How long of a leash does Freddy get?

[MHizzle85]

First, this isn't a thread meant to bash Freddy because I'm up for giving him a couple more starts.

 

But how long do we think that he stays in as the #5 guy in our rotation. How many bad starts? How much does he have to lose off of his fastball?

[dmbjeff]

First, this isn't a thread meant to bash Freddy because I'm up for giving him a couple more starts.

 

But how long do we think that he stays in as the #5 guy in our rotation. How many bad starts? How much does he have to lose off of his fastball?

 

This is what a 5th starter does. Serviceable for one start, bad for another. He would need to have about 4 more bad outings like tonight for him to be pulled I would think.

[Jordan4life_2007]

My post from the gamethread.

 

I really believe Freddy is going to have to go Chien-Ming Wang on us over the course of 4-5 starts for him to be removed from the rotation. I think they want to keep Hudson in AAA as long as possible to enhance his trade value. Let's face it: we don't do prospects. At least not ones that we draft. Gordon Beckham is a rare exception.

[bmags]

it's one game. Granted it's fun watching the shingo of starters. year 2.

[caulfield12]

The same amount of time Colon and Contreras had....

 

Well, less time than Contreras, a bit more than Colon. We had a lot more salary invested in Jose.

[SoxAce]

As I said in the predictions thread, and in another thread, I expect Huddy to have more of an impact this year than most people realize. Now I predicted he'll take over mid-season, but I'll let people here make up their own predicitons on what month and such. I hope to hell Freddy proves me wrong and is serviceable (and no, one good start and one bad start won't sway me either way) this season. I just have a strong feeling we'll be seeing more of Hudson (who the sox brass really likes) than people think.

Edited April 16, 2010 by SoxAce

[Jordan4life_2007]

As I said in the predictions thread, and in another thread, I expect Huddy to have more of an impact this year than most people realize. Now I predicted he'll take over mid-season, but I'll let people here make up their own predicitons on what month and such. I hope to hell Freddy proves me wrong and is serviceable (and no, one good start and one bad start won't sway me either way) this season. I just have a strong feeling we'll be seeing more of Hudson (who the sox brass really likes) than people think.

 

Our GM is Kenny Williams. That trumps all. Our Brass has liked a lot of guys. I think Hudson is gone by mid-season.

[SouthsideDon48]

I actually hope KW finds some sucker to take Scott Linebrink thanks to his performance so far, move Garcia to the bullpen to be the garbage long reliever, and call up Hudson to be the 5th starter.

 

Is this, anywhere in the realm of reality, possible?

[caulfield12]

I still think Linebrink has to prove he can protect 1-2-3 run leads in the 7th and 8th before any team would think about taking that contract.

 

It would be one thing if it was just this season, but it's also 2011, correct?

 

With the shift in the economic climate in the last two offseasons, I just think there's only about 5 teams in baseball that would dare to take a risk with Linebrink's contract at this latter stage in his career.

Edited April 16, 2010 by caulfield12

[bighurt4life]

I still think Linebrink has to prove he can protect 1-2-3 run leads in the 7th and 8th before any team would think about taking that contract.

 

It would be one thing if it was just this season, but it's also 2011, correct?

 

With the shift in the economic climate in the last two offseasons, I just think there's only about 5 teams in baseball that would dare to take a risk with Linebrink's contract at this latter stage in his career.

 

yes we have him signed for 5 mil in 2011 as well. i could also see us throwing 1-2 mil in the pot so we could get a bit more value out of a Linebrink trade that would also open up the number of teams who would be willing to take him.

[SoxAce]

Our GM is Kenny Williams. That trumps all. Our Brass has liked a lot of guys. I think Hudson is gone by mid-season.

 

The only player I've heard the sox really talk up and winded up trading was Chris Young. Even the great Gio, most people even here knew he wouldn't be here long. (didn't think it would be for Swisher however) I think knightni and fathom said it best in the game thread and I'll agree with their post since I've only said this to very few prospects in the past and have a decent percentage on guessing right (couple guys I flopped on were Reed [more or less my favorite spect ever, though I loved the trade for Freddy at the time], Honel, BA, Sweeney [jury still out]) sox will regret trading Hudson if they do. (don't get me wrong though if it's for a prime stud bat in a division race then by all means, but no Swisher type level guys) I'll stand by my opinion though so we'll see.

