perfect article to generate debate about Ozzie Ball

[caulfield12]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...sp&c_id=mlb

 

Interesting stuff.

 

[maggsmaggs]

The biggest problem with our homeruns is that the majority are solo shots. I am not sure the stats behind this, but it sure seems like at least 60% of our homeruns have been solo ones.

[ThunderBolt]

The biggest problem with our homeruns is that the majority are solo shots.

I think this is a symptom of a larger problem with the general construction of this lineup; we have an overwhelming lack of players who can get on-base on a consistent basis.

[joeynach]

I think this is a symptom of a larger problem with the general construction of this lineup; we have an overwhelming lack of players who can get on-base on a consistent basis.

 

This team has some power, its no secret. But we cant play Ozzieball we dont have overwhelmingly consistent batters. We have a lot of batter with high peaks and low valleys. If we had a team of all placido polanco's we could do this but we dont. We dont have a ton of high OBP or high BA guys. We dont have a plethorea of guys that spray the ball around at a high clip either. For Ozzieball to work you would need like Ryan Theriot instead of Alexi, Polanco instead of Tehean, Either/Kemp instead of Quentin, etc. We might have more overall team speed and less lumberjack base cloggers, but we are no where near a lineup that can play ozzieball.

Edited April 26, 2010 by joeynach

[Jordan4life_2007]

As I said in the GT yesterday, the words "Ozzie ball" should be banished forever. We were an "Ozzie ball" team for exactly half a season in 2005 when Podsednik was getting on base at a .380 clip and stealing bases like nobody's business.

[Balta1701]

For Ozzieball to work you would need like Ryan Theriot instead of Alexi, Polanco instead of Tehean, etc.

Huh?

[joeynach]

Huh?

 

Meaning guys who are much more consistent at the plate, higher Batting Averages, and known for spraying the ball all over the park. Alexi and Tehean are perfect examples of guys that overall perform well, but nothing that consistent and have the ability to be hitting .200 for months at a time.

 

[caulfield12]

And I think this would be borne out by a career OPS/OBP comparison with players in our starting line-up over their careers, versus the MLB/AL averages and also our rivals in MINN and DET.

 

You can't argue with the back of Thome's and JD's baseball cards. Andruw Jones, same thing, but that was then, this is now...Kotsay, Vizquel, etc.

 

All of those steals (tied for first with Rays), bunts and homers have gotten us one of the 10 worst records in baseball.

 

That said, there's reason for optimism with Floyd/Peavy rebounding....as I keep saying, it all comes down to AJ/Teahen/Pierre hitting their norms, and then determining WHAT DO WE ACTUALLY HAVE after two inconsistent seasons with CQ and Alexei. Both those guys were borderline superstars two years ago, particularly CQ, but how good are they? What would or could they fetch in trade from another organization?

 

For example, if you're Daniels in TEX, would you trade Josh Hamilton for CQ? Probably not.

 

Both are fascinating because there are so many divergent opinions. Alexei has an amazingly attractive contract, wonderful physical tools, speed, plays a premium position, hits for power...but he's lacking in baseball IQ, has mental lapses and horrible OBP, not unlike Angel Berroa, comparing him as ROY to what he became later.

 

We all know about Quentin.

 

Is AJ going to rebound or is he OLD? Same with Pierre? And Paulie's no spring chicken, either.

 

And what the heck is going on with Beckham? He's gone from Chase Utley Lite to Chris Getz with better defense.

 

I think the pitching will be fine...as Thunderbolt is always saying, we're on a wing and a prayer that Alexei, Quentin and Jones are their "best selves" from seasons past, same with Alex Rios (that's looking better than better for now at least) and that Paulie, AJ and Pierre don't go south simultaneously. Teahen just needs to be a 725+ OPS guy and not hurt us TOO MUCH defensively. In other words, better than Wilson Betemit, Josh Fields, Chris Snopek or Greg Norton.

 

We'd love to have Randa, Uribe, Kouzmanoff, Headley or Herb Milkman Perry numbers out of him though.

 

BUT, not really expecting.

 

 

[maggsmaggs]

Meaning guys who are much more consistent at the plate, higher Batting Averages, and known for spraying the ball all over the park. Alexi and Tehean are perfect examples of guys that overall perform well, but nothing that consistent and have the ability to be hitting .200 for months at a time.

Let's not bash Teahen and lump him with Alexei thus far. Mark is batting .277 with a cool .393 OBP. I guess this is the Moneyball Teahen Billy Beane wanted.

