4/20 games

[NorthSideSox72]

Durham @ Charlotte with an early start, 10:15am CT, Marquez on the mound

 

Jacksonville @ Birmingham, 7:05pm CT, Nunez (0-1, 4.50) starting

 

Winston-Salem @ Myrtle Beach, 6:05pm CT, Jones (0-1, 2.79) starting

 

Kannapolis @ Rome, 6:00pm CT, Doyle (1-1, 0.69) starting

 

[scenario]

Marquez was cruising along pretty well until giving up a 3-run dinger in the 4th.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Danks with another hit to get up to .306. Atta boy, at least some positive offensive developments SOMEWHERE to discuss.

 

Now 2/3, .320. 1.014 OPS.

Edited April 20, 2010 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

D2 2-for-3 now, plus an SB. Up to .320. Currently at 14 K in 50 AB on the season though, that's still very high.

 

 

[maggsmaggs]

I know I am being stubborn, but until I see significant improvements in that K rate (28% k-rate is actually worse than last year) I cannot take him seriously as an offensive player. Yes, I understand that I will be ridiculued by overlooking his extra-base hits, great average thus far, ability to walk and stolen bases, but I do not have faith he can do any of that at the major league level with such a poor contact rate. Flame away.

Edited April 20, 2010 by maggsmaggs

[NorthSideSox72]

I know I am being stubborn, but until I see significant improvements in that K rate (28% k rate is not improvement in my books) I cannot take him seriously as an offensive player. Yes, I understand that I will be ridiculued by overlooking his extra-base hits, great average thus far, ability to walk and stolen bases, but I do not have faith he can do any of that at the major league level with such a poor contact rate. Flame away.

Its definitely worrisome. You'd hope he could be something akin to Sizemore, in that he can hit a bit, run, field his position very well, but still K a lot.

 

As a comparison, Sizemore had 72 K in 418 AB in his AAA year, for a 17% rate. So Danks is well above that.

 

[bigruss]

I know I am being stubborn, but until I see significant improvements in that K rate (28% k-rate is actually worse than last year) I cannot take him seriously as an offensive player. Yes, I understand that I will be ridiculued by overlooking his extra-base hits, great average thus far, ability to walk and stolen bases, but I do not have faith he can do any of that at the major league level with such a poor contact rate. Flame away.

Totally agree, I just think of Chris Young. He has lots of potential, and is a very exciting player to have coming up, but he will struggle mightily at the ML level if he doesnt cut down on strikeouts.

[Ozzie Ball]

I know I am being stubborn, but until I see significant improvements in that K rate (28% k-rate is actually worse than last year) I cannot take him seriously as an offensive player. Yes, I understand that I will be ridiculued by overlooking his extra-base hits, great average thus far, ability to walk and stolen bases, but I do not have faith he can do any of that at the major league level with such a poor contact rate. Flame away.

It depends what you're expecting from him. Players can have success with that kind of K% but his upside may be something along the lines of .260/.340/.420.

[NorthSideSox72]

It depends what you're expecting from him. Players can have success with that kind of K% but his upside may be something along the lines of .260/.340/.420.

What players have been successful major league starters who were K'ing at a 25%+ rate in AAA?

 

[maggsmaggs]

Its definitely worrisome. You'd hope he could be something akin to Sizemore, in that he can hit a bit, run, field his position very well, but still K a lot.

 

As a comparison, Sizemore had 72 K in 418 AB in his AAA year, for a 17% rate. So Danks is well above that.

I am sure sabermetric guys can tell you what a AAA K-rate would likely translate to in the Majors, but just in my own guestimate, that would be close to 33% or 200 strikeouts in a 600-at-bat season. That clearly is horrible. I have always thought of him as a Grady Sizemore-lite player b/c Danks has a similar skill set, but much less power and less speed. I know the Sox won't do it, but I think trading him would be the best course of action. Obviously that would probably be detrimental in trying to sign John long-term, but I just cannot see Danks being more than an average offensive talent. I really hope I am proven wrong because he brings the athleticism that we need. But people are going to get frustrated very easily with him when he Ks with a runner on second with no outs or Ks with a runner on third and less than two outs.

[scenario]

I know I am being stubborn, but until I see significant improvements in that K rate (28% k-rate is actually worse than last year) I cannot take him seriously as an offensive player. Yes, I understand that I will be ridiculued by overlooking his extra-base hits, great average thus far, ability to walk and stolen bases, but I do not have faith he can do any of that at the major league level with such a poor contact rate. Flame away.

 

I think that's fair. If AAA pitchers strike him out 28% of the time, then major league pitchers might eat him alive.

 

I still believe the source of the problem is him pulling his head off the ball during his swing. If so, then I'm more encouraged than if it was a problem judging balls and strikes... or having a big loopy swing. I think good coaching can help him address it. And Chris Chambliss is an ideal guy to be working with him.