 

With the shift in the economic climate in the last two offseasons, I just think there's only about 5 teams in baseball that would dare to take a risk with Linebrink's contract at this latter stage in his career.

 

I would think the Cubs are one of the 5. And I think they would love to have him back in the NL. Question is not only money.. will Linebrink waive his no-trade, but to stay in Chicago? He is a very good teammate in the clubhouse by all accounts. Like I said before, the first half Linebrink doesn't bother me. It's the second half where he goes Brandon Lyons on us.

Edited April 16, 2010 by SoxAce

[Jordan4life_2007]

The only player I've heard the sox really talk up and winded up trading was Chris Young. Even the great Gio, most people even here knew he wouldn't be here long. (didn't think it would be for Swisher however) I think knightni and fathom said it best in the game thread and I'll agree with their post since I've only said this to very few prospects in the past and have a decent percentage on guessing right (couple guys I flopped on were Reed [more or less my favorite spect ever, though I loved the trade for Freddy at the time], Honel, BA, Sweeney [jury still out]) sox will regret trading Hudson if they do. I'll stand by my opinion though so we'll see.

 

Most people thought Gio would get traded a second time? I know I didn't. And KW has been saying since 2007 that at some point, if you want to have a sustained run of success, that you have to be able to "filter" in young talent from the minor leagues. I also remember him saying that he didn't want White Sox draftees to think they were only drafted to be developed and then eventually traded. Not those exact words. But he said something very similar. I bring those two instances up because KW was obviously talking out of his ass in that regard. I'd be shocked (I mean really shocked) if Hudson is here past the deadline.

Edited April 16, 2010 by Jordan4life

[SoxAce]

Most people thought Gio would get traded a second time? I know I didn't. And KW has been saying since 2007 that at some point, if you want to have a sustained run of success, that you have to be able to "filter" in young talent from the minor leagues. I also remember him saying that he didn't want White Sox draftees to think they were only drafted to be developed and then eventually traded. Not those exact words. But he said something very similar. I bring those two instances up because KW was obviously talking out of his ass in that regard. I'd be shocked (I mean really shocked) if Hudson is here past the deadline.

 

Yes sir. Go back to old futuresox threads. Some guys were half kidding about the odds of it (especially when KW told Gio to his face he won't be traded again) but after repeating AA in B-Ham to sexy up those numbers with that curve however, some here called it. doc, rock or ms can comment on this if they want, but supposedly the sox were already hesitant to trade Huddy this winter in a deal. (again.. not too sure on it, guys with inside knowledge can choose to comment or not) I wouldn't put it past them to do so, but I just don't see it happening unless it's for another stud young pitcher they like (ala B-Mac deal) when no pitcher (even the top prospects, though most have flopped anyway) have ever moved up 4 levels in one season, and pitched pretty well in the bigs. I can't see KW acquiring a young pitcher however in a division race (yes I think we will be in a race come the deadline) and say Freddy flops or gets injured. I think it will the usual unknown spect that most people here won't know about except spect freaks like myself (ozzie ball, dan, jas, thunder, msfan, jpn, scenario, daa, etc.. or guys that follow the minors and know some guys) in the lower levels that will explode to the scene (ala De Los Santos) that will be hyped alot to trade (hopefully not Nate Jones for example.. though I can see it) along with say.. Flowers, Viciedo etc.. This is KW your right, but I don't see it happening, and judging by your predictions in the past makes me even more confident in mine.

Edited April 16, 2010 by SoxAce

[caulfield12]

It all depends on where the White Sox are positioned.

 

If it's clear that Minnesota and Detroit are the class of the division, trading Hudson at midseason (like the reshuffling with Peavy and Rios) makes even less sense because last year you could make a legitimate argument we were close enough to first to justify it.

 

Trading Flowers/Danks/Hudson is intuitively illogical if we're a .500 ballclub, because I really think Minnesota will be a 92-95 win team. DET, not so sure about 90, but they're definitely looking like they have more offensive firepower, a decent starting rotation and a pretty good bullpen.

 

It's quite scary to think that a rehabbing Mitchell and Viciedo would be left as our only top prospects...and maybe a couple of DeLosSantos types emerge at the lower levels...someone like Thompson would have to light up the scouts' charts/reports.

