A. Gonzalez Update 5/3

[Balta1701]

A Danks deal would be done in the off-season, or could be a deadline deal if we were out of it.

I won't believe that D1 is getting dealt in the offseason until I see it. That'd be KW admitting he didn't think he could win that year.

[fathom]

I won't believe that D1 is getting dealt in the offseason until I see it. That'd be KW admitting he didn't think he could win that year.

 

Agreed, especially if he's far and away the ace of the team, which is looking to be a possibility.

[southsider2k5]

I won't believe that D1 is getting dealt in the offseason until I see it. That'd be KW admitting he didn't think he could win that year.

 

If you think he won't re-sign and you can get something approaching the CC deal, I think he does it in a heartbeat. It buys him some payroll space, plus it gives him a chance to get more young players to subsize the payroll for the biggest ticket items

[WCSox]

But you really think we'll give him a 5/100 deal? With the way attendance looks like, as well as what would be needed to keep Danks around, you're looking at almost 50 million dollars in the core of Peavy/Rios/Gonzalez.

 

This is why the Sox will most likely not trade for/re-sign AGon. They just don't invest that kind of money into one contract. They've never ponied up $70M in a single deal, and $100M+ seems like a pipe dream.

 

[Buehrlesque]

This is why the Sox will most likely not trade for/re-sign AGon. They just don't invest that kind of money into one contract. They've never ponied up $70M in a single deal, and $100M+ seems like a pipe dream.

And I don't think they should either. As it was pointed out in this thread, 1B is one of the easiest positions in MLB, in relative terms, to get relatively inexpensive production. Crippling the payroll with such a huge contract probably isn't the best way to go. On top of that, you have to trade just about literally ALL your useful young talent just for the opportunity to negotiate with Gonzalez (plus 1.5 years, obviously). ...And the Sox, at this point, aren't one bat away from catching the Twins anyway. No thanks. I'd rather see KW get creative somewhere else.

[iamshack]

It will be interesting to see if the Howard contract scares away some potential suitors, at least potential suitors who have the intention of signing AGon for the long term, as it becomes evident the market may support a $25m+ annual salary for him. While I'd love to have a player of his caliber, many of you have pointed out (in my view very accurately) that the production above what a league average 1b provides simply isn't worth taking on that kind of contract.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

And I don't think they should either. As it was pointed out in this thread, 1B is one of the easiest positions in MLB, in relative terms, to get relatively inexpensive production. Crippling the payroll with such a huge contract probably isn't the best way to go. On top of that, you have to trade just about literally ALL your useful young talent just for the opportunity to negotiate with Gonzalez (plus 1.5 years, obviously). ...And the Sox, at this point, aren't one bat away from catching the Twins anyway. No thanks. I'd rather see KW get creative somewhere else.

1B isn't easy to fill with a monster like Gonzalez, no position is. That's like saying that since SS is a harder position to fill with offensive talent, a player like Elvis Andrus is more important than someone like Prince Fielder. This logic is so faulty it's insane, yet people constantly repeat it over and over regarding Gonzalez.

 

Agree that crippling the payroll is a bad thing, but let's spend our money on good players first and then see what happens. There was nothing wrong with the Rios claim because he has legitimate, 5-tool, All-Star type ability. There was nothing wrong with picking up Peavy for table scraps because, although he is struggling, he has been one of the best SP in baseball during his career, and he is young. Wasting money however on Mark Teahen and Juan Pierre - guaranteeing them money for no f***ing reason when they haven't proven s*** - is extremely hurtful. Imagine if we'd taken that extra cash and, if nothing else, added it an extension offer for Danks or Q, who actually have proven themselves here. But the point is, giving out a fat deal to Gonzalez presents a much smaller risk IMO, because the quality of player is so far superior it is not even funny. If Gonzalez were extended by us at a huge cost, then as long as we didn't give him a big NTC that kept him away from the big money teams, we'd still be able to dump his contract is we had to. OTOH, nobody is going to want that garbage Pierre and Teahen.

