This article on the Sox's BABIP...

[Greg Hibbard]

http://www.southsidesox.com/2010/4/19/1430141/babip-math

 

I looked for this elsewhere (sorry if I missed it), and was originally going to post this in the catch all, but I think it's just too big of an issue and deserves its own thread, especially since the article seems to indicate it's a 3+ year ongoing thing.

 

When identifying offensive players, the article would seem to suggest that we are overlooking BABIP in favor of oversimplifying our needs based on stats like OPS. Since 2007, we have been near last in the category of BABIP, and the article further suggests that it's not possible that we are just "unlucky" over the course of three seasons, that's there's basically a 3% chance that living outside of the norm can be atributed to "luck".

 

The poster child for a stat like this is Paul Konerko, whose career BABIP is .281. The league average BABIP is between .290 and .300. This is a guy who hits enough home runs, certainly has a high enough OBA, and seems to have a batting average and slg about where it should be. However, he's apparently not hitting enough "plain old hits" and that's what the white sox need more of.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=1B

 

Surprisingly, Carlos Quentin also has an extremely low BABIP over the course of his career thus far, despite a fine OPS.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

 

Ironically, a guy like Alex Rios will allegedly help us in our cause (he has a way above average career BABIP).

[caulfield12]

Cue the Nick Swisher discussion again....joking!

[chw42]

http://www.southsidesox.com/2010/4/19/1430141/babip-math

 

I looked for this elsewhere (sorry if I missed it), and was originally going to post this in the catch all, but I think it's just too big of an issue and deserves its own thread, especially since the article seems to indicate it's a 3+ year ongoing thing.

 

When identifying offensive players, the article would seem to suggest that we are overlooking BABIP in favor of oversimplifying our needs based on stats like OPS. Since 2007, we have been near last in the category of BABIP, and the article further suggests that it's not possible that we are just "unlucky" over the course of three seasons, that's there's basically a 3% chance that living outside of the norm can be atributed to "luck".

 

The poster child for a stat like this is Paul Konerko, whose career BABIP is .281. The league average BABIP is between .290 and .300. This is a guy who hits enough home runs, certainly has a high enough OBA, and seems to have a batting average and slg about where it should be. However, he's apparently not hitting enough "plain old hits" and that's what the white sox need more of.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=1B

 

Surprisingly, Carlos Quentin also has an extremely low BABIP over the course of his career thus far, despite a fine OPS.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

 

Ironically, a guy like Alex Rios will allegedly help us in our cause (he has a way above average career BABIP).

 

This would seem pretty obvious. This team is built around power. Power hitters usually have very low BABIPs since they hit more fly balls than anything else and fly balls are the least likely to yield a hit other than a home run.

[caulfield12]

Except Juan Pierre is a flyball hitter without having any power...

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Except Juan Pierre is a flyball hitter without having any power...

 

Except for the fact that that isn't true...

[chw42]

Except Juan Pierre is a flyball hitter without having any power...

 

Juan Pierre hits 55% of his balls in play into the ground. He's a dead ground ball hitter.

[southsideirish71]

This would seem pretty obvious. This team is built around power. Power hitters usually have very low BABIPs since they hit more fly balls than anything else and fly balls are the least likely to yield a hit other than a home run.

 

This team is built around power? Really. Maybe they think that, but its not true. We have a lot of guys who have some pop, but I wouldn't consider them power hitters.

 

Kotsay, Rios, AJ, Beckham, Pierre, Teahan, Ramirez are not power hitters.

 

Konerko. Quentin and hell even Jones are power hitters.

 

This team should definately trend toward the norm in BABIP and not be this out of wack. Our team should be more line drive oriented with our guys. And before someone throws out the luck standpoint of BABIP. We must be the most unlucky team then, because we have trended towards the bottom in the league in BABIP for the last 3 years.

 

 

 

[Greg Hibbard]

This would seem pretty obvious. This team is built around power. Power hitters usually have very low BABIPs since they hit more fly balls than anything else and fly balls are the least likely to yield a hit other than a home run.