 

Floyd and Danks have proved that it always comes down to having good, young pitching...as someone else said, it's got to be a premium player (probably a hitter), but the problem is that we don't have much payroll flexibility to add a "premium" salary at this point, especially if we continue to play .500 ball and the crowd support in Chicago is more or less tepid in April/May/June. Berkman? How could we afford him, even for half the season?

Edited April 16, 2010 by caulfield12

[Jordan4life_2007]

Yes sir. Go back to old futuresox threads. Some guys were half kidding about the odds of it (especially when KW told Gio to his face he won't be traded again) but after repeating AA in B-Ham to sexy up those numbers with that curve however, some here called it. doc, rock or ms can comment on this if they want, but supposedly the sox were already hesitant to trade Huddy this winter in a deal. (again.. not too sure on it, guys with inside knowledge can choose to comment or not) I wouldn't put it past them to do so, but I just don't see it happening unless it's for another stud young pitcher they like (ala B-Mac deal) when no pitcher (even the top prospects, though most have flopped anyway) have ever moved up 4 levels in one season, and pitched pretty well in the bigs. I can't see KW acquiring a young pitcher however in a division race (yes I think we will be in a race come the deadline) and say Freddy flops or gets injured. I think it will the usual spect that most people here except spect freaks like myself (ozzie ball, dan, jas, thunder, msfan, jpn, etc..) in the lower levels explode to the scene (ala De Los Santos) that will be hyped alot to trade (hopefully not Nate Jones for example.. though I can see it) along with say.. Flowers, Viciedo etc.. This is KW your right, but I don't see it happening, and judging by your predictions in the past makes me even more confident in mine.

 

The bold is why I'm about 75% certain Hudson will be traded. They did the same thing with Dexter Carter last year. And the only prediction of mine recently that I can remember that flopped was me saying GB wasn't ready for The Show. So be quiet. lol. I will say my worst prediction ever was during the September fade in 2005. I said even if they somehow backed in they'd get swept by whoever they played in the ALDS (that cock face Rowand44 reminds me about that one every now and then).

[SoxAce]

It's quite scary to think that a rehabbing Mitchell and Viciedo would be left as our only top prospects...and maybe a couple of DeLosSantos types emerge at the lower levels...someone like Thompson would have to light up the scouts' charts/reports.

 

That's what J4L alluded too and I'll agree on him with. That won't be for long of course with the draft in the summer and the sox picking 14th this year I believe (and high in the rounds after) which will be nice to kinda "restock" the system. I don't want to morgage our cards (won't call the spects "future" that much anymore) in the deck for one guy who is either old or is signed for a season (and a half especially when another young stud could be available the next season) unless KW feels that is the ultimate piece to a W.S. title, and I mean REALLY feels it.

 

The bold is why I'm about 75% certain Hudson will be traded. They did the same thing with Dexter Carter last year.

 

No they didn't. Carter was drafted just last season and only stayed in low A cause the sox felt he needed work on his secondary pitches despite owning in low A. Hudson was much more advanced in his secondary stuff, hence why he moved up, and Carter stayed. Eventually the sox felt Carter might not ever figure it out or not harness it like they want and shipped him out (along with Poreda thank god, and Russell) for Peavy though I know wite would say that was more of a give-a-way for the Padres in his drunk rants. Hudson was long rumored to be what SD wanted.. the sox kept him (though you can debate he might had been in the first trade Peavy rejected, when Huddy was in W-S though those are rumors) Not arguing he might be traded cause he very well could, but I don't think the sox will nor should (especially with no depth after Hudson, with Freddy who I don't trust personally.. again.. hope he proves me wrong)

Edited April 16, 2010 by SoxAce

[DBAHO]

I think they'll re-evaluate things at the end of May. If the Sox are behind in the standings by quite a bit and Garcia has an ERA north of 5.50, then I think you'll see a change there with Hudson.

 

Otherwise they'll give him longer. Only 1 bad start for Freddy so far, so hopefully he can bounce back in the next outing.

[Balta1701]

I think they'll re-evaluate things at the end of May. If the Sox are behind in the standings by quite a bit and Garcia has an ERA north of 5.50, then I think you'll see a change there with Hudson.

