Why Kotsay shouldn't Bat 5th

[Leonard Zelig]

This is a really productive post in a thread dedicated to "b****ing" about what my post is about. You're right we should accept glaring faults when they're masked by other things of quality. We should accept below-average performance, becasue we're all "talked out" on the subject. That's an effective approach and doesn't at all distract from the subject at hand.

 

 

Let's just not argue anything, and we can shut down Soxtalk for the winter.

 

Well, we could give our players more than one game before we trash them.

 

What teams do you guys see that don't have faults? What teams with equal or lower payrolls would you trade our roster for?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Well, we could give our players more than one game before we trash them.

 

What teams do you guys see that don't have faults? What teams with equal or lower payrolls would you trade our roster for?

 

The Rays.

[Leonard Zelig]

The Rays.

 

They have 3 guys in their rotation with less than 40 games pitched in their careers.

 

What would people here be saying about Kapler if he was our starting RF?

[chw42]

They have 3 guys in their rotation with less than 40 games pitched in their careers.

 

What would people here be saying about Kapler if he was our starting RF?

 

I think Zobrist is gonna play there a lot with Rodriguez/Brignac platoon at 2B.

[Jordan4life_2007]

They have 3 guys in their rotation with less than 40 games pitched in their careers.

 

What would people here be saying about Kapler if he was our starting RF?

 

And what would a Rays fan say if their starting LF/3B was Juan Pierre and Mark Teahen? And their rotation might be young. But David Price and Wade Davis project out to elite #1 and #2 starters. Jeff Niemann looks like a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. And whatever advantage we have in pitching gives way to the big edge they have on us in hitting and the ENORMOUS edge they have defensively.

[dyuen]

That is a completely different argument. Positions on the field are irrelevant in determining positions in the lineup.

 

I seriously think we need to stop overvaluing this DH thing, I do not believe it will make or break them.

 

Its not a different argument. It was a response to someone comparing AJ to Kotsay offensively.

[gatnom]

Well, we could give our players more than one game before we trash them.

 

What teams do you guys see that don't have faults? What teams with equal or lower payrolls would you trade our roster for?

 

I don't think I was trashing any player specifically, more like Ozzie's use of said players. I just think that Kotsay shouldn't be an everyday player and that he should be in the lower part of the order when he does play. Yeah, Mark Kotsay could theoretically be a great hitter because we can't rule anything out before it happens, but I see absolutely no reason whatsoever that would point to this conclusion.

 

I understand that all teams are going to have faults one way or another and that not every player plays like they are expected or predicted to. However, that doesn't mean we should just ignore our faults and pretend like they don't exist because of the one in a million chance a player plays way over their head for a season. In the beginning of the season, you should build the line up based upon reasonable expectations and adjust for which players are under performing and over performing after some meaningful baseball has been played. Ozzie isn't doing this right now, which is the entire point of this thread.

[Steve9347]

Ya.. I would give that some time too.

LOL. Thank you.

[greg775]

Well, we could give our players more than one game before we trash them.

 

This is entertaining. I hope I can keep my mouth somewhat shut this season and not trash my least favorite players like I like to do. It's been entertaining reading others blast some of the '10 Sox and stay out of it this time.

[OldSmoky2]

Of the seven AL teams ahead of us in those projections yesterday, five lost. Doesn't mean it's not a useful stat, but just pointing that out.

[ScottyDo]

I don't believe these "ideal lineups" take into account the types of pitches you get when a quality hitter is behind you, I think they just take your stats and apply them to some probability matrices to come up with the "best" one (EDIT: if I'm wrong, feel free to flame me because I don't actually know). As a result, I don't put much stock in them.

 

I would, however, agree that Kotsay would not be hitting 5th in an ideal lineup and that we should put Rios in there ASAP. 4 righties in a row be damned, the best hitter needs to be in there. I think Ozzie's just riding Kotsay's spring hot streak, though. It's only been one game, too soon to declare his hot streak dead. If he's still struggling in 5 games, I think we can declare that experiment OVA!

Edited April 7, 2010 by ScottyDo

[Ranger]

You're going to drive me nuts with this line Ranger.

 

Sorry, friend, but it's the truth and it's a valid argument. It won't make or break them at the end of the year. You can come back in 6 months and prove me wrong should it go the other way, but I'm pretty confident in this.

 

And this idea that we shouldn't "accept mediocrity" is what obviously drives the groaning about it. Fine, nobody likes mediocrity. But we should accept reality and understand that it is nearly impossible to have quality at every single position on a basbeall team. There isn't a single team in the game that is set at every position, including some of the important positions. Not a single one.

 

The reality is that if a team does not have Yankees resources, they have try to be as strong as they can in as many areas as they can, while knowing they can't be great at everything. Obviously, the Twins offense is something to envy, but I promise you they'd love to have the Sox pitching staff from top to bottom. Of course the Sox would have a better chance to win the division and beyond if Mark Kotsay wasn't hitting 5th, but the Twins would also have a better chance at the division if Scott Baker wasn't their opening day starter.

[ThunderBolt]

Of the seven AL teams ahead of us in those projections yesterday, five lost. Doesn't mean it's not a useful stat, but just pointing that out.

This might be a record for the smallest sample size ever used to make a point about lineups.

[SockMe]

to me Kotsay is a guy you put out there to be a fielder or to pinch hit for Teahen or something, not the DH and let alone batting 5th? This experiment will end fast.

[chw42]

Of the seven AL teams ahead of us in those projections yesterday, five lost. Doesn't mean it's not a useful stat, but just pointing that out.

 

There's a few issues with that argument. You have to look at how many runs that team scored, how much value their lineup brought to begin with, and how many runs the pitchers on that team gave up.