Edited April 20, 2010 by scenario

[maggsmaggs]

Just did some quick math of big strikeout hitters first year in AAA and first extended action in the Majors comparing the K-rates.

 

Player (AAA K-rate/MLB K-rate)

 

Ryan Howard (31.5%/32.1%)

Mark Reynolds (24%/35.2%)

Adam Dunn (24.3%/30.3%)

Grady Sizemore (17.2%/24.6%)

Curtis Granderson (29%/26.5%)

Joe Borchard (31.7%/28.3%)

Jack Cust (23%/26.6%)

 

Everyone's K-rate went up except Borchard and Granderson. Borchard though had two season at the MLB level that gave him like 60 at-bats and 70 at-bats, so I didn't include those because the sample size I didn't deem big enough. Together, they aveage an increase of 3.4% at the major league level. Maybe Danks could pull a Granderson and cut his K-rate at the MLB level, but I am guessing he would fall more in line with the rest.

[danman31]

Just did some quick math of big strikeout hitters first year in AAA and first extended action in the Majors comparing the K-rates.

 

Player (AAA K-rate/MLB K-rate)

 

Ryan Howard (31.5%/32.1%)

Mark Reynolds (24%/35.2%)

Adam Dunn (24.3%/30.3%)

Grady Sizemore (17.2%/24.6%)

Curtis Granderson (29%/26.5%)

Joe Borchard (31.7%/28.3%)

Jack Cust (23%/26.6%)

 

Everyone's K-rate went up except Borchard and Granderson. Borchard though had two season at the MLB level that gave him like 60 at-bats and 70 at-bats, so I didn't include those because the sample size I didn't deem big enough. Together, they aveage an increase of 3.4% at the major league level. Maybe Danks could pull a Granderson and cut his K-rate at the MLB level, but I am guessing he would fall more in line with the rest.

The problem is, which of those players does Danks have as much power as? Sizemore maybe? Sizemore owns him in contact rate so that doesn't really apply. I have a FutureSox post a few touches away from being posted on this subject. You and I agree.

[NorthSideSox72]

Charlotte lost 11-0. Nothing but ugly in that game for the Knights.

 

[scenario]

Charlotte lost 11-0. Nothing but ugly in that game for the Knights.

 

And since Durham is the Rays AAA team, let's hope it's not a foreshadowing of the next few days for the big clubs.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

The problem is, which of those players does Danks have as much power as? Sizemore maybe? Sizemore owns him in contact rate so that doesn't really apply. I have a FutureSox post a few touches away from being posted on this subject. You and I agree.

 

Exactly. Until Danks develops 30 HR power, or something outstanding about his offensive game, there is no reason to believe that his K rate won't kill him at the major league level. You can deal with the Ks when you are getting a HR every 12 ABs or so. I can't see it working otherwise.

[SoxAce]

The problem is, which of those players does Danks have as much power as? Sizemore maybe? Sizemore owns him in contact rate so that doesn't really apply.

 

Theres your key. If Danks was hitting 25+ homers at the MLB (even hitting at the cell might not help) that would help off-set his K's not to mention his good walk rate. But he so far has not shown his only thing development wise scouts were worried about. Viciedo will be fine as far as K rate since he will hit for power. I just don't see that from Danks unless he starts K'ing less, or hitting for more power, or even more contact. Now.. if he's walking at a 80+ clip that could help with his OBP, but I don't see that either from him.

Edited April 20, 2010 by SoxAce

[Ozzie Ball]

Kannapolis going into extras.

Trayce Thompson currently 2-3, HR, BB, 0 SO.

[DirtySox]

Kannapolis going into extras.

Trayce Thompson currently 2-3, HR, BB, 0 SO.

 

Power and walks. Hopefully we continue see both. The K-rate in rookie ball was scary.

[daa84]

thompson is getting me moderately excited

[ThunderBolt]

thompson is getting me moderately excited

He's taking a nice step forward. Hopefully, this promotion was a kick in the pants.

[scenario]

Shelby's last 6 games...

 

2-4

4-5

1-4

4-8

2-5

2-4

----

15 for 30, with 5 doubles and a homerun

 

When you're hot, you're hot.

 

 

[flavum]

Brent Morel with a few knocks at AA. He's heating up a little.

[scenario]

Jon Gilmore goes 3-5 to raise his average to .388 on the season.

 

He has had 2 or more hits in 7 of his last 10 games.

Edited April 21, 2010 by scenario

[scenario]

Nathan Jones with another very solid outing...

 

6 2/3 innings; 1 run on 3 hits; 5K's and 1BB.

 

So far on the season, in 16 1/3 innings, he has 17K's and 4 BB's.