 

You'd think so, but I'll bet there are also a few low BABIP players who just hit a ton of weak grounders.

here's an example

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

 

here's another example of a guy maybe we made the wrong decision with in the offseason, based on his BABIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

[chw42]

This team is built around power? Really. Maybe they think that, but its not true. We have a lot of guys who have some pop, but I wouldn't consider them power hitters.

 

Kotsay, Rios, AJ, Beckham, Pierre, Teahan, Ramirez are not power hitters.

 

Konerko. Quentin and hell even Jones are power hitters.

 

This team should definately trend toward the norm in BABIP and not be this out of wack. Our team should be more line drive oriented with our guys. And before someone throws out the luck standpoint of BABIP. We must be the most unlucky team then, because we have trended towards the bottom in the league in BABIP for the last 3 years.

 

Notice how the article says "since 2007".

 

I was not referring to only this 2010 team.

 

BABIP is something that is specific to each individual hitter when you talk about offense, it's dependent upon the style of hitter. The White Sox have a bunch of fly ball and ground ball hitters and not enough guys who emphasize on line drives. Rios and Beckham might be the only ones that have very high LD%.

 

Last year, the Sox were last in LD%. In 08 they were 21st. In 07 they were 27th.

 

We've also led the league in FB% back in 08 and last year, we were 7th.

 

This team's low BABIP makes sense. It's the sacrifice you have to make when you have Greg Walker as your hitting coach and you play in one of the smallest ballparks in baseball.

[chw42]

You'd think so, but I'll bet there are also a few low BABIP players who just hit a ton of weak grounders.

here's an example

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

 

here's another example of a guy maybe we made the wrong decision with in the offseason, based on his BABIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

 

Pods overachieved last year, his career BABIP was .322 heading into last year and he overachieved it by nearly 19 points.

 

You simply can't make player decisions based on BABIP. It's not a stat that's a deciding factor for much of anything. It just tells you what type of hitter the player is and sometimes, how lucky or unlucky he was due to sample size disparity.

 

 

[Greg Hibbard]

Pods overachieved last year, his career BABIP was .322 heading into last year and he overachieved it by nearly 19 points.

 

You simply can't make player decisions based on BABIP. It's not a stat that's a deciding factor for much of anything. It just tells you what type of hitter the player is and sometimes, how lucky or unlucky he was due to sample size disparity.

 

 

The point is that his CAREER babip is .322.

[chw42]

The point is that his CAREER babip is .322.

 

And Juan Pierre's is .317.

 

 

 

 

[chw42]

This team is built around power? Really. Maybe they think that, but its not true. We have a lot of guys who have some pop, but I wouldn't consider them power hitters.

 

Kotsay, Rios, AJ, Beckham, Pierre, Teahan, Ramirez are not power hitters.

 

Konerko. Quentin and hell even Jones are power hitters.

 

This team should definately trend toward the norm in BABIP and not be this out of wack. Our team should be more line drive oriented with our guys. And before someone throws out the luck standpoint of BABIP. We must be the most unlucky team then, because we have trended towards the bottom in the league in BABIP for the last 3 years.

 

We probably are, but that's just as byproduct of a team with a power hitting mentality. You're going to hit a lot of balls hard right at someone.

 

Plus, you also have to consider that since the White Sox hit so many home runs and that BABIP does not account for home runs, that also comes into play.

[Disco72]

Everyone seems to notice that the Sox have had a historically below average team in relation to BABIP since 2007.

 

However, the point nobody seems to be discussing is that even expecting the Sox to have a below average BABIP in 2010, the team is still waaaaaaay below what should be expected. Therefore, this is either one of the worst teams in the last 3-5 years (based on BABIP)...or, the team has been uncharacteristically bad and unlucky these first two weeks and should trend back towards a more typical number.

[chw42]

Everyone seems to notice that the Sox have had a historically below average team in relation to BABIP since 2007.

 

However, the point nobody seems to be discussing is that even expecting the Sox to have a below average BABIP in 2010, the team is still waaaaaaay below what should be expected. Therefore, this is either one of the worst teams in the last 3-5 years (based on BABIP)...or, the team has been uncharacteristically bad and unlucky these first two weeks and should trend back towards a more typical number.

 

I say the second one.

[caulfield12]

Except for the fact that that isn't true...

