling at a position, as has been suggested...that could easily be true.

 

He's playing 3rd base. Every day.

[Balta1701]

He's playing 3rd base. Every day.

So, let him settle in before moving him up to 5th in the lineup and counting on him.

[flavum]

Before long the lineup will be Pierre, Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Rios, Pierzynski, Jones, Teahen, Ramirez, and we'll all be enjoying it a lot. This Kotsay thing is temporary. He's a once a week starter, pinch hitter, defensive replacement after Nix runs for Konerko.

[BigSqwert]

So, let him settle in before moving him up to 5th in the lineup and counting on him.

 

I'd think his confidence would be improved if he started hitting 5th instead of towards the bottom of the order. And why not have Kostay settle in by hitting 7th or so before making him your 5th hitter?

[joeynach]

Its obvious that if Rios is back to performing like the Rios of old, which by most accounts it seems hes there, then should and will be this teams permanent 5 hole hitter.

[bmags]

Something tells me our run differential isn't going to be +972 this season. Go back to what you thought of this team on Sunday; that's what you should be thinking of them now.

 

haha, best post.

[Rowand44]

Like it or not, there's logic to breaking up the RH hitters. Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Rios all in a row, followed by Jones/Kotsay, AJ, Teahen, and Ramirez...if you don't break them up, you're setting yourself up to be hurt in the 8th and 9th innings by LOOGY and ROOGY people. That's not just for the heart of the order too...yes, Quentin and others have splits that say they hit RHP fine...but there's always going to be an occasional RHP, say a side-armer or sommething like that, which you can pull out of a hat to frustrate those guys, and if you don't break them up you're giving away innings.

And there's going to be right handed pitchers that bother Kotsay as well, so that point is kind of moot. He needs to be batting lower in the order and there's just no doubt about it. Having him hit behind your 3 best hitters especially when 2 of them are going to get on base a ton is just one hell of a terrible idea. Just imagine being down a few runs in the 6th or 7th inning, 2 on and 2 out, the opposing team brings in a tough lefty and Ozzie has to decide on keeping Mr. .500 ops vs. left handers in or losing the dh. Two pretty terrible options and something tells me that's going to happen a decent amount this season.

[Ranger]

Like it or not, there's logic to breaking up the RH hitters. Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Rios all in a row, followed by Jones/Kotsay, AJ, Teahen, and Ramirez...if you don't break them up, you're setting yourself up to be hurt in the 8th and 9th innings by LOOGY and ROOGY people. That's not just for the heart of the order too...yes, Quentin and others have splits that say they hit RHP fine...but there's always going to be an occasional RHP, say a side-armer or sommething like that, which you can pull out of a hat to frustrate those guys, and if you don't break them up you're giving away innings.

 

The ideal solution is to get an .800 OPS out of Teahen. If he can do that, he can fit in that 5th spot and not be a hole.

 

Otherwise, I'll live with Kotsay until it's May and hes hitting .220. If he can hit .300 out of that spot, even if he does so with no power, at least he breaks everything up.

 

Reasonable.

 

If Ozzie and Hawk can be blinded by Kotsay mania, I'm sure that some may be blinded by his hot wife or the perception that he used to be a good hitter with a good glove.

 

Your mistake is in assuming that people that can make a case for having him hit 5th is the same as them having some sort of "Kotsay-mania". The argument above is a valid one. You can pretty much guarantee that just about every game, the LRLR matchup is going to matter late in the game unless it's a blowout or some pitcher is throwing a complete game, which doesn't happen much anymore.

 

The real issue is that none of the left-handed hitters on the roster are all that fearsome (although Teahen has the best potential to improve and be that), so it's a pretty good idea to separate them as best as can be done.

 

You can get that out of A.J.

 

He actually hits for more power than Kotsay too.

 

He really doesn't. They are very, very similar hitters in terms of production.

Edited April 6, 2010 by Ranger