Why Kotsay shouldn't Bat 5th

[Lillian]

Jones should be batting 6th or 7th after Rios/AJ instead of Kotsay.

 

If Jones can produce as the clean up hitter, or number 5, then A. J. should bat 6th in order to mix up the lefty, righty hitters.

Then I love Rios as the 7th hitter. It provides an opportunity to have an exceptionally good bottom third of the lineup.

Rios, with his a legitimate stolen base threat, can function like a lead off hitter for the bottom third of the order. Yet, he can also drive in guys who get on base in the middle of the order.

Then Teahen can bat 8th, and Alexei 9th. Ramirez has the ability to drive in the big run, with decent power, but also gives you another guy with decent speed, who functions like another lead off hitter. All three of those guys are at the age when they should be coming into their primes.

 

While the Sox offense may not feature the most intimidating middle of the order, its total depth and versatility is very good. The bottom of their order could be as potent as just about anyone's.

[DBAHO]

Adding Soriano does help. But when you look at our bullpen, we have a lot more talent there and a whole lot more potential.

Grant Balfour is basically the key guy in their bullpen alongisde Howell (he's an Aussie so I keep a good track on him).

 

In 08 he had a 1.54 ERA when they made the World Series, last season that went down to 4.81. If he can get back on track, they've got a very good set-up duo.

[DBAHO]

Also, if Kotsay puts up a .292/.349/.434 line in say 250 AB's for the Sox (that was his line from 113 AB's with the Sox last season);

 

1 - Would you be happy with that from the DH platoon split?

2 - Is that line good enough to stop the Sox from acquiring a Lance Berkman at the deadline?

[Leonard Zelig]

You asked what roster would we take with an equal or lesser payroll and the Rays immediately came to my head. I didn't say they were a perfect team. They've got issues at 2B and C. RF might not be a big thing for them if they leave Zobrist out there, which he played tonight. How do I quantify their offense and defense vs our pitching? I don't understand what you're asking. They flat-out have a better lineup and their team defense is worlds better. You want me to provide stats? I shouldn't have to.

 

I asked 2 questions in that post and you gave one answer, I didn't know for which question. I see that they have a better lineup & defense, but when you say:

 

"And whatever advantage we have in pitching gives way to the big edge they have on us in hitting and the ENORMOUS edge they have defensively."

 

Is that measurable or is it just what you think?

Edited April 7, 2010 by Leonard Zelig

[balfanman]

And what would a Rays fan say if their starting LF/3B was Juan Pierre and Mark Teahen? And their rotation might be young. But David Price and Wade Davis project out to elite #1 and #2 starters. Jeff Niemann looks like a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. And whatever advantage we have in pitching gives way to the big edge they have on us in hitting and the ENORMOUS edge they have defensively.

 

I don't think that the Rays have an "enormous" edge on us defensively. I know that it's wrong to compare our defensive prowess to recent Sox teams because frankly, we haven't been very good. The 2010 Sox may not be the best team in the league defensively, but we are vastly improved in this area and I think that we will end up being above average overall. JMHO.

[Balta1701]

Also, if Kotsay puts up a .292/.349/.434 line in say 250 AB's for the Sox (that was his line from 113 AB's with the Sox last season);

 

1 - Would you be happy with that from the DH platoon split?

2 - Is that line good enough to stop the Sox from acquiring a Lance Berkman at the deadline?

That's a .783 OPS. If he's getting most of those at bats at DH, then he's still a liability there, he's still a below average DH. If...however, he's splitting time between DH and corner OF/1b, allowing Konerko to get some extra rest (and honestly, no matter how much Ozzie may like his grindiness, having a backup 1b is the #1 reason he's on the roster), then that would be acceptable.

 

BUT...if the deal can be done without giving up Hudson...there's no reason for the Sox to not consider significant upgrades at the deadline, unless Jones is putting up an .865 OPS or something like that.

[Kalapse]

If you look at Andruw Jones' split stats over the last 5 years, you will discover that he has hit virtually the same vs. right handers and left handers.

This includes two outstanding seasons in 2005 and 2006, and three injury plagued years, during which he was in terrible shape.

 

If you believe he is now capable of performing up to reasonable expectations for a guy still in his prime, now in great shape, who has a long stellar career, then platooning him doesn't make any sense.

If on the the other hand, you believe that he is finished as he turns 33, then just cut him or trade him for a left handed bat. However platooning him should not be an option.

 

Moreover, as I have previously pointed out, he is still arguably the best center fielder on this team, and therefore should be playing the outfield, and not DHing.

 

I think that Ozzie will eventually play Jones in CF on a pretty regular basis. I suspect that he is just giving Kotsay an opportunity to play because he had a very good Spring. If Jones performs, and Kotsay doesn't, Ozzie will likely return Kotsay to his role as bench player and Jones can bat in the middle of the order.