[SoxAce]

I've said this before, I'll agree that I don't see much of the "Ozzie Ball" that I thought we'd see. Guys stealing on good counts where a runner(s) thrives (or more 3-2 less than 2 out), running on more or less contact plays, (alot of them are either from failures of contact, or missing bunts, resulting in CS though), many hit and runs, runners on 3rd and 1st, and not stealing 2B (especially with 2 out to not have the force-out, though when it's 1 out and a guy like Konerko/AJ is batting and you got a guy like Beckham at 1st, it drives me crazy why he isn't stealing to avoid the DP) to maintain a rally, etc.. I'll say this though, I could care less about Guillen's preference to steals than home runs, the long ball is what is winning us these games. A guy like Alexei for example has to get on base more.. you know Alexei.. draw a damn walk this year perhaps? or hit better? to utilize his speed. Teahen can run himself (2 SB), but in his 2 CS, he was running on hit and run counts where Alexei (and I think the other guy was Rios earlier) failed to make contact. Beckham having 1 SB only is not what anyone should see. (and alot of times this season he was on first base when Pierre stole third the few times they've be on the bases together) We'll see though when more guys get on base what Ozzie does since our offense (minus a couple of guys) has been awful.

Edited April 26, 2010 by SoxAce

[caulfield12]

And yeah, Pods/Iguchi has to be replicated by Pierre/Beckham.

 

That's nowhere close to happening. And so that's a BIG reason for optimism, if those guys can get going, along with Paulie/Jonesy/Rios/Quentin/Ramirez....this team could be very very dangerous.

 

It's the rose-colored glasses optimism. On paper, this offense with Jones and Rios as dangerous threats trumps 2005.

 

But they're nowhere close to a 3.61 ERA....Floyd and Peavy have been hot messes and the bullpen pitches great in Carrasco situations and not so well in tie games or when it's +/- one or two runs.

 

But with the exception of Williams, we have the most talent of any bullpen in the majors, IF IF IF Santos is for real and doesn't fall off the Aardsma/MacDougal cliff the first time or so he gets rapped around and gives up some crooked numbers in pressure situations.

[Balta1701]

Meaning guys who are much more consistent at the plate, higher Batting Averages, and known for spraying the ball all over the park. Alexi and Tehean are perfect examples of guys that overall perform well, but nothing that consistent and have the ability to be hitting .200 for months at a time.

Alexei has been in the league 2 years, and has hit .290 and .277 in those 2 years. Theriot is a career .290 hitter. In his first 2 seasons, he hit .328 and .266 consecutively. Theriot's worst average month in his career is Sept./Oct, where he hits .254, while he typically hits 70 points better in April/May.

[caulfield12]

Let's not bash Teahen and lump him with Alexei thus far. Mark is batting .277 with a cool .393 OBP. I guess this is the Moneyball Teahen Billy Beane wanted.

 

It would be ironic...but with Nick Swisher in NY Yankees form, our offense could be much more balanced and end up in the top 5-6-7.

 

Or a healthy Xavier Nady. Or Matsui. Or Thome. Or Dunn. Or Cust. Or Branyan. Or Damon. Or any high power, high K, high OBP LH or switch batter.

[Balta1701]

It would be ironic...but with Nick Swisher in NY Yankees form, our offense could be much more balanced and end up in the top 5-6-7.

 

Or a healthy Xavier Nady. Or Matsui. Or Thome. Or Dunn. Or Cust. Or Branyan. Or Damon. Or any high power, high K, high OBP LH or switch batter.

Swisher's hitting .228 with a .348 OBP in Yankee uniform now.

 

Jack Cust got Cut. And no one claimed him.

 

Branyan has played in 4 games this season.

[caulfield12]

Alexei has been in the league 2 years, and has hit .290 and .277 in those 2 years. Theriot is a career .290 hitter. In his first 2 seasons, he hit .328 and .266 consecutively. Theriot's worst average month in his career is Sept./Oct, where he hits .254, while he typically hits 70 points better in April/May.

 

Perception is more important than reality.

 

And Theriot's a scrappy grinder. Alexei is a "mental midget" who some have described as having ADD/ADHD or a learning disability.

 

But every GM in baseball would take Alexei over Theriot, for sure.

Edited April 26, 2010 by caulfield12

[Jordan4life_2007]

And yeah, Pods/Iguchi has to be replicated by Pierre/Beckham.