 

Young talent makes people here stupid. It's one thing to make a s***ty trade and give up a young player for very little in return, and it's yet another to overrate the s*** out of everybody and start pulling back names when a franchise piece like Adrian Gonzalez is on the table. Everyone we have can go. I'll bet everything in this world that nobody in our entire system at any level, nor anybody who will be in our system for the next 5 years, will ever become as productive an offensive force as Adrian Gonzalez is right now. And as far as the pitching goes, lol. Yeah, right. Since when did we develop pitching?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

It will be interesting to see if the Howard contract scares away some potential suitors, at least potential suitors who have the intention of signing AGon for the long term, as it becomes evident the market may support a $25m+ annual salary for him. While I'd love to have a player of his caliber, many of you have pointed out (in my view very accurately) that the production above what a league average 1b provides simply isn't worth taking on that kind of contract.

Howard's contract shouldn't scare off anyone. That was a bad, bad deal for the Phillies who paid a price that nobody else could have afforded. I mean, the Yankees have Tex. The Angels have Kendry. The Dodgers can't buy anyone given the ownership situation. The Cubs are going to be paying off bad deals for the next several years. Who is left? The Red Sox? Why in the hell would they bid against themselves? They may spend a lot of money, but they're not stupid, because in an AGon-Howard-Prince-Pujols FA market, guess who ranks No. 4?

[iamshack]

1B isn't easy to fill with a monster like Gonzalez, no position is. That's like saying that since SS is a harder position to fill with offensive talent, a player like Elvis Andrus is more important than someone like Prince Fielder. This logic is so faulty it's insane, yet people constantly repeat it over and over regarding Gonzalez.

 

Agree that crippling the payroll is a bad thing, but let's spend our money on good players first and then see what happens. There was nothing wrong with the Rios claim because he has legitimate, 5-tool, All-Star type ability. There was nothing wrong with picking up Peavy for table scraps because, although he is struggling, he has been one of the best SP in baseball during his career, and he is young. Wasting money however on Mark Teahen and Juan Pierre - guaranteeing them money for no f***ing reason when they haven't proven s*** - is extremely hurtful. Imagine if we'd taken that extra cash and, if nothing else, added it an extension offer for Danks or Q, who actually have proven themselves here. But the point is, giving out a fat deal to Gonzalez presents a much smaller risk IMO, because the quality of player is so far superior it is not even funny. If Gonzalez were extended by us at a huge cost, then as long as we didn't give him a big NTC that kept him away from the big money teams, we'd still be able to dump his contract is we had to. OTOH, nobody is going to want that garbage Pierre and Teahen.

 

Young talent makes people here stupid. It's one thing to make a s***ty trade and give up a young player for very little in return, and it's yet another to overrate the s*** out of everybody and start pulling back names when a franchise piece like Adrian Gonzalez is on the table. Everyone we have can go. I'll bet everything in this world that nobody in our entire system at any level, nor anybody who will be in our system for the next 5 years, will ever become as productive an offensive force as Adrian Gonzalez is right now. And as far as the pitching goes, lol. Yeah, right. Since when did we develop pitching?

I don't think it's the players people are worried about, as much as the money required to keep the guy here long-term. The young players only become an issue inasmuch as you must rely on them more if you do ink Gonzo to a huge contract because you then have 3 players eating 50% of your payroll. Creating a competitive team with the remaining 22 roster spots requires a few young productive players, of which we may not have many left after what it will cost in personnel to acquire Gonzo.

Edited May 2, 2010 by iamshack

[iamshack]

Howard's contract shouldn't scare off anyone. That was a bad, bad deal for the Phillies who paid a price that nobody else could have afforded. I mean, the Yankees have Tex. The Angels have Kendry. The Dodgers can't buy anyone given the ownership situation. The Cubs are going to be paying off bad deals for the next several years. Who is left? The Red Sox? Why in the hell would they bid against themselves? They may spend a lot of money, but they're not stupid, because in an AGon-Howard-Prince-Pujols FA market, guess who ranks No. 4?