 

Otherwise they'll give him longer. Only 1 bad start for Freddy so far, so hopefully he can bounce back in the next outing.

The other reason why the end of may is key...That's the super-2 deadline. You keep Hudson in the minors until then you save an arbitration year, just like they did with Beckham last year.

[southsider2k5]

Think about it in this vein, if the Sox promote Hudson and get rid of Garcia, who do they have to trade if they want to get another bat? In any trade where a really good hitter would be included you have to have a really good pitching prospect included. Hudson is that guy for the Sox.

[joeynach]

Feddy is a junk ball pitcher. His fastball never tops 88 mph, its a show me pitch. If he isnt locating his junk or inducing nasty swings, something u can tell by the 2nd inning, then he is going to get hit hard. Floating junk around the plate at 82 MPH usually gets hit hard. Ill say he gets 6-8 starts. If he cant keep his ERA around 4.5 or lower then hes gone.

[caulfield12]

I think 4.50 is pretty unrealistic for Garcia at this point.

 

Anything above 5.25 or so, that would be the "danger zone" for Freddy.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Before commenting, let's all take a moment to re-read the Hardball times piece from a few years ago giving the average ERA of each starting position throughout the league.

[WCSox]

It all depends on where the White Sox are positioned.

 

If it's clear that Minnesota and Detroit are the class of the division, trading Hudson at midseason (like the reshuffling with Peavy and Rios) makes even less sense because last year you could make a legitimate argument we were close enough to first to justify it.

 

Trading Flowers/Danks/Hudson is intuitively illogical if we're a .500 ballclub, because I really think Minnesota will be a 92-95 win team. DET, not so sure about 90, but they're definitely looking like they have more offensive firepower, a decent starting rotation and a pretty good bullpen.

 

I completely agree with this. If the Sox aren't playing competitively with MIN and DET by July, it's highly unlikely that any of the top prospects are going anywhere. It's a lot more likely that one of the other starters would be dealt this winter or next summer, with Hudson stepping into their spot next year.

 

Also agree that keeping Hudson in the minors long enough to push back his arbitration-eligible years will carry more weight than Freddy blowing it every other week. If Hudsonis brought up this year, it won't be for a while.

Edited April 16, 2010 by WCSox

[caulfield12]

It will be interesting to see what becomes of Jenks, Konerko, AJ and Buehrle. They're the last four surviving links to 2005.

 

Hard to imagine parting with all four before 2011. It's going to be the key decision of KW's tenure about moving Buehrle/Floyd/Danks. Danks would seem like the logical choice, since he's been more unwilling to accept a "favorable" (below market value) contract from the club perspective.

 

Santos=Jenks

Viciedo=Konerko (in a perfect world, certainly not with a 600 OPS so far at Charlotte)

Flowers=AJ

 

Hudson can take the place of Danks. It really scares me to trade Danks over Floyd, simply because I think Danks is going to end up as the better pitcher looking back 5 years from now...

 

It does make for a much more interesting trade if you're the Padres....although Danks starts to look more and more expensive in arbitration, like Jenks has become. Danks/Danks/Flowers will definitely get you Adrian Gonzalez. Or Danks/Santos/Flowers.

 

The problem is that KW has to pull another rabbit out of his hat to replace that other spot in the starting rotation. It's not likely to be Torres, Marquez, Cassell, Harrell, Hynick, etc.

 

What I'd like to see is whether there's ANY possibility in the world to convert Sergio Santos into a starting pitcher. It's a 1/20 shot, but it's worth kicking the tires on. Letting him "stretch" out and develop his offspeed stuff would have nothing but positive consequences for his development.

 

If we saved all the money from Jenks, Konerko and AJ, we could use it to resign Gonzalez long-term.

 

Or something I don't believe I'm saying, bringing back Jermaine Dye to play 1B....if we don't pay Konerko $10-15 million for 2 years and/or Viciedo is FAIL.

 

 

Edited April 16, 2010 by caulfield12

[chw42]

Freddy's velocity was really bad yesterday, he was only around 87 and never got it up above 90.

 

But if he keeps throwing around 90-92 like he did against the Twins, he should be ok.

 

I don't know what it is, but it appears that our pitchers are losing velocity up there in Toronto.