What would you be willing to give Danks to extend

[witesoxfan]

The Sox would be rather lucky to lock him up to a deal that looks like this:

 

'11: $6M

'12: $9M

'13: $12M (first year of free agency)

'14: $14M (second year of free agency)

 

That's 4 years, $41M guaranteed with no option. Allowing him to hit free agency at age 30. I think you have to guarantee 4 years, they'd be incredibly lucky to include a 5th year team option.

 

You have to pay a premium when the player is only 2 years shy of free agency.

 

I was thinking $7-$9-$11-$13 with a TO for $15 mill or a $2 mill buy out, so we're on the same page.

[chisoxfan09]

Is it too ridculous at ths point in their careers to compare John Danks to a Johan Santana Lite? They have similar deliveries and Danks' offspeed stuff/breaking ball is really starting to shine as an excellent and potent combo to his fastball. His FB touched 93 on the radar yesterday so I think he can hit 94-95 or is this just me on koolaid?

 

** Note ** Although IIRC Sanatana has a nasty slider as well.

Edited April 26, 2010 by chisoxfan09

[Soxfest]

The Sox would be rather lucky to lock him up to a deal that looks like this:

 

'11: $6M

'12: $9M

'13: $12M (first year of free agency)

'14: $14M (second year of free agency)

 

That's 4 years, $41M guaranteed with no option. Allowing him to hit free agency at age 30. I think you have to guarantee 4 years, they'd be incredibly lucky to include a 5th year team option.

 

You have to pay a premium when the player is only 2 years shy of free agency.

 

That looks about what it will take to get it done!

[Steve9347]

John Danks is going to get a lot of money.

[SouthsideDon48]

I think I would wait until the last or 2nd-to-last arbitration year before trying to extend Danks. That way, the Sox can maximize the amount of years they have Danks.

 

Also, I think the real reason why Danks didn't extend last year is because he's waiting to see where his brother Jordan ends up in the majors. I think by the time the Sox try to extend John, Jordan will be on the Sox major league roster and John might be willing to give the Sox a discount.

 

If the Sox still have to free up payroll in order to afford Danks, then I think they should look into trading Floyd, because I think Floyd's contract would be considered a bargain.

 

I also think Floyd can be replaced by Daniel Hudson if Hudson is as good as advertised.

[caulfield12]

SS, the longer we wait, the higher the price tag...every start, he becomes more and more expensive to retain in the future.

 

Just like Andruw Jones...but we'll worry about that bridge being crossed in August/September undoubtedly.

 

Combine that with uncertainty over Peavy/Floyd and Mark Buehrle's pronouncements you ABSOLUTELY have to keep him, like the Twins did with Mauer, although I'm not going to say they are quite equal...Mauer's a once a generation hitter....Danks is one of the top 3-4 lefties in all of baseball, but you get the point. And yes, there's a extra 10-20% premium because of his age and being left-handed and not a soft-tosser by any stretch of the imagination when he's on.

Edited April 26, 2010 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

SS, the longer we wait, the higher the price tag...every start, he becomes more and more expensive to retain in the future.

 

Just like Andruw Jones...but we'll worry about that bridge being crossed in August/September undoubtedly.

 

Combine that with uncertainty over Peavy/Floyd and Mark Buehrle's pronouncements you ABSOLUTELY have to keep him, like the Twins did with Mauer, although I'm not going to say they are quite equal...Mauer's a once a generation hitter....Danks is one of the top 3-4 lefties in all of baseball, but you get the point. And yes, there's a extra 10-20% premium because of his age and being left-handed and not a soft-tosser by any stretch of the imagination when he's on.

 

We have no idea what Danks is looking for at this point. We don't even know if he wants to sign an extension. For all we know he wants to test the free agent market.

[caulfield12]

YET, reading the tea leaves with the "firing" of Boras and the future of his brother in the organization...LV odds would be 60-75% or so that we can keep him in his first or second year of FA, that's my guess, based entirely on conjecture and anecdotal evidence.