Unfortunately, it's going to be the starting point of negotiations in the contract for the other three players you listed.

[Jordan4life_2007]

1B isn't easy to fill with a monster like Gonzalez, no position is. That's like saying that since SS is a harder position to fill with offensive talent, a player like Elvis Andrus is more important than someone like Prince Fielder. This logic is so faulty it's insane, yet people constantly repeat it over and over regarding Gonzalez.

 

Agree that crippling the payroll is a bad thing, but let's spend our money on good players first and then see what happens. There was nothing wrong with the Rios claim because he has legitimate, 5-tool, All-Star type ability. There was nothing wrong with picking up Peavy for table scraps because, although he is struggling, he has been one of the best SP in baseball during his career, and he is young. Wasting money however on Mark Teahen and Juan Pierre - guaranteeing them money for no f***ing reason when they haven't proven s*** - is extremely hurtful. Imagine if we'd taken that extra cash and, if nothing else, added it an extension offer for Danks or Q, who actually have proven themselves here. But the point is, giving out a fat deal to Gonzalez presents a much smaller risk IMO, because the quality of player is so far superior it is not even funny. If Gonzalez were extended by us at a huge cost, then as long as we didn't give him a big NTC that kept him away from the big money teams, we'd still be able to dump his contract is we had to. OTOH, nobody is going to want that garbage Pierre and Teahen.

 

Young talent makes people here stupid. It's one thing to make a s***ty trade and give up a young player for very little in return, and it's yet another to overrate the s*** out of everybody and start pulling back names when a franchise piece like Adrian Gonzalez is on the table. Everyone we have can go. I'll bet everything in this world that nobody in our entire system at any level, nor anybody who will be in our system for the next 5 years, will ever become as productive an offensive force as Adrian Gonzalez is right now. And as far as the pitching goes, lol. Yeah, right. Since when did we develop pitching?

 

This coming from the same guy that had an aneurysm that lasted 2 months when the great Brandon Allen was traded. lol.

Edited May 2, 2010 by Jordan4life

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I don't think it's the players people are worried about, as much as the money required to keep the guy here long-term. The young players only become an issue inasmuch as you must rely on them more if you do ink Gonzo to a huge trade because you then have 3 players eating 50% of your payroll. Creating a competitive team with the remaining 22 roster spots requires a few young productive players, of which we may not have many left after what it will cost in personnel to acquire Gonzo.

I see the idea here, but Adrian isn't just some guy who is one of 25 players on the team. He is basically *the* team, the sole true offensive superstar who the entire lineup is built around. Signing Adrian means we need to find bargains elsewhere on offense, which shouldn't be a huge issue, especially given what straight-up DH's are going for these days. We can fill out a team around a star like that as long as we don't keep picking up more Linebrinks and Teahens and Pierres, and instead look to fill those holes with bargain vets or young pre-arb players.

 

BTW, just think about what Gonzalez does for this offense. He single-handedly changes everything because he essentially takes Pierre out and puts him on the bench where he belongs.

 

R Rios CF

R Beckham 2B

L Gonzalez 1B

R Konerko DH

R Jones RF

R Quentin LF

L Pierzynski C

R Ramirez SS

L Teahen 3B

 

Look at that lineup and, once AJ and Beckham get back to normal, suddenly the black hole of suck all but disappears.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

This coming from the same guy that had an aneurysm that lasted 2 months when the great Brandon Allen was traded. lol.

I was pissed because we got SoxTalk favorite Tony Pena in return. Arb-eligible middle relievers with pretty big control problems who can only pitch to one side of the plate aren't worth what we paid IMO, although admittedly Pena *does* have a lot more talent than he has shown.

[iamshack]

I see the idea here, but Adrian isn't just some guy who is one of 25 players on the team. He is basically *the* team, the sole true offensive superstar who the entire lineup is built around. Signing Adrian means we need to find bargains elsewhere on offense, which shouldn't be a huge issue, especially given what straight-up DH's are going for these days. We can fill out a team around a star like that as long as we don't keep picking up more Linebrinks and Teahens and Pierres, and instead look to fill those holes with bargain vets or young pre-arb players.