His presence in the lineup could provide the much needed protection for Quentin. That is really the biggest weakness in the Sox offense. There is no one on this team that can stop pitchers from going around Carlos, except for Jones. Konerko would have provided that kind of protection in his prime, but I don't think he can fill that role at this stage of his career.

He was in very good shape at the beginning of the 2007 season.

[bmags]

this guy thinks andruw jones will hit better than konerko this year?

[chw42]

Also, if Kotsay puts up a .292/.349/.434 line in say 250 AB's for the Sox (that was his line from 113 AB's with the Sox last season);

 

1 - Would you be happy with that from the DH platoon split?

2 - Is that line good enough to stop the Sox from acquiring a Lance Berkman at the deadline?

 

If Kotsay is hitting near .300, there is no way Ozzie stops playing him, so the second option may never happen.

 

If he's putting up that line, I'd be okay with it, just not in the 5th spot. At least that's near the average DH production.

[greg775]

If you don't like Kotsay, fine, but please people, don't act like Jones is a good option.

Kotsay's as good as Jones. We're talking about Jones, here, who like Kotsay, isn't a good option anymore.

[Balta1701]

If you don't like Kotsay, fine, but please people, don't act like Jones is a good option.

Kotsay's as good as Jones. We're talking about Jones, here, who like Kotsay, isn't a good option anymore.

It's possible that this will be true, but I'd say there's at least a reasonably good chance that Jones will prove you strongly incorrect.

[WCSox]

The problem is that Konerko might be top 10 in walks this year if Kotsay bats behind him. While walks aren't bad, they aren't singles and RBI opportunities.

 

If a better power threat bats 5th, Konerko has a better chance of actually seeing strikes and driving runs in.

 

This is the best argument for batting Rios 5th. Agreed that going with three lefties in a row is an odd way to go, but taking opportunities away from PK sounds like an even worse option.

 

My solution to this would be to give Jones more reps at DH, and have PK, AJP, Jones, Teahen in the middle of the lineup. His BA splits aren't overwhelmingly unfavorable against RHP. Going Kotsay/AJP/Teahen twice a week doesn't sound like the worst thing in the world to me.

 

[Balta1701]

This is the best argument for batting Rios 5th. Agreed that going with three lefties in a row is an odd way to go, but taking opportunities away from PK sounds like an even worse option.

 

My solution to this would be to give Jones more reps at DH, and have PK, AJP, Jones, Teahen in the middle of the lineup. His BA splits aren't overwhelmingly unfavorable against RHP. Going Kotsay/AJP/Teahen twice a week doesn't sound like the worst thing in the world to me.

The problem is...you're picking your poison here. Either you go Kotsay a couple times a week in the 5 spot, which is a weakness, or you're going 5 righties followed by 3 lefties, Alexei, then Pierre, which is a weak lineup late in games that could wind up causing Ozzie to use a lot of pinch hitters. I don't think it would take that much convincing in fact to insist to me that your method would be better in total runs scored, but might be worse in wins-losses, because the starting pitchers would have to face a better overall lineup, but any time a game got into the late innings close, that's where the disadvantage would be most strongly expressed.

 

Maybe your way is slightly better than Kotsay in the 5th hole, Maybe it's not. You can make a legitimate argument for either of them. Either way, there's a significant lineup flaw.

[jamesdiego]

This thread gives me a boner. And I'm not talking about the mere mention of Kotsay's wife. But if us mortals on a message board can figure this out, than I'm sure there are people getting in Ozzie's ear about this. Rios to 5, and play Jones over Kotsay damn it

[Ranger]

Theirs is just as good as ours right now.

 

We have the better rotation and bullpen, but they have one hell of an offense.

 

I'd say that our starting pitching is one tier better and our bullpen is one tier better. But their offense is somewhere near the likes of Boston and New York while we'll hover near the middle of the AL.

 

And that may just be good enough to win this division.

 

I don't think that the Rays have an "enormous" edge on us defensively. I know that it's wrong to compare our defensive prowess to recent Sox teams because frankly, we haven't been very good. The 2010 Sox may not be the best team in the league defensively, but we are vastly improved in this area and I think that we will end up being above average overall. JMHO.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure it's going to be "enormous" either. There is no reason the sox can't have a good defense.

 

 

This thread gives me a boner. And I'm not talking about the mere mention of Kotsay's wife. But if us mortals on a message board can figure this out, than I'm sure there are people getting in Ozzie's ear about this. Rios to 5, and play Jones over Kotsay damn it

 

I'd guarantee you that Ozzie has gone over it 1,000 times more than any of us have. And I would put down money that he would prefer to hit Rios 5th but is somewhat handcuffed by the LRLR thing, which is something ALL managers pay attention to. Like I said before, the Sox biggest issue in this regard is that none of the LHH's are very strong.