 

 

What is it so far this season?

 

His GO/FO ratio?

 

Seems every time I've listened to a game, he's hit a couple of balls into the OF that were caught.

 

 

[chw42]

What is it so far this season?

 

His GO/FO ratio?

 

Seems every time I've listened to a game, he's hit a couple of balls into the OF that were caught.

 

2.50, which is super high.

 

He's hit 58.1% ground balls thus far.

[SoxAce]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

 

Ironically, a guy like Alex Rios will allegedly help us in our cause (he has a way above average career BABIP).

 

I think anyone would tell you they knew that about Rios just by watching him. Dude has been hitting the ball right on the money... right at people.

[Greg Hibbard]

They will definitely trend back to a more realistic number, but the real question is whether having one of the worst BABIP's has affected our win total in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Edited April 19, 2010 by Greg Hibbard

[caulfield12]

And how we became such a terrible home team in 2009 after playing so well for most of the decade at home.

 

Strange, and hard to understand/explain.

[joeynach]

Cue the Nick Swisher discussion again....joking!

 

Yeah I remember thats what they said about Swisher in 2008, that his BABIP was so low that he was essentially having a super unlucky year. But I do believe in BABIP, it really shows you an important characteristic. Do your hitters tend to hit hard balls right at ppl, do they hit a lot of easy pop ups and weak grounders when they dont make good contact. I think 2007-2009 I would expect to see a low BABIP, we had a plethora of lift and pull, kind of all or nothing hitters. And the nothing would rarely be a productive out. As 2010 looks you would assume things would be different becuase the lineup turned over quite a bit. We inserted a career .300 hitter at the top, have a full season with our best hitter Beckham, added a traditionally good BABIP in Rios for a fulls season etc. So as it seems the sox did address their poor performance in this category, so for it just hasn't worked out. My observations of the sox season so far is, think of anything that could go wrong to contribute to a loss at any given point, and so far that has come to fruition every single time. Ill give this team till the end of June. If they are still way under .500 the 2010 roster remake is a bust.

Edited April 19, 2010 by joeynach

[BFirebird]

Everyone seems to notice that the Sox have had a historically below average team in relation to BABIP since 2007.

 

However, the point nobody seems to be discussing is that even expecting the Sox to have a below average BABIP in 2010, the team is still waaaaaaay below what should be expected. Therefore, this is either one of the worst teams in the last 3-5 years (based on BABIP)...or, the team has been uncharacteristically bad and unlucky these first two weeks and should trend back towards a more typical number.

I would also say the 2nd one. There is NO WAY a team could hit .220 BABIP for an entire year, unless this is the deadball era again. They will get back up to .280-ish like the article insinuated and hopefully become an average offense. That being said...they still need to get a stick in here and just release Kotsay at this point.

[Greg Hibbard]

 

Year/Team BABIP/Home Run Total/Runs Scored/Team ERA/Win Total

 

2009/.285/184/724/4.14/79

2008/.281/235/811/4.06/89

 

2007/.278/190/693/4.77/72 (not surprising)

 

2006/.305/236/868/4.61/90

2005/.285/200/741/3.61/99

 

I think this pretty much tells the whole story. In 2008 and 2009 they had similar team ERA, but hit so many more homers in 2008 that it essentially gave them 10 more wins.

 

In 2005, the team pitched its ass off and it's the only way it was able to ultimately compensate for its corpseball alter-ego.

 

So, either we have to hit 200+ jacks or pitch to a 3.5 ERA all season.

[caulfield12]

And the other common factors were how good the 2005 and 2008 bullpens were...that's one of the underestimated areas, but there's always a correlation.

 

Remember all the problems auditioning about 10-15 LHR in spring training, and NONE of them worked out, except Javier Lopez, who we traded to the Red Sox for some reason?

 

I'm sure along with overall team ERA, you'll see an inverse relationship (is that the right term, lol?) with the bullpen results (and lack thereof) for 2005-2009.

[ThunderBolt]

Swish's 2008 is a good example of an odd BABIP year, Jay Bruce's 2009 is another. Oddly, enough where Swish recovered the year after, Bruce has come out of the gate even unluckier.