[Leonard Zelig]

And what would a Rays fan say if their starting LF/3B was Juan Pierre and Mark Teahen? And their rotation might be young. But David Price and Wade Davis project out to elite #1 and #2 starters. Jeff Niemann looks like a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. And whatever advantage we have in pitching gives way to the big edge they have on us in hitting and the ENORMOUS edge they have defensively.

 

Well, I'm not sure which of my questions you were answering when you said the Rays. I'm guessing you meant that you would take their roster and not that they have no faults in their lineup. Maybe in the long run theirs will be better, but for this season, I will take our players with their track records over any projections.

 

Also not sure how you quantify their offense & defense vs. our pitching. Is there some stat for this or is it just your opinion?

[Leonard Zelig]

I don't think I was trashing any player specifically, more like Ozzie's use of said players. I just think that Kotsay shouldn't be an everyday player and that he should be in the lower part of the order when he does play. Yeah, Mark Kotsay could theoretically be a great hitter because we can't rule anything out before it happens, but I see absolutely no reason whatsoever that would point to this conclusion.

 

I understand that all teams are going to have faults one way or another and that not every player plays like they are expected or predicted to. However, that doesn't mean we should just ignore our faults and pretend like they don't exist because of the one in a million chance a player plays way over their head for a season. In the beginning of the season, you should build the line up based upon reasonable expectations and adjust for which players are under performing and over performing after some meaningful baseball has been played. Ozzie isn't doing this right now, which is the entire point of this thread.

 

I don't necessarily think Kotsay should be any everyday player either, but I don't think the plan is for him to be one, so I am not worried about that until it actually happens.

[chw42]

Well, I'm not sure which of my questions you were answering when you said the Rays. I'm guessing you meant that you would take their roster and not that they have no faults in their lineup. Maybe in the long run theirs will be better, but for this season, I will take our players with their track records over any projections.

 

Also not sure how you quantify their offense & defense vs. our pitching. Is there some stat for this or is it just your opinion?

 

Theirs is just as good as ours right now.

 

We have the better rotation and bullpen, but they have one hell of an offense.

 

I'd say that our starting pitching is one tier better and our bullpen is one tier better. But their offense is somewhere near the likes of Boston and New York while we'll hover near the middle of the AL.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Well, I'm not sure which of my questions you were answering when you said the Rays. I'm guessing you meant that you would take their roster and not that they have no faults in their lineup. Maybe in the long run theirs will be better, but for this season, I will take our players with their track records over any projections.

 

Also not sure how you quantify their offense & defense vs. our pitching. Is there some stat for this or is it just your opinion?

 

You asked what roster would we take with an equal or lesser payroll and the Rays immediately came to my head. I didn't say they were a perfect team. They've got issues at 2B and C. RF might not be a big thing for them if they leave Zobrist out there, which he played tonight. How do I quantify their offense and defense vs our pitching? I don't understand what you're asking. They flat-out have a better lineup and their team defense is worlds better. You want me to provide stats? I shouldn't have to.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Theirs is just as good as ours right now.

 

We have the better rotation and bullpen, but they have one hell of an offense.

 

I'd say that our starting pitching is one tier better and our bullpen is one tier better. But their offense is somewhere near the likes of Boston and New York while we'll hover near the middle of the AL.

 

I'm not even sure we have the better bullpen when Howell is healthy. We have a clear edge if Bobby can rebound from last year's mediocre performance. Adding Soriano was a big upgrade for Tampa.

[chw42]

I'm not even sure we have the better bullpen when Howell is healthy. We have a clear edge if Bobby can rebound from last year's mediocre performance. Adding Soriano was a big upgrade for Tampa.

 

Adding Soriano does help. But when you look at our bullpen, we have a lot more talent there and a whole lot more potential.

[Lillian]

If you look at Andruw Jones' split stats over the last 5 years, you will discover that he has hit virtually the same vs. right handers and left handers.

This includes two outstanding seasons in 2005 and 2006, and three injury plagued years, during which he was in terrible shape.

 

If you believe he is now capable of performing up to reasonable expectations for a guy still in his prime, now in great shape, who has a long stellar career, then platooning him doesn't make any sense.

If on the the other hand, you believe that he is finished as he turns 33, then just cut him or trade him for a left handed bat. However platooning him should not be an option.

 

Moreover, as I have previously pointed out, he is still arguably the best center fielder on this team, and therefore should be playing the outfield, and not DHing.

 

I think that Ozzie will eventually play Jones in CF on a pretty regular basis. I suspect that he is just giving Kotsay an opportunity to play because he had a very good Spring. If Jones performs, and Kotsay doesn't, Ozzie will likely return Kotsay to his role as bench player and Jones can bat in the middle of the order.

His presence in the lineup could provide the much needed protection for Quentin. That is really the biggest weakness in the Sox offense. There is no one on this team that can stop pitchers from going around Carlos, except for Jones. Konerko would have provided that kind of protection in his prime, but I don't think he can fill that role at this stage of his career.

[knightni]

Jones should be batting 6th or 7th after Rios/AJ instead of Kotsay.

[Lillian]

One other point which argues quite strongly for Jones over Kotsay: The upside potential of Jones is far greater than it is for Kotsay. There is a realistic chance that Jones could be a very productive run producer, and that makes playing him worth a shot. Kotsay at his best, would still never be a big run producer.

[nickofypres]

One other point which argues quite strongly for Jones over Kotsay: The upside potential of Jones is far greater than it is for Kotsay. There is a realistic chance that Jones could be a very productive run producer, and that makes playing him worth a shot. Kotsay at his best, would still never be a big run producer.

 

My thoughts as well.