 

I just think back to Contreras, Garcia, AJ, Jermaine Dye, Konerko, Buehrle, etc. We find a way to keep the most important players....when it really comes down to it, very few of them can escape KW's BIG BOARD to another organization unless he and JR want to cast them adrift (like Ordonez/Lee/Robin Ventura/Fisk/Durham/Foulke/Valentin/Big Hurt/Crede).

 

Undoubtedly, Jenks is living on borrowed time. So is AJ's White Sox career.

Edited April 26, 2010 by caulfield12

[WCSox]

YET, reading the tea leaves with the "firing" of Boras and the future of his brother in the organization...LV odds would be 60-75% or so that we can keep him in his first or second year of FA, that's my guess, based entirely on conjecture and anecdotal evidence.

 

Didn't Danks reject a deal similar to the one that the Sox gave Floyd? Those "tea leaves" seem to suggest that he wants to test free agency.

 

I'm all for offering him an extension, but there's ample evidence suggesting that he's not looking for one in the foreseeable future.

Edited April 26, 2010 by WCSox

[southsider2k5]

Didn't Danks reject a deal similar to the one that the Sox gave Floyd? Those "tea leaves" seem to suggest that he wants to test free agency.

 

I'm all for offering him an extension, but there's ample evidence suggesting that he's not looking for one in the foreseeable future.

 

Supposedly the exact same deal that Floyd signed was offered to Danks as well.

[Kalapse]

Supposedly the exact same deal that Floyd signed was offered to Danks as well.

I think it's ridiculous to read anything into Danks' rejection of that offer. Floyd signed for 4 years, $15.5M on 2/24/09 and by March 15th Jon Lester (a close comparable to Danks) got 5 years, $30M. After Lester was inked the Sox's offer to Danks looked like a low ball offer. Coming off that '08 season Danks was 2 years younger than Gavin (I suppose he still is), left handed and put up better numbers, there was really no reason for him to take the exact same contract as he was worth a good deal more than that, as Lester proved 3 weeks later.

 

A 23 year old player rejecting an offer worth far less than his closest peer going into year 3 of his major league career doesn't scream "I'm looking to test free agency" to me. It looks like a rational decision and a decent gamble on Danks' part. 13 months later and he's probably looking at at least 270% more guaranteed money.

[caulfield12]

Agreed 100%.

 

You have to consider where Gavin Floyd came from to get that contract.

 

Yes, he got a boatload of money when he was originally drafted so high, but his career was bordering on the abyss. If you have the chance to guarantee the financial future of your entire family, it's hard not to sign that contract, after everthing he'd gone to battling back.

 

When we acquired Floyd, look at Sox message boards, they weren't exactly optimistic and overly hopeful. Everyone knew he had the raw stuff and ability, it was the mental part of the game that was dragging him down.

 

Floyd arguably has the best stuff (overall) on the staff, but Peavy, Danksie and Buehrle are all better PITCHERS.

 

Danks was getting low-balled by KW (just like he has done in the past with Garland, rightfully so), so Danks basically took the risk and called him on it. As someone else pointed out, barring an unforeseen injury, that decision will make him look the opposite of Juan Gonzalez during down the Tigers a decade ago or O-Cab testing Free Agency.

Edited April 26, 2010 by caulfield12

[WCSox]

And despite all of this analysis, we still don't know what Danks would sign for, or if he wants to wait and hit the free agent market.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Danks said way back that he thought very long and hard about taking the Floyd deal but then decided to listen to his agent and pass. Danks has gone on record saying he wants to be here, but it sounds like the Sox are low-balling him. Danks only has two arb years left, so IMO it'll take something like this to get him locked in:

 

2011: $6.5M

2012: $8.5M

2013: $10M (first FA year)

2014: $12M TO, $2M buyout (second FA year)

 

Danks, just by breathing, is going to pretty much guarantee himself $7-8M in arb next year, so if we want a discount on his next two arb years then we need to guarantee him some good money. Something like that above guarantees him $27M and that guarantee might be enough to get him to gamble away an extra several million in arb and potentially quite a bit more than that in two free agent years.

[whitesoxfan101]

A lot, I'd be willing to overpay a little even if I had to. And i'd be thinking about doing it very soon, because I think Danks is going to continue to get better, and thus his pricetag goes up by the day.