 

[Lillian]

this guy thinks andruw jones will hit better than konerko this year?

 

I assume that you were referring to my concern that Konerko no longer provides the presence of a bonafide clean up hitter.

I'm not saying that Jones will either, but I think that he has the potential to do so. If he doesn't, I suspect that the Sox will simply have an unfilled void at the number 4 spot in the lineup.

[ScottyDo]

I assume that you were referring to my concern that Konerko no longer provides the presence of a bonafide clean up hitter.

I'm not saying that Jones will either, but I think that he has the potential to do so. If he doesn't, I suspect that the Sox will simply have an unfilled void at the number 4 spot in the lineup.

Thats a scary though. I prefer to blindly believe that Konerko is still a god.

[Chisoxfn]

Did anyone else notice that every manager in baseball is a complete idiot because none of them used the lineup that statistically was best? How good is this stat, really, how good is it?

 

I'm asking cause I don't know, but I find it odd that every manager in baseball went with the wrong lineup.

[gatnom]

Did anyone else notice that every manager in baseball is a complete idiot because none of them used the lineup that statistically was best? How good is this stat, really, how good is it?

 

I'm asking cause I don't know, but I find it odd that every manager in baseball went with the wrong lineup.

 

I'm not really sure of the specifics behind the best lineup statistics, but I do remember seeing one that suggested Jim Thome be our leadoff hitter a couple years back, which is something I don't think any manager would even consider. So, it probably just conflicts with the more conventional approach to baseball like many statistics seem to do today.

 

Speaking of Big Jim, this line up could really use him right about now...

[kjshoe04]

This thread is hilarious. There is nobody that thinks he should bat 5th.

edit: except ozzie of course.

Edited April 7, 2010 by kjshoe04

[WCSox]

The problem is...you're picking your poison here. Either you go Kotsay a couple times a week in the 5 spot, which is a weakness, or you're going 5 righties followed by 3 lefties, Alexei, then Pierre, which is a weak lineup late in games that could wind up causing Ozzie to use a lot of pinch hitters. I don't think it would take that much convincing in fact to insist to me that your method would be better in total runs scored, but might be worse in wins-losses, because the starting pitchers would have to face a better overall lineup, but any time a game got into the late innings close, that's where the disadvantage would be most strongly expressed.

 

Maybe your way is slightly better than Kotsay in the 5th hole, Maybe it's not. You can make a legitimate argument for either of them. Either way, there's a significant lineup flaw.

 

You make a good point here. I agree that there's probably not a "best" solution, but at this point my "best" lineup would be: Pierre, Beckham, Q, PK, Rios, AJ, Jones, Teahen, Alexei. I'd be in favor of using Jones more than Kotsay right now for a few reasons: (1) he solves the L-L-L problem and allows Rios to protect PK, (2) he had a nice Spring, and (3) he's actually healthy now. The third point may be the most crucial, as most of us have little confidence that he'll be healthy for a full season. I'd ride him now while he's swinging the stick reasonably well and get as many W's with him as possible before he breaks down. When Jones DOES break down in another 2-3 months, we'll have a better idea of where this team's going. If the Sox are in first place and the pitching looks like it'll carry them down the stretch, Lance Berkman may be brought in to hit behind PK. If the Sox look like another sub-.500 team, it's a moot point.

 

I'd probably go with Monday's lineup twice a week. I imagine that Kotsay hitting behind PK only two days a week would be a decent compromise between RBI opportunities and late-inning matchups.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

I asked 2 questions in that post and you gave one answer, I didn't know for which question. I see that they have a better lineup & defense, but when you say:

 

"And whatever advantage we have in pitching gives way to the big edge they have on us in hitting and the ENORMOUS edge they have defensively."

 

Is that measurable or is it just what you think?

 

Both. And there's really no debate. The Rays were 5th, 5th, 3rd and 1st in the AL in R/HR/BB/SB IN 2009. The Sox were 12th, 6th, 9th, and 6th in those same categories. There's no realistic reason to believe at this point that the Rays won't have a better offense than the Sox. The gap in defense is even more significant. The Rays were ranked 1st and 2nd in all of baseball the last two years in UZR. They were ranked 1st and 8th the last two years in DER (defensive efficiency ranking). The Sox were ranked 21st and 27th in UZR the last two years. The Sox were ranked 20th and 16th the last two years in DER. This is just common sense (not saying you don't have any). The Sox have been a very bad defensive the last two years while the Rays have been the best.