 

BTW, just think about what Gonzalez does for this offense. He single-handedly changes everything because he essentially takes Pierre out and puts him on the bench where he belongs.

 

R Rios CF

R Beckham 2B

L Gonzalez 1B

R Konerko DH

R Jones RF

R Quentin LF

L Pierzynski C

R Ramirez SS

L Teahen 3B

 

Look at that lineup and, once AJ and Beckham get back to normal, suddenly the black hole of suck all but disappears.

I dunno man, Paulie and Andruw are performing well-above what can be expected of them right now...I mean Paulie is basically doing what we would expect from Adrian and our offense is still brutal right now. Once those two come down to earth a bit, adding a guy like Adrian wouldn't be a whole lot different than what we have going now, IMO. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him, but one guy an offense does not make. We have two 1.1 OPS players right now, and we still can't score.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Unfortunately, it's going to be the starting point of negotiations in the contract for the other three players you listed.

I agree, however what I guess I'm trying to say is that Howard would have been the one left to the last bidder, and that last bidder wouldn't have had to fork over $25M per. The Phillies overpaid, and really, I don't think Howard's deal is the main thing to consider. I think ARod's deal is going to set the market for Pujols, and then Pujols will set the market for everyone else. Howard should have been the 4th hottest girl at the party, not a market setter.

[iamshack]

I agree, however what I guess I'm trying to say is that Howard would have been the one left to the last bidder, and that last bidder wouldn't have had to fork over $25M per. The Phillies overpaid, and really, I don't think Howard's deal is the main thing to consider. I think ARod's deal is going to set the market for Pujols, and then Pujols will set the market for everyone else. Howard should have been the 4th hottest girl at the party, not a market setter.

Well, unfortunately, the only way AGon hits the open market is if the team that trades for him isn't ponying-up the dough. Otherwise, that team is going to have to use the $25m annually as a baseline from which to work.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I dunno man, Paulie and Andruw are performing well-above what can be expected of them right now...I mean Paulie is basically doing what we would expect from Adrian and our offense is still brutal right now. Once those two come down to earth a bit, adding a guy like Adrian wouldn't be a whole lot different than what we have going now, IMO. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him, but one guy an offense does not make. We have two 1.1 OPS players right now, and we still can't score.

Agree with this too, that Jones may be over his head (although he really really looks good) and Paulie will certainly come down. But I'm factoring in Alexei, Beckham, and AJ playing better too, which IMO they will. It's mainly Teahen and Pierre that makes us suck, and swapping out our worst offensive player in Pierre for an elite offensive LH dynamo kind of changes the picture around a bit, plus it hopefully creates a chain of events that has Teahen taking the pressure off and performing well out of the 9 hole.

[Quin]

I dunno man, Paulie and Andruw are performing well-above what can be expected of them right now...I mean Paulie is basically doing what we would expect from Adrian and our offense is still brutal right now. Once those two come down to earth a bit, adding a guy like Adrian wouldn't be a whole lot different than what we have going now, IMO. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him, but one guy an offense does not make. We have two 1.1 OPS players right now, and we still can't score.

 

Now, imagine having two Paulies.

 

Now add resurgent Andruw and Rios.

 

Alexei heats up with the weather.

 

Gordon has had these huge slumps before, he'll break out of it.

 

Suddenly, the only 3 question marks become AJ, who should bust out of it, Teahen who won't have to be the lefty RBI bat, and Quentin who is just, blech.

[Balta1701]

Gordon has had these huge slumps before, he'll break out of it.

Really? He looked this amateurish for this long last year? He struggled for about -0 days or so, 35 at bats, last year before picking it up. When did he slump for a month in his baseball career? Were his mechanics anywhere near this out of whack?

