The Month of May

[hogan873]

The Sox play 26 games between today and the end of the month. Unfortunately, only 2 against the Twins and 2 against the Tigers. Since the Twins and Tigers are the two teams the Sox are "chasing", what must the Sox do this month in order to stay in the hunt?

 

This 7 game homestand starting tonight is huge. They almost have to take at least 5 of 7. After that it's a strange schedule with a day off, 2 at MIN, a day off, 3 in KC, and 2 in DET. I would think the 2 in MIN and 2 in DET are almost must wins (at least don't get swept!).

 

If the Sox have an abysmal May, it would most likely be time to call it and start looking for trades. But what must the Sox do, how many games must they win in May to keep their hopes alive? Considering the lack of match-ups with MIN and DET, they truly have their destiny in their hands.

 

Thoughts?

[daggins]

Predictions:

 

15-11

Pitching is better, Buehrle and Garcia continue to struggle

Offense remains really bad but Beckham and AJ bounce back. PK cools off a bit but finishes May with 19 dingers

Randy Goes to Charlotte, pen remains decent.

[Balta1701]

The Sox are 6 games out right now.

 

If the Sox want to be competitive in this division...they can't have that gap expand. They can make up that gap later in the season. If they end May 6 games out, that means they treaded water with respect to the Tigers and Twins. If they lose serious ground, then they'd be talking about being 8 or more back on Memorial day. That's getting into "this would take an historic comeback" territory.

 

Of course, gaining ground would be ideal. I'm only answering...what do we need to do to keep from saying "screw it" to the season.

 

Also worth noting for its importance...if Mauer is out for a significant amount of time this month, then being only 6 back of the Twins would be troublesome. If they have to play 2/3 of the month without Mauer, and the Sox gain no ground on them, then they're only hanging in there by default.

[hogan873]

Going 16-10 would put the Sox just over .500, and I think that's what they need to do. I agree with the post about Mauer. The Twins are not as good without him, and should be more beatable...by the Sox and others. I would think ending the month less than 5 games out would be okay. Being less than 3 games out would be great, especially considering the state they are in now.

 

I am concerned, though, if the hitting doesn't improve...and quick.

Edited May 3, 2010 by hogan873

[jeffro2525]

It ALL hinges on this homestand. I believe that JUST ONE sparkling pitching performance will be contageous (that means you Jake). If Jake goes out there and pitches 8 or 9 innings giving up little/nothing and strikes out some guys tonight, I really think it sparks this team.

 

I think winning tonight is important, but HOW we win is important as well. If we're down like 6-3 and come back on their terrible bullpen, I still don't think it does much for us. We need to start winning with pitching. The games we have been winning this year have been most 7-6 type games like we saw the other day. We're not gonna win like that very often (and we haven't). We need to start winning 4-2, 3-1 type games. The starting pitching HAS to step up.

[WCSox]

I agree that getting back to .500 is a reasonable goal. If they can do that, the momentum could carry them into contention.

 

If the Sox are still under .500 two months from now, guys like AJ and Jenks will be on the trading block.

 

[LittleHurt05]

Starting with this homestand, they need to go at least 5-2. If you are to be considered a real contender, KC & TOR are teams that you need to beat, especially at home. Win these series, and gain some momentum heading into Target Field.

[BigSqwert]

We will go 20-6 in May starting with tonight's no hitter from Peavy.

[Y2HH]

We will go 20-6 in May starting with tonight's no hitter from Peavy.

 

You are very optimistic.

 

I hope you are right, too.

[hogan873]

We will go 20-6 in May starting with tonight's no hitter from Peavy.

Why not a perfect game?

[jphat007]

We need to go take out the legs and arms of all the Twins and Tigers players. Unfortunately there is not just one good team ahead of us, there are two. The Tigers have an incredible offense and really really good bullpen. The Twins ahve had great starting pitching and great offense. Meanwhile, we don't have much of anything. So in order for us to stay in contention, we're going to have to get better in all three phases of the game and hope the Tiggers and Twins play significantly worse.

[Balta1701]

The Tigers have an incredible offense and really really good bullpen. The Twins ahve had great starting pitching and great offense.

The Twins have actually scored more runs on the season than the Tigers. Tigers are 4th in the AL, just ahead of Toronto.

[jphat007]

The Twins have actually scored more runs on the season than the Tigers. Tigers are 4th in the AL, just ahead of Toronto.

 

So switch the words incredible and great

[The Ginger Kid]

Get hot and stay hot and the standings will undergo a remarkable transformation. They've had their s***ty month and they don't get another one, not if they want to contend. I say 4 games out by June 1st, 2 games out by the break in July.