 

I don't think that the Rays have an "enormous" edge on us defensively. I know that it's wrong to compare our defensive prowess to recent Sox teams because frankly, we haven't been very good. The 2010 Sox may not be the best team in the league defensively, but we are vastly improved in this area and I think that we will end up being above average overall. JMHO.

 

Yes, they do. They have above average, and in some cases, elite caliber defense, in LF/CF/3B/SS/1B. The White Sox have above average defense at exactly 1 position. And that's RF with Rios (or when they play him in CF). Alexei has the tools to be an above average defensive SS. But he's not there yet. PK is good at scooping up poor throws. But he has zero range. Everybody else is either below average or not proven yet. It's not even close.

 

Edit: Pierre has good range. But that arm.

Edited April 7, 2010 by Jordan4life

[chw42]

Both. And there's really no debate. The Rays were 5th, 5th, 3rd and 1st in the AL in R/HR/BB/SB IN 2009. The Sox were 12th, 6th, 9th, and 6th in those same categories. There's no realistic reason to believe at this point that the Rays won't have a better offense than the Sox. The gap in defense is even more significant. The Rays were ranked 1st and 2nd in all of baseball the last two years in UZR. They were ranked 1st and 8th the last two years in DER (defensive efficiency ranking). The Sox were ranked 21st and 27th in UZR the last two years. The Sox were ranked 20th and 16th the last two years in DER. This is just common sense (not saying you don't have any). The Sox have been a very bad defensive the last two years while the Rays have been the best.

 

 

 

Yes, they do. They have above average, and in some cases, elite caliber defense, in LF/CF/3B/SS/1B. The White Sox have above average defense at exactly 1 position. And that's RF with Rios (or when they play him in CF). Alexei has the tools to be an above average defensive SS. But he's not there yet. PK is good at scooping up poor throws. But he has zero range. Everybody else is either below average or not proven yet. It's not even close.

 

Edit: Pierre has good range. But that arm.

 

His range makes his lack of arm strength not all that troubling.

[chw42]

Did anyone else notice that every manager in baseball is a complete idiot because none of them used the lineup that statistically was best? How good is this stat, really, how good is it?

 

I'm asking cause I don't know, but I find it odd that every manager in baseball went with the wrong lineup.

 

It's hard to maximize a lineup completely.

 

Because what the stat believes is that the best hitters should be in the 4th, 5th, and 2nd spots, while the perception around baseball is that the best hitter should hit third and a contact guy should hit second.

 

According to that lineup optimizer tool, a more optimized and somewhat acceptable lineup would look something like this.

 

1. Beckham

2. Rios

3. Ramirez

4. Quentin

5. Konerko

6. Teahen

7. Pierzynski

8. Kotsay/Jones

9. Pierre

 

Beckham being our best OBP guy who can run, is hitting leadoff.

 

Rios being our 4th best hitter behind Beckham, Quentin, and Konerko should hit second. Quentin being our best run producer hits 4th and Konerko being next hits 5th.

 

Ramirez, being the 6th best hitter hits third.

 

Teahen and Pierzynski are next in line, put them at 6 and 7.

 

CHONE and most projection systems don't like Jones and Kotsay, so they go at 8.

 

And of course, the sabermetric world hates Pierre, so he's hitting 9th.

 

It does not take handedness into account, so that's why you have 4 straight left handed bats to round out the lineup, this also just proves that our left handed hitters pretty much suck.

 

This system is not without its flaws, but all of this was formulated through a lot of research. I wouldn't ignore it, but it's a nice measuring stick for just how much better our lineup could be.

 

I inserted the above lineup into the optimizer: http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...361&Model=0

 

That above lineup would score 4.908 runs.

 

The max amount of runs will be 4.921.

 

That's a difference of .013, which would have been one of the best optimized lineups on that list.

Edited April 7, 2010 by chw42

[WCSox]

His range makes his lack of arm strength not all that troubling.

 

Pierre looks weak defensively when he's compared to Crawford, but so does just about every other LF in the game.

 

I'll take Pierre's defense over that of Quentin, Pods, Carlos Lee, Albert Belle, etc.

 

You asked what roster would we take with an equal or lesser payroll and the Rays immediately came to my head. I didn't say they were a perfect team. They've got issues at 2B and C. RF might not be a big thing for them if they leave Zobrist out there, which he played tonight. How do I quantify their offense and defense vs our pitching? I don't understand what you're asking. They flat-out have a better lineup and their team defense is worlds better. You want me to provide stats? I shouldn't have to.

 

Of course they have a better lineup. They had a full decade of high draft picks. What's their excuse for not developing the same level of starting pitching that the Marlins did in 2003?

 

Edited April 7, 2010 by WCSox