[iamshack]

Agree with this too, that Jones may be over his head (although he really really looks good) and Paulie will certainly come down. But I'm factoring in Alexei, Beckham, and AJ playing better too, which IMO they will. It's mainly Teahen and Pierre that makes us suck, and swapping out our worst offensive player in Pierre for an elite offensive LH dynamo kind of changes the picture around a bit, plus it hopefully creates a chain of events that has Teahen taking the pressure off and performing well out of the 9 hole.

Yeah, that's true, although Ozzie said today that for us to win, we're going to have to have Pierre performing well in the leadoff spot. He doesn't seem to willing to take him out of the lineup. With our luck, we'd get AGon, and Ozzie would platoon him and Paulie and platoon Jones and Quentin in right...

[Quin]

Really? He looked this amateurish for this long last year? He struggled for about -0 days or so, 35 at bats, last year before picking it up. When did he slump for a month in his baseball career? Were his mechanics anywhere near this out of whack?

 

Didn't he have a rather long slump right after he got on fire for a while?

 

Actually, wasn't it once he moved to the 2-hole?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Agree with this too, that Jones may be over his head (although he really really looks good) and Paulie will certainly come down. But I'm factoring in Alexei, Beckham, and AJ playing better too, which IMO they will. It's mainly Teahen and Pierre that makes us suck, and swapping out our worst offensive player in Pierre for an elite offensive LH dynamo kind of changes the picture around a bit, plus it hopefully creates a chain of events that has Teahen taking the pressure off and performing well out of the 9 hole.

 

No, it's mainly Pierre, Teahen (who hasn't been anywhere near as bad as you're making him), Beckham, CQ, AJ, 'Lexi, Peavy, Buehrle, Linebrink, Williams, ect. I have no idea why you're singling out Pierre and Teahen. You've somehow convinced yourself that what they're currently being paid is crippling the payroll.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

No, it's mainly Pierre, Teahen (who hasn't been anywhere near as bad as you're making him), Beckham, CQ, AJ, 'Lexi, Peavy, Buehrle, Linebrink, Williams, ect. I have no idea why you're singling out Pierre and Teahen. You've somehow convinced yourself that what they're currently being paid is crippling the payroll.

And of that list I see two bench players, a bunch of guys who are going to play better, one bad contract reliever, and a guy who will be in Charlotte by the end of the week. I'm counting on those two bench players playing like the bench players they are.

 

The crippling the payroll part: go look at their contracts and see what we're paying them for the next 2-3 years. Bench players with minimal upsides getting paid like starters hurts flexibility a lot more than paying a legitimate superstar market value. If the difference between being able to afford Gonzalez and not being able to afford Gonzalez is the amount we're paying Pierre in 2011 or Teahen in 2011 or 2012, and if those players are playing at a level where we could replace or nearly replace them at the league minimum, then we're in a bad spot.

 

Edit: And BTW, my point is about not continuing to do these things. Adrian would be cheap through 2011 so only Teahen's deal could potentially hurt us there, but the point was that those players I named (Pierre, Teahen, Linebrink) aren't movable, therefore they hurt flexibility much more than a talented player you could simply dump if you had to.

Edited May 2, 2010 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[iamshack]

And of that list I see two bench players, a bunch of guys who are going to play better, one bad contract reliever, and a guy who will be in Charlotte by the end of the week. I'm counting on those two bench players playing like the bench players they are.

 

The crippling the payroll part: go look at their contracts and see what we're paying them for the next 2-3 years. Bench players with minimal upsides getting paid like starters hurts flexibility a lot more than paying a legitimate superstar market value. If the difference between being able to afford Gonzalez and not being able to afford Gonzalez is the amount we're paying Pierre in 2011 or Teahen in 2011 or 2012, and if those players are playing at a level where we could replace or nearly replace them at the league minimum, then we're in a bad spot.

I guarantee you Pierre will play better.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I guarantee you Pierre will play better.

I hope you're right, but I'm expecting an average below .275, and OBP near .330 or below, zero power, and nothing but 0-fers when the lineup turns over with RISP. IMO Juan is playing in the wrong park and in the wrong league, and I'll be the first to admit it if I'm wrong.