[jeffro2525]

We have an advantage in that if we can just stay afloat for another month or two Kenny won't be able to help himself...He'll bring in a big bat or another Pitcher if thats what we need.

[SouthsideDon48]

The Sox play 26 games between today and the end of the month. Unfortunately, only 2 against the Twins and 2 against the Tigers. Since the Twins and Tigers are the two teams the Sox are "chasing", what must the Sox do this month in order to stay in the hunt?

 

This 7 game homestand starting tonight is huge. They almost have to take at least 5 of 7. After that it's a strange schedule with a day off, 2 at MIN, a day off, 3 in KC, and 2 in DET. I would think the 2 in MIN and 2 in DET are almost must wins (at least don't get swept!).

 

If the Sox have an abysmal May, it would most likely be time to call it and start looking for trades. But what must the Sox do, how many games must they win in May to keep their hopes alive? Considering the lack of match-ups with MIN and DET, they truly have their destiny in their hands.

 

Thoughts?

Here's what I think: Even though the Sox are doing very bad, they are still only 5 or 6 games back. If they can stay within 5 or 6 games back long enough for the team to come around and start clicking on all cylinders for a winning streak, then they can still be in the chase.

 

In fact, if they're only 5 or 6 games back, they are still theoretically in the chase,... as well as the Royals, though.

 

I'm willing to wait until the Sox are clearly out of it, and games become totally meaningless like in 2007. I'm willing to wait until the Sox get 20 games back because at that point it's "f*ck it" and time to have a firesale.

 

So yea: If by the last week of July before the trade deadline, if the Sox are still 5 games back, keep the team intact. But if they're 20 games back, heads gotta roll.

[greg775]

What the Sox need to do is have Peavy get his head out and start by blowing away a horrific KC team tonight.

The starting pitching simply has to do what everybody felt it would do ... be one of the best fivesomes in baseball.

The offense is putrid, but it has had nights where it has scored some runs and even scored some runs late.

It's all about the starting rotation.

 

The team has to start winning some series. Have we still won just one series?

[caulfield12]

What the Sox need to do is have Peavy get his head out and start by blowing away a horrific KC team tonight.

The starting pitching simply has to do what everybody felt it would do ... be one of the best fivesomes in baseball.

The offense is putrid, but it has had nights where it has scored some runs and even scored some runs late.

It's all about the starting rotation.

 

The team has to start winning some series. Have we still won just one series?

 

 

Yep. And a 2-2 split with the Blue Jays. 3-0 sweep of the Mariners was our only clear victory.

Edited May 3, 2010 by caulfield12

[knightni]

Win

[chw42]

I say 17-11, 15-10 the rest of the way.

 

They'll be a game over come June.

[ScottyDo]

Now, I'm not a huge believer in BABIP for various reasons, but....

 

They need to have a BABIP over ML-worst .226. I mean that's just an insanely low number, and indicates to me that our offense is not as bad as it looks.

 

Sticking with the luck theme, the Tigers need to not have a ML-leading .332 BABIP. That would be nice.

[Greg Hibbard]

Most important: at least splitting those two game series with each of the two teams ahead of them, because each game has an effective two game swing

 

2nd most important: at least staying within 5-6 games of the leaders

 

3rd most important: at least staying within a couple to a few games below .500

 

My own opinion: this 14 game stretch could completely define the season if it's either 9-5 or better or 5-9 or worse.

[BFirebird]

Now, I'm not a huge believer in BABIP for various reasons, but....

 

They need to have a BABIP over ML-worst .226. I mean that's just an insanely low number, and indicates to me that our offense is not as bad as it looks.

 

Sticking with the luck theme, the Tigers need to not have a ML-leading .332 BABIP. That would be nice.

Austin Jackson has to be leading the charge for them on that. I believe I read he has struck out 1/3 of the time but is still hitting like .330-something. That is insane. Also his line drive rate was something insane as well. Damn...now I have to find the article.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a...eeds-to-adjust/

 

It is from April 27th...so the numbers have adjusted a little, but yeah:

 

"Steve Goldman and Rob Neyer discussed Jackson recently, noting the obvious: no one can sustain a .520 BABIP and a 31.9 percent line drive rate. As the latter falls back into a normal range so will the former. This hurts a player like Jackson even more, because he strikes out at a tremendous rate. In his 86 plate appearances to date he has struck out 32 times, or in 38.6 percent of his PA. We can expect that number to decline, too. But will it be to an extent that it can keep up with his declining BABIP?"

 

So yeah...Tigers offense will come back to earth a little.