 

That's nowhere close to happening. And so that's a BIG reason for optimism, if those guys can get going, along with Paulie/Jonesy/Rios/Quentin/Ramirez....this team could be very very dangerous.

 

It's the rose-colored glasses optimism. On paper, this offense with Jones and Rios as dangerous threats trumps 2005.

 

But they're nowhere close to a 3.61 ERA....Floyd and Peavy have been hot messes and the bullpen pitches great in Carrasco situations and not so well in tie games or when it's +/- one or two runs.

 

But with the exception of Williams, we have the most talent of any bullpen in the majors, IF IF IF Santos is for real and doesn't fall off the Aardsma/MacDougal cliff the first time or so he gets rapped around and gives up some crooked numbers in pressure situations.

 

That would be the Dodgers.

[caulfield12]

Swisher's hitting .228 with a .348 OBP in Yankee uniform now.

 

Jack Cust got Cut. And no one claimed him.

 

Branyan has played in 4 games this season.

 

 

Swisher 2009, please. What players in our starting line-up have a 350+ OBP right now? NOT VERY MANY! Probably Jones, Konerko and MAYBE one more.

 

Cust would get some of Kotsay's AB's, like the Matt Stairs role, what Thome does in MINN now.

 

Branyan was always a streaky (think Richie Sexson) hitter and the back problems, but you'd rather have Kotsay? You're sure?

 

 

[caulfield12]

That would be the Dodgers.

 

With Linebrink's experience as an elite set-up man...Thornton, Putz (if he gets the zip back on his fastball, which will take at least another 2-3 months in all likelihood), Santos, Pena and then Threets (if healthy), I wouldn't trade our mix of experience, youth and raw stuff for the Dodgers' pen.

 

No way.

 

 

Not because I'm a White Sox fan first, just because I think our pen is better. Stick their pen in the AL East and see what happens.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

With Linebrink's experience as an elite set-up man...Thornton, Putz (if he gets the zip back on his fastball, which will take at least another 2-3 months in all likelihood), Santos, Pena and then Threets (if healthy), I wouldn't trade our mix of experience, youth and raw stuff for the Dodgers' pen.

 

No way.

 

 

Not because I'm a White Sox fan first, just because I think our pen is better. Stick their pen in the AL East and see what happens.

 

Jonathan Broxton might be the best non-Rivera closer in baseball. George Sherrill would be closing for at least a dozen other teams. Hong-Chih Kuo when healthy is basically their Matt Thornton (with a little less velocity on his FB). Throw in Belisario and Troncoso and the Dodgers pen is better with fewer question marks.

[CanOfCorn]

Oooohhhh...I see. So because players aren't getting on base, we aren't scoring runs...

 

And I thought it was because they can't hit with RISP...at least that's what I've seen.

[maggsmaggs]

It's scary to think what Juan Pierre could be doing SB-wise with Scotty Pods batting abilities. Juan could be close to 20 SBs.

[southsider2k5]

Oooohhhh...I see. So because players aren't getting on base, we aren't scoring runs...

 

And I thought it was because they can't hit with RISP...at least that's what I've seen.

 

Really its both. We are batting .212 with RISP, which is forth lowest in MLB. We also have 128 ABs with RISP, which is ahead of only Clevelands 125.

[witesoxfan]

Perception is more important than reality.

 

And Theriot's a scrappy grinder. Alexei is a "mental midget" who some have described as having ADD/ADHD or a learning disability.

 

But every GM in baseball would take Alexei over Theriot, for sure.

 

who said that?

[bigruss]

Oooohhhh...I see. So because players aren't getting on base, we aren't scoring runs...

 

And I thought it was because they can't hit with RISP...at least that's what I've seen.

When those two problems are combined your offense will be terrible.

[bmags]

Oooohhhh...I see. So because players aren't getting on base, we aren't scoring runs...

 

And I thought it was because they can't hit with RISP...at least that's what I've seen.

 

 

Well, the thing is...if you have players on base a lot more, you have a lot more chances to get a hit with RISP. I mean, a good average with RISP would be .300, right? So 70% of the time you are failing. And if you have a lot less chances with a runner in scoring position, that 70% seems a lot worse. Kalapse had a great stat that almost seems obvious, but the teams that typically have the highest # of men LOB are usually good offenses in runs scored. It's all about creating a lot of chances in a game. Not executing 100% of the time, because in the MLB that isn't realistic. (or even 50% if that seems too hyperbolic)